Stille Nacht

"Let the children have their night of fun and laughter. Let the gifts of Father Christmas delight their play. Let us grown-ups share to the full in their unstinted pleasures before we turn again to the stern task and the formidable years that lie before us, resolved that, by our sacrifice and daring, these same children shall not be robbed of their inheritance or denied their right to live in a free and decent world. And so, in God’s mercy, a happy Christmas to you all."

Winston Churchill, Christmas radio address, December 1941


"Gratitude can transform common days into thanksgivings, turn routine jobs into joy, and change ordinary opportunities into blessings."

William Arthur Ward

Music and a thought on a rainy, dreary day, with a good book, a crackling fireplace, and a gently snoring little Dolly.

Although I had written this below in happier times, not knowing what the future would bring, I nevertheless find comfort in it now as then, understand it more fully, and hold it ever more dearly in my heart.

Christmas is more than a time of joy and gift-giving and receiving presents. It is a time to recall our blessings and to gain strength in the grace and bosom of our families.

And above all it is a time to remember that greatest, almost incomprehensible gift in all history, how our Lord made himself as us, and as we are of him, and came to us in the flesh, the incarnation of selfless love.

And thereby those of us who are no longer present in body at the Christmas hearth may still be there in spirit with us, as we will some day be with them. Not bound up in crippling self-pity, not immobilized by faceless fear, not fleeting as a merely morose remembrance, but to be there vitally in our lives as our good angels, reminding us that the Christmas spirit is to be found in 'active usefulness, perseverance, cheerful discharge of duty, kindness and forbearance.' This is how we may not only honor and cherish their memory, but actually live again in love with them.

What greater gift could we possibly desire to receive, than the ability to do good, to persevere in love, and to thereby live in the love of those for whom we care and who care for us, always? That gift is there, if only we will not shut the door of our hearts, and be open to it. It is not always easy, because love is too often clumsy, and turns back on us when we serve it out of selfish expectations. But if we serve it in its true Christmas spirit, for the right reasons, then it will light a fire in our hearts.

In the end this is the only real tragedy, when out of fear mostly, or pride, or feelings of disappointment we harden our hearts, and destroy our selves while thinking to preserve them, pinned to boards like dead specimens in our own dark rooms of selfishness, unrecalled at the hearths of even friends and family.

Christmas is a time of life, remembrance, forgiveness, tolerance, and love. And so may God bless us, everyone!

Jesse, 16 December 2015

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Dealings of Our Trade - FOMC Decision on Wednesday

"`But you were always a good man of business, Jacob,' faltered Scrooge, who now began to apply this to himself.

`Business!' cried the Ghost, wringing its hands again.  `Mankind was my business.  The common welfare was my business; charity, mercy, forbearance, and benevolence, were, all, my business.  The dealings of my trade were but a drop of water in the comprehensive ocean of my business!'

It held up its chain at arm's length, as if that were the cause of all its unavailing grief, and flung it heavily upon the ground again.

`At this time of the rolling year,' the spectre said `I suffer most.  Why did I walk through crowds of fellow-beings with my eyes turned down, and never raise them to that blessed Star which led the Wise Men to a poor abode!  Were there no poor homes to which its light would have conducted me!'

Scrooge was very much dismayed to hear the spectre going on at this rate, and began to quake exceedingly.

`Hear me!' cried the Ghost.  `My time is nearly gone.'"

Charles Dickens, A Christmas Carol


"I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organisations, specifically banks and others, were such that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity in the firms."

Alan Greenspan, apologising for his disastrous, ideologically-biased policies promoting financial deregulation, 23 October 2008


"Two souls, alas, are housed within my breast,
And each will wrestle for the mastery there...

To speak the truth, as truth to me appeared,
Caused noisy protest, I was hooted down.
Such unpleasant incidents occurred
I ran off, to be on my own,
into a wilderness. Utterly forsaken,
I fell into that devil's grip, and was taken.”

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Faust

Stocks were a bit wobbly today, after Friday's power rally.

There are three short term events that are worth watching.

The first is the FOMC announcement on Wednesday. It is widely expected to be a non-event. But we will have to see what if anything that they say about future actions.

The second is the British general election on December 12th, which could have quite an impact in the currency markets.

And finally there is the deadline of Sunday December 15th for the imposition of additional chinese tariffs.

The stock option expiration for December will not be until Friday the 20th.

Of course there will be the usual economic and earnings data which may move markets as well.

Gold and silver held primarily unchanged today.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Risk On! - Rattling Nonsense in Full Volleys Breaks

"The Lord is my light and my salvation –
     whom shall I fear?
The Lord is the refuge of my life –
     of whom shall I be afraid?"

Psalm 27


"For fools rush in where angels fear to tread
Distrustful sense with modest caution speaks,
It still looks home, and short excursions makes;

But rattling nonsense in full volleys breaks,
And, never shocked, and never turned aside.
Bursts out, resistless, with a thundering tide."

Alexander Pope, Essay on Criticism

Stocks were in a boisterous, risk-taking mood today on a much better than expected Non-Farm Payrolls Report.

The report was boosted by over 40,000 GM workers coming back onto the payrolls after a long strike.

The Dollar was slightly higher, but gold and silver were smacked down hard, as is traditional for a strong payrolls report in the heavily held December contract period.

But this all serves the purposes of the worst, who are loud and proud.

And so let all the worldly rejoice.

Have a pleasant weekend.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - History Lessons Revisited - Peak Hubris

“In sorrow we must go, but not in despair. Behold! we are not bound for ever to the circles of the world, and beyond them is more than memory.”

J.R.R. Tolkien


“We were promised sufferings. They were part of the program. We were even told, 'Blessed are they that mourn,' and I accept it.  I've got nothing that I hadn't bargained for. Of course it is different when the thing happens to oneself, not to others, and in reality, not imagination.”

C.S. Lewis


“If the devil tells you something is too fearful to look at, look at it. If he says something is too terrible to hear, hear it. If you think some truth unbearable, bear it.”

G.K. Chesterton


"The barbarian hopes — and that is the mark of him, that he can have his cake and eat it too.  He will consume what civilization has slowly produced after generations of selection and effort, but he will not be at pains to replace such goods, nor indeed has he a comprehension of the virtue that has brought them into being.

We sit by and watch the barbarian. We tolerate him in the long stretches of peace, we are not afraid. We are tickled by his irreverence; his comic inversion of our old certitudes; we laugh.  But as we laugh we are watched by large and awful faces from beyond, and on these faces there are no smiles.”

Hilaire Belloc


“In an ever-changing, incomprehensible world the masses had reached the point where they would, at the same time, believe everything and nothing, think that everything was possible and that nothing was true. The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

Hannah Arendt

Stocks were largely unchanged, gripped in the uncertainty of macroeconomic news and geopolitical developments.

The dollar continued drifting lower. Gold and silver were also largely unchanged.

Non-Farm payrolls report tomorrow.

The financial elite of the US are in a deep denial.  A reckoning will be coming sooner rather than later.

A surprise, if not a shock, for those who have placed their faith and trust in unworthy temporal things is also coming. And unfortunately, that is most of us.  We have a system that is badly in need of new leadership and reform.

And the face of change is regrettably not to be found in Mitch McConnell or Nancy Pelosi, or most of the politicians and business models that this system has raised and nurtured, so that they belong to it body and soul.

There is great promise, but also risk, in change.

Events will make the words from history which you have read, and understood on the most superficial level or in dismissive of ways, come to life, and impose their meaning on your hearts and minds.

And you will think that you are the first to experience such things— and that the dangers of this age are new and insurmountable.  But in reality we are just trodding the familiar path of an unending struggle, with our eyes now opened, and being called to resist forces that are as old as Babylon, and evil as sin.

Have a pleasant evening.