Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Old As Babylon, And Evil As Sin - Comex Option Expiration

 

"The whole town and all its inhabitants are quite drowned in carnival din, masks and confetti.  And on top of that the news of the Reichstag fire.  Dancing on a volcano."

Alban Berg, Letter from Berlin, September 1, 1933


“When Fascism came into power, most people were unprepared, both theoretically and practically.  They were unable to believe that man could exhibit such propensities for evil, such lust for power, such disregard for the rights of the weak, or such yearning for submission.  Only a few had been aware of the rumbling of the volcano preceding the outbreak.”

Erich Fromm, Escape from Freedom


"There are so many ways of escaping from that which one fears, and not the least of these is hatred.”

Philip Kerr, Berlin Noir


"When you legitimize yourself entirely by inventing enemies, the truth ceases to matter, normal restraints of civilization and decency cease to matter, the checks and balances of normal politics cease to matter.  

The dangers of fascist politics come from the particular way in which it dehumanizes segments of the population.  It limits the capacity for empathy among other citizens, leading to the justification of inhumane treatment, from repression of freedom, mass imprisonment, and expulsion to, in extreme cases, mass extermination."

Jason Stanley, How Fascism Works

"Fascism begins the moment a ruling class, fearing the people may use their political democracy to gain economic democracy, begins to destroy political democracy in order to retain its power of exploitation and special privilege."

Thomas Clement Douglas


"Behind the concrete, the visible events, behind all the objective, logical considerations, we find that which goes beyond the merely rational: the struggle against evil, against the servants of the antichrist. 

Everywhere and always demonic powers lurk in the dark, waiting for the moment when man is weak; when of his own volition he leaves his place in Creation, as founded for him by God in freedom; and when he yields to the forces of evil, he separates himself from the powers of a higher order; after voluntarily taking the first step, he is driven on and on to the next and to the next, at a furiously accelerating rate."

Die Weiße Rose, Fourth Leaflet, Munich, 1942


“Each day we are becoming a creature of splendid glory, or one of unthinkable horror.”

C. S. Lewis


Stocks were able to rally today, and managed to hold on to the gains and go out near the highs.

The Dollar declined back to the bottom of the 102 handle.

Gold and silver rallied well, but were sold back down during the afternoon, still managing to hold on to some of their gains.

There will be a fairly significant precious metals option expiration on the Comex this Wednesday the 25^th.

 Pricing shenanigans are customary.    It's what they do.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Wash n' Rinse Shenaniganza - Volatile Stock Option Expiration

 

"Predicting the failure of a complex system is not easy.  One can examine it as a whole, and determine that it will fail, and often calculate what must change in order to allow the system to function more reliably.  But it is often beyond our power to calculate exactly how it will fail, and consequently when it will fail. 

This does not invalidate the observation that the system will ultimately fail.  It merely underscores the unpredictability of timing a failure with the degrees of freedom inherent in a calculation with a large number of exogenous variables. 

There are four major types of tipping points:

o Demand:  a break in the level of consumption in the US caused by the unwillingness or ability of households to incur further debt to support consumption beyond real wage growth

o Supply:  a major disruption in the supply of an essential commodity like energy, food, or raw materials, or even the realization that a major commodity is in shorter supply than expected, such as silver or oil.

o Monetary:  an inability of foreign central banks to continue to monetize the US trade deficit and budget deficit through the recycling of their trade surplus into US debt securities.

o Systemic failure:  the failure of a major counter party that threatens the US financial system, particularly in the hugely leveraged derivatives market.

Jesse, Long Term Forecast: The Humpty Dumpty Economy, 2005 

 

You may have noticed a fairly wide range in the US stock markets today. 

Much of that was related to the trillion dollars or so in stock option expiration.

God may not play dice with the universe, but the Wall Street financiers are more than willing to play dice with the stability of the real economy and the lives of the American public.

So we had another miraculous snapback rally in the late hours of trading, taking the major indices off some fairly impressive new lows. 

I don't think the powers-that-be wanted people going into the weekend and worrying about their investments.

The enablers wanted to post the headline: Stocks Rally Back, Avert Bear Market.

Gold held up well, and silver managed to hang on by its fingernails.

The Dollar rose to take back the 103 handle.

VIX was largely unchanged after a wild swing.

I am struggling a little bit with a choice with the CrashTrak model.   

I still think we are testing that 'second low' as the rally we saw off that initial bottom was pretty much a one day wonder.

But if it was not, if it was in fact a 'failed rally' before a decline, well, we will see how that works out in the next week or so.

This will provide the wiseguys with yet another chance to hand off the consequences of yet another bubble to mom and pop.

The bottom line is that the risks are pronounced, even if a brief euphoria of optimism and greed return.

We need to break the second high to invalidate the model.

The higher ground still seems like a good place to be.

Have a pleasant weekend.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Loneliness of Sin

 

"As the Father has loved me, so I have loved you.  Remain in my love.  If you keep my commandments, you will abide in my love, even as I have kept my Father’s commandments and abide in his love. These things I have spoken to you so that my joy may remain in you, and so that you may be joyful.

This is my commandment: that you love one another, as I have loved you.  Greater love than this has no man, than to offer his life for his friends."

John 15:9-11


“Of all the countries I have been to, the poorest one I have been to is America.  America suffers most from the poverty of loneliness.  Every single man, woman, child is the child of God, created in the image of God.  Spread love everywhere you go.  Let no one ever come to you without leaving happier.  Not all of us can do great things.  But we all can do small things with great love.  I believe God loves the world through us— through you and me.”

Teresa of Calcutta


"Even in a time of elephantine vanity and greed, one never has to look far to see the campfires of gentle people.   Lacking any other purpose in life, it would be good enough to live for their sake."

Garrison Keillor, The Prairie Home Companion


"In the Incarnation the whole human race recovers the dignity of the image of God.   Thereafter, any attack, even on the least of men, is an attack on Christ, who took on the form of man, and in his own Person restored the image of God in all.

Through our relationship with the Incarnation, we recover our true humanity, and at the same time are delivered from that perverse individualism which is the consequence of sin, and recover our solidarity with all mankind."

Dietrich Bonhoeffer

Stocks attempted a rally, once again, but faltered in the afternoon

Gold and silver staged rallies, and managed to hold on to them.

The Dollar fell back to the 102 handle.

The VIX declined.

There will be a stock option expiration tomorrow.

Next Wednesday the 25^th there will be a precious metals option expiration on the Comex.

Risks remain elevated, and despite some occasional soirees into special situations, one remains relatively secure on 'the higher ground.'

Do you wish to have a good shepherd?

You are called to be one.

You are being called to serve Him— in the afflicted, in the weak, in the unwanted, in all the little ones, His sheep. 

And in being one, you will find one, and with it repentance, forgiveness, and thankfulness.

Have a pleasant evening.

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Peace That Surpasses All Understanding

 

"The 20th century has been characterized by three developments of great political importance: The growth of democracy, the growth of corporate power, and the growth of corporate propaganda as a means of protecting corporate power against democracy."

Alex Carey, Taking the Risk out of Democracy, 1995


"Why are people so reluctant to believe that sociopaths and narcissists can use the power of the pen to prey on people?  Because they are well spoken and organized?  We would contend that these are the most dangerous of the emotionally warped with a need to acquire, dominate and control, because they are smarter and more calculating than the impulse murderers, burglars, rapists, thieves, and pedophiles. 

There is a need for economic law and enforcement as there is a need for the less cerebral, hairy knuckled criminal law and enforcement.  The notion that people become naturally good, rational and well-adjusted because they are wearing a suit is ludicrous, especially to anyone who has worked with many of those who move in the upper echelons of money and power.

There will always be those at the extremes who need to 'take it to the limit,' with a well stocked foreign retreat in case things get ugly.  But for most of us, restoring a sense of justice and order and putting the nation back into some kind of working balance will be high on the priority list, if not for ourselves, then for our families. 

 Its been a long time coming, it will be a long time gone.  But it has been done before by those who created this nation, and it can be done to restore it again. The sooner we start, the sooner it will be over. 

Jesse, Predator Class, 26 December 2008

"Rejoice in the Lord always; and again I will say, rejoice; show patience and consideration to all, for the Lord is always near.  Let nothing make you anxious; but with prayer, and by supplication, and with thanksgiving, let your needs be made known unto God; and the peace of the Lord, which surpasses all understanding, will guard your hearts and your minds, in Christ Jesus." 

Philippians 4:4-7


"Caesar was swimming in blood, Rome and the whole pagan world was mad.  But those who had had enough of transgression and madness, those who were trampled upon, those whose lives were misery and oppression, all the weighed down, all the sad, all the unfortunate, came to hear the wonderful tidings of God, who out of love for men had given Himself to be crucified and redeem their sins.

When they found a God whom they could love, they had found that which the society of the time could not give any one— happiness and love."

Henryk Sienkiewicz, Quo Vadis, 1905

Target, in its earnings report and forecast, shocked the markets with the fear that all is not well with the economy.

Is Target itself so pivotal?  Even when taken as an indicator with Walmart? 

Maybe but looks very much like a trigger event, for a market that was very much predisposed to a fairly sharp decline.

You may notice on the charts that the main equity index futures came down to test the prior 'second law.'

And we'll mark it as a backtest of the low unless of course the markets continue to sharply decline from here.

This latest 'failed rally' seems a bit short according to our crash models.  But we can keep an open mind.

Gold managed to hold some ground in a day marked by general liquidation selling.

Silver not so much.

Aren't you glad to be watching this latest market conflagration safely from higher ground?

Whenever it comes, you probably won't like what comes next.

Have a pleasant evening.