Red Pill or Blue Pill?

You take the blue pill, the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe.

You take the red pill, you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes."

Morpheus in The Matrix

Blue Pill

Dick Bove was on Bloomberg Television this morning justifying a bullish outlook for the big banks, and the Bank of America in particular.

As you know, the story is that Bank of America has to raise many billions of dollars in additional capital according to the stress tests.

Dick Bove reasons that Bank of America will raise this additional capital, handwaving the costs and any contingencies a bit.

This additional capital will be leveraged, so Dick believes, in profitable transactions in trading, lending, and the extension of credit.

These transactions will generate a spectacular boom in bank profits. Mo' capital, mo' profits. Just do the math and including plenty of leverage.

And as we all know, more credit means economic growth and national prosperity.

Red Pill

The problem that the financial system has is an outsized financial sector with too much capacity for credit and financial assets. This excess capacity led to speculation and extension of credit in deals where the risk was not adequately balanced.

Hot money chases unreasonable risks. Too much capacity lowers the bars for deals which cannot possibly be profitable in any realistic model. Bubbles tend to distort the models for growth assumptions.

The only way to achieve a sustained recovery is to reform the financial system, break up the big banks, and return to a more balanced economy.

The elite and their acolytes seem to believe that by sustaining the illusion of the Financial Matrix that we create a confidence that will support a national economic system that is based on a credit bubble and a mass illusion of wealth based on paper.

The money center banks are the instruments of national policy, and the power to control not only the domestic economy but the nations of the world.

All we have to do is believe, and act as though it were true. After all, its so confusing, who can understand it? Better to just believe.

Can we delude ourselves to prosperity? Can a powerful nation and otherwise intelligent people be that venal, faithless and craven?

Yes we can. We have been doing it for years. And it can only continue if we gain more control over the real world and the people in it, and bend them to our increasingly irrational will.

The triumph of the will.

Nasdaq 100 Futures Hourly Chart at 2:30 PM

The artificial reflation aka short squeeze continues. It is centered on the financial stocks and in particular the SP futures. This is a classic Bob Rubin market fix technique from the 1990's. Don't fix the problems paint over them.

At times like these the stodgier Nasdaq100 performs the role of confirming moves up or down led by the SP 500. The broader indices are even more important.

This market is being slapped around in an effort to skin the overlevered small specs, so keep your positions small or even better, cash in your pocket. The banks are having a last gasp at manipulating nearly everything

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Insiders Continue to Sell Aggressively Into This Rally

According to reports corporate insiders continue to sell agrressively into this rally, with sells outweighing buys at levels not seen since the market top in 2007.

SP Futures Hourly Chart Update at 2:30 PM

This may be a 'reflationary rally' such as we had seen off the market bottom in 2003 which precipitated the housing bubble. The rally in gold and silver with the falling dollar helps to reinforce that view. The Treasury and Fed are monetizing debt at a brisk pace. This is bullish for stocks from a nominal standpoint at least.

We are skeptical of an economic recovery, and prefer to think of this stock market action not as signalling a real bottom but as a sucker's rally in which insiders unload positions on the naive and unsuspecting who are taken in by false optimism. It is difficult to tell however, given the opaque nature of the US financial system.

The chart technicals say that if it is not a genuine renewal of the bull, then the rally will likely fail around 915-920. If it is, then it obviously may keep drifting higher along the diagonal trendlines until something dislodges its momentum.

The market will let us know which one it is reasonably soon. Try not to outguess it if you value your portfolio. This is still a "trader's market."

Our key short term indicators have not yet delivered a SELL signal.