What is a proper disposition towards life? It is to accept God as a loving father, who is full of tenderness and forgiveness for us, despite our willful blunders and hardened hearts. He yearns for us, as a father and mother yearn for the return of their most beloved child. It is to accept that we are not lost, we are not abandoned. We are wandering like a wayward child, full of our own headstrong delusions. And our father waits expectantly, calling out for us through the darkness. Jesse, 2018
There is an old saying on Wall Street that as goes January, so goes the year. This is also known in some circles as the 'January barometer.'
If this is the case it is going to be a good year for precious metals and a very wild ride for stocks.
It certainly did not 'work' last year, which also forecast a good year for the metals and a bum year for stocks. The metals continued their bear market decline, but stocks were in fact down to flat.
Ah, if only life and forecasting was that simple so that a single metric would suffice.
"Love is patient, love is kind. It does not envy, it does not boast, it is not proud.
It does not dishonor others, it is not self-seeking, it is not easily angered, it keeps no record of wrongs. Love does not delight in evil but rejoices with the truth. It always protects, always trusts, always hopes, always perseveres."
Gold and silver were stronger than expected today as the US dollar was soaring on the shocker that the Bank of Japan is going negative on yen interest rates.
This set the markets back on their heels because just a week ago BoJ's Kuroda publicly dismissed the possibility.
This is a possible artifact of the currency war, in which certain countries will be seeking to devalue their currencies through various mechanisms in the hope of stimulating their economies, among other things.
On that announcement the US dollar index lit its afterburners and rallied harder. I am wondering if these currency interventions, because this is exactly what the BoJ has done, will do anything to roil the massive currency carry trades and derivatives associated with these.
BoJ purportedly acted to stimulate Banks to make loans, which is a bunch of hoo-haw. All the BoJ would require is for a few well placed people to pick up the phone and make some phone calls.
Gold is still outpacing silver, and this is due to the 'flight to safety' environment, even though we saw a sharp reversal in the Risk equilibrium in equities today that I suspect is more technical and short term.
I will probably have something more to say about January a littler later on.
There was some actual movement in the Comex licensed gold warehouses, bring the monthly delivery total to a staggering 5,800 ounces. Wow.
Silver was most interesting with a 21.5% drop in registered bullion which is a big one day move. I commented on this earlier today here. There are plenty of screaming headlines one can write about this in the search for clicks, but for now it is just an interesting fact with a significance that is not known, excepting that it is not 'business as usual.'
One theory I have heard is that the recent 'glitch' with the new London silver price fix that was so oddly far below the market spooked some holders of the metal into fears of having their registered bullion delivered out from under them 'on the cheap.'
There are also the usual rumours involving China which is said to be scooping up the remnants of gold and silver where they may. This I cannot address, but the notion that the 80 cents below prevailing market 'price fix' in London tightened up some strong hands makes some sense.
Let's continue to keep an eye on the chart formations and try to listen to the markets.
Stocks were on a tear today as the first look at the GDP number for 4Q 2015 came in as lousy as expected.
If the past is any indication, the next two revisions will take it lower to the zero bound, perhaps even negative.
Digging beneath the numbers, it appears that rising healthcare costs were a major contributor to GDP. Since healthcare costs in the US are far above what is paid in the rest of the developed world, one might consider the growth of those costs as a distortion on the greater economy, almost in the manner of a tax.
And the BOJ shocked the markets by opting for negative interest rates, just one week after Kuroda san came out and said they were not going to do it.
One wonders what they have seen that so greatly changed their minds and so quickly.
Stocks may have a little more upside, and the targets on the charts are somewhat visible to the discerning eye. But we must be wary of a failed rally on puff and stuff and HFT buying in the short squeeze. Because the problem with this market in general is that its underpinnings are lacking in substance to say the least, and vulnerable to a decline.
The 'registered' for delivery silver bullion at the Comex licensed facilities dropped by 7,792,110 troy ounces yesterday.
This takes the total from 36,322,409 to 28,530,299.
This is a one day decline of 21.5%.
This also brings the total deliverable silver down to some unfamiliar lows not seen since 2011. The level is not nearly as extreme as gold's, but it is getting there if this keeps up. I include a chart of the registered silver at Comex for the last ten years below.
Silver in these warehouses has been seeing some large movements for some time now, a fact which I attributed to CNT using the Comex as a delivery mechanism for the silver which they use in their wholesale business. But this kind of drop is not usual.
Comex Silver looks positively lively compared to Comex Gold, which is starting to resemble a Madame Tussaud's depiction of a commodity market, seeing very little activity, and almost frozen in time like some artifact from the past.
I bring these facts to your attention not out of some sense of alarm, and I do not wish to sensationalize them. Although some do. I think it is just something a bit unusual that bears watching, since it does not seem to be occurring in isolation and is an 'outlier' from the usual business. And I would not have brought it up except in passing if it had only related to CNT, which I would have then assumed was related to one of their large wholesale transactions.
Below is the statement of the warehouses from the day before, from last night's posting here.
"Mozart's music is so pure and beautiful that I see it as a reflection of the inner beauty of the universe."
Albert Einstein
I forgot to mention that yesterday was Mozart's birthday. His 260th I believe. His music is certainly the silver lining in life, some recompense for the ugliness that passes for success with our modern day Trimalchios of finance.
When most of the Very Serious People of our time are dust and long forgotten, Mozart will be remembered because he brought beauty into the world by ordering sounds to please the minds and refresh the hearts.
And when people think of the powerful of our day in the same manner in which they may vaguely recall the Pharaohs, some of whose names may be familiar but little else of them comes to mind, gold will still be a repository of value.
"The common are but a breath, the highborn but a lie. If weighed on a balance, they are nothing; together they are only a breath, less substantial than their vanity."
Psalm 62:9
Nothing provides for our continuance, and nothing abides after death, except for love. This is easily said, but rarely taken to heart.
Long ago I had a terrible dream. After thinking about it I later believed was a vision of hell, at least as my subconscious mind had conceived it. But at the time I did not think that it was that sort of thing, just a very puzzling but remarkably vivid dream. I generally have mundane ones, and the occasional one where I forget an assignment and have to go back to graduate school. lol.
In this dream the streets and buildings were hard and barren, but like marble, and beautifully kept like some ancient marketplace when it was newly made. But it was void of all humanity, and totally devoid of any life, even plants.
As I stood at the gate in front of a widely open arch, a voice warned me sharply not to proceed within despite its magnificent beauty. The streets and pillared buildings were crafted of fine white stone, quietly shimmering with a hidden but very intense heat. Surprisingly there was no sunlight, no shadows, and it was under skies that were almost a fog, but higher off the ground.
The only other feature was dried leaves, like those of late Autumn, unremarkable and indistinguishable, brown remnants that were making faint scratching sounds as they were blown slowly across the cobble-stoned pavements in the slowly swirling heat. I remember that it was that noise the drew my attention to them. It was not a pleasant sound, almost like faint sounds of a scratching in the walls.
It was a vision that struck me to the heart. and I told no one about it. But I never forgot it.
Much later I came to the believe that these 'leaves' were the souls of the lost, and the scratching sound was their voices, but indistinct, without a personal identity. Having been stripped of their vanities and possessions, there was nothing left of them but the husks of living beings. And so this is what remained. They were not being punished or burned in the traditional sense, they were just not 'human,' anymore, and were more like dead leaves.
And deep down I knew that I wanted no part of this, that is was not a good place to be, that despite its hard but orderly beauty it was 'empty' in a very profound way.
Well, this is what I have made of it some years later in thinking about it. It is hard to express it in words how strange this was, but even now the impression of it is intense in a way that makes it hard to even remember without a kind of dread. I never have those sorts of dreams, so this one stands out. And it was a 'pivotal learning moment' for me whatever it was.
Gold and silver were taking back some of the recent gains as they moved lower. Interestingly enough so was the dollar, moving lower. Is risk back on? Not to judge by the stock market results.
There were the usual piddling to no deliveries at The Bucket Shop, and some silver was pushed around the plate, with gold a snoozer as usual.
I would like to see gold hold its level and move higher from here. But there are a lot of things that I would like that are apparently not meant to be, so let's see what happens.
Let us pray for those whose hearts are hardened against His grace and loving kindness by greed, fear, and pride, and the seductive illusion and crushing isolation of evil.
We pray that we all may experience the three great gifts of our Lord's suffering and triumph: repentance, forgiveness, and thankfulness. And in so doing, may we obtain abundant life, and with it the peace that surpasses all understanding.
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