01 November 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Gold and Silver Rally on Uncertainty, Worries For the Status Quo


The VIX spiked higher today, and gold and silver rallied with the Swiss franc as the market felt a chill of Winter run up their backs.

Conventional wisdom points to the sudden rise of Donald Trump in the polls, pulling even with Hillary, at least in the popular vote.

To sharpen it down to a fine point, today was all about the fear of the unknown, for those who are so comfortable and accustomed to be winning.

The 'establishment' does not care one bit for this added uncertainty.

But we also have the central banks mucking about, and plenty of global tensions to go around that are normally pushed aside by the market mavens.

But every once in a while they pause in their exceptional giddiness, and begin to wonder, and to think about the real future may hold for them.

Let's see if gold and silver can add to the gains, or at least get past the FOMC and the NFP numbers on Friday unscathed.

Have a pleasant evening.






"Wonderful providence indeed which is so silent, yet so efficacious, so constant, so unerring. This is what baffles the power of Satan. He cannot discern the Hand of God in what goes on; and though he would fain meet it and encounter it, in his mad and blasphemous rebellion against heaven, he cannot find it.

Crafty and penetrating as he is, yet his thousand eyes and his many instruments avail him nothing against the majestic serene silence, the holy imperturbable calm which reigns through the providences of God. Crafty and experienced as he is, he appears like a child or a fool, like one made sport of, whose daily bread is but failure and mockery, before the deep and secret wisdom of the Divine Counsels.

He makes a guess here, or does a bold act there, but all in the dark. He knew not of Gabriel's coming, and the miraculous conception of the Virgin, or what was meant by that Holy Thing which was to be born, being called the Son of God. He tried to kill him, and he made martyrs of the innocent children; he tempted the Lord of all with hunger and with ambitious prospects; he sifted the Apostles, and got none but one who already bore his own name, and had been already given over as a devil.

He brought into the world the very salvation which he feared and hated. He accomplished the Atonement of that world, whose misery he was plotting. Wonderfully silent, yet resistless course of God's providence! 'Verily, Thou art a God that hidest Thyself, O God of Israel, the Saviour;' and if even devils, sagacious as they are, spirits by nature and experienced in evil, cannot detect His hand, while He works, how can we hope to see it except by that way which the devils cannot take, by loving faith?"

John Henry Newman, PS 17

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Risk Off


Today was a 'risk off' day for whatever reasons one wishes to cite.

But it was a risk averse day. Take a look at the VIX.

It could be the uncertainty of the FOMC meeting and the Non-Farm Payrolls number coming out.

But it could also be Donald Trump's rise in the polling to have an even to slight edge chance against Hillary in the 'popular vote.'

So, as I said, the punters were pulling in their lines a bit, although stocks certainly came off the afternoon lows.

Have a pleasant evening.



31 October 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - All Tricks and No Treats


I heard an interesting data point today from the public pollsters, that those who are very confident and comfortable in how things are going now are flocking to Hillary, while those who are very uncomfortable and lacking in confidence about the system as it is are flocking to Trump.

These are the two extremes. The broad middle seems to be struggling with a choice while they hold their noses, because the disapproval ratings of both candidates are historically high.

What this tends to imply is a great deal of dissatisfaction with either outcome, no matter who wins the election next week.

The dollar tried to rally today but faded into the close, along with stocks.

Gold and silver went out on their highs for the day, pushed up against near term overhead resistance.

We are now into the November delivery reporting for the Comex, which is really just the accounting for IOUs since little gold is actually delivered as can be seen from the actual warehouse report.

But at least silver should start showing a bit more 'spark' now.

Three central Banks, the US, the UK, and Japan, will pause from contemplating their navels and say/do something this week with regard to key interest rates.

I strongly doubt that the US will do anything because of the imminent presidential election.

Valeant Pharmaceutical is under criminal investigation for accounting fraud we hear today.  I would call it a good start, with quite a few more dodgy corporate crime families to go.

The World Series moves to Cleveland tomorrow, with hope springing eternal, or at least a reasonable approximation of it, in the long-suffering fans of both clubs.

Gold and silver are facing a real test this week, with the Non-Farm Payrolls and the FOMC.  Let's see how we come out of it.

Happy Halloween.

Have a pleasant evening.








SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Banks and Criminal Culture and the Intersection Thereof


Stocks were weak today despite some attempts to rally them up.

The overhang of three major central bank meetings this week and the US Non-Farms Payroll had the punters sitting on the sidelines.

OPEC failed to agree on production cuts, so the price of oil slumped a bit today as well.

Two Ex-execs of Valeant Pharmaceuticals are being probed for fraud. I believe the stock has lost something like 80+% of its value since Bill Ackman pledged his fund's money to it.

Oh well, tomorrow is another day.

Have a pleasant evening.

28 October 2016

Just Charts Into the Weekend - FOMC and Non-Farm Payrolls Next Week


I consider today's GDP number a particularly generous pre-election pump for Hillary.

The New York Fed's 4Q estimated is 1.4%.

Next week is the FOMC rate decision and on Friday the October Non-Farm Payrolls.

The delivery reports were quiet, with Macquare disgorging another chunk of their gold long position.

Someone took another 450,000+ ounces of gold out of Brink's Hong Kong.

Have a pleasant weekend.

David Malone On Money Laundering, Globalisation, The Media


I have some business to which I must attend, so I will be giving myself the day off.  I'll be back tomorrow.

In the meanwhile, here is a short video on a range of interesting topics from David Malone.  As you may know, David is an acquaintance and a friend of Le Cafe, and the author of the blog GolemXIV.




and as an added attraction, David Malone on the TTIP and the Death of Democracy