US Dollar Very Long Term Chart

"A sentiment of trust in the legal money of the State is so deeply implanted in the citizens of all countries that they cannot but believe that some day this money must recover a part at least of its former value. To their minds it appears that value is inherent in money as such, and they do not apprehend that the real wealth, which this money might have stood for, has been dissipated once and for all.

This sentiment is supported by the various legal regulations with which the Governments endeavor to control internal prices, and so to preserve some purchasing power for their legal tender. Thus the force of law preserves a measure of immediate purchasing power over some commodities and the force of sentiment and custom maintains, especially amongst peasants, a willingness to hoard paper which is really worthless...

If, however, a government refrains from regulations and allows matters to take their course, essential commodities soon attain a level of price out of the reach of all but the rich, the worthlessness of the money becomes apparent, and the fraud upon the public can be concealed no longer."

John Maynard Keynes, Economic Consequences of the Peace, NY, 1920, p. 239-40

SP Futures, NDX Futures, US Dollar, No Sell Signals Yet

The big drop in the SP 500 last Friday triggered by the Goldman fraud charges was not confirmed at all by the NDX.

The SP 500, rightly or wrongly, is where much of the market manipulation of stocks is said to occur. It is a lead index for us, but we watch the NDX along side it, and vice versa. A genuine change in trend must be confirmed before we would take positions in size against the prior trend.



Bullish sentiment is starting to roll over. It has not yet challenged a level that would signal a bearish reversal. It is enetered a period of consolidation and sideways chop. If it penetrates the second moving average band it would be a strong trend change signal.



The US Dollar as measured by the DX Index is in a consoldiation within its uptrend. It has not yet broken serious support to signal a change in trend.

Net Asset Values and Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds