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Here is something from my 'private stock.'
This is the picture of a quiet flight to quality.
If you must trade, buy strength and sell weakness, and not the other way around when driven by greed and fear.
But for almost everyone, it is better to see the trend and ride its crest, perhaps hedging a little at the extremes, while the fundamentals that created it are intact.
What are the fundamentals driving this phenomenon? Keep Jesse's Paradox in mind.
And if you have to rely on something wonkish, with the trappings of an economic theory, then an eye to negative interest rates on the ten year bond is not bad, provided that you can find a measure of price inflation that has not been fouled by official corruption.
If you had a calm trading day today then you probably were not trading.
Gold and silver were smacked down fairly hard in a two step operation around the NY open this morning in a blatantly obvious bear raid. Stocks also sold off quite sharply.
But then the markets started to recover, if one knows what to look for. I responded by taking down my short stock positions, and added substantially to my bullion position a little after 10 AM.
Something in the selloff did not seem right. Volumes became almost non-existent and prices drifted higher for the rest of the day.
Then this story hit the wires in the afternoon about 3 PM NY time.
The Guardian UK
France and Germany Agree to €2 Trillion Euro Rescue Fund
By David Gow in Brussels
France and Germany have reached agreement to boost the eurozone's rescue fund to €2tn (£1.75tn) as part of a "comprehensive plan" to resolve the sovereign debt crisis, which this weekend's summit should endorse, EU diplomats said."
Was this known in advance by some market participants? It certainly could be thought so. It proved to be a decent opportunity to add back to my metals positions and I was glad I took off the short stock hedges.
So what next? It is hard to say, because this is a very light volume, headline driven market, and the fundamentals are taking a back seat to the events of the day at least for now, with the events dominated by European debt concerns.
Gold is locked into a trading channel, and I have been buying weakness and selling strength at extremes while it remains therein. How and where it might break out or down I cannot say. But the trend looks up barring a liquidation event.
Speaking of bank chicanery, I see where Bank of America is shifting Merrill Lynch derivates to the books of a bank subsidiary that is fat with FDIC insured deposits.
Apparently the FDIC and Federal Reserve have differing views of this maneuver.
But it should help to clarify why Glass-Steagall needs to be reinstated. And why the Fed may be a poor choice as bank regulator, itself being a private institution owned by the banks.
This is the news report that rallied US stocks this afternoon.
And we might suspect that this is the root cause for the major bear raid on gold that occurred earlier today.
The Guardian UK
France and Germany Agree to €2 Trillion Euro Rescue Fund
By David Gow in Brussels
France and Germany have reached agreement to boost the eurozone's rescue fund to €2tn (£1.75tn) as part of a "comprehensive plan" to resolve the sovereign debt crisis, which this weekend's summit should endorse, EU diplomats said."
After the bell Yahoo and Intel both showed positive results with Intel increasing its stock buybacks.
Waiting for Apple.
Update: Apple missed! The shortfall was in iPhone shipment and iPads/iPods.
But they then RAISED their forecast for next quarter. This could be a sales effect, shifting
buying from this quarter to next based on buyers waiting for new models.
