25 August 2014

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Sittin' On Top of the World


"On desperate seas long wont to roam,
Thy hyacinth hair, thy classic face,
Thy Naiad airs have brought me home
To the glory that was Greece,
And the grandeur that was Rome."

Edgar Allen Poe, To Helen

I think we are getting close to the end of this wash cycle. I'd expect a sideways chop for a while, barring false flags and other events unexpected.

VIX shows we are back to relative complacency. Big change from the bottom of the rinse cycle, isn't it? Can't be too skeptical or cynical these days.

It certainly looks like the Imperium Anglo-americae will last for at least one thousand years.

Have a pleasant evening.








Some Wisdom About Leadership From the Depths of the Depression


"Management is doing things right; leadership is doing the right things."

Peter Drucker

In other words, management is about the process of organization. A manager may be a great organizer, but a terrible leader. Management is an essential skill. But it lacks traction in times of great change.  Management will almost always choose what is expedient, but a leader will do what is both practical from within a set of choices that are right.   Superior management skills in the hands of the efficiently immoral, or even amoral, can create a hell on earth.

Leadership is about the substance, the overwhelming sense of what is wrong and what is right based on set of principles that can energize a people to accomplish goals greater than the sum of their parts. The vision of a leader can guide a people through a time of change and turmoil, where the tradeoffs are not clear, and in dispute. Leadership is not possible without a dedication to a set of principles that transcend mere operational goals. 

Goals must be joined together in a coherent manner. To merely state that our goals are low inflation and high employment are not sufficient.  How do they complement one another?  From whence do they derive?  How are priorities to be set between them?

And above all, leadership is more than a title, and power, and high pay.  A leader must have a natural empathy and affinity with those whom they lead, and that concern must be closely aligned and apparent.  They understand the worries and concerns of their people, and more importantly can speak directly to them with not only words but action. Leadership sets an example, and adheres to a set of principles greater than itself.  If the principles are worthy, and the strategy well thought, and the management sound, then the chances of success are good.

The social safety net is certainly important, in that it keeps individuals and families from falling into tragedy and despair because of our no-longer-so-recent financial dislocation.

However, direct government assistance is best as a temporary salve to a problem, especially a natural disaster.  It is not effective as a permanent state of affairs.

The great shortcoming of the liberal economists has been to ignore those conditions which have caused the ongoing financial crisis, which has been ebbing and flowing since at least 2001.   By the way and in their defense, the greater failure of their adversaries or counterparties is to address themselves fruitfully to the problems and conditions of the real world, rather than a world of top down idealisms and slogans of their own creation.  The liquidationists and austerians seek to create a clean slate by blowtorching the landscape of those things that offend their purely intellectual sensibilities, and the victims be damned.

Adding stimulus to a system that is broken only produces more of what has gone before, because the situation has not changed sufficiently to restore the economy to balance, to an equitable distribution of its growth in both profits and wages.

Thanks to Pam Martens for reminding us of that prescient speech by Franklin Roosevelt, delivered in the depth of the Great Depression, about the need for leadership and new ideas, especially those of progressive reform. Memo to Fed: Interest Rates Are a Sideshow; the Problem is Income Inequality Her essay rightly takes the Fed to task on their trickle down approach to The Recovery which is inexcusable in a monetary authority which is also a major banking regulator and economic policy influencer. 

The problem is not so much the inequality itself. No, the problem is in a corrupt system that routinely gives the upper hand to powerful private organizations in formulating political and policy decisions in the halls of Congress and the Courts.  Over time this transforms the economy into a machine for transferring wealth from the public to the Banks, and the corporations that have sprung up around them.

The problem is not so much the inequality, but the corruption of a system intended to reward productivity with a similar amount of benefits for labor as afforded to those who organize it, for the benefit of all.   This is the difference between market capitalism, where labor is fairly compensated, and slavery.  

And it is the proper role of government to address the imbalances of power amongst its various constituents to maintain equal protection, as much as it is the role of government to guard against incursions of the powerful from abroad.

And when government falls into this trap of corruption by private power, the solution is not to further diminish government, giving even more free reign to private power. The solution is to reform and restore balance between public and private interests.

Where power in an economy falls into such an imbalance, and concentrates in fewer and fewer hands, that society will find itself increasingly trying to remain standing on a two legged stool, held up increasingly by more fraud and more force, and the steady erosion of justice and the rule of law.

"I believe that the recent course of our history has demonstrated that, while we may utilize their expert knowledge of certain problems and the special facilities with which. they are familiar, we cannot allow our economic life to be controlled by that small group of men whose chief outlook upon the social welfare is tinctured by the fact that they can make huge profits from the lending of money and the marketing of securities--an outlook which deserves the adjectives 'selfish' and 'opportunist.'

You have been struck, I know, by the tragic irony of our economic situation today. We have not been brought to our present state by any natural calamity--by drought or floods or earthquakes or by the destruction of our productive machine or our man power. Indeed, we have a superabundance of raw materials, a more than ample supply of equipment for manufacturing these materials into the goods which we need, and transportation and commercial facilities for making them available to all who need them. But raw materials stand unused, factories stand idle, railroad traffic continues to dwindle, merchants sell less and less, while millions of able-bodied men and women, in dire need, are clamoring for the opportunity to work. This is the awful paradox with which we are confronted, a stinging rebuke that challenges our power to operate the economic machine which we have created.

We are presented with a multitude of views as to how we may again set into motion that economic machine. Some hold to the theory that the periodic slowing down of our economic machine is one of its inherent peculiarities--a peculiarity which we must grin, if we can, and bear because if we attempt to tamper with it we shall cause even worse ailments. According to this theory, as I see it, if we grin and bear long enough, the economic machine will eventually begin to pick up speed and in the course of an indefinite number of years will again attain that maximum number of revolutions which signifies what we have been wont to miscall prosperity, but which, alas, is but a last ostentatious twirl of the economic machine before it again succumbs to that mysterious impulse to slow down again.

This attitude toward our economic machine requires not only greater stoicism, but greater faith in immutable economic law and less faith in the ability of man to control what he has created than I, for one, have. Whatever elements of truth lie in it, it is an invitation to sit back and do nothing; and all of us are suffering today, I believe, because this comfortable theory was too thoroughly implanted in the minds of some of our leaders, both in finance and in public affairs...

No, our basic trouble was not an insufficiency of capital. It was an insufficient distribution of buying power coupled with an over-sufficient speculation in production. While wages rose in many of our industries, they did not as a whole rise proportionately to the reward to capital, and at the same time the purchasing power of other great groups of our population was permitted to shrink. We accumulated such a superabundance of capital that our great bankers were vying with each other, some of them employing questionable methods, in their efforts to lend this capital at home and abroad.

I believe that we are at the threshold of a fundamental change in our popular economic thought, that in the future we are going to think less about the producer and more about the consumer. Do what we may have to do to inject life into our ailing economic order, we cannot make it endure for long unless we can bring about a wiser, more equitable distribution of the national income.

It is well within the inventive capacity of man, who has built up this great social and economic machine capable of satisfying the wants of all, to insure that all who are willing and able to work receive from it at least the necessities of life. In such a system, the reward for a day's work will have to be greater, on the average, than it has been, and the reward to capital, especially capital which is speculative, will have to be less. But I believe that after the experience of the last three years, the average citizen would rather receive a smaller return upon his savings in return for greater security for the principal, than experience for a moment the thrill or the prospect of being a millionaire only to find the next moment that his fortune, actual or expected, has withered in his hand because the economic machine has again broken down.

It is toward that objective that we must move if we are to profit by our recent experiences. Probably few will disagree that the goal is desirable. Yet many, of faint heart, fearful of change, sitting tightly on the roof-tops in the flood, will sternly resist striking out for it, lest they fail to attain it. Even among those who are ready to attempt the journey there will be violent differences of opinion as to how it should be made. So complex, so widely distributed over our whole society are the problems which confront us that men and women of common aim do not agree upon the method of attacking them. Such disagreement leads to doing nothing, to drifting. Agreement may come too late."

Franklin D. Roosevelt, Address at Oglethorpe University, May 22, 1932




22 August 2014

The Four Challeges In Reforming Economic Governance


“It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.”

Mark Twain

This is an interesting discussion by Jeff Sachs, about where we are and why we are there.

It is from Jeff Sachs talk at the Martin School at Oxford.  I join it in progress. 

I have come to believe that nothing will change until the financiers blow up the system for a third time.  And then the variables will start filling in, and falling into place.  

I am especially interested to see what the 'outliers' do in response to this, they being the large actors outside the domestic system, primarily the BRICS.   China and Russia in particular, but also the rest of South America and East Asia and the subcontinent.  Africa not so much as of yet.

But to some extent a bellwether will be Europe, which will have a key choice to make.  And of course the Anglo-American public, but the poor souls are being let down badly and led astray by their leaders.
 




Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Option Expiration Next Week


As a reminder, next Tuesday the 26th will be an option expiration on the Comex.

There is intraday commentary about a South African bond denominated and paid for with gold.  This is the first issuance of a real gold bond in many a year.

I would expect most of official shilldom and the financial status quo to ignore this. Until another country or entity does the same thing, and then they will speak out against such flagrant barbarism.

The rest of the world (ROW) seems to have noticed that the Fed has a printing press, and that they are willing to create vast amounts of money, and distribute it to whom they please.  And they may not believe in the theory that says that such behavior by a sovereign monetary authority has no consequences. 

Add an almost blatant criminogenic financial system organized and controlled by its serial offenders, and those with the means and the will start to seek alternatives, wherever they may.  Sovereigns do not appreciate being bullied and cheated like the run-of-the-mill domestic customers.

We will be getting a bit more economic news next week.  A listing is included below.

So far this month about 593,400 ounces of gold have been 'stopped' at the Comex.  Nothing ever seems to leave their warehouses, however.  It has the character of a speculative shell game.  Wagers are made, and things are moved around the table, but nothing much changes hands except the bets.

If the BRICS have a mind to do things with their gold reserves, they may have to create a more robust and responsive system of price discovery than the Liar's Poker on the Hudson called the Comex.  So let's watch for developments there.

Remember the poor, the infirm and suffering, those who are tempted to despair, and those who have no one to care for them.  And when you cross paths with your fellows, keep in mind that they also may be having a hard time of it, and try to bring a little joy and consolation into their lives.  "Clothe yourself in light, the Lord's glory shines upon you,”

Have a pleasant weekend. 







 

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Jackson Holes, Hunger Games


Janet Yellen made her Fed debut at their Jackson Hole conference today.

Her remarks moved the markets back and forth a bit, and in light volumes with littler other geopolitical and economic news the markets did a sideways consolidation.

Well, there was some news. Various government figures have started warning about a large scale terror attack by ISIS. One can only wonder what time the next building falls down.

Not to worry one might think, at least judging by the VIX which continues to fall to relatively complacent levels, lulled by the Fed, with a milky smile on its lips.

The discussions are primarily useless on most financial television shows. They typically present the viewer with a false dichotomy.  Either the Fed must have done exactly as it has done, or it would have done nothing, with a 1930's Depression as the result. Take your pick of a purely binary choice, just like the US elections.

Perhaps there are a broader range of policy alternatives to consider? Not on the Capitol District's bubblevision.

Have a pleasant weekend.





A Bond Paid For and Denominated In Gold: A Rhyme From the Past


I don't think that we have seen such a thing since the gold bonds which went the way of the twenty dollar gold piece in the early part of the 20th century.

There is a Bloomberg story on this today that is not generally available so I do not have a link as yet. It will be added as it becomes available.  An astute reader sent it my way.
 
(Later) Here is the story as it has come out on the web as Gold Bonds' Glittering Future.

Here is the actual bond announcement on the JSE site.

As you may recall, South Africa puts the 'S' in BRICS.

Most Americans will struggle with the notion of using any other measure of value than the US dollar, because they have had so little exposure to foreign exchange, except for the occasional trip to Canada or Mexico.    But the rest of the world seems more keenly aware that notional currencies are various forms of measurement of value, and the 'referees' can move the goalposts if they will.

I am not so sure whether it is a good investment or not.  After all, a bond is a bond, and represents the credit risk of the issuer, no matter what yardstick is used to measure it. 
 
When thinking about this bond it is important to remember that the krugerrand is legal tender in South Africa.  The bond is denominated specifically in krugerrands.

As I see it, all the uses of gold in traditional ways have a common weakness.  Price discovery is too driven by the bucket shops and carney games of the Banks, where price can be whatever they wish it to be, at least judging by the rigging scandals in nearly everything. 

The US dollar had a nice long run as the post WW II under Bretton Woods I & II because, as Fed Chairman Greenspan put it, the dollar emulated the stability of a gold standard.  

Alas, that has given way to the more fashionable "Liars's Poker Standard" which has become de rigueur with the Banks.  National sovereigns eventually chafe at being cheated and abused, in the manner of domestic customers.  So I expect the changes to show up first in the international payments arena.  Oh yes, they already are.  Mirabile dictu.

I assume there are plans to change that for a more 'delivery based' supply and demand price discovery mechanism, most likely centered in Asia where the transactions and exchanges of bullion seem to be located.

But it is certainly an interesting development to see a real bond denominated in both purchase and payout with gold as its underlying 'currency' once again.  As the force and fraud of the status quo increases, those who have the means and the determination will seek their alternatives, one by one at first. 

And to all the banking cartel trolls, shills, and performance artists,  remember that you have brought this on yourselves.  It is not due to any plot by those who are jealous of your great success.  It is because you were too greedy and dishonourable to stop yourselves from destabilizing the financial system, once again.  Winning...

What will we remember next?  

Gold Bond Harks to Gilded Age and Presages Future
By Mark Gilbert

Aug. 22 (Bloomberg View) -- In these post-credit-crisis days, true innovation in the shell-shocked world of money is a rarity. Mistrust of the financial industry, central banks and fiat currencies, however, is ubiquitous. So a new breed of security that combines innovation and mistrust is noteworthy.

FirstRand Bank Ltd., South Africa's second-biggest lender, has created what seems to be the world's first fully gold-denominated bond, borrowing 2 billion rand ($188 million) for five years. Investors have to pay for their bonds in krugerrands, gold coins minted by the South African government with one troy ounce of the metal.

One of the charges leveled against gold -- the "barbarous relic" in the sweeping judgment of John Maynard Keynes -- is that you don't earn interest or dividends on the precious metal; the FirstRand bond offers 0.5 percent:

At its expiry the value of the bond is determined by the current gold price, the Dollar/Rand exchange rate and the interest earned. This interest is calculated in terms of ounces of gold as represented by Krugerrands. Investors may take physical delivery of the Krugerrands on maturity or opt to get settled in cash...




Elizabeth Warren: What Happened to the Middle Class?


You cannot possibly fix it if you don't know what happened.