31 August 2018

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Three Day Holiday Weekend - Non-Farm Payrolls Next Week


"A great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for illusion is deep."

Saul Bellow


“State propaganda, when supported by the educated classes and when no deviation is permitted from it, can have a big effect.”

Noam Chomsky


"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary.”

H.L. Mencken


“The term propaganda rings melodramatic and exaggerated, but a press that—whether from fear, careerism, or conviction—uncritically recites false government claims and reports them as fact, or treats elected officials with a reverence reserved for royalty, cannot be accurately described as engaged in any other function.”

Glenn Greenwald


“The point of modern propaganda isn't only to misinform or push an agenda.  It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.”

Garry Kasparov

Stocks were shoved around the plate by picky speculators who were not quite sure what to do at these levels when faced with a three day holiday weekend and continuing uncertainty with emerging markets and trade talks.

The 'NAFTA' talks between the US and Canada ended without a resolution today. They have agreed to continue speaking again on Wednesday.

Gold and silver came in strongly, but faded as the day went on and the Dollar appreciated modestly.

These jokers seem to be keen to keep the metals under wraps. If they lose control of the price, then a lot of dominoes will be falling.

But the setup here is very interesting.
"Commercials are currently net long (futures &options) in both gold & silver, 1st time ever for silver, at least going back to 95, which is as far back as my data goes."

Bill Fleckenstein
Smells like teen spirit.

Since today is the end of August, we will be seeing a Non-Farm Payrolls Report for this month next week.  I have included a calendar of upcoming economic events for next week as the third chart below.

As you may recall, the US markets will be closed on Monday for Labor Day.

In honor of Labor Day, Trumpolini issued an order to freeze the pay of about two million Federal workers.

And he is considering a unilateral action to provide another $100 Billion in tax breaks for the .1% by indexing capital gains to inflation.

A recent Gallup poll indicates that 78% of Democrats believe that Hillary lost to Trump because of Russian interference in the elections.

Who says that the power of propaganda has been blunted in the era of the internet and alternative news sources.

Need little, want less, love more. For those who abide in love abide in God, and God in them.

Have a pleasant weekend.




30 August 2018

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - I Shall Not Want - Short Positions On Risk Safe Havens At New Highs


From the love of my own comfort
From the fear of having nothing
From a life of worldly passions
Deliver me O God

From the need to be understood
And from a need to be accepted
From the fear of being lonely
Deliver me O God

From the fear of serving others
Oh, and from the fear of death or trial
And from the fear of humility
Deliver me O God

Yes, deliver me O God
And I shall not want, no, I shall not want
When I taste Your goodness I shall not want

Audrey Assad, I Shall Not Want


The Lord is my shepherd; I shall not want. He makes me to lie down in green pastures; He leads me beside the still waters.
He restores my soul; He leads me in the paths of righteousness for His name’s sake.
Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil;
for Thou art with me; Thy rod and Thy staff, they comfort me.
Thou prepare a table before me in the presence of mine enemies;
Thou anoint my head with oil;
my cup runneth over.
Surely goodness and mercy shall follow me all the days of my life;
and I will dwell in the house of the Lord for ever.

Psalm 23

No comments tonight as I have to hurry up and wait at the dentist's office.

There was intraday commentary on bubbles and busts here.

Tomorrow will mark the first anniversary of the passing of my Mary.  Eternal rest grant unto her, and all those of good and loving hearts, O Lord, and let perpetual light shine upon them.  May their souls and all the souls of the faithful departed through the mercy of God rest in peace.

See you tomorrow.

Have a pleasant evening.


















Nomi Prins: Central Banks' Policy Errors and the Bubbles and Busts That Follow - Currency Resets


"Central banks and institutions like the IMF and the World Bank are overstepping the boundaries of their mandates by using the flow of money to control global markets and dictate economic policy both at the domestic and global level. These public institutions have become so dependent on funding from private banking and the revolving door between the two worlds is so smooth that public and private banks are effectively working toward the same goals.

A crash could prove to be President Trump’s worst legacy. Not only is he— and the Fed he’s helping to create— not paying attention to the alarm bells (ignored by the last iteration of the Fed as well), but he’s ensured that none of his appointees will either.

After campaigning hard against the ills of global finance in the 2016 election campaign and promising a modern era Glass-Steagall Act to separate bank deposits from the more speculative activities on Wall Street, Trump's policy reversals and appointees leave our economy more exposed than ever. When politicians and regulators are asleep at the wheel, it’s the rest of us who will suffer sooner or later. Because of the collusion that’s gone on and continues to go on among the world’s main central banks, that problem is now an international one."

Nomi Prins

Although it is a little dated, this talk by Nomi Prins waa brought to mind by the current situation in the US financial markets.

I was also struck by Grant Williams' recent interview with William White about the descending spiral in which the central banks seem to be caught in continuing to prop up financial asset prices out of fear of perturbing the Frankenstein banking system that they created over the past twenty years.

And it is almost astonishing that the hedge fund and managed money crowd are now holding short positions against the risk safe havens of 10Yr Treasuries, VIX and Gold are at near term or record highs.

I am not going to be forecasting a crash, at least not yet.  And even when the time comes, all one can do is sound an alarm when the conditions seem to indicate that low probability event may be at a greater chance than normal,

But what I am saying now is that risk seems to be currently mispriced, at an extreme even compared to recent history, and  that the speculators appear to be reliant, once again, on a confidence in the Fed to bail the moneyed interests out when something awful happens.  At the expense of the unknowing public, it should be added, as has been their custom.

There is a glimmer of organic recovery in the recent signs of life in the velocity of M2, which has halted its breath-taking descent since the crisis. 

But it remains that so much money has been squandered on a fortunate few of the central bank's constituency, and in relatively unproductive ventures  This has accomplished little except increasing wealth inequality and distorting the real economy, leaving it in a weakened state for the next financial crisis.

So it does seem proper to put forward a leveraged risk warning.   Now may be an opportunity to take some shelter from the excesses of ideological folly and the unrestrained greed that feeds it.





29 August 2018

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Living the Dream - Same As It Ever Was


"The sense of responsibility in the financial community for the community as a whole is not small.  It is nearly nil.  Perhaps this is inherent.  In a community where the primary concern is making money, one of the necessary rules is to live and let live.  To speak out against madness may be to ruin those who have succumbed to it.  So the wise in Wall Street are nearly always silent.  The foolish thus have the field to themselves.  None rebukes them...

It is difficult not to marvel at the imagination which was implicit in this gargantuan insanity. If there must be madness something may be said for having it on a heroic scale."

John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash of 1929


"What is good?  All that enhances the feeling of power, the Will to Power, and the power itself in man.  What is bad?  All that proceeds from weakness.  What is happiness?  The feeling that power is increasing— that resistance has been overcome.  Not contentment, but more power;  not peace at any price, but war;  not virtue, but competence. The first principle of our humanism is that the weak and the failures shall perish.   And they ought to be helped to perish."

Friedrich Nietzsche, The Antichrist


"It is always the soul that dies first, even if it's departure goes unnoticed. And it always carries the body along with it... Man is nourished by the invisible, man is nourished by that which is beyond the personal. He dies from preferring the opposite."

Jacques Lusseyran, Poetry at Buchenwald


"Those who are at present so eager to be reconciled with the world at any price must take care not to be reconciled with it under this particular aspect: as the nest of The Unspeakable. This is what too few are willing to see... Be human in this most inhuman of ages; guard the image of man for it is the image of God."

Thomas Merton, Raids on The Unspeakable

Stocks soared to new highs today.

On light volumes.

Disproportionately led by big cap darlings such as Amazon and the rest of the new era big cap techs crowd.

Come on in.  The water's fine.  Everyone is making money but you.  Get some.

Gold and silver rose a little on Dollar weakness.

You are not one of the elite, the .1%, except in your own misplaced aspirations, and maybe delusions of grandeur. To the power of darkness you are prey, and your purpose is to be devoured.

I know, like so many others who have seen and who have said so to me, that our society, which is based on greed and the self, is becoming coarse. And the hearts of many have grown cold, and harsh. It will get worse before it gets better. But as Dostoevsky said, 'If they drive God from the earth, we shall shelter Him underground.'

Besides, who can resist the opportunity to read and write poetry, make music, love beauty, even in  times of plague of the human spirit.

Have a pleasant evening.