15 July 2014

BRICS Launc $100 Billion Development Bank and Currency Reserve Pool


And so it begins.
 
The big changes happen slowly.

I expect the BRICS to continue 'tinkering' with the meaning of reserve currency in the global financial system.

BRICS set up Bank to Counter Western hold on Global Finances
By Alonso Soto and Anthony Boadle
FORTALEZA Brazil
Wed Jul 16, 2014 2:56am IST

(Reuters) - Leaders of the BRICS emerging market nations launched a $100-billion development bank and a currency reserve pool on Tuesday in their first concrete step toward reshaping the Western-dominated international financial system.

The bank aimed at funding infrastructure projects in developing nations will be based in Shanghai and India will preside over its operations for the first five years, followed by Brazil and then Russia, leaders of the five-nation group announced at a summit.

They also set up a $100 billion currency reserves pool to help countries forestall short-term liquidity pressures.

The long-awaited bank is the first major achievement of the BRICS countries since they got together in 2009 to press for a bigger say in the global financial order created by Western powers after World War II.

The BRICS were prompted to seek coordinated action following an exodus of capital from emerging markets last year, triggered by the scaling back of U.S. monetary stimulus. The new bank reflects the growing influence of the BRICS, which account for almost half the world's population and about one fifth of global economic output. The bank will start with a subscribed capital of $50 billion divided equally between its five founders, with an initial total of $10 billion in cash put in over seven years and $40 billion in guarantees.

The bank will start lending in 2016 and be open to membership by other countries, but the capital share of the BRICS cannot drop below 55 percent. The contingency currency pool will be held in the reserves of each BRICS country and can be shifted to another member to cushion balance of payments difficulties. This initiative gathered momentum after the reverse in the flows of cheap dollars that fueled a boom in emerging markets for a decade. "It will help contain the volatility faced by diverse economies as a result of the tapering of the United States' policy of monetary expansion," President Dilma Rousseff said.

China, holder of the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, will contribute the bulk of the contingency currency pool, or $41 billion. Brazil, India and Russia will chip in $18 billion each and South Africa $5 billion. If a need arises, China will be eligible to ask for half of its contribution, South Africa for double and the remaining countries the amount they put in. Negotiations over the headquarters and first presidency were reached at the eleventh hour due to differences between India and China. The impasse reflected the difficulties that Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa face in working together to build an alternative to the Bretton Woods institutions dominated by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

"We pulled it off 10 minutes before the end of the game. We reached a balanced package that is satisfactory to all," a Brazilian diplomat told Reuters.

Negotiations to create the bank dragged on for more than two years as Brazil and India fought China's attempts to get a bigger share in the lender than the others.

Stark economic and political differences between the BRICS countries have made it difficult for the group to turn rhetoric into concrete action in coordinating policies.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Bubbles Carries the Day - Hit the BRICS


There was a fairly obvious hit on the metals today, to add a bit to the declines experienced yesterday.

Unless you are daytrading this type of thing ought not to be of any great concern.

The miners were certainly taken out to the woodshed on these antics.

It was a bit disappointing to see silver give up the 21 handle.

Most would think that the slam on the metals, and that is clearly what it was, is coincident with Bubbles Yellen and her appearance before the Congress. I was thinking it was more related to the BRIC meeting in Brazil.

I am sure you have heard about their plan to bring out their own development bank as a counter to the Anglo-American controlled IMF. But I am also hearing that they may say more about substantial about reserve currency alternatives in a subsequent announcement. 
Xinhua News Agency July 15, 2014 3:09pm
FLASH: BRICS AGREES TO SET UP CONTINGENT RESERVE ARRANGEMENT WITH INITIAL SIZE OF 100 BLN USD
A good chunk of silver bullion arrived in the deliverable category at Brinks, but otherwise the Comex is a snore, except for concentrated selling in quiet markets. Up and down, these jokers like to move the price to scare the retail crowd. 

The only real long term affect is to kill the markets they have, to be replaced by other markets which offer more equitable and efficient terms and execution. Bad actions crowd out the good. We are seeing that in spades as the great trading floors turn into ghost towns. Someone needs to save the crony capitalists from themselves, but I do not think it is possible.

Liz Warren's questioning of Bubbles today was a breath of fresh air.

Have a pleasant evening.





SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Wobbly But Buoyant


After the bell Intel beat its numbers and Yahoo. missed. Yahoo also announced that they will be able to retain more shares of Alibaba than previously anticipated.

As you may remember, Alibaba is expected to be one of the largest IPOs ever in August of this year.

No doubt the wiseguys will seek to sustain the market until then.

The handoff of stocks to mom and pop is underway however. I am thinking of a drop in the stock markets in the autumn.

Otherwise, all is complacency despite the occasional wash and rinse.

Have a pleasant evening.





14 July 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Liberté, Liberté Chérie


The hit on the metals began in the quiet overnight hours and received some additional momentum on the New York open. Here is a picture of a 2300 gold contract 'dump.' Just another day of price discovery, nothing to see here.

Tomorrow is when Bubbles Yellen gives her Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to the Congress.

That was a very close World Cup final game yesterday, for those who actually watched it before commenting on it. While it was largely a defensive battle, Argentina gave up a few opportunities to score that I am sure will be to their regrets in retrospect.

Götze's goal for Germany was very well done against the able goalkeeping of Romero, and was only his second of the tournament. Herr Schweinsteiger must surely have set some sort of record for the number of medical treatments on the field. But there was a general strong team play on both sides, and the sort of well executed game that graced the setting well.

Happy Bastille Day, mes amis.

Have a pleasant evening.











SP 500 and NDX Futures Charts - Rally Around the Banks Boys


US equities rallied today for no particular reason, except perhaps that nothing 'bad' had happened over the holiday weekend.

Bubbles will give her Humphrey-Hawkins testimony tomorrow to the Congress.

Have a pleasant evening.






NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds - Another Gold Withdrawal From Sprott


There was another redemption of gold from the Sprott Physical Gold Trust, of about 6,150 ounces, with a commensurate reduction in units since the last time I updated this chart near the end of June.



11 July 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Poised on a Knife's Edge


The World Cup final is on Sunday, and the punters have Germany and Argentina as fairly even odds with a bit of an edge to the Germans.  I would call it pretty even, especially since it is only one game, and a typically low scoring one at that which can turn on a few events and an emotional tide.

Speaking of too close to call, gold and silver turned in a satisfactory week's performance, and are on the verge of breakouts.

We have been here before. Let's see if they can find firmer ground and sprint a little, or will we continue this slow slog through the marshlands of international monetary push and pull.

The metals bears have grown fairly complacent, and their talking trash is running high.  If gold and silver can break and run, it would be quite the change in trend and in sentiment.

I am holding a good sized gold position since the latest selling bottom, and am back into silver. My long term positions never change.

The World Cup will not be the only action in Brazil, as the BRICs will be having their annual meeting there next week.

See you Sunday evening.