14 July 2011

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Liberté, égalité, fraternité - PHYS Follow On Offer



PHYS is down 1.6% after hours on news of a follow on offering. You can read it here.

TORONTO, ONTARIO, Jul 14, 2011 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- Sprott Physical Gold Trust (the "Trust"), a trust created to invest and hold substantially all of its assets in physical gold bullion and managed by Sprott Asset Management LP, announced today that it has launched a follow-on offering (the "Offering") of transferable, redeemable units of the Trust ("Units").

The Trust will use the net proceeds of this Offering to acquire physical gold bullion in accordance with the Trust's objective and subject to the Trust's investment and operating restrictions described in the prospectus related to this Offering. Under the trust agreement governing the Trust, the net proceeds of the Offering per unit must be not less than 100% of the most recently calculated net asset value per Unit of the Trust prior to, or upon determination of, pricing of the offering.

The Units are listed on the NYSE Arca and the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbols "PHYS" and "PHY.U", respectively. The Offering will be made simultaneously in the United States and Canada by Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets.

I took the day off so I have not followed the market closely this day, and have no active positions.

Tomorrow will be an interesting day with all the cross currents and the options expiry.



Lost your place in the gold and silver bull run?

For those that haven't, Shout and Feel It by Count Basie.




Remember the price for liberty that was paid by those who went before us.




SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Chart


The pivotal .50 retracement support at 1307 held again today on the close.

Tomorrow is options expiration.

Obama is calling for a meeting this weekend at Camp David to discuss the debt ceiling.

Watch it, this market may take off one way or the other over the next three weeks.



13 July 2011

Silver Dealer Inventory Continues to Spiral to New Lows at the Comex - Pax Goldmana



The deliverable dealer silver inventory at the Comex dropped to another new low of 27.37 million ounces.

If the Comex runs into troubles with a temporary inability to deliver on contracts and approaches a de facto default, most of the regulators and pundits will say they 'never saw it coming.'

Well, here it is.

Hard to miss an almost 70% drop in deliverable inventory like this in a little over two years.

UBS remarked today that they see a choke on the supply in gold, but not in other  metals. 

Yes, there is plenty of silver available, but at higher prices.  How high, only the market can tell.

At some point, even if it is for a brief period of time, silver bullion may not be available at any price, at least in dollars.

Just another day in the Pax Goldmana. "They create a desert, and call it recovery."




Currency Wars: Moody's Warns on US AAA Rating But Europe Is the Target



I continue to suspect strongly that the debt ceiling theatricals will come to nothing, the can will be kicked down the road past the 2012 elections, and the markets will rally, with Risk On again, when the crisis dissipates.

I am not so optimistic about Europe, with the hedge funds and their Ratings Agencies dogging them. The saber rattling by Moody's at the US is merely to provide cover for the next assault on Ireland and Italy.

The solution is obvious, but difficult to achieve. A single currency for a range of economies is simply not feasible without transfer payments and a single financial authority as exist among the States in the US. Some states give more and others receive more as the necessary resolution of regional currency inflexibility.

A two-tiered system would work, as would spinning off a few of the PIIGs into a system which would allow them to devalue currencies as required. It would hamper the strong economies' regional exports, but that is the price they would pay.

The stumbling block is the CDS market and the debts owed to the French and German banks, and to a lesser extent the English and the Americans. This is why the Wall Street banks can ruthlessly press a default scenario as just another Goldman opportunity.

And in the meanwhile, Asia bides its time. The next eighteen months should be interesting.

MarketWatch
Stock index futures fall after Moody's warning
By Carla Mozee
July 13, 2011, 6:13 p.m. EDT

U.S. stock index futures fell Wednesday evening after Moody's Investors Service warned that it may cut its triple-A rating on U.S. government debt. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures recently fell 79 points, to 12,346 from its settlement Wednesday afternoon.

S&P 500 Index futures /quotes/zigman/1277190 SP1U -0.38% fell 9 points to 1,303, and Nasdaq 100 Index futures /quotes/zigman/876546 ND1U -0.48% shed 15 points to 2,330.

The U.S. dollar index /quotes/zigman/1652083 DXY 0.00% , which measures the U.S. unit’s performance against a basket of six other major currencies, fell to 75.01 and reached as low as 74.93. The benchmark was above 75 before the news. The euro /quotes/zigman/4867933/sampled EURUSD +0.44% and the Japanese yen each strengthened.

Moody’s said the review was prompted by the possibility that the U.S. debt limit will not be raised in time to prevent a missed payment of interest or principal on outstanding bonds and notes.

“As such, there is a small but rising risk of a short-lived default,” Moody’s said, adding that it considers the probability of a default to be low but no longer minimal.

“An actual default, regardless of duration, would fundamentally alter Moody’s assessment of the timeliness of future payments, and a Aaa rating would likely no longer be appropriate,” it said. If lowered, the rating would most likely be somewhere in the Aa range, said Moody’s.

Jeffrey Goldstein, the U.S. Treasury’s under secretary for domestic finance, said in a statement that Moody’s assessment “is a timely reminder of the need for Congress to move quickly to avoid defaulting on the country’s obligations and agree upon a substantial deficit-reduction package.”

Earlier Wednesday, a stalemate between lawmakers appeared to be breaking after Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid lauded a proposal from his Republican counterpart to let President Barack Obama raise the debt ceiling on his own. Reid praises Republican debt-ceiling proposal.