08 June 2011

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts



The sentiment has become decidedly bearish, and we now have six down days in a row on Wall Street, something not seen since February 2009.

One might look for a technical bounce somewhere around here, but it may take something from the Fed or Washington to turn the market around.



European Credit Agency Downgrades US Credit Rating from AAA to AA


Here is my rough translation of the original Feri stuft die Bonität der USA herab.

"Man muss manchmal in den sauren Apfel beißen."

The Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustained recovery.


Feri Downgrades the Creditworthiness of the United States
By Harald Weygand
Wednesday, 06.08.2011, 08:56

Homburg, 8 June 2011 - The Bad Homburg €uro Feri Rating & Research AG downgraded the first credit rating agency's credit rating for the United States from AAA to AA. Feri analysts justify the downgrade by the continuing deterioration of the creditworthiness of the country due to high public debt, inadequate fiscal measures, and weaker growth prospects.

"The U.S. government has fought the effects of the financial market crisis primarily by an increase in government debt. We do not see thank that there is sufficient attention being paid to other measures, "said Dr. Tobias Schmidt, CEO of Feri Rating & Research AG €. "Our rating system shows a deterioration in economic health, so the downgrading of the credit ratings of U.S. is warranted."

For the third consecutive year the deficit of the United States is in double digit percentages relative to gross domestic product (GDP). "Deficits of such magnitude are not a sustainable fiscal policy.  We would reconsider the rating when the U.S. government creates a long-term sustainable budget," said Schmidt.

Feri Rating is listed on the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) as an EU credit rating agency approved and created with more than 20 years experience in sovereign ratings. Every month, the Feri analysts evaluate sovereign credit ratings from the perspective of a foreign investor based on the ability and willingness of countries to repay their debts. The credit ratings have eleven possible gradations between "AAA" (best credit) and "Default".

About Feri Rating & Research AG
Feri Rating & Research AG is a leading European rating agency for analysis and evaluation of investment markets and products and one of the largest economic forecasting and research institutes. Currently, the company with about 50 employees and has approximately 1,000 customers in addition to its headquarters in Bad Homburg with offices in London, Paris and New York.

07 June 2011

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Comex Silver Deliverable Inventory Hit New Lows


The ability of the Comex to deliver on the silver contracts continues to deteriorate.

Still running a long gold-short stocks pair. Added some silver long today, and doubled up the stock short, so the beta is leaning to the bearish side. I will adjust it tomorrow depending on how things look after the European close of trade.




SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts



The bullish case on these charts is for stocks to find a footing around the obvious support levels and create a slanted "W" double bottom with a nice summer rally back to the top of the channel trend resistance.

The bearish scenario involves a break of this support and a continuing decline into the Fed's decision on QE3 at the end of June.

Bernanke's waffling did not help stocks today.

I am still running the long gold-short stocks trade, but adjusted my beta and took the short position up a notch to a bearish lean.