This is a funny election season in the US. Yes it is still early times, and many things may happen between now and next November. But one thing for certain is that the people of the US are rejecting the fake popular reform of corporate brand Obama, and the smarmy deceitfulness and slick branding of mainstream party politics.
Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are 'genuine' candidates, whether you agree with them or not. People are flocking to their messages because they see them as telling the truth about what they think, and what they will do, without bowing down to special interests for money, or saying whatever people wish to hear to get elected and then do whatever they wish for those who pay them.
And make no mistake, the mainstream establishment in the US, in the media and the professional political ranks, hate and fear both of them. The establishment candidates, duly anointed by the moneyed interests, are Hillary and Jeb, with some designated stand-ins should either of them stumble too badly. And the established party machines and their enablers will do everything in their power to make sure that you can only choose one or the other of their approved products next year.
And we are seeing similar phenomenon abroad in the UK with Corbyn and Fararge, and in France with Le Pen.
Obviously I do not know how this will end. I am not necessarily hopeful in the short term. If they were wise, the 'establishment' would allow for peaceful evolution, and more forcefully rein in the abuses and plundering being done by themselves and their predatory patrons. And they have shown little wisdom, or self-awareness, existing as they do in hermetically sealed envelopes of money and power.
With the approval ratings of the Congress bouncing along at single digits, is there any wonder that the people are indicating 'no confidence' in the existing two party system? How can anyone who watches the political system fail to see this, unless they are blind to the forest for the trees, or just willfully blind for their paycheck. And this often becomes painfully obvious on NBC and Fox, who often act as the flagship media outlets for the two major parties.
Times of great change can bring great dangers. But I think one of the tenets of my long term forecast is coming to fruition. The people are starting to wake up, slowly but surely, almost one person at a time. They are getting angry, and motivated, as the overreach and pride of the financial interests continues to grow. They are not buying the globalists' message of rule by multinational corporations and a remote elite. And with this brings both opportunity, and danger.
"We are imperial, and we are in decline... People are losing confidence in the Empire."
This is the key theme of Larry Wilkerson's presentation. He never really questions whether empire is good or bad, sustainable or not, and at what costs. At least he does not so in the same manner as that great analyst of empire Chalmers Johnson.
It is important to understand what people who are in and near positions of power are thinking if you wish to understand what they are doing, and what they are likely to do. What ought to be done is another matter.
Wilkerson is a Republican establishment insider who has served for many years in the military and the State Department. Here he is giving a 40 minute presentation to the Centre For International Governance in Canada in October, 2014.
I find his point of view of things interesting and revealing, even on those points where I may not agree with his perspective. There also seem to be some internal inconsistencies in his line of thinking.
But what makes his perspective important is that it represents a mainstream view of many professional politicians and 'the Establishment' in America. Not the hard right of the Republican party, but much of what constitutes the recurring political establishment of the US.
As I have discussed here before, I do not particularly care so much if a trading indicator has a fundamental basis in reality, as long as enough people believe in and act on it. Then it is worth watching as self-fulfilling prophecy. And the same can be said of political and economic memes.
At minute 48:00 Wilkerson gives a response to a question about the growing US debt and of the role of the petrodollar in the Empire, and the efforts by others to 'undermine it' by replacing it. This is his 'greatest fear.'
He speaks about 'a principal advisor to the CIA Futures project' and the National Intelligence Council (NIC), whose views and veracity of claims are being examined closely by sophisticated assets. He believes that both Beijing and Moscow are complicit in an attempt to weaken the dollar.
This includes the observation that "gold is being moved in sort of unique ways, concentrated in secret in unique ways, and capitals are slowly but surely divesting themselves of US Treasuries. So what you are seeing right now in the supposed strengthening of the dollar is a false impression."
The BRICS want to use oil to "force the US to lose its incredibly powerful role in owning the world's transactional reserve currency." It gives the US a great deal of power of empire that it would not ordinarily have, since the ability to add debt without consequence enables the expenditures to sustain it.
Later, after listening to this again, the thought crossed my mind that this advisor might be a double agent using the paranoia of the military to achieve the ends of another. Not for the BRICS, but for the Banks. The greatest beneficiary of a strong dollar, which is a terrible burden to the real economy, is the financial sector. This is why most countries seek to weaken or devalue their currencies to improve their domestic economies as a primary objective. This is not so far-fetched as military efforts to provoke 'regime change' have too often been undertaken to support powerful commercial interests.
Here is just that particular excerpt of the Q&A and the question of increasing US debt.
I am not sure how much the policy makers and strategists agree with this theory about gold. But there is no doubt in my mind that they believe and are acting on the theory that oil, and the dollar control of oil, the so-called petrodollar, is the key to maintaining the empire.
Wilkerson reminds me very much of a political theoretician who I knew at Georgetown University. He talks about strategic necessities, the many occasions in which the US has used its imperial power covertly to overthrow or attempt to overthrow governments in Iran, Venezuela, Syria, and the Ukraine. He tends to ascribe all these actions to selflessness, and American service to the world in maintaining a balance of power where 'all we ask is a plot of ground to bury our dead.'
A typical observation is that the US did indeed overthrow the democratically elected government of Mossadegh in 1953 in Iran. But 'the British needed the money' from the Anglo-Iranian oil company in order to rebuild after WW II. Truman had rejected the notion, but Eisenhower the military veteran and Republic agreed to it. Wilkerson says specifically that Ike was 'the last expert' to hold the office of the Presidency.
This is what is meant by realpolitik. It is all about organizing the world under a 'balance of power' that is favorable to the Empire and the corporations that have sprung up around it.
As someone with a long background and interest in strategy I am not completely unsympathetic to these lines of thinking. But like most broadly developed human beings and students of history and philosophy one can see that the allure of such thinking, without recourse to questions of restraint and morality and the fig leaf of exceptionalist thinking, is a terrible trap, a Faustian bargain. It is the rationalization of every nascent tyranny. It is the precursor to the will to pure power for its own sake.
The challenges of empire now according to Wilkerson are:
1) Disequilibrium of wealth - 1/1000th of the US owns 50% of its total wealth. The current economic system implies long term stagnation (I would say stagflation. The situation in the US is 1929, and in France, 1789. All the gains are going to the top.
2) BRIC nations are rising and the Empire is in decline, largely because of US strategic miscalculations. The US is therefor pressing harder towards war in its desperation and desire to maintain the status quo. And it is dragging a lot of good and honest people into it with our NATO allies who are dependent on the US for their defense.
3) There is a strong push towards regional government in the US that may intensify as global warming and economic developments present new challenges to specific areas. For example, the water has left the Southwest, and it will not be coming back anytime soon.
This presentation ends about minute 40, and then it is open to questions which is also very interesting.
Lawrence Wilkerson, Distinguished Visiting Professor of Government and Public Policy at the College of William Mary, and former Chief of Staff to U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell.
The US markets were very sleepy today, with little serious conviction in any direction.
Gold and silver just drifted, held in their places after the excitement of the beginning of the week.
There was no delivery activity at The Bucket Shop yesterday, and just trickles of bullion out of the warehouses as shown below.
Let's see if next week brings us any surprised, most likely from overseas.
I do think that looking out six months that we will likely see a widening of the swings in volatility, as events drive real people to take certain decisions, and the Banks and their government associates seek to stabilize and maintain their status quo.
But why guess? Let us just take it as it comes. In particular we will be watching the volatility swings in stocks, and for the usual and important support and resistance levels on the charts.
In particular physical delivery of bullion is worth watching, especially since there is so much disinformation being spread around about it. What worries the financiers is always of interest to common people like us.
FOMC minutes next week. I suppose we will have to endure the usual speculation and market antics associated with 'will they or won't they.'
The Fed will raise rates at least 25 bp off the zero bound in September or December at the latest unless the wheels are falling off the global economy. It has little to do with any real recovery, but is just another manifestation of their bank-centric, one percent trickle-downism.
If you have a chance try to watch the full five part series about The Man Who Knew Too Muchfrom The Real News. I found the discussion to be fascinating.
Watching the conversations related to the political scene are a little more interesting now that the politicos are swarming the channels in anticipation of the big Election next year. I have included an updated chart of the 'Political Continuum' below.
You can divert yourself on these hot lazy days by trying to place the various candidates on the charts, and perhaps even yourselves. The toughest ones to place are likely to be opportunists, narcissists and sociopaths.
This is because they may have no inherent principles others than self-advancement or youthful experimentation. I know that I moved all over the chart when I was younger, and spent quite a bit of time on right side of the circle, but as I grew and aged and raised a family I started settling in the center and then to slightly left of center in the 'progressives.' There are tests online that will help to place you if you answer them honestly.
I am not surprised that with such a range of choices and so many candidates, that so many people feel alienated with no clear cut choice. I would find myself very hard-pressed to vote for either of the two establishment candidates, Bush or Clinton. And the rest of the broad range of the candidates seem to have been made from a cookie cutter, except for two. And therein lies both opportunity and danger. But it is still very early days and things may look very differently by Spring.
Reform is a lonely watch, because you are without a doubt running against the mainstream current of the powerful in a society. One has to find some principle other than self-interest to sustain them. It is a good time therefore for religious feelings, narcissist pre-occupation, banal greed, and political extremism. People will always find something to worship, one way or the other.
One might think that most of the adults on Wall Street left early for their Summer homes and the beaches, having held off the threat of a market plunge with which we began this week.
If you look to the SP 500 chart in particular you will see that the SP futures are in a symmetrical triangle which is a 'decision point.' In a strong uptrend it is more often a continuation pattern, but at this point I would judge it to be much more of the crossroads, after the long bull run in stocks.
Next week is likely to be quiet UNLESS we see more exogenous surprises, most likely from overseas, in places such as Greece, the Ukraine, or China.
The organic action in the market is of much less influence than in a healthy market, and the major indices in particular seem to be firmly in the hands of the trading desks and their HFT algos.
The swings in volatility, if they continue in their Jekyll & Hyde manner of the recent past, may likely culminate in the establishment of a very visible major top, and a serious correction into the Autumn.
But that is just a possibility for now, although many will make the call in the hopes of a hit.
"Mass surveillance is not about protecting people; it is about social control.
The shadow government is its own enterprise, and it rewards those who pay obesiance quite richly"
Here is the second segment of a fascinating five part interview about the deep state and the mechanics of what some might call corporatism.
You may watch all five segments of this interview at The Real Newshere. Note that they are listed in descending order on the site, so start from the bottom up to see them in order.
"As flies to wanton boys are we to the gods.
They kill us for their sport."
William Shakespeare, King Lear
Gold and silver took a break from the last few days, as the yellow dawg and silver rocket slumped a little on the porch after chasing the volatility of the markets around the barn.
That disruption was caused by the China currency devaluations which reminded those who have not been paying attention that a) there is a currency war underway, b) there is no sustainable economic recovery despite rosy reassurances and the facade of statistical growth, and c) there are a number of bubbles in financial assets that have been functioning primarily as wealth transfer mechanisms, and are wobbling in a manner that could bring the economy back to the brink once again.
The Bucket Shop was its usual quiet self yesterday as there were no deliveries to speak of, and no observable action in the warehouses.
Let's see how the metals can go out for the week in tomorrow's trade. Recall that these macro changes tend to happen slowly, and as far as reform of the markets is concerned, there has been very little if any.
Let us pray for those whose hearts are hardened against His grace and loving kindness by greed, fear, and pride, and the seductive illusion and crushing isolation of evil.
We pray that we all may experience the three great gifts of our Lord's suffering and triumph: repentance, forgiveness, and thankfulness. And in so doing, may we obtain abundant life, and with it the peace that surpasses all understanding.
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