20 April 2010

SP Futures, NDX Futures, US Dollar, No Sell Signals Yet


The big drop in the SP 500 last Friday triggered by the Goldman fraud charges was not confirmed at all by the NDX.

The SP 500, rightly or wrongly, is where much of the market manipulation of stocks is said to occur. It is a lead index for us, but we watch the NDX along side it, and vice versa. A genuine change in trend must be confirmed before we would take positions in size against the prior trend.



Bullish sentiment is starting to roll over. It has not yet challenged a level that would signal a bearish reversal. It is enetered a period of consolidation and sideways chop. If it penetrates the second moving average band it would be a strong trend change signal.



The US Dollar as measured by the DX Index is in a consoldiation within its uptrend. It has not yet broken serious support to signal a change in trend.