The Stock Index - Gold Ratios are important in gauging significant stock market declines.
Stocks may go nominally lower or gold can increase to make the ratios go lower in their reversion to a more sustainable pre-bubble level. Gold is the anti-bubble which is why it is so detested by the bubblemaniacs.
A key question of course is when did the bubble begin? Many would say almost certainly with the advent of the Greenspan Fed Chairmanship in 1987. There is a case to be made for Reaganomics and supply side experimentation.
Estimates of nominal levels are probably not valid based on pre-1971 examples because of the constraints on monetary policy imposed by the gold standard.
As you know we dislike the facile comparisons with Japan because their recent economic experience was driven by some outrageous policy errors that could only occur in a kereitsu dominated economy with a heavily bureaucratic political structure. Japan has been essentially a one-party electoral system since their adoption of democracy, and remains widely misunderstood in the West, and perhaps even by themselves. Japan is in the process of becoming, which is why we prefer to think of its 'lost decades' as its cocoon years. It will be interesting to see what emerges.
