China Expected to Shift Reserves into Commodities and Gold

"Beijing's reserves could easily go up to 3,000 to 4,000 tonnes..."


The Standard - Hong Kong
Gold rush
By Benjamin Scent
Friday, November 14, 2008

The mainland is seriously considering a plan to diversify more of its massive foreign-exchange reserves into gold, a person familiar with the situation told The Standard.

Beijing is considering changing its asset allocations during the financial tsunami in order to build up gold reserves "in a big way," the source said.

China's fears about the long-term viability of parking most of its reserves in US government bonds were triggered by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's US$700 billion (HK$5.46 trillion) bailout plan, which may make the US budget deficit balloon to well over US$1 trillion this fiscal year.

The US government will fund the bailout by printing new money or issuing huge amounts of new debt, either of which will put severe pressure on the value of the greenback and on government bond yields. (Is it odd that almost everyone in the world EXCEPT Americans can see this coming? - Jesse)

The United States holds 8,133.5 tonnes of gold reserves valued at US$188.23 billion. China holds gold reserves of just 600 tonnes, worth only US$13.89 billion.

Beijing's reserves could easily go up to 3,000 to 4,000 tonnes, Tanrich Futures senior vice president Colleen Chow Yin-shan said.

Until now, the United States has had little choice but to issue massive amounts of debt to fund its deficits, and China has had little choice but to purchase it, as there are not many markets deep enough to absorb the mainland's US$30 billion to US$40 billion in monthly capital inflows.

Government officials involved in the management of China's reserves are beginning to see gold as an attractive place to park some of these funds. They see it as a real, tangible asset that will not lose its value over time - in stark contrast to the greenback, which is becoming more disconnected from economic realities as more bills are printed.

"It's the right time to increase the gold reserves, as the price is about US$710 to US$720 per ounce," said Wan Guoli, vice secretary general of the China Gold Association.

The International Monetary Fund has made reducing global payment imbalances one of its priorities in the aftermath of the financial tsunami.

"I think China probably will expand its strategic reserves into commodities during this downturn," said a Hong Kong-based strategist.

"China will continue to buy treasuries ... otherwise the system would get distorted," he said.

"But I think China will diversify its reserves."

"The Dollar Will Be Devalued By a Large Margin" - The Economic Times of India

"We must...have a genuine international currency as the international reserve currency... As a one-time measure, the dollar will be devalued by a large margin..."

Asia seems to be growing increasingly impatient with Ben Bernanke and His Merry Banksters.

The Economic Times
Be Bold Enough to Fight the System from Within
By Ramgopal Agarwala
14 Nov, 2008, 0126 hrs IST

The ongoing global financial tsunami that originated in the US poses a serious threat to the stability of world economy. Already the financial crisis has spread from the US to Europe, Japan and major emerging economies.

The loss of wealth due to decline in share prices alone is in scores of trillions of dollars. Similar trillions are being lost in wealth in real estate. The crisis has spread from the Wall Street to the Main Street with a serious recession in the US which is sure to have a contagion effect across the globe.

Even worse is the scenario of the future of the US dollar. The US is pumping more and more dollars into the world economy, seriously aggravating the burden of its external debt, which is already over $20 trillion. If the confidence in the US dollar is shaken and the dollar goes into a free fall, we may well have what has been called ‘mother of all monetary crises.’

Faced with appreciation of their currencies in relation to dollar and fall in exports, major economies may well embark on competitive devaluations and protectionism, leading to a downward cobweb of production and employment in the world. The Great Depression of the 1930s may well repeat. We must not let that happen. We must make dispassionate analysis of the causes of the crisis and devise corrective measures however bitter they may seem.

While analysing the current US financial crisis, it has become conventional wisdom to blame the ‘greed’ of financial players on the Wall Street. But what else do we expect from the financial players? Profit maximisation is their job, their religion, if you like. It is the job of the regulators to make them work within the rules, which prevent greed turning into macro-economic imprudence. The real failure of the US system lies in its lax regulations that originated from a failed doctrine of self-regulating markets.

Along with the lax regulations, the spending spree in the US was fully supported, nay, encouraged by the authorities in order to prevent recession in the economy, in the wake of dotcom crisis and 9/11. Federal funds rate was brought down from 6.24% in 2000 to 1.35% in 2004 and remained below the 2000 level in 2007. Federal budget balance was changed from a surplus of $236 billion in 2000 to a deficit of $413 billion in 2004 and these may exceed $1 trillion in 2008/9.

In a normal economy, such domestic excesses will be prevented by the need to balance the external account. Unfortunately, the world has been on a US dollar reserve system, and there was no international regulatory mechanism to enforce discipline on the US spending. The world was flooded in the red ink flowing from international deficit financing by the US. Between 2000 and the third quarter of 2007, the US ran a current account deficit of $4.6 trillion!

But now the world must act. There could be a three-pronged strategy.

First, the countries holding US dollars must come forward to recapitalise the financial system of the US (in the US and abroad) by buying up equities of the US companies at the current low—and attractive—prices. In other words, rescue of the US financial system will have to come from the use of dollars in the system that created the problem in the first place rather than pumping more dollars into the system. What the sage of Omaha, Warren Buffet, is doing in billions needs to be done in trillions. Like Buffet, the lenders have to drive a hard bargain and these investments could be prudent over the long term as Warren Buffet’s probably are.

Second, we must go back to the wisdom of Keynes and have a genuine international currency as the international reserve currency. An internationally accepted bancor (as Keynes called it) should be created and exchanged for unwanted dollars. This programme will have a provision for systematic redemption of US dollars over time along with structural adjustment in the US economy. (Who will manage the rate of increase in the world currency, the 'bancor?' - Jesse)

As a one-time measure, the dollar will be devalued by a large margin to help US reduce its net imports and relative stability in real exchange rates will be maintained among major currencies through a system of managed floats. Speculative movements of short-term flows will be discouraged through regulations and taxes. In general, we may have to revive some features of exchange rate management in Bretton Woods agreement.

Third, a coordinated effort will be made to create alternative sources of demand in the world economy as the US net imports decline inevitably. Net additions of bancors needed (which could be more than a hundred billion dollar equivalent) could be used to fund global public goods.

The upcoming G20 summit in Washington DC could be a venue for considering these matters. Unfortunately, as indicated by the White House press release, the US seems to be putting the summit in the framework only of “reform of the regulatory and institutional regimes for the world’s financial sectors” and “strengthen(ing) the underpinnings of capitalism” by discussing how the summit leaders can “enhance their commitment to open competitive economies, as well as trade and investment liberalisation”!

Given the US veto power in Bretton Woods institutions, it can prevent the much-needed restructuring of global financial infrastructure. In that case, Asia should proceed with its own ‘Bretton Woods’ conference to set up a regional financial architecture that will pool its excess foreign exchange reserves in a regional sovereign wealth fund, create its own Asian currency unit as a parallel currency and use the seigniorage provided by the regional currency to fund the urgently needed physical and social infrastructure as well as measures to fight climate change.

This is an ambitious programme, but with a global economic calamity looming large, nothing less will do.

The author is with RIS, Delhi

Central Banks Shun the US Long Bond Auction - "Too Many Unknowns"

"Indirect bidders, a class of investors that includes foreign central banks, bought 18 percent of the securities offered, down from 43 percent at the last sale"

U.S. Treasuries Fall After Investors Shun 30-Year Bond Auction
By Cordell Eddings and Sandra Hernandez

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries fell, led by 30-year bonds, after investors shunned the government's $10 billion sale of the securities amid concern that U.S. debt sales will grow...

``The 30-year is not a central bank product, and there's no real interest from pension funds'' at a yield below 4.5 percent, said Andrew Brenner, co-head of structured products in New York at MF Global Ltd., the world's largest broker of exchange-traded futures and options contracts. ``There's just no interest in it...''

``In the current market environment there are still too many unknowns,'' said William Larkin, a portfolio manager at Cabot Money Management in Salem, Massachusetts, which manages about $500 million in assets. ``People are looking for the safety of the shorter-term securities....''

Indirect bidders, a class of investors that includes foreign central banks, bought 18 percent of the securities offered, down from 43 percent at the last sale....

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show an 80 percent chance the Fed will lower its 1 percent target rate for overnight bank lending by a half-percentage point at its Dec. 16 meeting. The odds were 58 percent a week ago.

The difference between what banks and the Treasury pay to borrow money for three months, the so-called TED spread, was 1.96 percentage points, compared with 4.57 percentage points a month ago.

The federal budget deficit in October, the first month of fiscal 2009, climbed to a record $237.2 billion, spurred by U.S. purchases of stakes in some of the country's largest banks. It exceeded the budget shortfall for President George W. Bush's first full year in office...

Congressman Asks Fed to Stop Ignoring Requests for Transparency

Bloomberg
Boehner Demands Fed Identify Recipients of Loans
By Laura Litvan

Nov. 12 - House Republican leader John Boehner called for the Federal Reserve to disclose the recipients of almost $2 trillion of emergency loans from American taxpayers and the troubled assets the central bank is accepting as collateral.

Boehner, in a prepared statement, also asked the Federal Reserve to comply with a Freedom of Information Act request seeking details about the loans.

The Fed ``should comply with this Freedom of Information Act request, and in the interest of full and fair disclosure, they must begin providing lawmakers and taxpayers all information about how they are using federal tax dollars,'' Boehner said.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in September they would comply with congressional demands for transparency in a $700 billion bailout of the banking system. Two months later, as the Fed lends far more than that in separate rescue programs that didn't require approval by Congress, there is little disclosure about how the programs are being implemented.

Bloomberg News requested details of the Fed lending under the U.S. Freedom of Information Act and filed a federal lawsuit Nov. 7 seeking to force disclosure.

A spokesman for the Federal Reserve didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.

`Oversight, Transparency'

Boehner said he is increasingly concerned that the government's actions to add stability to financial markets is moving into areas that were not the stated intention when Congress approved $700 billion for a Treasury-administered program to bail out the financial sector that is being weighed down by the housing crisis.

``During the bipartisan negotiations between Congress and the administration, members of both parties made clear that Congress must have meaningful oversight over the use of taxpayer dollars,'' Boehner said. ``Transparency is even more important now, given that the program appears to have been implemented in some ways that were given little to no discussion as Congress was being urged to pass the rescue plan.''

Senator John Cornyn of Texas, a member of the Republican leadership, said the lack of disclosure ``should trouble taxpayers and policymakers alike.''

``There cannot be accountability in government and in our financial institutions without transparency,'' he said. ``Many of the financial problems we are facing today are the direct result of too much secrecy and too little accountability.''

Representative Scott Garrett, a New Jersey Republican who serves on both the Financial Services and Banking committees, said ``it's impossible to get to the bottom of where we are because we don't have transparency.''