31 October 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - All Tricks and No Treats


I heard an interesting data point today from the public pollsters, that those who are very confident and comfortable in how things are going now are flocking to Hillary, while those who are very uncomfortable and lacking in confidence about the system as it is are flocking to Trump.

These are the two extremes. The broad middle seems to be struggling with a choice while they hold their noses, because the disapproval ratings of both candidates are historically high.

What this tends to imply is a great deal of dissatisfaction with either outcome, no matter who wins the election next week.

The dollar tried to rally today but faded into the close, along with stocks.

Gold and silver went out on their highs for the day, pushed up against near term overhead resistance.

We are now into the November delivery reporting for the Comex, which is really just the accounting for IOUs since little gold is actually delivered as can be seen from the actual warehouse report.

But at least silver should start showing a bit more 'spark' now.

Three central Banks, the US, the UK, and Japan, will pause from contemplating their navels and say/do something this week with regard to key interest rates.

I strongly doubt that the US will do anything because of the imminent presidential election.

Valeant Pharmaceutical is under criminal investigation for accounting fraud we hear today.  I would call it a good start, with quite a few more dodgy corporate crime families to go.

The World Series moves to Cleveland tomorrow, with hope springing eternal, or at least a reasonable approximation of it, in the long-suffering fans of both clubs.

Gold and silver are facing a real test this week, with the Non-Farm Payrolls and the FOMC.  Let's see how we come out of it.

Happy Halloween.

Have a pleasant evening.








SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Banks and Criminal Culture and the Intersection Thereof


Stocks were weak today despite some attempts to rally them up.

The overhang of three major central bank meetings this week and the US Non-Farms Payroll had the punters sitting on the sidelines.

OPEC failed to agree on production cuts, so the price of oil slumped a bit today as well.

Two Ex-execs of Valeant Pharmaceuticals are being probed for fraud. I believe the stock has lost something like 80+% of its value since Bill Ackman pledged his fund's money to it.

Oh well, tomorrow is another day.

Have a pleasant evening.

28 October 2016

Just Charts Into the Weekend - FOMC and Non-Farm Payrolls Next Week


I consider today's GDP number a particularly generous pre-election pump for Hillary.

The New York Fed's 4Q estimated is 1.4%.

Next week is the FOMC rate decision and on Friday the October Non-Farm Payrolls.

The delivery reports were quiet, with Macquare disgorging another chunk of their gold long position.

Someone took another 450,000+ ounces of gold out of Brink's Hong Kong.

Have a pleasant weekend.

David Malone On Money Laundering, Globalisation, The Media


I have some business to which I must attend, so I will be giving myself the day off.  I'll be back tomorrow.

In the meanwhile, here is a short video on a range of interesting topics from David Malone.  As you may know, David is an acquaintance and a friend of Le Cafe, and the author of the blog GolemXIV.




and as an added attraction, David Malone on the TTIP and the Death of Democracy



27 October 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Capped Again at 1270 - Election Speculation


Gold and silver managed to move higher despite the stronger dollar, with gold showing a little more strength.

With the VIX also climbing, this looked like a flight to safety of some modest proportion.

Gold is obviously caught in a short term trend. Silver as well, although it is not as easy to see this on the weekly chart.

Over 800,000 ounces of gold have been taken off the Brink's accounts in Hong Kong over the past two days. Perhaps not significant in the bigger picture of things. But still worth noting if such a trend to take physical out of the 'Comex warehouses' there and not replace it.

Quite a few traders are busying themselves by trying to figure out with way assets will move if Trump or Hillary win the election.

I am giving it some thought myself, but for now the only people making money in doing this are those who sell their opinions in one way or another.

Right now I can argue it both ways. And personally I find both candidates to be so distasteful that it is hard to even imagine that they could become the 'leader of the free world.'

Regardless, I think it might be wise to hang on to your wallets, unless you are among the self-chosen elite who seem to have shanghaied the American political system.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Reports - Big Profits in 'Finance,' Not So Much In Real Things


Stocks were weak most of the day driven by lackluster earnings and the quality of those earnings calculations.

The markets were cheered during the day when a story broke that a small group of traders in interest rate derivatives was able to score a cool $300 million profit for the quarter.

Of course that spectacular amount was not obtain from 'prop trading' which the Banks have been told to exit, but from just 'serving their customers' and holding 'certain positions for inventory.'

Yeah, right. Well, I am sure the NY Fed has their back, or something like that.

After the bell Amazon laid an earnings egg, and tech stocks moved lower in the futures markets. The stock was down a bit over six percent.

Alphabet, a part of the behemoth formerly known as Google, turned in what looked like a positive report but the stock was largely unchanged as the markets went seeking a Rosetta Stone to try and interpret Alpha's hieroglyphics accounting numbers.

And a pleasant is guaranteed, for just a few.

Have a pleasant evening.