25 May 2013

Weekend Reading: John Henry Newman On Pride and 'Cheap Grace'


"Cheap grace is the grace we bestow on ourselves. Cheap grace is the preaching of forgiveness without requiring repentance, baptism without church discipline, Communion without confession....

Cheap grace is grace without discipleship, grace without the cross.”

Dietrich Bonhoeffer

"Yet such in one shape or other is the way with the multitude of men everywhere and at all times; they do not see the image of Almighty God before them, and ask themselves what He wishes: if once they did this they would begin to see how much He requires, and they would earnestly come to Him, both to be pardoned for what they do wrong, and for the power to do better.

And, for the same reason that they do not please Him, they succeed in pleasing themselves. For that contracted, defective range of duties, which falls so short of God’s law, is just what they can fulfill; or rather they choose it, and keep to it, because they can fulfill it.

Hence, they become both self-satisfied and self-sufficient; – they think they know just what they ought to do, and that they do it all; and in consequence they are very well content with themselves, and rate their merit very high, and have no fear at all of any future scrutiny into their conduct, which may befall them...

And such, I say, is the religion of the natural man in every age and place; – often very beautiful on the surface, but worthless in God’s sight; good, as far as it goes, but worthless and hopeless, because it does not go further, because it is based on self-sufficiency, and results in self-satisfaction.

I grant, it may be beautiful to look at, as in the instance of the young ruler whom our Lord looked at and loved, yet sent away sad; it may have all the delicacy, the amiableness, the tenderness, the religious sentiment, the kindness, which is actually seen in many a father of a family, many a mother, many a daughter, in the length and breadth of these kingdoms, in a refined and polished age like this; but still it is rejected by the heart-searching God, because all such persons walk by their own light, not by he True Light of men, because self is their supreme teacher, and because they pace round and round in the small circle of their own thoughts and of their own judgments, careless to know what God says to them, and fearless of being condemned by Him, if only they stand approved in their own sight...

Yes, it is the ignorance of our understanding, it is our spiritual blindness, it is our banishment from the presence of Him, who is the source and the standard of all Truth, which is the cause of this meagre, heartless religion of which men are commonly so proud..."

John Henry Newman

The prayer of children is full of needs, and sometimes ostentatious thanks and requests aloud to impress others.   As we grow older, our needs are supplemented by requests for strength, and for the knowledge of God's part for us, His will.

If we wish to grow, we pray that God will show us our shortcomings, the ways in which we have neglected to do His will.  The times and places in which we turned aside from His call, not because we were defiant, but because we were blinded with distractions, and negligent in our own self-satisfaction and illusions of self-sufficiency.

If done well, we can find this examination to be an experience in growth, bearing in mind that growth is almost always a long process that is, at times, uncomfortable, and rarely cheap.  But to take up that burden with His support is the only path to life.


Ted Butler: Busting the Perfect Crime


Obviously I do not know if the CFTC is going a good job of regulating the metals markets or not.

And that is a big part of the problem. I have little confidence that they are doing a good job of maintaining honest and efficient markets based on what I am seeing in the futures markets almost every day.

For an agency to have an ongoing investigation of manipulation in a global market like silver, with NO offical report having been issued after almost five years, is not up to the expectations that the American people have for its government.

Indeed the silence of the Agency borders on arrogant disregard, given the many, many complaints of the appearance of irregularities it has received.

This is especially true in light of the several recent revelations of egregious market manipulation by the Banks in LIBOR, energy, and derivatives markets. And these are some of the same actors in the alleged silver manipulation.

Here is what Ted Butler has to say about it. And it makes sense to have the GAO review the Agency to reassure people that they are doing their jobs properly, and if there is a problem with oversight from within the Administration itself, whether through aloof indifference, or the undue influence of outside parties.

And if there is some manner of funding problems and manpower, I am sure that the CFTC would like to take its priorities from the people whom it serves and whose confidence is its highest mission, and not the Banks and Exchanges whom they are expected to regulate.

Busting the Perfect Crime
Theodore Butler
May 24, 2013 - 12:23pm

A subscriber recently commented that the Oligarchs who rule Russia only wish they got to run things as efficiently as how JPMorgan and the big banks control our financial markets, particularly in the trading of precious metals. Based upon the last few days, it’s hard to argue with that. On Sunday evening shortly after 6 PM, the price of silver was taken down 10% within a few minutes on an insignificant number of contracts (1600), evoking memories of the infamous 13% ($6) decline on the May 1 Sunday evening of 2011. If the Russian criminals oversaw silver trading and not the CME Group and the CFTC they could not possibly have rigged prices more corruptly.

What makes the silver (and gold) manipulation the perfect crime are a number of elements; short term price control through High Frequency Trading, compliant regulators and the fact that most victims don’t even realize they are being had, as the sellers are mostly just reacting to the deliberately-set lower prices. It’s hard to end an ongoing crime in progress when so many don’t realize it is in progress. Worse, there are still some who profess that there is no manipulation underway. And for the few who do realize what’s really going on, what can you do about it when the regulators are in bed with the manipulators? Perhaps the options are limited, but that’s not the same as non-existent.

In the last paragraph of the January 5 Weekly Review; I made reference to something I was working on that I preferred not to disclose at that time. I’d like to do so now and ask for your assistance. A little over a year ago, a subscriber sent me a constructive suggestion for how to force the CFTC to do their job and end the silver manipulation. Since I had promised myself that I would never leave any stone unturned in the attempt to end the manipulation, I followed Jeff’s suggestion, although I admit to doing so with as close to zero expectation for success as was possible. The suggestion was to complain to the Government Accountability Office (GAO) about the CFTC. I filed a complaint on their web site hotline www.gao.gov and promptly forgot about the matter. After all, over the years I had complained to every government agency possible and never heard back from anyone.

In December, I got a follow up call from the GAO that caught me so much by surprise that I didn’t know why they were calling me at first. They requested additional information (which I provided) and I have had several conference calls with the agency concerning my allegations of malfeasance by the CFTC in matters related to the silver manipulation. It was only after the first phone call from the agency that I took the time to find out what this agency was all about and I suggest you do the same.

I thought I knew it as the General Accounting Office, but the name was changed in 2004. What I also learned was that this was a unique government agency, separate and distinct from all the other federal agencies, including the CFTC. The GAO reports only to Congress and exists to ensure that all the other federal agencies stay on the up and up. In a practical sense, the GAO is the Inspector General of all the federal agencies. As such (and you can verify this on your own), this agency seems tailor-made to investigate why the CFTC won’t do its job when it comes to the silver manipulation...

Read the entire piece, including what you can do today to support the effort to encourage the GAO
in its Congressional oversight of the CFTC here.

Comex Gold Short Increases Dramatically


"One of these days we will...find ourselves staring right into God's eyes.

 And the first one who blinks is going to lose his testicles."

 Peter O'Toole (Dr. Harry Wolper), Creator

So guys, how good do you think that trading idea that Goldman gave you is going to get resolved?

Last one out of the pool picks up the tab.


Short positions in gold have risen 25% in the last 3 weeks.

Source: Bloomberg, h/t Tyler



24 May 2013

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts


Gold and silver were capped in light pre-holiday trading in the US.

There is some intraday commentary worth reading here and from late last night here.

Have a pleasant weekend. 

See you on Monday.




SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts


Once again the market opened lower, and the dip was bought, in light pre-holiday trading.

Have a pleasant weekend.





Citi's Tom Fitzpatrick: Gold and the US Debt Limit Correlation


According to Citi's analyst Tom Fitzpatrick in his interview at King World News:
"As can be seen from the chart, Gold has never stayed below that “stairway to hell” for very long. Given that the debt limit number is going to continue higher, a re-emergence of Gold strength looks inevitable.

A lot of 'considered opinion' suggests that by the end of the present electoral term (the end of 2016 when new presidential elections take place), that the US debt limit will be at around $22 trillion USD."

Tom has a number of interesting charts which you can see at his KWN interview here.


23 May 2013

Monetary Rapture: The Incredible Disappearing Gold Inventories - Ocean Receding


“I am persuaded that big changes are coming to long standing global currency arrangements.“

Jesse

Gold is flowing from weaker hands to stronger hands, from speculators to central banks and wealthy investors, the multitudes in China and India, and in general from West to East.

Nick Laird of Sharelynx.com does some incredible work tracking and charting almost every aspect of the gold and silver markets. His site is well worth visiting.

I have included some comments from Nick below that touch on some factors that had not yet occurred to me.

Total Ounces In Warehouse Including Both Registered and Eligible

Here is the summation of quite a few repositories/Trusts/ETFs/Funds that list their inventory levels.  


Here is a comment on this from Nick:
Since Dec 31st
Gold holdings have fallen 17.5 %

Yet;
Silver holdings have risen 2.7%
Platinum holdings have risen 0.1%
Palladium holdings have risen 8.2%

I believe that there's a transfer of gold holdings from the publicly visible sector to the private sector where the numbers cannot be followed. Gold holders are taking possession of physical by removing physical from public places, eg. Comex, and selling them from visible accounts, eg. ETFs.

I do believe that there is a lot more to this than meets the eye and that we're seeing the initial transition stages that in a year or two's time we will look back & say 'Aha!' Gold is flowing not just from West to East but also from public to private places, and this I think is solely related to Cyprus and the future implications of a financial meltdown.

I think we're on the verge of the music stopping and a rush to safety.

All we need do is sit back and watch what happens to these public stocks when gold starts rising again. My bet would be that public stocks will continue to dwindle as more people feel unsafe about where their gold is held."

I tend to agree.  I also think that a fear of the 'rehypothecation' of gold, especially in light of the seizure of assets held even with allocated receipts in the failure of MF Global, is driving people to take more care about where they keep their wealth.

As Nick points out, the biggest drawdowns are in gold itself. Ted Butler has recently speculated that some of the bullion banks may be taking inventory on the cheap as GLD disgorges inventory. So something is happening with gold that is not happening in the same way with the other precious metals.

And I am sure that by now you know that I am persuaded that big changes are coming to long standing global currency arrangements.

My first take was that on the whole this remarkable inventory drawdown in public repositories in the West resembles the receding of the ocean after an earthquake. I don't think the bankers realize the signals that they sent to the markets with the manner in which they handled Cyprus. And MF Global and the entire financial crisis for that matter. These things take time to build, and then it seems that suddenly people begin to act.

We will have to wait and see what comes next, and, as Nick points out, what the inventory levels do when the price of gold starts rising again.