Latest Shanghai Gold Withdrawals Cross the 10,000 Tonne Mark - 2013 a Pivotal Year

In the first chart we see that there were about 57 tonnes of gold bullion withdrawn from the SGE into China in the latest week.  This is not 'official reserves' but all gold without regard to the receiving party.

This pushes the cumulative withdrawals of Shanghai gold over the 10,000 tonne mark.  Not bad for less than seven years in the business.

This does not include gold that flows through Hong Kong, or through any other non-exchange means purported to be used by the People's Bank of China.

On the second chart you can see that Year-To-Date Shanghai has released 2,119 tonnes into China.  Compared to prior years 2015 is clearly going to be a new record if the withdrawals maintain this pace.

One thing that struck me on that second chart tonight is that Shanghai withdrawals took a definite leg up in 2013.

This is also the same year that the price of gold in Dollars was smacked lower, and the ratio of potential claims to registered gold on the Comex began to climb, and eventually start to go parabolic this year.

Perhaps the bullion bank apologists and shills are right, and this is all just meaningless, an optical illusion, or some fantasy.  Gold is just like pet rocks,  and the majority of the people in the world, and throughout recorded history for that matter,  are just confused and demented.

As I mentioned earlier this evening, the tails risks look rather fat.  One might wonder that even a dingy gray swan with a weak wing could trigger a fairly impressive set of 'unforeseeable incidents.'

They'll never learn.  Why should they?  Winning....

But perhaps we are much closer to the end of this than most people might imagine.  Given the explosive ingredients in place it may be hard to miss.


Related: LBMA Apparently Altered Its Gold Flow By 2,200 Tonnes


These charts are from Nick Laird at Goldchartsrus.com.

LBMA Apparently Altered Its Gold Refining Flow Statistics By 2,200 Tonnes

Ronan Manly has published a fascinating analysis of the LBMA gold refining statistics today.

The gold refined by LBMA 'good delivery' refiners is sometimes involved in converting existing gold bars into kilobars which are suitable for export to the Asian Markets.

Ronan Manly offers quite a bit of detail with regard to a very large revision in the LBMA 2013 refining data and suggests that such a large restatement of gold statistics, almost 1/3, without explanation, seems odd.

The supposition is that the LBMA originally counted gold bars that were taken from existing sources, such as their own stores, ETFs, and the Bank of England and re-refined them into kilobars for delivery into Asia.  Later they restated the number much lower, by 2,200 tonnes.   We have not been given the exact reason for this, but one suggestion is that the gold did not come from new mining or traditional recycling.  And the LBMA was reluctant to advertise such a huge spike in gold refining spurred on by Asian demand.

Depending on how the GFMS and the WGC uses the statistics and sources, this could result in a significant (~2,200 tonnes) understatement of the flow of gold from Western sources into Asia in just that one year.  Considering how tight gold supplies have been this might explain quite a bit.

What exactly is the LBMA policy decision here, and what about subsequent years of 2014 and 2015?

What is the source of this gold?  And what is so special about 2013?

The one thing that seems significant about 2013 is that the price of gold was hit rather hard by selling after hitting a peak in 2012, and the total amount of gold held in Western depositories and ETFs dropped considerably concurrent with that hit in price.  A chart is included below for your convenience.

So far we have more questions than answers.  Perhaps more information will be forthcoming.  I am given to understand that the LBMA is not open to discussing the matter.

I have my own hypothesis.   There was a major effort to hold down the price of gold in 2013 after it had run to a new high.  That effort to suppress the price resulted in a huge spike in physical demand from China.

'Stopgap measures' were taken to meet that physical demand, but without allowing the price to increase.

As more and more gold was shaken loose from various sources, a campaign of stifling Western interest in gold was undertaken to permit even more gold to be taken out of ETFs and repositories.

However, the demand from China and India were not passing events, and have continued until even now. And so the stopgap measures of 2013 have turned into an ongoing shuffling around of existing bullion to try and keep the price of gold from running higher, and threatening some of the bullion banks and institutions who cannot possibly replace all that has been loaned out and sold at anything near today's prices.

Or it *could* be something else entirely.  Time will tell I am sure.  But I think that there are now two events that might be remembered as potentially pivotal:  one in 2007 in which the world's central banks became net buyers of gold for the first time in about thirty or more years, and 2013, in which the flow of gold from West to East put the Gold Pool into unsustainable endgame from which it could not recover without allowing prices to eventually run higher.

Ronan Manly suggests that he will have a follow up article explaining his own analysis, and I will most likely defer to his more informed judgement and wait to see what he says.  I do not have all the information and a few things still puzzle me a bit.  But  I do congratulate him on finding this and writing it up so well with so much thought.

For the detailed analysis about what happened read the entire piece Ronan Manly, The LBMA’s shifting stance on gold refinery production statistics

This is a quote from his article:

"There are 2,200 tonnes of 2013 gold refining output in excess of combined mine production and scrap recycling being signalled within the 6,601 tonnes figure that was removed from the LBMA’s reports on 5th August 2015.

Could it be that this 6,601 tonne figure included refinery throughput for the huge number of London Good Delivery gold bars extracted from gold ETFs and LBMA and Bank of England vaults and converted into smaller gold bars in 2013, mainly using LBMA Good Delivery Swiss gold refineries? And that maybe this 6,601 tonne figure stood out as a statistical outlier for 2013 which no one wanted to talk about?

The objectives of HM Treasury’s Fair and Efficient Markets Review (FEMR) include transparency and openness. It would appear that altering already published gold refinery statistics, especially for 2013, seems not to be in the spirit of these FEMR objectives.

Part 2 of this analysis of the LBMA’s 2013 gold refinery statistics looks behind the 6,601 tonne number at the phenomenon of Good Delivery bars being processed through the Swiss gold refineries in 2013, the gold withdrawals from the London-based gold ETFs, and the huge shipments of gold from the UK to Switzerland in 2013. Part 2 also examines the 2013 withdrawal of gold from the Bank of England, and how GFMS and the World Gold Council tried to, or tried not to, explain the non-stop processing of Good Delivery gold bars into smaller finer kilobars during 2013."

Related follow up article from Ronan Manly:  How Many Gold Bars Are In the London Vaults

Fed Earmarked Gold Holdings Continued to Decline In October

Nemo debet esse judex in propria causa.

Earmarked gold at the Federal Reserve dropped 42 tonnes for the month of October as foreign countries repatriate their gold.

Despite these declines the Fed's earmarked holdings are quite substantial to say the least.  

One has to wonder why the German people are not able to get back their gold for seven years. 

Why would the US raise such a fuss about returning it, if they still have over 6,000 tonnes of other people's gold in their accounts?

Are they 'managing' this gold held in custody?  Are they receiving and sharing returns from it? Or is it just idly sitting their in storage?

Is it all still physically there, and unemcumbered by multiple claims?

Something does not quite add up.   Let's check the latest audit.  The Fed does not allow itself to be subject to independent audits.   They demand our trust.

"Justice must not only be done, but must be seen to be done."

They are independent of the law, and beyond good and evil.

Related: Simon Johnson, The Federal Reserve's Escape From New York

Dutch Quietly Repatriate 120 Tonnes of Gold From New York

It looks like the Dutch brought back 120 tonnes of their gold from New York while no one was looking.

From the Ukraine, with love?  Perhaps they contributed their 30 tonnes which was last seen headed West on a night flight in April.

Meanwhile Germany obediently waits, for years, and the Swiss dither.

The Wall Street Banks thank you for your patience.   Have a nice day.

DutchNews.nl

Dutch bring 120 tonnes of gold back to Amsterdam from New York

November 21, 2014

The Dutch central bank has secretly brought a large part of the national gold reserves being held in a secure depot in New York back to Amsterdam. In total, 120 tonnes of gold valued at €4bn has been brought back to the Netherlands by ship, Nos television said.

The high security reparations for the move took months. The central bank decided to bring some of its gold reserves back to the Netherlands to ensure a better spread, the bank said in a statement. In addition, the bank hopes to boost consumer confidence by showing there is enough gold in the Netherlands to take the country through a new economic crisis.

Now 31% of the Dutch gold reserves are in Amsterdam, the same percentage as in New York. The rest is in Ottowa and London. The Netherlands has 612 tonnes of gold – worth €19bn at current gold prices, Nos said.