19 December 2017

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Winding Down - That Mourns In Lonely Exile Here

“Christmas is built upon a beautiful and intentional paradox;  that the birth of someone homeless should be celebrated in every home...

The place that the shepherds found was not an academy or an abstract republic, it was not a place of myths allegorised or dissected or explained or explained away.  It was a place of dreams, come true.”

G.K. Chesterton

Who could have seen this coming, indeed.

This is likely to be a quiet trading week with an upwards drift.

It was 60 degrees here, and I was out cleaning up the yard, wearing shorts. lol

The artificially low volatility in the stock and bond markets is a symptom of the broad mispricing of risks.

Partly this is because the Fed is raising rates in what can best be described as a 'low inflation' environment, while continuing to ride a big tranche of hot money in too few hands that has proven over and again its propensity for corruption and market manipulation.

Now, we here understand why the Fed is actually raising rates. It is so that they can lower them, when their latest asset bubble bursts, again. God forbid that they should go to the root of it, and correct the malinvestments of the bubble economy there.

But the market is reading this, perhaps willfully, as the Fed not being serious about their 2% inflation target. Or their regulatory responsibilities. And their vigilance on wage increases again shows how badly they are managing monetary policy. What is missing from this long, long 'recovery' is well-paying job growth.

Top down stimulus and policy management does not work, and has not worked for the past twenty or thirty years or so. But it serves the one percent. And so it is likely that they and their body servants in the Congress and the Washington bureaucracy will continue to push the envelope on this policy error until something breaks.

There is ample historical precedent for it.

The House voted for the tax bill today.  But their version would not work under Senate rules, so they will have to take another go at it tomorrow.

Apple stock received a 'rare downgrade' today.   The hour is growing late.  Time to take some money off the table and go home.

Have a pleasant evening.