Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - When Majesty Falls Into Folly

 

“There was a rich man whose land produced a bountiful harvest.  He asked himself, ‘What shall I do, for I do not have space to store my harvest?’ And he said, ‘This is what I shall do: I shall tear down my barns and build larger ones. There I shall store all my grain and other goods and I shall say to myself, 'Now as for you, you have so many good things stored up for many years, rest, eat, drink, be merry!'  But God said to him, ‘You fool, this very night your life will be demanded of you; as for the things you have prepared, whose will they be?’

Luke 12:16-20

"Having fallen from the eternal, the evil one's desires are endless, insatiable. Having fallen from pure Being, he is driven by the desire to possess, to fill his emptiness. But the problem is insoluble, always. He is compelled to have and to hold, to possess and consume, and nothing else. All he takes, he destroys."

Denis de Rougemont

"Folly is a more dangerous enemy to the good than evil.  One can protest against evil; it can be unmasked and, if need be, prevented by force.  Evil always carries the seeds of its own destruction, as it makes people, at the least, uncomfortable.  Against folly we have no defence.  Neither protests nor force can touch it; reasoning is no use; facts that contradict personal prejudices can simply be disbelieved — indeed, the fool can counter by criticizing them, and if they are undeniable, they can be just pushed aside as trivial exceptions.

 If we are to deal adequately with folly, we must understand its nature. This much is certain, that it is a moral rather than an intellectual defect.  They are under a spell, they are blinded, their very nature is being misused and exploited.  Having thus become a passive instrument, the fool will be capable of any evil and at the same time incapable of seeing that it is evil.  Here lies the danger of diabolical exploitation that can do irreparable damage to human beings."

Dietrich Bonhoeffer, After Ten Years, December 1942

"No warning will suffice to powerful fools who, driven mad by hubris and lust for power, weave the hangman's ropes of their own destruction.  They preach the necessity of hardness, and practice the circumvention of the law for themselves and their associates in injustice.

But when the reckoning comes for them, as it eventually does, they always seem astonished, but unfortunately never to the point of speechlessness. They will harangue fortune, and all those imaginary enemies who conspired to their downfall, to the bitter end.  The Western elite are in a denial, and a bubble of delusion, so profound that I am concerned that when reality intrudes their reaction will be mishandled, provocative, and likely to hasten a generational change that is already occurring and being fiercely resisted, slowly."

Jesse, Complicity of the Advantaged in the Nakedness of Kings, 19 February 2015

 

The stock that the world awaited, Nvidia reported a decent beat of the revenue and earnings estimates after hours.

It was enough so that the stock did not sell out, but not enough to boost the stock appreciably.

So stocks overall finished pretty much unchanged today, after some continuing weakness in the earlier trade.

Gold finished unchanged as well, with silver down a bit.

VIX fell.

The US markets continue on pretty much in a bubble of their own, without much of a care.

The US vetoed another UN proposal for a cease fire in Gaza.  

It was the sole objection although the UK voted to abstain.

The extradition hearing for Julian Assange in London continues.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - At the Time of the Lord

 

"They have acted shamefully, committing abominations,
    yet they are not ashamed,
    and do not even know how to blush.
Therefore they will fall among the fallen;
    at the time I visit them they shall be brought down,
    says the Lord."

Jeremiah 6:15

"The difference between patriotism and nationalism is that the patriot is proud of his country for what it does, and the nationalist is proud of his country no matter what it does; the first attitude creates a feeling of responsibility, but the second a feeling of blind arrogance that leads to war."

Sydney J. Harris, Personal Prejudices, 1953

"Nemesis, the goddess of retribution and vengeance, the punisher of pride and hubris, waits impatiently for her meeting with us."

Chalmers Johnson, Nemesis: The Last Days of the American Republic, 2007

"Evil when we are in its power is not felt as evil, but as a necessity, or even a duty.  Human beings are so made that the ones who do the crushing feel nothing; it is the person crushed who feels what is happening.  As soon as men know that they can kill without fear of punishment or blame, they kill; or at least they encourage killers, with approving smiles."

Simone Weil, Gravity and Grace, 1947

“Religion used to be the opium of the people. To those suffering humiliation, pain, illness, and serfdom, religion promised the reward of an after life.

But now, we are witnessing a transformation: a true opium of the people is the belief in nothingness after death, the huge solace, the huge comfort of thinking that for our betrayals, our greed, our cowardice, our murders, we are not going to be judged.”

Czeslaw Milosz, Discreet Charm of Nihilism, NYRB Nov 1998

Trading is going to be very light this week, likely with an upward bias as we saw in the holiday trade last week, although we may very well see a back and forth action, as the wiseguys continue to reap the investment community and the real economy.

Gold is on the verge of breaking out.  It needs to take out 2080 and go for a run.

The Dollar continues to slump.

VIX remains complacent.  There is little provision being made for an exogenous black swan event, although the probability of one is elevated.   Risk assets are priced for perfection.

Consequences are rarely expected, and those that most deserve them experience the most intense outrage at having received them.   

This is hubris, and its willful blindness.  It brings down the proud and the willful.

Be not deceived, for God is not mocked.  As men sow, so shall they reap.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Where are the Snows of Yesteryear - Götterdämmerung

 

"¿Qué fue entonces del rico y de su poderío
de la vanaglorïa, de su orgulloso brío?
Todo ya es pasado y corrió como río;
de todo su pensar fincó él mucho frío."

Pedro López de Ayala, Ubi sunt


"Beauty is but a flower
Which wrinkles will devour;
Brightness falls from the air;
Queens have died young and fair;
Dust hath close' d Helen's eye.
I am sick, I must die.
Lord, have mercy on us.

Thomas Nashe


"Et Jehanne, la bonne Lorraine,
Qu'Anglois bruslerent à Rouen;
Où sont-ilz, Vierge souveraine?
Mais où sont les neiges d'antan."

François Villon,  Ballade des dames du temps jadis


"Wir sind aus solchem Zeug wie das zu Träumen...
Und drei sind Eins: ein Mensch, ein Ding, ein Traum."

H. von Hofmannsthal


物の哀れ


"For what does it profit a man, to gain the whole world, but lose his soul?"

Mark 8:36


Stocks managed to find a footing and hold an advance higher, going out near those highs of the day. 

Gold and silver were off a bit, despite the Dollar falling quite a bit down into the 103 handle.

The VIX fell back down to its 50 day moving average.

The underpinnings of the economic recovery are as full of holes as the bubbles in equities.

There will be a stock option expiration on Friday.

We have raised a mighty edifice, that overshadows the globe.

Surely we shall endure.  

For are we not wonders, the paragon of history, exceptional?

Have a pleasant evening.

Reprise: The Quiet Coup d'Etat in the Anglo-American Financial System

 

“The fine thing about pacts with the devil is that when you sign them you are well aware of their conditions.   Otherwise, why would you be recompensed with hell?”

Umberto Eco, The Name of the Rose

 

This is a reprise of an interview with MIT economist Simon Johnson which I first wrote about in February, 2009.

 

I think I ought to republish this as a reminder every few years, until reform has been achieved, or until the Internet as we know it goes dark.

 

Have we heeded Simon Johnson's warning? Has he proven to be prescient? Is crony capitalism and the kleptocracy becoming bolder, more aggressive, ever more demanding?

"I think I'm signaling something a little bit shocking to Americans, and to myself, actually. Which is the situation we find ourselves in at this moment, this week, is very strongly reminiscent of the situations we've seen many times in other places.

But they're places we don't like to think of ourselves as being similar to. They're emerging markets. It's Russia or Indonesia or a Thailand type situation, or Korea. That's not comfortable. America is different. America is special. America is rich. And, yet, we've somehow find ourselves in the grip of the same sort of crisis and the same sort of oligarchs...

But, exactly what you said, it's a small group with a lot of power. A lot of wealth. They don't necessarily - they're not necessarily always the names, the household names that spring to mind, in this kind of context. But they are the people who could pull the strings. Who have the influence. Who call the shots...

...the signs that I see this week, the body language, the words, the op-eds, the testimony, the way they're treated by certain Congressional committees, it makes me feel very worried.

I have this feeling in my stomach that I felt in other countries, much poorer countries, countries that were headed into really difficult economic situation. When there's a small group of people who got you into a disaster, and who were still powerful. Disaster even made them more powerful. And you know you need to come in and break that power. And you can't. You're stuck....

The powerful people are the insiders. They're the CEOs of these banks. They're the people who run these banks. They're the people who pay themselves the massive bonuses at the end of the last year. Now, those bonuses are not the essence of the problem, but they are a symptom of an arrogance, and a feeling of invincibility, that tells you a lot about the culture of those organizations, and the attitudes of the people who lead them...

But it really shows you the arrogance, and I think these people think that they've won. They think it's over. They think it's won. They think that we're going to pay out ten or 20 percent of GDP to basically make them whole. It's astonishing....

...these people are throughout the system of government. They are very much at the forefront of the Treasury. The Treasury is apparently calling the shots on their economic policies.

This is a decisive moment. Either you break the power or we're stuck for a long time with this arrangement."

Bill Moyer's Journal - Interview with Simon Johnson, February, 2009.

Johnson also wrote a piece in the Atlantic Magazine titled The Quiet Coup. It may be worth re-reading.

"I am not so optimistic that this reform is possible, because there has in fact been a soft coup d'etat in the US, which now exists in a state of crony corporatism that wields enormous influence over the media and within the government.

Let's be clear about this, the oligarchs are flush with victory, and feel that they are firmly in control, able to subvert and direct any popular movement to the support of their own fascist ends and unslakable will to power.

This is the contempt in which they hold the majority of American people and the political process: the common people are easily led fools, and everyone else who is smart enough to know better has their price. And they would beggar every middle class voter in the US before they will voluntarily give up one dime of their ill gotten gains.

But my model says that the oligarchs will continue to press their advantages, being flushed with victory, until they provoke a strong reaction that frightens everyone, like a wake up call, and the tide then turns to genuine reform."

As far as I can tell, we are right on track for a very bad time of it. And you might be surprised at how far a belief in exceptionalism and arrogant superiority can go before it finally ends, or more likely, fails.

“Hubris calls for nemesis, and in one form or another it's going to get it, not as a punishment from outside but as the completion of a pattern already started.”

Mary Midgley

Nero: And They Who Would Be As Gods

"Do not suppose, I pray, that I am offended because you killed your mother, your wife, and your brother; that you burned Rome and send to the darkness all the honest men in your lands.

No, heir of Chaos. Death is the inheritance of men; from you other deeds could not have been expected. But to destroy one's ear for whole years with your poetry, to see your big belly on slim legs whirled about in a Pyrrhic dance; to hear your music, your dramatic orations, your doggerel verses, wretched poet of the suburbs, — is a thing surpassing my power, and it has roused in me the wish to die.

The capitol stuffs its ears when it hears you; the world reviles you. I can blush for you no longer, and I have no wish to do so. The howls of Cerberus, the dog of the underworld, though resembling your music, will be less offensive to me, for I have never been the friend of Cerberus, and I need not be ashamed of his howling.

Farewell, but make no music; commit murder, but write no verses; poison people, but do not dance; be an incendiary, but do not play on a harp. This is the wish and the last friendly advice sent to you by me —

Petronius, Arbiter Elegantiae.”

Henryk Sienkiewicz, Quo Vadis

"I am freeing man from the restraints of an intelligence that has taken charge, from the dirty and degrading self-mortification of a false vision called conscience and morality, and from the demands of a freedom and independence which only a very few can bear...

The law of selection justifies this incessant struggle, by allowing the survival of the fittest. Christianity is a rebellion against natural law, a protest against nature. Taken to its logical extreme, Christianity would mean the systematic cultivation of human failure.”

A. Hitler


"And advanced forms of biological warfare that can target specific genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool. This is merely a glimpse of the possibilities inherent in the process of transformation, not a precise prediction. Whatever the shape and direction of this revolution in military affairs, the implications for continued American military preeminence will be profound.

As argued above, there are many reasons to believe that U.S. forces already possess nascent revolutionary capabilities, particularly in the realms of intelligence command and control, and long range precision strikes.

Indeed, these capabilities are sufficient to allow the armed services to begin an interim, short-to-medium-term process of transformation right away, creating new force designs and operational concepts – designs and concepts different than those contemplated by the current defense program – to maximize the capabilities that already exist. But these must be viewed as merely a way-station toward a more thoroughgoing transformation."

The Project For a New American Century, Rebuilding America's Defenses


"Heroes. Victims. Gods and human beings.
All throwing shapes, every one of them
Convinced he's in the right, all of them glad
To repeat themselves and their every last mistake,
No matter what."

Seamus Heaney, The Cure At Troy

Oxford Union Debate On Snowden: And Chris Hedges On Civil Disobedience

The Oxford Union Debate on the question "Is Edward Snowden a Hero?" is quite interesting, and I am glad that they have made the individual contributions available on youtube. I wish they had made it available as a whole piece, but this will have to do.

It was a formal debate, and so we see the usual rhetorical ploys here and there.  A Mr. Crowley, speaking against, tried to make the case that only history can pass a judgment on Mr. Snowden. He threw in a little fear, uncertainty and doubt as well. One can always argue that time is needed to make any decision, so it is a bit of a red herring and somewhat cheap, but nevertheless it was nicely done.

Of all the negative arguments,  Mr. Toobin makes the most representative and pertinent case, with the usual amount of diversions and rhetorical equivalences, which is basically what the US government takes as their perspective in this.  I believe those fellows interrupting him are the 'judges' of debates, who can push a bit on things that are unclear, which is a polite way of saying 'howlers.'  But I could be mistaken. 

I have never attended an Oxford debate, but I have visited there numerous times. I have a framed needlepoint framed, compliments of a talented relative, hanging in my study.  I sketched it from one on the kneelers in Newman's church, St. Mary's, that has the Oxford motto, Dominus Illuminatio Mea.  The Lord Is My Light.

The positive side of the question carried the day and quite well. I suggest you listen to all the presentations, as you may find others that you like more, and that offer insights for your own thought.  You can search for them using Google, and typing in search words like "Oxford Union Debate Snowden youtube videos" for example. You can also try the Oxford Union youtube channel which I have just found here.

I wanted also to highlight Mr. Hedges' presentation, because in it he speaks to the much broader and more interesting subject, that of civil disobedience which he calls 'moral courage.' At first it rankled a bit that he distinguished such courage from that shown on the battlefield, but then as I listened his point became clear. And as always, his speaking style and literary allusions are quite pleasant to hear.

I regret that the modern news in the US does not offer such interesting forums for discussion, instead staging 'debates' between two paid actors who merely yell at one another.

One thing that never came out explicitly in the debate, at least in the portions which I have read or heard so far, is the concept of natural law. There are the laws of a nation, and in terms of strict legality, things which are done there may be judged illegal or lawful, based on those laws.

But what happens when a country grossly violates human rights, for example, under the aegis of their laws? Are they protected? Are those who follow those laws merely following the law, or orders, if you will?

Under the laws of the Reich, Sophie Scholl committed treason, judged by a lawful court, and was duly beheaded. A German lawyer emailed me some time ago and made that case quite forcefully. 

But those who did the judging and the beheading were later themselves convicted of a number of crimes, including crimes against humanity, and conspiracy to wage aggressive war among them, that were extra-legal to the Reich, and any written body of laws of which I am aware. They were judged guilty under the laws of what is moral, or the natural laws. It is the appeal to these overarching natural laws that Jefferson appealed when he wrote, "We hold these truths to be self-evident..."

It is an interesting concept. Martin Luther King directly attributes it to Divine Providence, in one of his most famous speeches which I almost never tire of excerpting, as I do in the last video below.  It is why he gave up his life, after all.

If we did not have a Constitution in the US, it might be necessary to engage in this discussion. But since the Constitution is quite clear on any number of these points, and the distribution of power, and oversight and transparency, and supremacy of individual rights, we need not worry perhaps.

Except for those who would hide and deceive and ride roughshod over what the narrowly legal mind and the flourish of rhetoric can consider just 'another piece of paper' when weighed on the expedient scales of the scheming mind, servile apathy, and the will to power.





I have just found Mr. Binney's presentation here.    Although it was dry, sometimes disjointed, and a bit technical, it was nevertheless interesting because he has quite a few of the facts and history of these programs at his fingertips through personal experience.

I thought Chris Huhne gave a nice summation for the proposition here. I include it because this meme that Snowden purposely fled to Moscow to live there is quite irritating. He was trapped there because the US yanked his passport, and through pressure even went so far as to stop an official flight carrying the Ecuadoran president in order to prevent his seeking asylum there. How obligingly forgetful and servile the presstitutes in the mainstream media can be when it suits.

NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds - Breaking Bad

There is a blizzard moving into the northeastern US this evening.

It may affect tomorrow's trade in equities.

I had put a decent short position on in the closing minutes of 31 December.  I have taken most of that off the table here and now.

I am long gold and silver bullion.

To my mind, prices were pushed to some short term extremes for the year end tape painting.

I tend to agree with much of Ted Butler's recent analysis titled 2013: The Year of JP Morgan.   If it becomes publicly available I will link to it.  For now it is by subscription only.

Ted thinks that JP Morgan is the major mover in the Comex gold market, executing market corners first to the short and then to the long side over the course of 2013.

They most likely have some privileged knowledge of the market structure and official policy, and perhaps even semi-official support in this, if nothing else than by indirect acquiescence, or turning a blind eye if you will.

Below is a recent video about gold buying in India.  China, southeast Asia, and the Mideast offer similar stories, except that the governments there are not trying to restrict purchasing to please the Western bankers.

Hubris Is the Basis of Tragedy

To the extent that any very serious people take note of this, it is to ignore it, and then deride it. History shows that those who represent fading and unsustainable regimes tend to ignore what is happening, then turn stridently against any opposition to their will by both words and actions. And finally, they lose.

There are some very good reasons why China and India and quite a few of the new emerging economies are seeking safe havens from the dollar. It is not because 'they hate our freedom.' It is not because 'they are ignorant of modern economics.' It is not because 'they are a bunch of gold bugs.'

It is because the Western financial system is a shell game of frauds, and remains largely unreformed, run by and for insiders. Recognition of a fraud first arises at the periphery.

And the dollar has become a major vehicle for exporting these frauds to the rest of the world through the mispricing of risk and the brazen manipulation of price discovery, in many financially related markets. How can anyone continue to ignore and even deny this pervasive and ongoing corruption in the markets?

If you do not understand this, you will probably be able to understand little of what is going on now, and will understand little of what may likely happen over the next few years. I would expect there to be quite a bit of disinformation put forward about it.

To paraphrase Upton Sinclair, sometimes it is difficult to get a man to understand what his career path and his wallet encourages him not to see.

Sometimes, but thank God not always, when flawed characters face a crisis they start breaking bad.  And overcome thereafter by greed, pride, and the will to power, they do not know when  to stop. 

And so they hurl themselves over into the abyss, and take a number of good people with them.

"Who are you talking to right now? Who is it you think you see? Do you know how much I make a year? I mean, even if I told you, you wouldn’t believe it.

Do you know what would happen if I suddenly decided to stop going into work? A business big enough that it could be listed on the NASDAQ goes belly up. Disappears! It ceases to exist without me...

You clearly don’t know who you’re talking to, so let me clue you in. I am not in danger. I am the danger. A guy opens his door and gets shot, and you think that of me? No! I am the one who knocks."

Walter White, Breaking Bad

A Short Video Primer on the US Debt and Deficit, Hubris, and the Credibility Trap

As I have said on many occasions, the problem is not so much this overblown 'fiscal cliff' and 'debt crisis.' These are spurs to desired action from the status quo.

This is almost an exact replay of the Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression, excepting of course that the US now has a manager rather than a leader.

The problem is the lack of reform of a system that is still given over to malfeasance, and remains badly out of balance.

Shifting the damage that has resulted from financial corruption on to the backs of the weak and the public in order to continue to pamper the predatory class is not the answer. It will only make things worse and at some point most likely tear open the social fabric.

Source

A credibility trap occurs when the regulatory, political and informational functions of a society have been compromised by corruption and fraud, so that the leadership cannot effectively reform or even honestly address the situation without impairing and implicating, at least incidentally, a broad swath of the power structure, including themselves.

The status quo tolerates the corruption and the fraud because they have profited at least indirectly from it, and would like to continue to do so. Even relatively honest reformers within the power structure become susceptible to various forms of soft blackmail and coercion.

And so a failed policy and its support system become almost self-sustaining, long after it is seen by the people to have failed, and in failing becomes a counterproductive force on a sustainable recovery. Admitting failure is not an option for those who receive their power from that system.

The continuity of the structural hierarchy must therefore be maintained at all costs, even to the point of becoming a painfully obvious hypocrisy.

The Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustained recovery.

Trading in Hubris: Pride, Overreach, and the Inevitable Blowback and Consequences

"We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics. Out of the collapse of a prosperity whose builders boasted their practicality has come the conviction that in the long run economic morality pays...

We are beginning to abandon our tolerance of the abuse of power by those who betray for profit the elementary decencies of life. In this process evil things formerly accepted will not be so easily condoned..."

Franklin D Roosevelt, Second Inaugural Address, January 1937

The hubris associated with the trading crowd is peaking, and heading for a fall that could be a terrific surprise. It seems to be reaching a top, trading now in a kind of triumphant euphoria after the European capitulation and the recent equity market volatility.

I had a conversation this morning with a trader that I have known from the 1990's, which is a lifetime in this business. I have to admit that he is successful, more so than any of the popular retail advisory services you might follow such as Elliott Wave, for example, which he views with contempt, a useful distraction for the little guy, the same way that casino operators view most gambling systems except counting cards. He is a bit of an insider, and knows the markets internals and what makes them tick. I remember a time when some of the more obvious market shenanigans used to bother his conscience a little. But he is well beyond that point now.

He likes to pick my brain on some topics that he understands much less, such as the economic relationships and monetary developments, and sometimes weaves them into his commentary, always without attribution. He has been a dollar bull forever, and his worst trading is in the metals. He likes to short gold and silver on principle, and always seems to lose because he rarely honors his first stop loss, which is a shocking lapse in trading discipline. That stubbornness is probably what kept him from making top management.

His tone was ebullient. The Street has won, it owns the markets. They can take it up, and take it down, and make money on both sides, any side, of any market move. I have to admit that in the last quarter his trading results are impeccable.

We diverged into the dollar, which he typically views as unbeatable, with the US dominating the international financial system forever. He likes to ask questions about formal economic terms and relationships, or monetary systems and policy. He relies on others for that knowledge, although he almost never admits it and will argue from pure emotion if necessary, until he gets what he wants to know.

I am not a social worker. Its a quid pro quo. He gives me insights into the trading world, and the pits where he dwells. What they are thinking, and what is going around in his crowd, with which I rarely associate these days.

He thinks the euro is done, and the dollar will remain the sole currency. His attitude is, "What will replace it?" He cannot even imagine anything different than what we have today. But interestingly enough he does not believe that the US government is running things. "Things are being run by a new world order, and have been for some time." He said that so matter of factly that it made me catch my breath.

And he's good with that. Does not bother him in the least little bit, as long as he is making money. And that is where our conversation started to go downhill, quickly. I was in no mood to hear his usual perspective on the future and the triumph of the willful.

If there is a new Mussolini in the US to maintain order, he's good with that. If they start putting people on trains to resettlement camps in the southwest, he's ok. If there are starving people in the streets, it doesn't bother him because he lives in a gated community. If the middle class gets crushed by a new market crash that is ok. He made a killing shorting the Crash of 1987, and was able to enjoy the resort where he spent the winter even more than ever because they were so few people there.

I would like to say he is an outlier, a one of a kind. But he is not. He is typical. He is driven purely and almost solely by personal greed, and he makes no bones about it. Life is a war, and he wants to conquer you.

But he is not a monster. If you met him you might like him. He's affable, conservative, a decent conversationalist, and personally well kept and engaging. But he is missing something, like the derivative of a human being. If you talk about the 'bad guys' he doesn't identify with them. He thinks he is 'us.' It's never occurred to him that he is the problem. Because his value system is utterly one dimensional and egocentric. In some ways he is the most intelligent twelve year old I have ever met. But I am sure he considers me a fool and an idealist. And I might agree. But it is not so much who you are, but why. Who or what do you serve?

He is a microcosm of Wall Street, and the prevailing attitudes in the Big Banks in particular. If you wish to form public policy, if you want to create a stable system, one based on human values, never ask a trader or a trading company for advice. They are incapable of framing the question in a way that will provide you a workable answer. What is good is whatever works for them in the most narrow definition of the terms. They think they are being altruistic when they take a little bit of a haircut on terms that are already well into the realm of usury.

The problem is the ability of Wall Street to buy power and influence among the regulators and politicians, and bring their unbalanced world view to bear so heavily on the formation of public policy and governance.

That is not to say that they are necessarily bad people. They are what they are. It's just that they need to be restrained by regulation, and certainly should not be in the driver's seat of anything outside of their own accounts, and those with external supervision and transparency. But certainly not in control of things in general, of running the system by proxy, which is where they are today. Or at least where they think they are.

Goldman trades big, but more probes loom
By Steve Eder
May 10, 2010, 11:55 am EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc on Monday showed how its trading operations are stronger than ever, but warned that more litigation and investigations loom.

Goldman, in a quarterly regulatory filing, said it made it through the first quarter without a single day of trading losses, the first time it had accomplished such a feat. The firm reported trading revenue of more than $100 million on 35 days in the quarter.

In the same filing, Goldman said it still faces a number of probes and reviews, which could be damaging.

It said it anticipates additional shareholder actions and other investigations related to its offerings of collateralized debt obligations, which are at the heart of charges against the firm filed by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Goldman shares have tumbled more than 20 percent since the SEC accused the bank on April 16 of failing to tell investors who bought risky debt tied to subprime mortgages that hedge fund manager John Paulson helped select the underlying portfolio for the security and was shorting the deal.

Goldman shares were up 2.1 percent to $145.99 in morning trading but lagged behind others in the Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index. Equities were rallying after tumbling last week.

Goldman, in its filing, said the SEC case "could result in collateral consequences to us that may materially adversely affect the manner in which we conduct our businesses." It said certain outcomes could impact the firm's ability to act as broker-dealer or provide certain advisory and other services to U.S.-registered mutual funds.

The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Goldman had begun settlement talks with the SEC.

Some analysts and investors have speculated that scrutiny surrounding Goldman would lead to the resignation of Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein. But at the bank's annual shareholder meeting on Friday, Blankfein said he had no plans to resign.

More Investigations

For the past year, Goldman has faced a backlash over its quick rebound from the financial crisis, while benefiting from various government bailout programs, and its bonus pool, which topped $16 billion last year.

Goldman, which reported record profit in 2009, has been trying to live down a Rolling Stone article last year that labeled the firm a "giant vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity"

Its blockbuster trading performance in the first quarter, coupled with the SEC charges, could heighten the public furor surrounding the firm, which has been cast as profiting from the subprime mortgage meltdown.

Goldman, criticized for not disclosing it had received notice last year of the likelihood of SEC charges, discussed several investigations on Monday, including probes by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority and the UK's Financial Services Authority related to CDO offerings and related matters.

The bank said it is cooperating with a number of investigations and reviews into its sales and trading operations related to corporate and government securities and other financial products.

The firm also said it is facing investigations and reviews relating to the 2008 financial crisis, including the establishment and unwinding of credit default swaps with American International Group Inc. Goldman has been criticized for benefiting from the government rescue of AIG.

Inquiries into the financial crisis are also looking at Goldman's transactions with Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers.

Goldman also disclosed that it is subject to inquiries related to its transactions with the government of Greece, including financing and swap transactions.

The Bernanke Deception and the Stirring of American Populism

Chris Whalen captures an interesting aspect of change that not only the august US Senators are missing, but most of the mainstream media in the States as well, at least judging by the discussions on their Sunday political shows. All of them seem equally out of touch, arrogantly aloof and insulated from the mood of the nation.

It is interesting also to hear the financial princes growling from lofty Davos about 'Obama's outburst' regarding the Volcker Rule and the impertinence of the Americans in daring to set national regulations for their banks.

Is this an historic moment? Are the people challenging the rule of a burgeoning financial elite, which is puzzled at the sudden rebellion against their enlightened rule?

I think that the answer might be yes, and this is what Ron Paul alluded to in his video regarding 'revolutionary changes.'

And one can only marvel at the way in which the Democrats are committing political suicide after being handed the reins of power with an overwhelming majority, out of what appears to be sheer, almost incomprehensible arrogance and fundamental incompetence. Watching the toad Geithner testify is painful beyond expression.

Will the Americans lead the storming of the Banking Bastille? And will the cowed Brits dare to defy their ubiquitous surveillance cameras and raise their voices for change?

Surely a politician's worst nightmare, a crisis gone wrong. This is the point at which the people ought to be laying down their liberty for the security of a return to credit lending, and a banking system that defers from crashing their markets.

I also have to wonder how the politicians forget the lessons of the past, and the downfall of once mighty leaders of popular governments. It is never about the first offence, the original act itself which may seem trivial.

What brings down governments is the cover up, the conflicts of interest, the pettiness of tone deaf arrogance, and the ensuing loss of confidence.


Fed Deception of Congress Regarding AIG

"Even as the Senate prepares to vote on the Bernanke nomination, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) has asked the Chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform to subpoena AIG-related documents from the Fed, documents which apparently prove that Chairman Bernanke played a major role in deciding to bail out AIG and, indirectly, Goldman Sachs (GS) and other large bank dealers.

In a January 26, 2010 letter obtained by The IRA, Issa claims that Bernanke overruled a recommendation by Fed staff that AIG be allowed to declare bankruptcy "just like Lehman Brothers" and instead authorized the bailout of the crippled insurance giant over the objections of Fed staff in Washington. The Fed appears to be withholding these documents from Congress until after the Senate votes on the Bernanke nomination.

Rep. Issa, the ranking member of the Committee, refers to a statement by Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY), whose staff has been examining these same documents under strict rules of confidentiality imposed by the Fed's staff, to the effect that Chairman Bernanke overruled the recommendation of his staff and pushed the bailout of AIG. How can the Senate vote on the Bernanke nomination when the Fed is refusing to comde clean on AIG?

Members of the Senate need to ask themselves a question: With the current disclosure by the Fed, what further revelations will surface regarding the central bank, AIG and the bailout of the large New York banks between now and November?

So given the above, why is Chairman Bernanke seemingly en route to confirmation? Why do members of the Senate seem to indifferent to the mounting popular anger at Chairman Bernanke and the Fed? There are several reasons the Senate is making a major political and economic miscalculation in its appraisal of Ben Bernanke's role at the Federal Reserve. The most significant is that Senators think that the Federal Reserve and the bailouts are not voting issues, because there are no traditional organized constituent groups that lobby around them.

Staffers who frame issues for Senators do not know that Fed and its profile in American politics has changed in a way reminiscent of the days of President Jackson and the battle over the Second Bank of the United States. After all, issue groups have an incentive to mislead incumbent Senators in a way biased towards the interest of incumbent financial interests. This is a terrible mistake for the political health of any Senator who wants to get reelected in 2010 or 2012. The bailouts happened from 2008-2009, and voters now understand them and loath them. And this applies equally to Democrats and Republicans in the Senate.

Look at how the Fed and AIG are changing the dynamic for incumbent GOP Senators. Republicans are seeing bailout-themed primary campaigns, where incumbents like Utah Senator Bob Bennett and Arizona Senator John McCain are explicitly attached to the bailouts. As noted above, democrats saw losses in Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts. And Brown voters in Massachusetts showed significant dissatisfaction with Democratic ties to Wall Street. But the same populist wave will carry away Republicans as well.

Bottom line: A "yes" vote for Chairman Bernanke raises the likelihood of defeat for every member of the Senate standing for election in 2010 and 2012. And in any event, the rising tide of popular unhappiness with Washington and Wall Street promises to remake the American political landscape in a way not seen in the post WW II era. The comfortable assumption of stability in American political life is about to be replaced by instability and change, but that is what democracy is all about."

Political Risk: The Bernanke Nomination and the Return of American Populism - Institutional Risk Analyst

Goldman Expects to Keep Cake, Eat Same, Stick Public with Tab

Dick Bove says that Obama's proposal will be good for Goldman Sachs because it will take away the prop trading from banks that have deposits, but will not affect Goldman Sachs who will once again eliminate more competition.

So buy the stock. Hard to imagine anything short of Armageddon that would cause the word 'sell' to emanate from his bloviateness when he is talking his book.

And Goldman Sachs says that it is 'unrealistic' to take away their place at the Fed's teats as a subsidy sucking bank holding company.

"Goldman Sachs Chief Financial Officer David Viniar said it’s “unrealistic” to imagine the firm won’t be a federally supervised bank, even as new regulatory proposals cast doubt on that status."

Perhaps they will lobby for a special category of bank. Some banks are more equal than others? The public might be dumb enough to buy it, but doubtful Lloyd's peers on the Street would not raise a fuss.

More likely that the corrupt Congress takes this idea of Volcker's, and leads it up a blind alley, and strangles it with delays, transitions, and deceptions, and grandiose discussion of new regulatory architectures, rather than simple but elegant focus on primary mission, and the elimination of conflicts of interest.

The threats of 'lack of competitiveness,' 'stifling the recovery,' and 'portfolio diversity' are already resounding from the canyons of Wall Street and their pond skimming sibyls on financial television.

Bloomberg
Goldman Will Benefit From Obama’s Proposal, Bove Says
By Rita Nazareth

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. will benefit from President Barack Obama’s proposal to limit Wall Street risk because it may force deposit-taking banks to unwind trading operations, Rochdale Securities analyst Dick Bove said.

Obama called for limiting the size and trading activities of financial institutions as a way to reduce the risk of another financial crisis. The proposals would prohibit banks from running proprietary trading operations solely for their own profit and sponsoring hedge funds and private equity funds.

He also proposed expanding a 10 percent market-share cap on deposits to include other liabilities such as non-deposit funding as a way to restrict growth and consolidation.

“Banks with large deposit bases have distinct advantages in certain sectors of the market,” Bove wrote in a report today. “If the banks are told they cannot use deposits in this fashion in the future, it ‘levels the playing field’ for companies like Goldman Sachs. This is not a time to sell this stock, it is a time to buy it.”

Goldman Sachs shares erased an early advance as Obama prepared to outline his proposal. The shares lost 4 percent to $161.15 in New York at 2:56 p.m. after rising as much as 1.9 percent at the start of trading.

Bonus Pool Slashed

Goldman, the most profitable securities firm in Wall Street history, reported record earnings that beat analysts’ estimates as the bank slashed its bonus pool. Net income of $4.95 billion, or $8.20 per share, for the three months ended Dec. 31 compared with a loss of $2.12 billion, or $4.97 a share, for the same period in 2008. The average estimate of analysts in a Bloomberg survey was $5.18 a share.

The record profit came as Goldman Sachs, facing criticism from politicians and labor unions for near-record compensation, set aside $16.2 billion to pay employees, the smallest portion of revenue since the firm went public in 1999.

“The adjustment of compensation lower leaves more money for shareholders,” Bove wrote.

Bove said that if the bank had not slashed its bonus pool, earnings may have been only about 3 cents to 5 cents a share in the quarter, “under certain assumptions concerning compensation,” because of a slowdown in trading.

“Investors are reacting sharply to the fourth quarter results at this company,” Bove wrote. “However, all indicators -- M&A, new financings, increasing volatility in a number of markets, growth in the money supply -- all suggest that this quarter may be a one-time event.”

Goldman Sachs Chief Financial Officer David Viniar said it’s “unrealistic” to imagine the firm won’t be a federally supervised bank, even as new regulatory proposals cast doubt on that status.