Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Recovery™ - Jobs and Wages Drive Sustainable Demand and Thereby GDP

Caravaggio, The Calling of Matthew the Tax Collector

"We are slow to master the great truth that even now Christ is, as it were, walking among us, and by His hand, or eye, or voice, bidding us to follow Him.  We do not understand that His call is a thing that takes place now.  We think it took place in the Apostles' days, but we do not believe in it; we do not look for it in our own case.

I am a link in a chain, a bond of connection between persons.  He has not created me for naught.  I shall do good, I shall do His work. I shall be an angel of peace, a preacher of truth in my own place while not intending it, if I do but keep His commandments.

Therefore I will trust Him.  Whatever I am, I can never be thrown away.  If I am in sickness, my sickness may serve Him; in perplexity, my perplexity may serve Him.  If I am in sorrow, my sorrow may serve Him. He does nothing in vain.  He knows what He is about.  He may take away my friends. He may throw me among strangers.  He may make me feel desolate, make my spirits sink, hide my future from me—  still He knows what He is about.

Let us feel what we really are— sinners attempting great things.  Let us simply obey God's will, whatever may come.  He can turn all things to our eternal good. Easter day is preceded by the forty days of Lent, to show us that they only who sow in tears shall reap in joy. 

The more we do, the more shall we trust in Christ; and that surely is no morose doctrine, that leads us to soothe our selfish restlessness, and forget our fears, in the vision of the Incarnate Son of God."

John Henry Newman

The Non-Farm Payrolls Report came in light this morning, both in terms of jobs added and real wage growth.

The unemployment percentage went down a bit, but this is relatively meaningless.

I have included the US Labor Participation Rate as the first chart below.

Stocks managed a modest rally based largely on the momentum from this week led by Apple.

The US Dollar was flat.

Gold and silver managed to rebound from another short term oversold condition. Let's see if they can rally next week.

This may have some relationship with the US Dollar and the currency crosses. This was discussed intraday commentary that you may wish to read here.

Please remember Koos Jansen, one of the gold analysts from Bullionstar who specializes in Asian gold flows your prayers, that he may return to full health.  His commentary is missed.

Need little, want less, love more. For those who abide in love abide in God, and God in them.

Have a pleasant weekend.

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Gold Is Running Inverse to the US Dollar For Now And Why This Matters

I read an interesting article yesterday, the point of which was that the price of gold is running as the inverse of the Chinese Yuan.  Bing, bang, boom, end of story.

And there may be some truth to that.  But it is hardly the whole story.

When looking for correlations, one has to consider a number of elements, and try to sort out correlations that are often mixed, and what is coincident moreso than causative.

Below is a chart that compares the price of gold with the inverse of the US Dollar Index (DX).

And it should be noted that this is the price of gold in Dollars.  And so there will always be some effect of the value of the dollar in this, since gold is a world currency and not specifically American.

In my own studies, and multivariate correlation analysis, sometimes gold runs inversely to the dollar, but at other times it runs with it, or somewhat indifferently to it.

So what this shows is the obvious, that there are a number of things that effect its price, and may do so differently at different times.

As I have noted here, many times over the past year or so, the price of gold has been running inverse to the Dollar because it appears that major playrs and hedge funds are trading gold as a currency cross, without regard to its supply and demand as a commodity money, as opposed to a central bank fiat currency. And that at some point this is going to lead to a 'break' in the market.

But I think that a correlation to the Yuan here is probably misplaced. Although it is becoming increasing important on the world stage because of the spectacular growth of its domestic economy, the Chinese Yuan is not driving the value of the US Dollar. And for that matter, it is not even included in the weighting of the Dollar DX Index.

Why quibble though?

The important point is that gold is being traded in the currency crosses. This is not always the case, but sometimes it is. And more importantly, the price of gold is being heavily gamed by speculators, and with increasing leverage if the indications we have are correct.

And because of this, at some point gold, which is somewhat unique because it is a commodity currency, is going to assert its independent nature.  And it may very well blow a hole in the speculative scheming that has been allowed to go on for years, without being checked and moderated by the regulators, even as other paper asset bubbles have been allowed to grow.

It has done so even in the recent past, as it exploded up to $1900, after years of steady price suppression.  And then it fell back to the same old same old, but at a much higher base price than it had been at for almost twenty years.

What changed you might ask?  The disgorgement of gold by the Western Banks encountered a steady and determined accumulation of the physical metal in Asia and the Mideast.  Because of this global central banks went from net sellers to net accumulators.  This trend is well documented and unmistakable.

For those who say that there is no price manipulation of gold, even at this point with all that has been uncovered in the markets, I say have a good day.  Because that debate is surely over, except for the most stubbornly and willfully blind to what is painfully obvious to anyone who carefully watches the trading in the metals as it happens with an open mind to the data.

But again, why quibble?

Let's see how this unfolds, and keep an eye on the 'gold float' which is the physical gold bullion that is available for delivery into the markets of Asia.  Because it is being steadily accumulated there, and is not likely to be reintroduced into the Western markets, except at significantly higher prices.

And in this case, if I and others are correct in our analysis, let the devil take the hindmost when the reversion to the fundamentals occurs, which I believe that it will, and with a vengeance.  It always does, but eventually.  And that is where trading and prudent portfolio management come in to play.

Markets go to extremes because most speculators are clever, but not wise.  They will keep on a trend and a 'winning' trade often until it is utterly exhausted, and then run for the exits, leaving the carnage they leave behind to be taken care of by others.  And all that you will see of them is when they come back for a handout, a bailout, for the very damage that they themselves caused, but will blame on others.

The Real News: Is Trump Betraying the American People?

What does Trump really think about Russia? Does he understand it, or not?

Is the Russia Russia hysteria a serious threat?

Or is the neoliberalism of the American oligarchy and their Russian counterparts the greatest threats?

The transcript of this interview will be available at The Real News.

Related:  Larry Wilkerson Responds To Bill Maher and His Hysterical Jingoism

Bill Binney In His Own Words: 'A Collaborative Conspiracy to Subvert the Government of the US'

"None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe that they are free."

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

William Edward Binney is a former highly placed intelligence official with the United States National Security Agency (NSA) turned whistleblower who resigned on October 31, 2001, after more than 30 years with the agency.

He was a high-profile critic of his former employers during the George W. Bush administration, and later criticized the NSA's data collection policies during the Barack Obama administration.

In 2016, he said the U.S. intelligence community's assessment that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election was false.

Wikipedia, Bill Binney

Because of his analysis in conjunction with Veteran Intelligent Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) that has tended to carefully debunk the Russia Russia narrative, Binney has not been given much airtime on certain channels within the mainstream news media.  So like you I had not heard of him except recently when reading something else.

I found this recent interview to be very interesting.  I am not qualified or sufficiently well-informed to assess it, but listen to it for yourself and see what you think. It would seem to be worth your time at least.

He has some good things to say about Donald Trump and draining the swamp. And you know how I feel about his Presidency. So there must be something there for me to find it worth hearing.

He discussed a number of controversial topics including 9/11, etc.

Binney certainly has the right pedigree to be an informed whistleblower, and he has never been brought to heel or silenced, so he must have something going for him.  He does seem to be extraordinarily well-informed. I would imagine that if it was possible that he would be charged or discredited or smeared.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts -Clown Cars Rampant on a Field of Greed - AAPL Gets Four Comma Market Cap

"Wealth, in even the most improbable cases, manages to convey the aspect of intelligence."

John Kenneth Galbraith


“The downward spiral of dumbness in America is about to hit a new low.”

Hunter S. Thompson


“Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it.”

Laurence J. Peter

Stocks climbed higher today led by big cap tech, which in turn was led by Apple, which managed to close as the first trillion dollar market cap US stock. Huzzah!

The US Dollar managed to close over the 95 handle again on expectations that the Fed will keep raising rates because of our strong recovery.

Gold and silver sold off a bit in anticipation of the Non-Farm Payrolls report tomorrow, as hedge funds pile in on the short side of the futures.

The Trump EPA has decided to bailout the US auto manufacturers, and the middle finger to consumers and the environment, and is rolling back fuel efficiency and emission targets.  Yay us!

Did anyone else notice that Russia is positioning its military on the border of Syria and the Golan Heights?   I think not.

Need little, want less, love more. For those who abide in love abide in God, and God in them.

Non-Farm Payrolls Report tomorrow.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Much Ado About Very Little

"I hold that the price of silver, gold and other metals is artificially derived at due to excessive speculation on the COMEX at the hands of managed money technical funds on one side and other traders, mostly commercials, on the other side, with JPMorgan playing a dominant role in the process.

As a result of JPMorgan’s outsized influence, the price of silver has remained artificially depressed in price, while the bank has used the depressed price to not only amass billions of dollars in paper trading profits, but it has also accumulated 750 million ounces of physical silver on the cheap, along with 20 million ounces of physical gold."

Ted Butler, A Simple Equation, 1 August 2018,

Ted Butler is the dean of those who comment on the trading structures of Comex silver.

As far as the Fed and the system's regulatory process goes, never in the history of financial endeavor have so many, done so much, for the benefit of so few.

Today the Fed did nothing about its benchmark rate today, and provided only minor tweaks to its statement.  This was as expected.

There is a high probability that they will raise rates in September. They will do so unless the economy visibly falls off the rails.

They wish to get the short term rate high enough to give themselves room for policy actions, eg. 'cuts', when this current bubble which they have created implodes, for the third time since the recent turn of the century.  But they must move slowly, or they risk inverting the yield curve, which is an ominous sign for the equity markets.

Stocks were weak all day, with the SP 500 showing the greater weakness as compared to big cap tech in the NDX.

Gold and silver were off a bit. What a surprise.

The US Dollar was marginally higher.

Need little, want less, love more. For those who abide in love abide in God, and God in them.

Have a pleasant evening.