Showing posts with label misery index. Show all posts
Showing posts with label misery index. Show all posts

13 December 2007

A Snapshot of the US Economy

If we were using the same measures of the economy that the government had in place prior to the Clinton - Bush administrations, the economic picture would be considerably clearer. Here is a quick checklist from John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics:

"We publish an analysis of the government statistics: where they are right, where they are wrong, and the implications if they are wrong, which is generally the case. In fact, what has happened over the years is that changes in methodologies have been implemented in reporting the key statistics, with the effect that economic statistics seem stronger than real growth, and inflation numbers tend to be weaker than reality, enough so that GDP (Growth Domestic Product) is overstated by three percent; the unemployment rate is really up around 12 percent as most people would look at it, and the inflation rate is now topping 11 percent."

Remember Okun's Misery Index?
Inflation Rate + Unemployment Rate = the Misery Index

If we use John Williams' numbers for Inflation Rate and Unemployment the current Misery Index is now at 23, which is worse than anything seen in the Carter stagflationary recession. What Jimmy obviously needed was a staff of more creative accountants and statisticians.

If an economy falls in a forest of deception, and no one sees it happening, do the victims make a sound when they hit the wall?