Michigan Consumer Sentiment, the SP 500, and Gold

U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Drops to 69.6 This Month
By Courtney Schlisserman

Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers fell more than expected this month, reaching a 16-year low, as the labor market cooled.

The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment decreased to 69.6 from 78.4 in January, the lowest since February 1992.

The first drop in employment in more than four years and higher gasoline prices are causing Americans to take a dimmer view of the economy and their financial situation. That may reduce consumer spending, which has already has slowed in recent months.


The first chart compares the SP 500 and Michigan Consumer Sentiment. There is a pronounced divergence between the stock market and Consumer Sentiment.

The second chart adds the SP 500 as deflated by gold, which shows a remarkable coincidence with the Consumer Sentiment.

One can only wonder.

SP 500 Bear Market Update: This *Could* Leave a Mark

Most good people find it hard to imagine that the Wall Street banks and beltway politicos might be manipulating the markets and misleading public perceptions of the true state of the economy. Those actions would put the good of the people and fiduciary duty aside, even if it might delay an economic dislocation, while special interest groups and insiders take the necessary actions not only to save themselves, but to a reap immense personal fortunes from the public catastophe which they themselves caused.

We don't. But let's see what happens.

Hint: "As a result of the war, corporations have been enthroned and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money power of the country will endeavour to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the people until all wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed." Abraham Lincoln, 1865

Cf: What Happened In the Last Bear Market and Recession?

Iran to Launch Oil and Gas exchange on February 27

TEHRAN, February 13 (RIA Novosti) - Iran will launch a commodities exchange for oil, petrochemicals and natural gas on February 27, the Islamic Republic's oil minister said on Wednesday.

Gholam-Hossein Nozari told Iran's Press TV satellite channel the opening ceremony of the Oil Bourse would be attended by Minister of Economy and Financial Affairs Davoud Danesh Jaafari, who will head the bourse.

He said earlier the Oil Bourse will be located on the Persian Gulf island of Kish and that all financial settlements will be made in Iran's national currency, the rial.

The minister said his country's oil revenue will reach $63 billion by the end of this Iranian year, which ends on March 20.

He said oil sales reached $55 billion in the first 11 months of the year, and that "if crude prices stand at the current level, next year's oil revenues will be the same as this year."

Nozari announced last week that Iran's crude oil production had reached 4.184 million barrels per day, the highest level since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

The Worst is Just Beginning

Here's an important message from Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson.

Reporter: "Sir, is the worst over? Will 2008 have fewer foreclosures ... "
Paulson: "... in terms of sub-prime and the resets, the worst isn't over, the worst is just beginning. We ALL know that."

Link to the Video Replay

The Wall Street Journal also chimed in with its own bit of cheer.

"Throughout most of the 80s and 90s they ranged between six and seven times incomes.

Just to get down to seven times incomes, prices would have to fall 37% tomorrow."

WSJ: Homes Remain 'Wildly Overvalued' in Bubble Regions