28 August 2014

NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds - Currency Wars Enflammé

"Among the calamities of war may be justly numbered the diminution of the love of truth, by the falsehoods which interest dictates and credulity encourages."

Samuel Johnson

There is a very little bit of a 'flight to safety' today as the war of words in the Ukraine heats up.  Propaganda is flying hot and heavy from both sides of that border. 

Equities are downright complacent, and the precious metals are capped with fair regularity.  All is good, nothing to see here.  Move along.

This entire episode seems to be a manifestation of the keen disappointment that Uncle Sam felt when Russia started refusing to play ball with the Anglo-Americans in any number of areas, from dissidents to global economics.  In some ways this can be seen as the last gasp of the extended British Empire, with America and France on board along with the usual suspects.

The Yanks keep waving the NATO flag, but the Russians call that coalition FUKUS:  France, UK, US.   Of note is the absence of Germany in that analysis.  Germany is a pivot point.

There is certainly a difference of opinions and interests.  China is quiet, but I think we know where they are likely to be positioned.  If you understand the moves on both sides within the context of the currency war things make quite a bit more sense than otherwise.

This is not to say that Russia and China are the 'good guys' in this, not one bit.  I tend to see this as competing power blocs, or crime families if you will.  I don't see much altruism or activity on the moral high ground by anyone.  We live in a particularly self-centered and cynical time.

What we are seeing in so many areas at once is an extension of philosophy and objective expressed in The Project for the American Century, and a fairly cynical one at that. The neo-cons will work with extreme jihadists in the Mideast and crypto-fascists in Eastern Europe. 

Big Money and the will to power have no loyalties except to themselves and will gladly fight to the last drop of your blood.  I don't see many good actors in this scenario on either side.

I am reminded of this wonderful section and quote from Nomi Prins' new book, All the President's Bankers about the lead up to WW I.
“The war should be a tremendous opportunity for America.”

Jack Morgan, of JP Morgan in a personal letter to President Woodrow Wilson, September 4, 1914
I have written before about the striking parallels between Obama and Wilson.

A real flight to safety would crush the precious metal shorts if it spills over from paper to the bullion markets.  And so I would look for the Banks to do all that they can to avoid it, diffuse it, deflect that possibility.

Premiums are a bit low on the Central Funds.   Sprott Silver is a bit wide on the premium, especially with the likelihood of a secondary offering increasing.