31 January 2011

SP 500 and NDX March Futures Daily Charts - End of Month and January Indicator

The futures achieved a nice bounce off the big dip this morning to close the month on a positive note. As January goes, so goes the year, and it appears that we are in for eleven more months of clumsy price manipulation, central bank subsidies for their pals on the Street, and accounting fraud.

I might have been more impressed if the VIX had fallen more, if tech had followed more strongly instead of the usual SP futures wiseguy jam-boree, and if the stock touts were not out so aggressively and desperately banging their drums with the same old clichés to entice mom and pop to take the handoff here. Stocks are good for 10% per year, so just close your eyes and buy (now). That is what passes for financial wisdom on the extended informercial that is US financial television.

The divergence between the SP and the Russell is worth watching. The SP 500 tends to be a showpiece for the carnies to lure in the fish. And that divergence became a small chasm around mid-month and never really recovered.

Thin market, suseceptible to exogenous shocks. Maybe it will grind higher, but I do not like it. I put stocks shorts back on today on the late day strength after having taken down all my gains on Friday afternoon. These are balanced with a slightly different beta mix of some select longs in the precious metals sector.