28 April 2010

Currency Wars: Markets Shudder on Downgrade of Spain


There was unusually heavy put buying yesterday in NY markets on the Spanish stock index ETF.

Lzst month a group of US hedge funds were investigated for collusion in planning short selling assaults on the euro. Having exhausted the developing world, which has largely tossed them out, have the economic hitmen finally turned on the developing world as we forecast in 2005 that they would?

This is not to say that Greece, Portugal, or Spain are without problems or fault. There is a general crisis in many of the developed country fiat currencies, including the United States. The rising price of gold and silver, despite the heavy handed manipulation by a few of the banking centers, is a sure sign of a flight from paper controlled by central banks.

The US financial interests have been shown to exercise a disconcerting amount of control over the three US-based Ratings Agencies. I wonder how long it will be before any of the US states will have their credit ratings downgraded, and how those attacks might be structured. I am sure the government would then act to curtail their naked shorting and market manipulation activity.

As the NY based stock tout crowed on Bloomberg this morning, "The US can inflate its way out of this crisis much more easily than can any other country." Well, it is an advantage to own the printing press, and to control key elements of the global financial system.

And it makes one wonder how long the economic predators will be given free rein by the co-opted regulatory agencies and government in the US, which cannot even pass a motion to debate financial reform to the floor of its Senate. I would suggest that the debate, even when it moves forward, will not produce anything sufficient to promote a sustainable recovery. That is why this debate must move now to the floors of Parliaments and legislative bodies in the rest of the world. And there has to be much more openness compelled from their central banks with regard to private dealings with the US Federal Reserve. It is now a matter of national priority.

Wall Street Journal
Euro Drops To New One-Year Low On Spain Downgrade

By Bradley Davis
April 28, 2010

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The euro dropped to a new one-year low Wednesday as a ratings agency downgrade of Spain sent a rush of fear through markets that a sovereign debt crisis was spreading across the euro-zone periphery.

The euro dropped to $1.3129, its lowest level since April 2009, on Standard & Poor's downgrade of Spain's long-term debt, which was accompanied by a negative outlook. The downgrade follows S&P's slicing of the ratings of Greece and Portugal Tuesday, which sent the euro plummeting.

"The deep-seated nature [of the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis] is only now being realized by the markets," said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, N.J, "and we're looking at a potential funding crisis" of government and corporate debt in the euro-zone periphery "in the not too distant future."

Other ratings agencies are likely to follow with additional downgrades, analysts said, which will send the euro even lower...

27 April 2010

US Equity Markets Feel an Unfamiliar Twinge of Fear


There was a bit of a spike in the Volatility Index to go with an increase in volume today as the markets recoiled from their familiar complacency, urged in part by the deterioration of the debt ratings of Greece and Portugal. This sent markets reeling and gold flying.



The rally from the bottom has had a 61.8% retracement, which makes traders nervy. This is the point where the stock index must show its hand, and either keep moving higher and strike its bullish brand, or flounder in what may have been a protracted bounce from a deeply oversold bottom. It does not necessarily collapse from here, as a prolonged sideways consolidation is always an option. The Banks' trading algorithms love a sideways chop that skin both bulls and bears.

Watch the VIX and the volume.



Technical Indicators have not yet flashed a firm sell signal.



It will take at least another big down day with heavy volume to start the indicators rolling over.



When will the markets break for us, up or down,

S’io credesse che mia risposta fosse
A persona che mai tornasse al mondo,
Questa fiamma staria senza piu scosse.
Ma perciocche giammai di questo fondo
Non torno vivo alcun, s’i’odo il vero,
Senza tema d’infamia ti rispondo.


Or until human voices wake us, and we drown?

Ο ανήφορος φέρνει κατήφορο

Let us go then, you and I...

Control Frauds HyperInflate and Extend Bubbles Maximizing Damage - A Control Fraud at Work in the Silver Market Short Positions?


Here is a working paper by William K. Black about 'control frauds' and how they relate to the most recent credit crisis in the United States, a breakdown of stewardship that has placed the rest of the world's financial sector at risk as well.

Control frauds are by their very nature conspiratorial in that they involve the suborning of regulators, ratings agencies, exchanges, the media, and legislators to ignore and facilitate misrepresentation that enable white collar crime. They are difficult to prosecute because by their nature they involve twisting the legal into the extra-legal on a broad basis to achieve a particular financial effect, while limiting many specific aspects to the letter of the law, or at least the gray areas.

By and large they operate in the shadows, hiding behind secrecy and a general mindset towards short term greed and lapses in ethics. Investigations following the Crash of 1929 and the S&L crisis demonstrated that the existence of such pervasive lapses in stewardship do exist.

Personally I think the significant short positions in the silver market may be a form of control fraud. This is why so much effort and care is being taken by some individuals and groups to discover the extent and nature and holders of the short positions that are dominant. And this is why the participants are so vociferous and secretive regarding their activities.

To those who say that the commodity markets are too large, and too well regulated for this sort of thing to occur, this is the sort of fraud that Enron used to manipulate the energy markets, to the extent that they were able to cause significant social and commercial disruption to the state of California.

More on this another time. For now understanding how these frauds work is enough to study in instruments such as home mortgages. And most people do not need to understand this. But here is a good point for the average person to keep in mind.

Light is a good disinfectant. Fraud cannot bear exposure. While some confidentiality must be maintained in trading, obsessive secrecy regarding significantly large positions and collateral matters is often an indication that something is not right, that it is hidden from the market participants view for a particular reason that is deleterious to market pricing and efficiency.

The only way to settle this is by more transparency and disclosure. Rhetoric and supposition is often mere noise meant to distract from and promote the fraud if in fact it does exists. And if it does not, disclosure will reveal this as well.

Epidemics of 'Control Fraud' Lead to Recurrent, Intensifying Bubbles and Crises
William K. Black
University of Missouri at Kansas City - School of Law
April 15, 2010

Abstract:

“Control frauds” are seemingly legitimate entities controlled by persons that use them as a fraud “weapon.” A single control fraud can cause greater losses than all other forms of property crime combined.

This article addresses the role of control fraud in financial crises. Financial control frauds’ primary weapon is accounting. Fraudulent lenders produce exceptional short-term “profits” through a four-part strategy: extreme growth (Ponzi), lending to uncreditworthy borrowers, extreme leverage, and minimal loss reserves.

These exceptional “profits” defeat regulatory restrictions and turn private market discipline perverse. The profits also allow the CEO to convert firm assets for personal benefit through seemingly normal compensation mechanisms. The short-term profits cause stock options to appreciate. Fraudulent CEOs following this strategy are guaranteed extraordinary income while minimizing risks of detection and prosecution.

The optimization strategy causes catastrophic losses. The “profits” allow the fraud to grow rapidly by making bad loans for years. The “profits” allow the managers to loot the firm through exceptional compensation, which increases losses.

The accounting control fraud optimization strategy hyper-inflates and extends the life of financial bubbles. The finance sector is most criminogenic because of the absence of effective regulation and the ability to invest in assets that lack readily verifiable values. Unless regulators deal effectively with the initial frauds their record profits will produce imitators. Control frauds can be a combination of “opportunistic” and “reactive”. If entry is easy, opportunistic control fraud is optimized. If the finance sector is suffering from distress, reactive control fraud is optimized. Both conditions can exist at the same time, as in the savings and loan (S&L) debacle.

When many firms follow the same optimization strategy a financial bubble hyper-inflates. This further optimizes accounting control fraud because the frauds can hide losses by refinancing. Mega bubbles produce financial crises.

Download the complete working paper here.

Market Manipulation, Systemic Risk and Fraud, Pure and Simple, And It Continues Today


This article by the Financial Times should remove any doubt in anyone's mind that Goldman Sachs was willfully selling fraudulent financial instruments. It appears that they were working in conjunction with Ratings Agencies, Mortgage Origination Firms, and Hedge Funds to cheat investors.

"Cheat" means to circumvent or distort the normal price discovery process through misrepresentation, price manipulation, and omissions and distortion of key data.

Carl Levin summarized the situation in his opening statement this morning in tying together various Congressional hearings and investigations into aspects of the recent financial crisis and the underlying frauds. It sounds remarkably like the frauds that Enron had so recently inflicted on the American public.

In particular, Congressman Levin gave a good description of the key role that derivatives played in this control fraud.

"Of special concern was Goldman’s marketing of what are known as “synthetic” financial instruments. Ordinarily, the financial risk in a market, and hence the risk to the economy at large, is limited because the assets traded are finite. There are only so many houses, mortgages, shares of stock, bushels of corn or barrels of oil in which to invest.

But a synthetic instrument has no real assets. It is simply a bet on the performance of the assets it references. That means the number of synthetic instruments is limitless, and so is the risk they present to the economy. Synthetic structures referencing high-risk mortgages garnered hefty fees for Goldman Sachs and other investment banks. They assumed an ever-larger share of the financial markets, and contributed greatly to the severity of the crisis by magnifying the amount of risk in the system.

Increasingly, synthetics became bets made by people who had no interest in the referenced assets. Synthetics became the chips in a giant casino, one that created no economic growth even when it thrived, and then helped throttle the economy when the casino collapsed."

This is also a good description of the basis of the emerging scandal in the silver market, and other commodity markets such as those that Enron manipulated, in which synthetic bets are being used to manipulate price, and improbable sales are being misrepresented under the cover of secrecy and opaque markets as actual sales, when in fact they are merely derivative bets in which the seller may be manipulating the price and taking the other side of the sale above and beyond their actual delivery of the goods. When is Gary Gensler, the Goldman Sachs alumnus chairing the CFTC these days, finally going to institute some significant reforms in the US commodity futures exchanges?

The further question one might ask is, "When is the Administration going to put the FBI and the Justice Department to work in the more serious criminal investigation of the perpetrators of this fraud, with an eye to prosecutions under the RICO statutes?"

A lack of effective regulatory response and reform to the Enron and Worldcom scandals, facilitated by the inappropriate if not pandering monetary and regulatory policies of the privately owned Federal Reserve Bank, allowed the even larger housing bubble to form, bringing the US financial system, and indeed the global economy, to the brink of calamity.

This failure on the part of the US to rein in its financial sector jeopardizes all of us, because of the position of their banks in deals around the world, but in particular because of the place of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.

President Obama does not need the Republicans to begin serious investigation by his branch of government. Indeed, this is why he was elected, and the promises that he had made to voters.

The existing financial reform legislation being debated in the Congress is unlikely to be strong enough to prevent the next Enron-like fraud, and indeed, is unlikely to even shut down the existing frauds in the commodity markets, recently disclosed by whistle-blowers.

We suspect the Administration and the Congress are putting forward a good show for the public, even while continuing to take millions of dollars in contributions from the industry, and the very firms that are under investigation like Goldman Sachs. Firms that have been and are continuing to receive government subsidies including but not restricted to TARP funds and FDIC subsidies, while they continue to lobby against financial reform and presumably their own investigations.

This is a reform government? Don't make us laugh.

Reform is best when it is driven by a desire to see oaths and promises upheld, and justice done. It is at its worst when it is just a political deal to 'get something done' to silence the voices of critics.

As an aside, in my estimation the reporting on Bloomberg financial television is hitting new lows each day. They are so willfully unbalanced and misleading in their reporting that it beggars the mind. It is a disgraceful sham to call it journalism.

Financial Times
Goldman ‘criticised $1bn loan product’
By Henny Sender, Francesco Guerrera, Stephanie Kirchgaessner
April 27 2010 00:52

Goldman Sachs officials privately disparaged a complex $1bn mortgage security that the Wall Street bank sold to investors, according to e-mails released by Senate investigators on the eve of hearings on Tuesday on the bank’s role in the financial crisis.

The disclosure of the e-mails by the Senate subcommittee on investigations, which is conducting the hearing, opens up a new front in Goldman’s battle to defend itself against accusations that it put its interests ahead of its clients.

The Securities and Exchange Commission earlier this month alleged that Goldman fraudulently failed to disclose that a hedge fund influenced the composition of a complex mortgage-related security, called Abacus, underwritten by the bank.

The Goldman communications released on Monday involve Timberwolf, another so-called collateralised debt obligation, or CDO, which was structured by the bank to give investors a chance to bet on subprime mortgages.

Tom Montag, then a senior Goldman executive and now head of corporate and investment banking at Bank of America, was quoted as describing the deal in an e-mail as follows: “Boy that timeberwof (sic) was one shi**y (sic) deal,” according to the Senate subcommittee.

The subcommittee said that Matthew Bieber, the Goldman trader responsible for managing the deal, later described the day that the Timberwolf security was issued as “a day that will live in infamy”, recalling the language President Franklin Roosevelt used for the Japanese attack against Pearl Harbor.

Lawyers for Basis Yield Alpha Fund, a hedge fund that was forced to liquidate after its $100m investment in Timberwolf plummeted in value, have been holding talks with Goldman about the deal, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Goldman officials declined to comment on the matter. Mr Montag also declined to comment.

Within five months of issuance, Timberwolf lost 80 per cent of its value. The security was liquidated in 2008. Among the biggest buyers of Timberwolf was a hedge fund under Bear Stearns Asset Management, which held $300m of the $1bn deal, before the Bear fund collapsed, according to the Senate material.