Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bubble

 

"As a dog returns to its vomit, so a fool returns to his folly. "

Proverbs 26:11

"And in some ways, it creates this false illusion that there are people out there looking out for the interest of taxpayers, the checks and balances that are built into the system are operational, when in fact they're not. And what you're going to see and what we are seeing is it'll be a breakdown of those governmental institutions. And you'll see governments that continue to have policies that feed the interests of -- and I don't want to get clichéd, but the one percent or the .1 percent -- to the detriment of everyone else."

Neil Barofsky, 2012 interview with Bill Moyers

"Now why don't you just take it easy, Group Captain, and please make me a drink of grain alcohol and rainwater, and help yourself to whatever you'd like."

General Jack D. Ripper (Sterling Hayden), Dr. Strangelove

"Where are the leaders? Has our political process become so compromised by powerful interest groups and the threat of character assassination that even the best among us will not dare to speak honestly about the solutions that might bring us back to common sense and fundamental fairness?"

Senator Jim Webb, A Time to Fight, 2008

"General Turgidson, I find this very difficult to understand. I was under the impression that I was the only one in authority to order the use of nuclear weapons."

President Merkin Muffley, Dr. Strangelove

From Wall Street to the White House, it's all about serving the oligarchy, the 1 percent, while maintaing plausible deniability. 

The market came in broadly expecting a whipsaw, with the FOMC standing pat with dovish verbiage, and then Jay Powell coming in and raining on the parade with skeptical cautions.

No way Zimbabwe Jay.  

Although it must be said that the Street took it much further than he allowed.  It reminded me of a college friend who kept seeing 'signs' from a girl for which he pined, but would not actually approach.

I think it would have been interesting to see the FOMC commentary on bubblevision performed by the voice-over actor from The Curse of Oak Island.

Stocks rallied very hard, parabolically surpassing their bubble peaks.

The Dollar dropped off a cliff.

Gold and silver rallied like rockets.

And there is the second phase of the wash and rinse.

VIX did not drop but marked time in place.

Stock option expiration on Friday.

I can feel the hammer getting closer, and closer, to the retail bulls.  

But give it some time.

This is not sour grapes.   I snagged some serious coin in the  miners today, buying them into this recent pounding down the last two days.  It was just too contrived and cliché.  

Pretty much like all the official 'verbiage' we get these days. 

You know how they ran gold up to a new high, ran all the short stops, and then smashed it down into yesterday?

Patented move.   

And I think they may have the same play in store for stocks.  

But timing and leverage are everything.

Meanwhile, we've got two wars a leaping. 

Changed my mind about not using twitter. 

Have a pleasant evening.

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - It Can't Happen Here - And No One Can See It Coming

 

"The time is almost here — and ignorance, falsehood, cruelty, greed and lust of power were never stronger in the hearts of any ruling class in history than they are in those who constitute the Invisible Government of America today.  Day by day the money-masters of America become more aware of their danger, they draw together, they grow more class-conscious, more aggressive. 

The [first world] war has taught them the possibilities of propaganda; it has accustomed them to the idea of enormous campaigns which sway the minds of millions and make them pliable to any purpose. American political corruption was the buying up of legislatures and assemblies to keep them from doing the people's will and protecting the people's interests; it was the exploiter entrenching himself in power, it was financial autocracy undermining and destroying political democracy."

Upton Sinclair, The Brass Check, 1919

 

“Booms start with some tie-in to reality, some reason which justifies the increase in asset values, and then — and this is the critical feature of speculative mood — the market loses touch with reality.” 

John Kenneth Galbraith

 

“A country that tolerates evil means—evil manners, standards of ethics—for a generation, will be so poisoned that it never will have any good end.” 

 Sinclair Lewis, It Can't Happen Here 

 

"Everyone knows that plagues have a way of recurring throughout history, yet somehow we find it hard to believe in the ones that crash down on us out of the sky. There have always been plagues and wars, yet they always take us by surprise. When war breaks out people say it's stupid and won't last long. Stupidity has a knack of getting in the way, which we would see if not wrapped up in ourselves. In this our townsfolk were like everybody else— they did not believe in plagues." 

Albert Camus, The Plague

 

Stocks were hammered in the morning trade, purportedly over concerns about inflation.

Comments from Stanley Druckenmiller about the status of the Dollar contributed to the selling. 

Gold and silver were also caught in the early selling.

However, as the day wore on, the dip-buyers came in, buying up precious metals until they went on to close with decent gains.

I joined a bit in the early dip-buying.  I had waiting for a pullback like this.

Big cap tech also recovered significantly in the afternoon.

The  rest of the equity market not so much. 

I would presume that traders will be watching the consumer inflation data out tomorrow morning.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - A Question of Balance - Reeds, Shaking in the Wind

"Who stands firm?  Only the one for whom the final standard is not his reason, his principles, his conscience, his freedom, his virtue, but who is ready to sacrifice (Latin: an act of worship) all these, when in faith and sole allegiance to God he is called to obedient and responsible action: the responsible person, whose life will be nothing but an answer to God's question and call."

Dietrich Bonhoeffer, Letters and Papers from Prison


“The world says: 'You have needs — satisfy them.  You have as much right as the rich and the mighty.  Don't hesitate to satisfy your needs; indeed, expand your needs and demand more.'  This is the worldly doctrine of today.  And they believe that this is freedom.”

Fyodor Dostoyevsky, The Brothers Karamazov


"One of the elders persevered in a fast of seventy weeks, eating only once a week.  This elder asked God to reveal to him the meaning of a certain Scripture text, but God would not reveal it to him.  So he said to himself: 'Look at all the work I have done without getting anywhere!  I will go to one of the brothers and ask him.'  When he had gone out and was starting on his way an angel of the Lord was sent to him, saying: 'The seventy weeks you fasted did not bring you any closer to God, but now that you have humbled yourself and set out to ask your brother, I am sent to reveal the meaning of that text.'  And he opened to him the meaning which he sought.”

Thomas Merton, Sayings of the Desert Fathers of the Fourth Century

Once again the powers of Davos Man have conquered risk.

This is the exorbitant privilege of the one percent.

Stocks closed at record highs, on less than average volume.

The Dollar and gold rose again, as they was a continuing undercurrent of movement to safe havens.

I have been watching a show on PBS titled Vienna Blood. It is a British-Austrian detective-psychologial series set in Austria in the early 1900s. It is well written and acted.

Fed Chair Powell will be testifying to the Congress again, starting tomorrow.

Get right, sit tight.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Stock Bubble III: The Great Unraveling - Stock Option Expiration Friday

“Realize that narcissists have an addiction disorder. They are strongly addicted to feeling significant. Like any addict they will do whatever it takes to get this feeling often. That is why they are manipulative and fakers. They promise change, but can't deliver if it interferes with their addiction.”

Shannon L. Alder


"As a dog returns to its vomit, so a fool returns to his folly."

Proverbs 26:11


"This is the contempt in which they hold the majority of American people and the political process: the common people are easily led fools, and everyone else who is smart enough to know better has their price.

And they would beggar every middle class voter in the US before they will voluntarily give up one dime of their ill gotten gains."

Simon Johnson, The Quiet Coup, May 2009


"Remember that there will be trying times in the last days.  For people will love only themselves and their money.  They will be boastful and proud, scoffing at God, dishonoring their parents, and ungrateful.  To them nothing is sacred.  They will be unloving and unforgiving; they will slander others and have no self-control. They will be cruel and despise what is good. They will betray their friends, be reckless and proud, and love pleasures of the world more than God. They may talk like they are religious, but they will reject the power that could make them godly.  Shun them."

2 Timothy 3:1-5

Stocks had another ranging day that ended up largely unchanged.

Trumpolini had his long-awaited signing ceremony with a Chinese delegation for the Trade-Lite Deal.  His speech was embarrassingly in character.

Gold and silver finished higher, and the Dollar closed a bit lower.

The stock market is now at bubble levels not seen since the Tech Bubble.

A reckoning with reality is on deck, most likely to arrive later this year. How much later is a very good question.

Protect yourselves, your hearts and minds as well as your money.  For the love of most has already gone cold.

Are we truly in the last days as some think?

As Newman observed, most centuries have thought that their times are the worst.  Pride inflates our view of ourselves in many ways.

No one can truly know when the end is coming, as you may recall.

But it seems as though an end of something, thought to be unassailable, is fast approaching.

And the consequences of this failure of pride, and the reaction its fanatical true believers, may be notable, for many years to come.

Try to not become swept up in the madness, remembering who you are and why you are here.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Bubble Has Awakened - Come and Get It

It looks like the pigmen in Congress and their corporate overlords are going to get their 'tax reform' for Christmas.

Winning...

The various stock and serveral bond markets are in a financial asset bubble, and certain stocks are surging higher in some fairly impressive daily moves based on utter nonsense.

Bitcoin and the various related crypto-currency plays are now a bona fide mania.

I think this tops the valuations of the worst of the gerbil tossing tech stocks in the internet bubble at the turn of the century.

Who wold have thought they could do it again two more times, albeit with the generous assistance of the Fed and the acquiescence of the regulators.

Ski these black diamond slopes at your own risk.

If you are an expert, you don't need any advice from me.

I am just the old guy in the kitchen, baking cookies.  lol.

It is interesting to wonder what will break the bubbles, and if they will start falling in unison, or if one breaks and others get some legs before they too roll over.

We'll never learn.  We should not have bailed them out.  Perhaps we ought to have driven a stake in their collective heart of darkness.

Have a pleasant evening.

Shanghai Composite Index Compared To Nasdaq 'Dot Com' Bubble

This could prove to be an interesting comparison.

Let's see if it stays on track.

There are quite a few protracted distortions in the global markets. 

And quite a few of them have nothing to do with Asia.

Here is a picture of the 2008 Shanghai stock bubble collapse.

The Decision Path For US Equities

These charts show two potential rising wedges on the US stock futures.

They are in a period of uncertainty after the long rally from the bottom of the financial crisis.