31 December 2012

Bonne Année - Happy New Year


"Do not be preoccupied with the wicked, or envy those who do evil. They will dry up and wither away like the grass and green plants.

Trust the Lord, and do good things. Live in the land, and practice being faithful.

Be happy with the Lord, and He will give you the desires of your heart.

Conform your ways to His, and He will sustain your efforts. Your righteousness will shine like a light, your just cause like the sun.

Surrender your self to the Lord and wait patiently, abiding in Him."

Psalm 37

Merson, Rest On the Flight Into Egypt



Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts


A sharp rally in the metals today along with stocks, on the last day of the year.

Gold extended its longest bull market since 1920 with a modest 7 percent gain for the year. Stocks returned about 13 percent, and bonds eaked out about 4 percent depending on duration.

In a period of inflation stocks may do well. In stagflation, not so well depending on how the expansion of the money supply and tax gimmicks are wrapped up in policy and the delivery of monetization. Multinationals may outperform depending on the evolution of global trade, policy, and the currency wars.

And as for me, I suspect that we haven't seen anything like a top yet in the metals. The printing presses and de facto defaults are just getting underway.

Non-Farm Payrolls number on Friday, and the fiscal cliff follies will enliven the Congress for the rest of the week.

There is a chance that they will kick the budget cuts can down the road, and merely prevent those making $450,000 or less from a repeal of the Bush tax cuts.

I would suggest that you keep an eye on those rowdy boys in the House.

Have a safe and Happy New Year.




SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - No Deal


There was no deal on the 'fiscal cliff' before the deadline at midnight tonight, but there was plenty of speculation, hints, and hope.

Whatever the leaders decide amongst themselves, the members of the House and Senate must ratify.

But there was plenty of paint on the tape for the close of this year.

Non-Farm Payrolls number comes out on Friday.

Have a safe and pleasant holiday.




Gold This Time Last Year - A Faux Deal and Ongoing Currency Wars


The waters are a little muddied this time around because of the fiscal fluff and the January debt ceiling policy scrum to come, but lo and behold, gold rallied sharply on the last day of the year, after a series of repeated hits lower.

How unusual.

New year, same old games.

And Washington announced, in time before the markets close, that they reached a deal, kind of.

No grand bargain, but a deferral.

It looks like the Senate will agree to avert the tax increases for those with less than 450,000 per year in income, arrangements on capital gains, 40% inheritance tax on estates over 5 million, and AMT. It appears they will leave the budget cut wrangling for the debt ceiling fight in January, and possibly every two months next year after that.

The House will not have a chance to vote for it until later this week most likely.

And at the bottom, an update on Jim Rickards on the ongoing currency wars.






Net Asset Value Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds


Remarkably thin premiums.

In case you were wondering, there will be no deal on the 'fiscal cliff' until sometime in January, if then.

And remember that the debt ceiling is coming into play now, once again.

They might have a continuing resolution today, and even perhaps some sort of  vague 'handshake deal' amongst the Congressional leaders and the President.

But come the end of the week the Senate, and especially the unruly House, must confirm anything in detail that is agreed to amongst the leadership.

And I suspect that this policy battle between austerity and expansion will be a continuing story throughout the new year.




Empires of Illusion and the Credibility Trap - First They Come For the Weak


This will be my last post for 2012, excepting the usual chart updates, as we toddle towards yet another artificial crisis, this time the fiscal cliff.

I came across an interview with Chris Hedges by the Canadian Allan Gregg which illuminates Hedges' thesis of the decline of the American Empire and the illusory thinking that accompanies it. Can the shock and meltdown of Karl Rove on election night be any better contemporary illustration of the power of selective thinking to delude a group of seemingly rational people to their own downfall?

Although I differ from Hedges on a number of observations, particularly in degree, history does suggest that at the end of empires, and the accompanying sea change of social organization, there are often remarkable extremes in human behaviour. The almost frenetic preoccupation and stubborn adherence to the Nazi ideology in the latter stages of the war, when it was obvious to any rational observer that they had failed, is illustrative of that point.

I had been particularly struck in my reading some time ago with the 'wolf packs' of Nazis who had raged through Berlin, rounding up old men and boys who had not joined the Volkssturm and hanging them, even while the Russians were shelling the Reichstag. It never made sense to me until today.
"The radio announced that Hitler had come out of his safe bomb-proof bunker to talk with the fourteen to sixteen year old boys who had 'volunteered' for the 'honor' to be accepted into the SS and to die for their Fuhrer in the defense of Berlin. What a cruel lie! These boys did not volunteer, but had no choice, because boys who were found hiding were hanged as traitors by the SS as a warning that, 'he who was not brave enough to fight had to die.'

When trees were not available, people were strung up on lamp posts. They were hanging everywhere, military and civilian, men and women, ordinary citizens who had been executed by a small group of fanatics. It appeared that the Nazis did not want the people to survive because a lost war, by their rationale, was obviously the fault of all of us. We had not sacrificed enough and therefore, we had forfeited our right to live, as only the government was without guilt."

Dorothea von Schwanenfluegel, Eyewitness account, Fall of Berlin 1945
This is an almost perfect illustration of the credibility trap. One cannot allow the illusion to falter, even a little, to the bitter end. And as the fraud fades, the force intensifies, becoming almost rabid in its deflection of guilt. Because that illusion has become the center of a hollowed people's being, their raison d'être, a mythological justification for their existence.

If the ideology had been a lie, then they are not heroes and gods on earth, but monsters and criminals, and their life has been self-serving and meaningless, without significance and honor. And that is the credibility trap. It is the impulse for the leaders to keep doubling down in the hope of a win, until exhaustion and collapse.
"Treason doth never prosper: what's the reason? Why if it prosper, none dare call it treason."

John Harrington
How else can one explain the irrational, self-destructive policy impulse? This is why they are metaphorically hanging Greeks and Spaniards and Irish in Europe, as tribute to an unsustainable and corrupt Euro monetary arrangement, with its puppet governments run by the banks.

And this is the US financial system and the American policy discussions today. First they come for the powerless and the weak, whether it contributes anything substantial to the broader resolution of the problems or not. The madness serves none but itself.



"A credibility trap is a condition wherein the financial, political and informational functions of a society have been compromised by corruption and fraud, so that the leadership cannot effectively reform, or even honestly address, the problems ot that system without impairing and implicating, at least incidentally, a broad swath of the power structure, including themselves.

The status quo tolerates the corruption and the fraud because they have profited at least indirectly from it, and would like to continue to do so. Even the impulse to reform within the power structure is susceptible to various forms of soft blackmail and coercion by the system that maintains and rewards.

And so a failed policy and its support system become self-sustaining, long after it is seen by objective observers to have failed. In its failure it is counterproductive, and an impediment to recovery in the real economy. Admitting failure is not an option for the thought leaders who receive their power from that system.

The continuity of the structural hierarchy must therefore be maintained at all costs, even to the point of becoming a painfully obvious hypocrisy.

The Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustainable recovery."


30 December 2012

The End Game


About seven months ago Raoul Pal of Global Macro Investor put forward a analysis called 'The End Game.'

I prefer to call it 'The Great Reset.'

I am not sure I agree with his analysis or his timing.    That is a genteel way of saying that it is possible, but not probable and quite possibly crackers.  A gentleman never wishes to inflict discomfort on anyone.


But this does seem to be that time of year to review forecasts predicting doom, gloom, and demise in 2013, and this is one of them that has made the rounds, then and again.  

If nothing else, there is good money to be made in the gloom and doom business.   People often like a whiff of danger-at-a-distance to jolt their jaded psyches. That explains the attraction of horror movies.  And schadenfreude is always diverting for the aspiring ubermench and less amibitious sociopaths.  It is always the other guy that gets it, and well deserved, at least in their minds.

Such a financial reset and reallocation of wealth is not necessary, but it is only necessary that people think that it is.  And there are those who would always enjoy the opportunity presented by a crisis, especially when their illusions and delusions seem to be running out of steam.   A fresh scam beats working for a living.

Now that the 21 December 2012 Mayan end- of-all-things-as-we-know-them has belly flopped, let's see how we do next year.

And by the way, Happy New Year, in advance.

The End Game

28 December 2012

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - See You Sunday Evening


"A shocking crime was committed on the unscrupulous initiative of few individuals, with the blessing of more, and amid the passive acquiescence of all."

Tacitus

The market action was not worth any comment.

The fiscal cliff heats up again on Sunday as the House meets in the late afternoon.

I don't think any deal will be made, and I doubt that Boehner will allow a vote on the motion to not raise taxes on those who make less than $200,000.

And we might expect to do this all over again as the debt ceiling intrudes in January, and the government accounting gains should run out of gas by month's end.

See you Sunday evening.



SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Out on the Lows


The fiscal cliff approacheth.

As I have thought from the beginning, I think any deal will come in January. It is much easier to 'lower taxes' than to raise them.

See you Sunday evening.




Net Asset Value Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds





Strangers Among Us: The Fatal Allure of False Premises and Unstable Systems - I Am Fishead


People tend to think other people are like them: imperfect, but generally striving to be good.  Faithful in the important things, but weak and error prone in the small.  Our self-view itself is probably a bit of a self-serving self-delusion, but that is a topic for another conversation on some other day. But it does illustrate the need for some external standard, and the rigor of self-examination against it.

As you may have heard or observed, most people tend to write their own faults in water, and carve the failings of others in large letters written in marble.

But there are strangers among us, people who are quite different from most in how they approach things. In fact, the variance amongst people is greater than most will allow in their thinking. Not all people are constructed in the same way.

There are those who are not at all self-regulating in the rational way in which we would like to think we all are.   They may be different genetically, or from the way in which they grew up in their formative years, and most often a combination of both. 

But as in so many cases,  generalizations can lead to convenient assumptions, and those can often prove dangerous.  This can cause us individual problems, as anyone who has dealt with a family member or associate who has a serious problem will know.

But the greatest source of mischief, and too often tragedy, is when we design social constructs and commercial organizations that, for the well-intentioned sake of simplicity, assume that people are rational and reliably good, except for a small and easily identifiable minority of physical criminals.

This may sound obvious enough, but in fact such mistaken assumptions can and do happen.  Certain financial and economic formulations of risk for example, are laughable in their assumptions, but nevertheless obtained widespread acceptance and recognition, before it failed miserably.  Why? For a number of reasons, most of which have to do with practical convenience of thought that gets carried too far.

 People thinking in groups tend to eschew individual common sense, relying instead on a sort of shorthand 'group think' that substitutes for experience and the hard work of individual reason.   We are both emotional and thinking beings, and have our roots in pack behaviour and tribalism. 

The 'tell' for this phenomenon is that when confronted with contrary evidence from real life, they either studiously ignore it, citing largely irrelevant counter examples from biased and carefully chosen sources, or merely brush it aside, falling back on generalizations and above all slogans. And when harsh reality inevitably intrudes, it is met with shock, stubborn resistance, and disbelief.

So, and this is the point of this essay, when thinking about social or corporate organization, bear in mind that there are a small but potentially powerfully focused set of people who will not fall into your neatly reasoned assumptions. And this fact may cause your system to be founded on sand, on a fatal flaw, that may even be promoted by those who view it to their advantage in undermining and abusing that system for their own ends.   This is why they prefer to redesign and reorganize completely instead of reform.  It provides a greater opportunity to construct new loopholes for their own benefit.

No one can make a reliable diagnosis at a distance. We tend to distort and project when observing others. And people operate from a variety of motives and intentions. But that is not the point.

The point is that systems must be designed to be, what Taleb has called, 'anti-fragile,' that is, not so reliant on certain assumed norms to be vulnerable to corruption and collapse. In system design we used to call an effective system that was even incidentally reliable at the stated extremes to be 'robust.'

I believe quite strongly that the story of our own crisis is the failure to remember the lessons from the past, that there are people whom it would be fair to call evil amongst us, an that although they may be intelligent and superficially charming, they are every bit as dangerous, and probably even more, than the killer who wields a knife or a gun. And more than anything else, we have ceased to love the truth, for the sake of winning.
“Above all, don't lie to yourself. The man who lies to himself and listens to his own lie comes to a point that he cannot distinguish the truth within him, or around him, and so loses all respect for himself and for others.

And having no respect he ceases to love.”

― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, The Brothers Karamazov
And that is the descent into Hell.

Here is a brief excerpt from an essay put out by Aftermath, the group founded in part by Robert Hare to assist the victims of psychopathy. It is not intended as a diagnostic tool, because without years of specific training one is not capable of performing such a procedure reliably. But it is educative, to help us to understand that not everyone is the same, not like 'us' if such an 'us' really exists except in broad abstractions.

Below that, for your holiday viewing, I reprise the documentary film, I am Fishead.

Enjoy, and plan accordingly.

"There is a class of individuals who have been around forever and who are found in every race, culture, society and walk of life. Everybody has met these people, been deceived and manipulated by them, and forced to live with or repair the damage they have wrought.

These often charming, but always deadly, individuals have a clinical name: psychopaths. Their hallmark is a stunning lack of conscience; their game is self-gratification at the other person’s expense. Many spend time in prison, but many do not. All take far more than they give.

The most obvious expressions of psychopathy, but not the only ones, involve the flagrant violation of society’s rules. Not surprisingly, many psychopaths are criminals, but many others manage to remain out of prison, using their charm and chameleon-like coloration to cut a wide swathe through society, leaving a wake of ruined lives behind


Key Symptoms of Psychopathy
Interpersonal
Emotional
Social Deviance
Glib and superficialImpulsive
Egocentric and grandiosePoor behavior controls
Lack of remorse or guiltNeed for excitement
Lack of empathyLack of responsibility
Deceitful and manipulativeEarly behavior problems
Shallow emotionsAdult antisocial behavior

Glib and Superficial

Psychopaths are often voluble and verbally facile. They can be amusing and entertaining conversationalists, ready with a clever comeback, and are able to tell unlikely but convincing stories that cast themselves in a good light. They can be very effective in presenting themselves well and are often very likable and charming...

Egocentric and Grandiose

Psychopaths have a narcissistic and grossly inflated view of their own self-worth and importance, a truly astounding egocentricity and sense of entitlement, and see themselves as the center of the universe, justified in living according to their own rules...

Psychopaths often claim to have specific goals but show little appreciation regarding the qualifications required-they have no idea of how to achieve them and little or no chance of attaining these goals, given their track record and lack of sustained interest in formal education...

Lack of Remorse or Guilt

Psychopaths show a stunning lack of concern for the effects their actions have on others, no matter how devastating these might be. They may appear completely forthright about the matter, calmly stating that they have no sense of guilt, are not sorry for the ensuing pain, and that there is no reason now to be concerned...Their lack of remorse or guilt is associated with a remarkable ability to rationalize their behavior, to shrug off personal responsibility for actions that cause family, friends, and others to reel with shock and disappointment. They usually have handy excuses for their behavior, and in some cases deny that it happened at all.

Lack of Empathy

Many of the characteristics displayed by psychopaths are closely associated with a profound lack of empathy and inability to construct a mental and emotional “facsimile” of another person. They seem completely unable to “get into the skin” of others, except in a purely intellectual sense. They are completely indifferent to the rights and suffering of family and strangers alike. If they do maintain ties, it is only because they see family members as possessions...

Deceitful and Manipulative

With their powers of imagination in gear and beamed on themselves, psychopaths appear amazingly unfazed by the possibility, or even by the certainty, of being found out. When caught in a lie or challenged with the truth, they seldom appear perplexed or embarrassed-they simply change their stories or attempt to rework the facts so they appear to be consistent with the lie. The result is a series of contradictory statements and a thoroughly confused listener. And psychopaths seem proud of their ability to lie...

Shallow Emotions

Psychopaths seem to suffer a kind of emotional poverty that limits the range and depth of their feelings. At times they appear to be cold and unemotional while nevertheless being prone to dramatic, shallow, and short-lived displays of feeling. Careful observers are left with the impression they are playacting and little is going on below the surface. A psychopath in our research said that he didn’t really understand what others meant by fear.

Impulsive

Psychopaths are unlikely to spend much time weighing the pros and cons of a course of action or considering the possible consequences. “I did it because I felt like it,” is a common response. These impulsive acts often result from an aim that plays a central role in most of the psychopath’s behavior: to achieve immediate satisfaction, pleasure, or relief.

So family members, relatives, employers, and coworkers typically find themselves standing around asking themselves what happened-jobs are quit, relationships broken off, plans changed, houses ransacked, people hurt, often for what appears as little more than a whim...

Poor Behavior Controls

Besides being impulsive, psychopaths are highly reactive to perceived insults or slights. Most of us have powerful inhibitory controls over our behavior; even if we would like to respond aggressively we are usually able to “keep the lid on.” In psychopaths, these inhibitory controls are weak, and the slightest provocation is sufficient to overcome them. As a result, psychopaths are short-tempered or hotheaded and tend to respond to frustration, failure, discipline, and criticism with sudden violence, threats or verbal abuse. But their outbursts, extreme as they may be, are often short-lived, and they quickly act as if nothing out of the ordinary has happened...Although psychopaths have a “hair trigger,” their aggressive displays are “cold”; they lack the intense arousal experienced when other individuals lose their temper.

A Need for Excitement

Psychopaths have an ongoing and excessive need for excitement-they long to live in the fast lane or “on the edge,” where the action is. In many cases the action involves the breaking of rules. Many psychopaths describe “doing crime” for excitement or thrills... The flip side of this yen for excitement is an inability to tolerate routine or monotony. Psychopaths are easily bored and are not likely to engage in activities that are dull, repetitive, or require intense concentration over long periods.

Lack of Responsibility

Obligations and commitments mean nothing to psychopaths. Their good intentions-”I’ll never cheat on you again”-are promises written on the wind. Horrendous credit histories, for example, reveal the lightly taken debt, the loan shrugged off, the empty pledge to contribute to a child’s support. Their performance on the job is erratic, with frequent absences, misuse of company resources, violations of company policy, and general untrustworthiness. They do not honor formal or implied commitments to people, organizations, or principles. Psychopaths are not deterred by the possibility that their actions mean hardship or risk for others.

Early Behavior Problems

Most psychopaths begin to exhibit serious behavioral problems at an early age. These might include persistent lying, cheating, theft, arson, truancy, substance abuse, vandalism, and/or precocious sexuality. Because many children exhibit some of these behaviors at one time or another-especially children raised in violent neighborhoods or in disrupted or abusive families-it is important to emphasize that the psychopath’s history of such behaviors is more extensive and serious than most, even when compared with that of siblings and friends raised in similar settings...

Adult Antisocial Behavior

Psychopaths see the rules and expectations of society as inconvenient and unreasonable impediments to their own behavioral expression. They make their own rules, both as children and as adults. Many of the antisocial acts of psychopaths lead to criminal charges and convictions. Even within the criminal population, psychopaths stand out, largely because the antisocial and illegal activities of psychopaths are more varied and frequent than are those of other criminals. Psychopaths tend to have no particular affinity, or “specialty,” for one particular type of crime but tend to try everything. But not all psychopaths end up in jail. Many of the things they do escape detection or prosecution, or are on “the shady side of the law.” For them, antisocial behavior may consist of phony stock promotions, questionable business practices, spouse or child abuse, and so forth. Many others do things that, though not necessarily illegal, are nevertheless unethical, immoral, or harmful to others: philandering or cheating on a spouse to name a few..."

The Charming Psychopath: How to Spot Social Predators Before They Attack



27 December 2012

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Deja Vu All Over Again


A baby step higher day in the metals, with more shenanigans likely in the the waning days of this year.

Intraday commentary on the 'December manipulation' phenomenon here.

"Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose."

Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr, Les Guêpes, 1849

There will be no sustainable recovery without genuine reform of the financial and political system. At best, there will be a pale imitation of growth fueled by a pernicious of monetary inflation and the continued financialization of the real economy.




SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Labor's Share of National Income


A wash and rinse day, with the markets going sharply lower on remarks from Senator Harry Reid that he sees no chance of a financial deal before year end.

And in the last hour the market rallied sharply off the bottom, closing almost unchanged for the day, on the news that the House of Representatives will reconvene on Sunday December 30 at 6:30 PM.

I just do not see what they can do, other than to offer to 'kick the can down the road' and take the nation into another crisis, more to their liking, at the next budget ceiling operation early next year.

I suspect the markets will continue to gyrate, as the monied interests and their servants in Washington hold the country hostage, as they did with TARP.

Hang on for a rough ride.

At the bottom is a chart from the Fed's database that shows the latest information on Labor's Share of National Income, which has declined to new postwar lows. 

A greater share of income has gone to those wielding capital.  This has not been positive for aggregate demand or the median wage.  The extractive efforts of the financial and healthcare cartels are taking their toll, slowly but surely.







Net Asset Value Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds


Premiums are certainly not exuberant, but rather to the low end of historic norms.



Gold: This Time Last Year


As you can see, gold had a 'tap tap' bottom at the end of last year, with a final intraday low on the 29th, the second last trading day of the year.

It rallied in January back to where it had been at the beginning of December.

We may be seeing a repeat of what I think is an 'end-of-year' phenomenon this year.

If so, we *might* see one more low this week, probably tied in with some sort of selloff related to the 'fiscal cliff.'

This sort of thing could be government related but it seems more probable that it is related to the gaming of large short positions as they are marked to market at year end. That, and of course, the obvious price manipulation that allows big players to pick up assets like miners and bullion on the cheap.

The 'bombing' of gold with large contract sell orders in quiet periods is leaving tracks all over the tape, that most can see, except if they are willfully blind.

It would not be surprising if we don't see exactly that double tap bottom again this year. We had an odd overnight plunge to 1649 on futures open after Christmas, and that may mark the bottom.  

We *could* go back down to visit there again, and maybe even the prior double low of 1636 from just before the holiday. If it were me I would consider throwing a curve ball. And maybe hit the metals the first week in January very hard if the specs start jumping ahead of the rally early. Its hard to beat the house in the short term, especially when the cards are stacked, and they can see your hand.

But as Eliot Spitzer observed, when he was the NY Attorney General, what surprised them when they broke the investigation of manipulation by the banks was not the cleverness of their schemes, but the obviousness, the heavy handed, almost clumsy thuggery.




'No time for that. Give me a diablo sandwich, a Dr. Pepper, and make it quick. 
What we're dealing with here is a complete lack of respect for the law. '


26 December 2012

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts


The metals were hit hard on the open last night, but went pretty much nowhere today, finishing about even.

The selling will probably be done this week.

Watch out for the 'fiscal cliff' selling which now looks likely.  I don't know if it will hit bullion so much, but it may set up a buying opportunity in some of the miners.





SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - A Weak Market in Dull Holiday Trade


"Most of the time, evil doesn't manifest as some cackling cartoon villain, mad-man on a murderous rampage, or even an unjust war waged on false pretenses. It results instead, in a far more banal but far-reaching way, from the highly refined ideas of men like Robert Bork who value abstract concepts such as efficiency over the effects the programs they institute have on the lives of real human beings."

Angry Bear, An Editorial on Robert Bork and His Legacy




25 December 2012

It's A Wonderful Life: Bedford Falls or Pottersville?


"These men are springs without water and mists driven by a storm. Blackest darkness is reserved for them. For they mouth empty, boastful words and, by appealing to the desires of sinful nature, they entice people who think they avoid error.

They promise them freedom, while they themselves are slaves, for a man is a slave to whatever has mastered him."




Where Are We Heading — Bedford Falls or Pottersville?
By Robert Reich
December 22, 2012

It’s easy to feel discouraged about the bullying by right-wing Republicans and their patrons over everything from gun control to taxes and social safety nets to trade unions and jobs.

Every year about now I watch “It’s a Wonderful Life” again to remind myself what Frank Capra understood about America — its essential decency and common sense.

In many ways the nation is better than it was in 1946 when the movie first appeared. Women have gained economic power and reproductive rights; we enacted Civil Rights and Voting Rights and, through Medicare and Medicaid, dramatically reduced poverty among the elderly; we began to tackle environmental devastation; we stopped treating gays as criminals and have even started to recognize equal marriage rights. We elected and then re-elected the first black president of the United States. We have enacted the bare beginnings of universal healthcare.

But we are still in danger of the “Pottersville” Capra saw as the consequence of what happens when Americans fail to join together and forget the meaning of the public good.

If Lionel Barrymore’s “Mr. Potter” were alive today he’d call himself a “job creator” and condemn George Bailey as a socialist. He’d be financing a fleet of lobbyists to get lower taxes on multi-millionaires like himself, overturn environmental laws, trample on workers’ rights, and shred social safety nets. He’d fight any form of gun control. He’d want the citizens of Pottersville to be economically insecure – living paycheck to paycheck and worried about losing their jobs – so they’d be dependent on his good graces.

The Mr. Potters are still alive and well in America, threatening our democracy with their money and our common morality with their greed.

Call me naive or sentimental but I still believe the George Baileys will continue to win this contest. They know we’re all in it together, and that if we succumb to the bullying selfishness of the Potters we lose America and relinquish the future.



24 December 2012

Joyeux Noël


'Fear not: for, behold, I bring you good tidings of great joy, which shall be for all people. For unto you is born this day, in the city of David, a Savior, who is Christ the Lord. And this shall be a sign unto you; You shall find the babe wrapped in swaddling clothes, lying in a manger.'

And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host, praising God and saying,
'Glory to God in the highest, and on earth, peace towards men of good will.'





Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Christmas Eve


With the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve now committed to printing money without limitation, it is understandable that some attempt is being made to cap gold and silver.

However, I do believe that this capping is secular, as it was last year in December. The 'big shorts' do not wish to mark their accumulated losses to market at a high price, preferring to hide their losses while they trade around them and take positions for the next leg up in higher beta wagers like miners.

Here is a brief comment from Ted Butler:
"The one good thing about this week’s price smash in silver (and gold) is that it should have removed any doubt that it had nothing to do with anything except COMEX price manipulation. By anything I mean the smash had nothing to do with physical market fundamentals or the trading of metals in any other market; this was a COMEX production pure and simple.

It was actually refreshing that it was so clearly a COMEX generated smash, as it made any attempt at alternative explanation look silly. If one doesn’t see that paper COMEX trading was the cause of this week’s sharp price declines, it can only be because of a refusal to see the clear facts.

The fact is that paper positioning on the COMEX silver futures derivatives market is overwhelming the price influence emanating from the host world market for physical silver, or in other words, the tail is wagging the dog. Real supply and demand go out the window and artificial and manipulative pricing have replaced it. The commercial paper traders, led by JPMorgan, are involved in a private big money speculative trading war with other speculative traders called technical funds and that war, because it is so much larger at times, is dictating the price of silver to everyone else in the real world – miners, users and physical investors.

That’s why so many are scratching their heads trying to explain the price swoon this week – it made no sense from a real world perspective. While I was quite upset with the circumstances of this week’s smash, I certainly was not scratching my head as to how it occurred. Hopefully, that goes for you as well. I’ll have much more to say after the usual review.

As I have been reporting, the signals from the real world of physical silver have been unusually bullish in that they all point towards tightness. The signals from the paper market have been bearish, mainly in the form of JPMorgan’s large concentrated short position. This remains the one negative in silver against a wide array of positives.

It came down to which was going to dominate the other in the short term, as in the long term the physical world will win out. It still comes down to paper versus physical to my mind. Clearly, the crooks at JPMorgan and the CME had their way with the price this week, with the wimps and incompetents at the CFTC looking on. It is entirely possible that the crooks may succeed in inducing more technical fund selling with lower prices from here. But there are also increasingly strong signals from the physical silver market that the crooks won’t prevail for much longer."

Three Experts on the Gold/Silver Price Drop

Merry Christmas!






SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts


The US markets were weak in light holiday trade.

The 'fiscal cliff' is unlikely to be resolved until January.

The markets may weaken a little more, but I think we have seen enough for today.

Merry Christmas!




21 December 2012

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Bounce


Another divergence today as gold and silver went higher in a bounce as stocks plunged, particularly overnight.

Today was a quadruple witch. I am sure that thanks to recent market antics those playing the miners on leverage and with options have been eviscerated, which is probably the plan.

A short holiday week or two is coming up. Look for more shenanigans.

Have a pleasant weekend.




SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Quadruple Witch


Today was a quadruple witch for options, and there is a rebalancing of the SP and the Russell after the close.

Stock futures plunged overnight in a flash crash supposedly because Boehner's 'Plan B' was shut down in the House by the Tea Party crowd led by Eric Cantor in a challenge to Boehner's leadership.

Since Plan B was an obvious non-starter all the way around, I viewed the plunge as 'symbolic,' that the market would throw a hissy fit if the Congress does not give them what they demand (again).

But a good part of it was probably option expiration related. These jokers never like to miss a chance to skin the specs, who had been leaning on the long side.

Have a pleasant weekend.




20 December 2012

Front Running the Apocalypse: A 40 Point SP 500 Futures Flash Crash


Maybe someone hit the wrong function key, intending to sell silver in size during a quiet market like they have been doing for the past few weeks.

Or maybe John Paulson is liquidating his equity position. (wink wink, nod nod)

A brief demonstration of Mutually Assured Financial Destruction if they don't cut Granny's pension benefits in order to save the 1 percent's tax cuts?

A junior trader pushed the 'liquidate all' button when he thought he was casting a last minute vote for Tate Stevens?

A particularly odious and obvious stock market manipulation for the option expiration tomorrow?

Front running the Apocalypse?

Uh oh. Boehner's Plan B was rejected by his own party (as if).

See what you made us do when we don't get our way, mommy!?

Bart Chilton, CFTC Commissioner, assures us that an intensive study of this event is already underway.

Sleep well...





Greece's Humiliation: Are the Greek People and Their Nation To Be Sold Into Indentured Servitude?


"The law says, should any future Greek government try to default in any way on its debts – by setting up a debt commission or by any other means, even one accepted by international law and precedent, then Greece chooses to relinquish all claims on the assets of the Greek people and the nation and equally relinquishes all legal protections from its creditors/bond holders."

Golem XIV


"If the Russian people managed to halt and reverse the German torrent at the doors of Moscow, they owe it to the Greek People, who delayed the German divisions long enough so that they could not bring us to our knees."

Georgy Constantinovich Zhoukov


"On the 28th of October 1940 Greece was given a deadline of three hours to decide on war or peace. But even if a three day or three week or three year deadline was given, the response would have been the same.

The Greeks have taught dignity throughout the centuries. When the entire world had lost all hope, the Greek people dared to question the invincibility of the Germans, raising against it the proud spirit of freedom."

Franklin Delano Roosevelt


"Until now we used to say that the Greeks fight like heroes. Now we shall say, that heroes fight like Greeks."

Winston Churchill

I am not familiar enough with international law and debt to know if the terms of this Greek debt deal are truly unique, breaking new ground.

But the terms are striking, and symbolic of the neo-feudal social organization that had been prevalent in the colonial Third World.

It would seem to be better to take the Icelandic option, and leave the Eurozone, and refuse to surrender their sovereignty, though the heaven's fall.

The Humiliation of Greece

It’s not often we get to witness the moment when a leader sells his nation for money. Such a moment occurred in Athens last week.
At the behest and on the authority of Prime Minister Samaras and President Papoulias, an amendment to Greek law was drawn up last week. There was no debate in parliament, the vote is still to be purchased. But unless this amendment is challenged or changed, the change it will bring in will alter the future of Greece and its people every bit as much as the day Greece joined the Euro, perhaps even as much as the day Democracy was re-instated after the long rule of the Generals. Only this change will be a giant step away from Democracy and towards subservience to an unelected elite.
You can read the law in its original here. Here is a translation of the key part.
«The Beneficiary Member State, the Bank of Greece and the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund each hereby irrevocably and unconditionally waives all immunity to which it is or may become entitled, in respect of itself or its assets, from legal proceedings in relation to this Amendment Agreement, including, without limitation, immunity from suit, judgment or other order, from attachment, arrest or injunction prior to judgment, and from execution and enforcement against its assets to the extent not prohibited by mandatory law».
The law says, should any future Greek government try to default in any way on its debts – by setting up a debt commission or by any other means, even one accepted by international law and precedent, then Greece chooses to relinquish all claims on the assets of the Greek people and the nation and equally relinquishes all legal protections from its creditors/bond holders. In other words, if a future Greek government tries to default, Mr Samaras and Mr Papoulias have guaranteed that the Greek people will forfeit and lose any and all rights to their nation’s assets including its national companies and natural resources and the law will not protect them. All those assets will be open to seizure by Greece’s bond holders. The vulture funds, vulturecrats and all the bond holders have been handed a loaded gun and a license to loot.
No nation has ever done this. The question is why are Greek politicians trying to do it and why now?
For the last two years two questions have echoed round and round Europe and occupied the elite who rule/own it – how to stop Greece defaulting and how to recapitalize its banks – so that neither can pull down the things Europe really cares about – Germany’s and Frances’s banks?
I believe passing the above law is an important part of the answer to both those questions. In fact, if passed in to law, it will, I think all but complete a Troika formulated policy begun with the much talked about but little understood, partial Greek default and bond swap, that was the first station of Greece’s cross. What is that policy?
Stop Greece from Defaulting.
There has been and continues to be much talk about ‘helping Greece not to default’. In actual fact there is very little real ‘help’ at least not for the Greek people. The intent of Troika’s policy for Greece has been far more directly to simply ‘stop’ Greece defaulting no matter what harm it does to Greece or its people. The policy has actually been to crucify Greece if necessary, and to deny her, no matter what, the release of default.
I believe this new proposed law is intended to put beyond all reach the release of default.
But first lets clear this law is not a one off. It is a continuation of a policy that the bond swap began. The bond swap dealt with only one part of Greek debt closing off only one potentially open door to default. The present proposed law closes off all the other exits in one stroke.
So let’s start by clearing away some of the misdirection that the mainstream media has so helpfully piled in our way concerning the debt swap that Greece undertook in March 2012 and about which so much has been written. First the debt being swapped was purely Sovereign debt that was held privately. I. E. by banks. So it did not cover sovereign debt held by other nations or central banks, nor any private debt, such as that issued by Greece’s banks. Only sovereign debt held by banks and other financial institutions.
Needless to say the debt/bond holders of those institutions have used every column inch they could buy or influence to tell the approved story of how they, the ‘wealth-producers’ of the world, as they like to style themselves, have been robbed by a nation of feckless, work-shy,’socialistic’, tax-avoiding, recidivist crooks. What actually happened is nearly the opposite.
Certainly, Greece did default/restructure this debt. So on the face of it it cannot be denied that the bond holders took a loss.  But as I have pointed out before, private companies default all the time. Default is not a crime against business, it is part of it. Neither restructuring debt nor defaulting it is  a crime.  Let’s look at the case of Chrysler – again. The management simply did the mathematics and knew that unless they could reduce their burden of debts they would not be able to get out from underneath them in order to make a profit going forward. Given that situation the management (Who by the way were the culpable ones for piling up that much debt) simply said – if we do not reduce this debt then the business is dead. Better to default some of our debt and allow a business that can make money to emerge.
That is all default is. A sensible way out of a disastrous situation.
Now when Chrysler defaulted they forced a settlement on their creditors of 29 cents on the dollar. According to the BIS (Bank for International Settlements)
In February 2012, the Greek government launched an offer to exchange €206 billion of bonds held by private sector investors for new bonds with a face value of about €100 billion.
So Greece offered very nearly 50 cents ‘on the dollar’. To me that’s a bail out in all but name because it is above what the bond holders would have got had they been selling in the open market. The Greek government made no attempt to get the best deal for their people, but instead offered the open hand of generosity for their banker friends while beating down on ordinary Greeks with a closed fist.
But the settlement with the bond holders was never simply about money ‘now’, it was perhaps even more about altering the future. This was a ‘restructuring’ with one purpose – to make future default or restructuring impossible. The bond holders got paid 15% of the face value of their bonds in cash up front. The important point, however, is that the rest of their 50 cents on the dollar came in the form of new bonds issued to replace the old. The important point, perhaps the main point of the exercise was that the old bonds, which were ‘Greek Law’ bonds were replaced by ‘English Law’ bonds. The difference between Greek law and English law bonds is important and valuable to those holding them.
In Greek law bonds there can be are what are called Collective Action Clauses which allow the government to impose on the bond holders an agreement which is binding on them all so long as a majority votes in favour. Thus in a restructuring the government can dictate terms and as long as a majority of the bond holders agree, however reluctantly, the rest have no choice but to acquiesce. This is what Chrysler did. This is exactly what the Greek government did to debt it had issued under Greek Law. In English law these clauses do not appear. Which means that individual bond holders, of debt issued under English law, can hold out against imposed restructurings and refuse to settle. The effect is to make it very difficult for a government to force a settlement on bond holders. Hold-outs can always block it and force a higher price.
What the Greek government did, with the blessing of the Troika, was use the collective settlement not only to offer the holders more than they would have got in the market – which mean as far as the markets were concerned that the banks were better off after the default than before – but to replace all the Greek law bonds which allow restructuring with new English law bonds that make it impossible. The deal made this restructuring the last Greece would be able to do.
So while the mainstream press obediently peddled the ‘poor bondholders being forced to accept default’ story – the real story was that thanks to English law bonds for the old Greek law ones, no future Greek government that was not convinced of the merits of destroying Greece for the sake of Europe’s big banks, or wanted to re-negotiate – like a possible left wing, Syriza government –  no such government, no matter what it promised those who voted for it, could ever again impose a collective default settlement upon the new debts.
The bond settlement was not just about giving to the bond holders it was about taking away from the citizens of Greece. Taking away from them their ability to chose certain futures.
Foreclosing the future 
Now let’s look forward to what might happen if the present coalition were to lose the next election and Syriza were to gain power. The Syriza leader, Mr Alexis Tsipras, has already called for a debt commission, and in any election that call or something similar, will be a central promise of Syriza to the Greek electorate.
But now consider what the chances would be of making good on any such promise. If Syriza were to take exception to the generous deal given to the bond holders and if they tried to change that deal in any way, it would be a technical default and the English law clauses would prevent any new deal being forced on the bond holders. The clause would stop any attempt by Syriza to reduce Greek debt by that route. That avenue was closed when the present government signed its generous restructuring deal.
So much of the ‘poor bond holders’ story. But the bond story only dealt with one part of Greece’s debt. It left untouched the part of Greece’s Soveriegn debt held by governments, central banks like the ECB and Fed, and by other international funders such as the IMF or the various European bail-out funds like the EFSF etc., and did nothing to ‘save’ Greece’s banks from the mountain of bad private debts they still held or which they had pledged as collateral to the ECB. These debts are what new law is for.
The New Law.
On the surface the new law pertains only to the debts of the Greek state and its institutions. And on their debts the proposed new law is rather clear. It says, should any new future Greek government, no matter the mandate given to them in an election, try to default on any of Greece’s remaining sovereign debt, now held mainly held by other governments, central banks and international financial bodies, then the Greek state and the government of the day would have no protection in law against suits brought against them nor even against injunctions served to restrain their assets prior to an actual judgement. This means a Greek government would not even be able to fight such a case because while they were trying to fight, all their sovereign assets would already be frozen.
IF a Greek government tried to default not only would it not be able to force a settlement on its English law bond holders, but nations and central banks to whom it owed money would simply be able to claim and then seize Greek national assets. They could start with those already held by them, such as Greece’s gold held abroad, but also claim ownership of any other asset such as Greece’s infrastructure of roads, rail, power, water, oil and lands.
In one fell swoop the new law would radically alter the situation of those institutions, such as the ECB, who are sitting on billions of Greek government bonds pledged as collateral by Greek banks. Up till now a default would have left the ECB, like everyone else, holding worthless paper and heading for the nearest court to file suit in the hope of eventually getting a judgement in their favour. Whose court and what judgement  no one has been clear about. In short the EBC and everyone else were holding debt that was not secured against any specific claim against Greece’s assets. They were, in effect, unsecured bond holders. The ECB would not like to see it that way but I think that is how it is.
The new law changes this. And I think the European poweres are well aware of this and it is why they insisted on this law being written. For let us be clear this law was created by the Troika for the precise purpose I have outlined. The law, or the idea of it, was there in the 400 pages of the memorandum that was drawn up to govern the Greek bail out back in February. The eventual adoption of the law, is there in the fine print as one of the preconditions for the bail out to be fully released. And now the Greek quislings have done their master’s bidding.

Because if the law is adopted, then suddenly, in a default, every one of the Troika institutions could point to Greek law and say, by your own sovereign law the Greek bonds/debt we are holding are secured against your national assets. Any default and the ECB could claim whatever it wanted to cover the value of the bonds it held. My guess is the ECB might fancy Greece’s financial sector, thus making the running of Greece’s economy from Frankfurt much easier than it is now.
Of course a Greek government would not have to roll over and agree. A Greek government could still alter the law and say we are still ‘the will of the people’ and we will not surrender any assets no matter what your claim. But in return Greece’s gold would be seized as would any other Greek sovereign assets held abroad. Greece would also find suits imposed on any banks that tried to do business with them. The suits would all be based on the new, proposed law.
Taken together the earlier bond settlement, replacing Greek law bonds with English law bonds, plus the as yet to be voted upon new law would make it almost impossible for an any future Greek government, to ever again default or restructure sovereign debt. Together they are, I think, how the Troika plans to stop, prevent, and outlaw Greek people determining their own future..
This is how the Troika intends to crucify Greece...

Read the entire essay here.