The attention now shifts a bit to silver from the standpoint of the Comex technicals.
July through October could become a bit like Mr. Toad's Wild Ride for the precious metals.
30 June 2014
Comex Silver Stockpiles at the End of 2Q 2014 - Coins 'N Things
As you know July is an active month for silver futures contracts at the Comex.
On paper at least, the Comex warehouses seem to be well stocked, with two relative newcomers CNT and JPM having built up some significant stockpiles. I was particularly taken with CNT.
I have broken out the registered (deliverable) from the total inventory in the second chart to show that while there is quite a bit of inventory on hand, only a modest portion of that is 'for sale' at these current prices. And a big chunk of that is held at CNT, a privately held family business in Massachusetts that grew from a single coin shop called Coins 'N Things.
CNT has become the largest wholesaler of gold and silver to the US government and has become a major reseller of American Silver Eagles. The company does not report its numbers and has no outside investors.
I wonder if they are subject to regulatory oversight or independent audits of any sort. Presumable Comex applies the same blanket disavowal of liability to silver as they do to gold in their authorized warehouses.
I don't think it is an overstatement to say that the near term deliverable silver market at the Comex is systemically dependent on CNT. An unfortunate event or a misstep at that relatively small company, or a major failure by one of their counterparties, would quite possibly trigger a silver market dislocation of sorts. And I would not rule out a declaration of force majeure.
This is not to say that it will happen, but rather that from a systems perspective that this is a major single point of potential failure with significant cascading results. It points to a locus of potential fragility.
These graphs are from the Data Wrangler from Down Under, Nick Laird at Sharelynx.com.
27 June 2014
Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Non-Farm Payrolls Next Week
Over 300,000 ounces of gold were stopped in contracts for the month on the Comex. But as you can see from the warehouse reports, it really did not go anywhere. The Comex is like a Tussauds Wax Museum tableau of what a market looks like.
Non-Farm payrolls will be coming next Thursday as Friday is a national holiday in the States.
I include a weekly chart of SLW just to show the nicely formed symmetrical triangle formation. It is a bit neater than the weekly silver chart itself. July is an active month for silver, so let's see if we get any resolutions in what is likely to be a quiet trading week.
If we get any significant chart activity I will explicate it more fully then. Otherwise the games look like they will continue, until they can no longer do so.
Have a pleasant weekend everyone.
SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Holiday Shortened Week Packed with Economic News
There were just too many 'let them eat cake' moments on financial TV to recount this week.
So many smart people, feigning ignorance. Or at least one might presume they don't know. The discussion of world economic events such as the Argentine debt situation is bad enough and borderline delusional, but the discussion of median wages and The Recovery™ is just appalling.
The best part of this week is that it is over and done.
Next week will be shortened in the US for the national holiday on the 4th of July.
And as all new months bring there will be the June Non-Farm Payrolls report on Thursday. There will actually be quite a bit of data coming out next week. And many will be taking off early, so the trading desks may be staffed by underlings, interns, and algos.
Have a pleasant weekend. See you at the Hamptons. (not).
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