03 March 2011

SP 500 and NDX March Futures Daily Charts



Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow.

This will end badly, but it is hard to say when.

Le Market c'est moi, says Zimbabwe Ben. And we believe it.





Reform, American Style



02 March 2011

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts: JPM Stands for Delivery of Almost a Million Tons of Sugar



"A JPMorgan Chase & Co. unit took delivery of almost 1 million metric tons of raw sugar, the most for the commodity since 2009, to settle the expiring March futures contract in New York. JPMorgan Futures accepted delivery on 18,748 sugar contracts, or the equivalent of 952,398 tons, ICE Futures U.S. said yesterday on its website. That represents 9.2 percent of the current year’s U.S. consumption as estimated by the government. Prices climbed to the highest level in almost three weeks in New York trading today."

J. P. Morgan Takes Delivery of Almost 1 Million Tons of Sugar

I said cream, no sugar, Blythe. And use the silver service next time please. Oh sorry, I forgot you have sold it, and several times over.

Seriously, is this one of those trading positions one occasionally has that turns into an investment? Or is JPM just doing the buying for Krispy Kreme, Coca-Cola, et al. It could have been a legitimate hedging outcome as agent. I would hope it is not hoarding in times of shortage, or even worse, to promote food shortages.

Not so with silver I think, where they sell what they do not have, unless some of the miners have lost their minds, and are likely to be lynched by their shareholders.

Gold and silver were spiking higher today, but managed to get pushed down into the close for modest gains. I think they might be coiling for a move through the overhead resistance that is holding them back a little here.

For as low as the VIX remains, these markets seem to be on a knife edge. Seems like only Benny is holding the line, casting his paper upon troubled waters.

Watch for the action on Friday with Non Farm Payrolls and a potentially shaky weekend in the Middle East, and maybe even in the Midwest.

I was wondering if the some of the commentators on Bloomberg TV today snorting some of that JPM sugar for lunch. Certainly enjoying the high life.

I could be wrong, but this summer looks like it might be shaping up for another rough time in the markets.


SP 500 and NDX March Futures Daily Charts


Excuse me, I am still trying to regain my composure. A fund manager on Bloomberg named Matt just said that high oil prices will be no problem, because the US economy is booming, and everyone will just go out and buy new, more fuel efficient, cars. He said he went to the mall in Chicago and it was packed, and the best deal there was the $6 valet parking at Nordstrom's.

I wonder how many moons revolve around his planet. Maybe he is right. How does that track with your experience? Perhaps I should run a poll for the Yanks.

See, no problem. Buy stocks. Get them while they're hot.

I am a little more of the camp that thinks that unless the Fed can trigger a self-sustaining inflation, as soon as Benny and his Merry Pranksters stop buying through QEn, stocks and bonds will take a dive, because they and their cronies are the only ones buying this market.

But that's just my opinion and I could be wrong.  Let's see if Benny can blow another bubble.  Judging by some of the internet wunderkinds' valuations, he might be on his way. Tweet your magic twanger, Ben.

I am getting a few more emails taking me to task for being 'negative' and 'bitter' and being a spoilsport for the new good times.

I don't get around much anymore. Maybe everything is coming up roses in the US and I just don't see it. But it doesn't appear yet in any metrics that I watch closely and in which I have any confidence.

I have to admit that Benny shook me up a bit today in his lame testimony before the Congress. The less likely outcomes of deflation and hyperinflation just went up several notches in my book, especially on the inflationary side. He seems in denial to me, and kind of nervy.