SP 500 Futures Daily Chart

The VIX (volatility index) fell to 20.39 today which is near the lows for the year, signaling a complacency in the US equity markets, although the bulls would call it 'the new norm' which is a euphemism for 'all is well again.'

Today the market drifted upwards in light volumes as the risk trade was sold (treasuries, precious metals) although stocks struggled to hold their early gains, and remained in the big rangebound trade from early November.

This is a holiday shortened week, subject to portfolio adjustments and some profit taking, which causes cross currents, but often with an upward bias as the tape gets painted into the year end and the Other People's Money crowd take their bonuses.

We are playing these markets now by holding lightly hedged longs (about 1/6 position) in the metals and miners which we picked up around 1120 gold on average, after the 'sell signal' which we issued here at 1215.

Now we stand pat on all investments and wait for something to break out one way or the other. The dollar is reaching the technical levels we are looking for on a bounce, and now we will see what it is made of.

Markets are being shoved around by the big traders. Do not overtrade in response.

Christmas 2009

They were a boy and girl. Yellow, meagre, ragged, scowling, wolfish; but prostrate, too, in their humility. Where graceful youth should have filled their features out, and touched them with its freshest tints, a stale and shrivelled hand, like that of age, had pinched, and twisted them, and pulled them into shreds. Where angels might have sat enthroned, devils lurked, and glared out menacing. No change, no degradation, no perversion of humanity, in any grade, through all the mysteries of wonderful creation, has monsters half so horrible and dread.

Scrooge started back, appalled. Having them shown to him in this way, he tried to say they were fine children, but the words choked themselves, rather than be parties to a lie of such enormous magnitude.

``Spirit! are they yours?'' Scrooge could say no more.

``They are Man's,'' said the Spirit, looking down upon them. ``And they cling to me, appealing from their fathers."

"This boy is Ignorance. This girl is Want. Beware them both, and all of their degree, but most of all beware this boy, for on his brow I see that written which is Doom, unless the writing be erased. Deny it!'' cried the Spirit, stretching out its hand towards the City. ``Slander those who tell it ye! Admit it for your false purposes, and make it worse! And await the end!''

``Have they no refuge or resource?'' cried Scrooge.

``Are there no prisons?'' said the Spirit, turning on him for the last time with his own words. ``Are there no workhouses?''

The bell struck twelve.

Scrooge looked about him for the Ghost, and saw it not. As the last stroke ceased to vibrate, he remembered the prediction of old Jacob Marley, and lifting up his eyes, beheld a solemn Phantom, draped and hooded, coming, like a mist along the ground, towards him.

Charles Dickens, A Christmas Carol

“Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed." Mohandas K. Ghandi

Gold Hit With a Bear Raid Yesterday - Memories of Citi's Eurobond Price Manipulation

If the longs had been exiting the market, the open interest would have declined more significantly.

These big plunges in price look to be driven by short selling, with weak hands being driven out, and then short covering or determined buyers stepping back in to maintain the overall number of contracts at a relatively steady level, but with some good profits from covering their short positions at cheaper prices.  There is also a lucrative cross trade to be had in other markets like the mining stocks.  An operation in bullion is often preceded by some noticeable movements in the miners.

Recall the case in the Euro bond market, wherein Citi came in and sold an enormous volume precipitously, running the stops and driving the price down sharply. The Citi trader came back in and covered his shorts, pocketing the difference in his market disruption based on size. This trading strategy was known as 'the Dr. Evil' trade at Citi, but has deep roots in speculative market manipulation, with its counterpart being the bull pool.

Citi Fined for Euro Bond Trades By British Regulator; Italy Indicts Citi Traders; Citi Haunted by Dr. Evil Trades in Europe; Citi Agrees to Pay 14m in Bond Scandal

I recall reading at the time how the Citi traders were incredulous at being outed by the regulators, because that is how they would do things in the States, running the stops and using outsized positions to perform short term price manipulation. In the states 'price management' has become quite notorious around key market events, such as option expiration. It is so prevalent that it has its own momentum among traders. The only time that it is remarked by the exchanges in the states, however, is when other prop trading desks are caught by it unawares and complain. The public is fair game.

Even the Treasury recently got into the act, with young Tim's Treasury granting a $38 Billion tax break to Citi in order to enhance their financials and the price of their stock.

Citi had quite a record of bad behaviour around the world a few years ago. Citi Never Sleeps The power of money corrupts, and under-regulated banks that have the power to create and confer wealth can corrupt all that they touch, absolutely: regulators, media, exchanges, economists, politicians.

Has Citi cleaned up its act? Well, it was one of the banks at the heart of the debt securitization scandal that almost brought the US financial system to its knees last year, and is still a major source of global instability. The US seems unable to do anything to keeps its house in order. But in fairness, all the big US banks were caught up in the scandals, most notoriously in those exposed by Eliot Spitzer, who was later 'taken out' in a scandal exposed by a special federal investigation ordered by the Bank's good friends in government.

This may give you some idea of how the US markets continue to operate these days, with the banks loaded with cash and regulators turning a blind eye to their antics and outrageously non-productive economy related trading positions. The large hedge funds do the same things, but do not have the clout that the banks have, especially with the commingling of guaranteed deposits and subsidized liquidity from the Fed. These banks do not lend; they gamble while rigging the game. The most outrageous example is Goldman Sachs, the upstart which bought the lordly title of Bank from the Fed, and all the privileges of seignorage therein. Droit du seigneur with the public money, at the heart of its creation.

It was not all that long ago that speculative manipulation by the predators at Enron in the energy markets caused widespread disruption in the State of California. And little has been done by the US regulators to prevent this happening again and again. All is hushed up to maintin the facade of freedom and public confidence. Reform is continually weakened and placed on hold for "the good of the financial system" and its global competitiveness.

Barrick Gold filed a motion to dismiss the 2003 price manipulation lawsuit against it and J. P. Morgan on the basis that some foreign central banks (England, Germany?) and other bullion banks were involved, but were not named as defendants. These foreign central banks were immune from litigation. Naturally the scandal kicked up by this caused the defendants to regroup their strategy and the motion was withdrawn. Barricks February, 2003 Motion to Dismiss

The claim that J. P. Morgan was engaged in fulfilling government policy in its price manipulation was intriguing indeed. It is too bad that it was not granted and sent to discovery and disclosure. But it does highlight one potential reason why a government might not wish to downsize its 'too big to fail' banks, who can become instruments of financial engineering and policy, both foreign and domestic. Who can say what is truth, because unfortunately despite the many abuses, cases are normally settled with no admission of guilt, wristslap fines, and genuine reform is push aside for the sake of temporary expediency.

In closure, the opaque short position in the silver market held by J. P. Morgan and a few other banks is a potential scandal and a disgrace for a 'reform' administration. They do not deserve the benefit of the doubt any longer. Innocent until proven guilty is correct procedure for the courts, but 'where there is smoke there is fire' and 'once bitten twice shy' has its own place in the court of public opinion where trust is a necessary component of good judgement.

Friday, December 18, 2009

The CME Final, just posted, indicates that open interest yesterday rose 475 lots (1.48 tonnes) to 502,930 contracts. Volume remained as reported in the Preliminary at 258,576 lots, 15% above the estimate. See CME Daily Bulletin.

For a $28.80 down day (indeed down $46 intraday) this result is astonishing. Considerable stop losses must have been triggered, but apparently fresh short selling predominated.

Of course, the CME reported a similar event following gold’s $48.80 drop on Friday Dec 4th – only to apparently slip a 21,000 lot fall into the following Monday’s data

But then they did have the excuse of huge volume –almost 400,000 lots that day. And presumably they do not actually want to make these errors.

So on its face the gold market has seen the entry of a large volume of new Shorts, who will have to contend with reviving Eastern physical appetite. If commercially motivated, this is likely to be an alarming experience.

Ron Paul On Bernanke and the Fed

La Belle Dame Does Wall Street - Again

The US equity market is heavy today ahead of an option expiration given the failure last night of the Citi stock offering, the rise in unemployment claims, and of course the slight from la belle dame to the prowess and staying power of Lloyd and John.

Even though Meredith Whitney is 'on a roll' as they say in the States, it is the rationale for her cuts that is of the most interest to us. These have not yet been disclosed. We will update the details when they become known.

Today is also the confirmation hearing for Ben Bernanke with the requisite endorsement of key Democrats like banking lackey Chris Dodd. The opposition is largely Republican with few Democratic defections.

It is ironic that Ben and his Fed are still stonewalling the Congress on the delivery of requested information. Have the Democrats no shame?

As an aside, we knew top Obama advisor Rahm Emanuel was a bare knuckle politician with his roots in the Chicago political machine. We did not know until today that his role was as a fundraiser (colloguially known as 'bagman') for then Mayor Richard Daley. Talk about bringing the heart of darkness into a reform administration!


WSJ
Meredith Whitney Cuts Goldman, Morgan Stanley Estimates
BY BRENDAN CONWAY
DECEMBER 17, 2009, 9:12 A.M. ET

NEW YORK--Meredith Whitney cut earnings estimates for Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley through 2011.

Ms. Whitney, head of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group and known for her bearish calls during the financial crisis, now predicts Goldman's earnings per share for the fourth quarter will be $6, down from $6.38. She also said its earnings will be $19.57 a share this year, $19.65 next year and $24.04 in 2011. The cuts take nearly 40 cents off the 2009 Goldman estimate, more than $2 off next year's and $3.44 off 2011's.

The Morgan Stanley 2010 earnings projection was cut to $2.60 a share from $2.63. For the year after, the forecast was dropped to $2.75 from $3.28.

The rationale for Whitney's weaker outlook on Goldman and Morgan Stanley was not immediately available. The figures appeared in a Wednesday note to clients...

US Dollar (DX) Daily Chart - Intermediate View

The US Dollar (DX) index has broken up through short term resistance.

Here is the longer term view of this chart, and its bounce from the measuring objective called out by its failure at the neckline in the large H&S top.

The dollar strength is largely driven here by euro weakness, as a comparative index, and a short term oversold condition that is being quickly worked off. Currencies tend to overshoot their technical moves in the short term, but in the long term are much less subject to price manipulation than stocks, excepting of course the official pegs set by central banks which are all too obvious, except for those blinded by ulterior motivations.

Let's see how much of its decline from the neckline it can retrace. Technically it can go all the way to the neckline without invalidating the chart formation, although this does seem unlikely.

Treasury Cancels Plans to Sell Citi Stake After Failed Equity Offering Stings Shareholders

The shareholders of Citigroup should be furious at the greedy and reckless actions of Citi's management in diluting their shares in order to obtain a freer hand in granting themselves fat bonuses.

Tonight's equity offering failed to bring in a sufficient price, serving up a significant 20% discount to existing holders of the stock.

And the de facto largest shareholders of Citigroup, the US taxpaying public and all holders of US Federal Reserve Notes, took quite a paper loss on their holdings because of Tim and Larry's miscalculations regarding the market's willingness to swallow more large chunks of questionable debt riddled equity from the US zombie banks.

Tim decided that because of this failed offering, the Treasury will cancel its plans to unload your 33% of Citi's shares, preferring to consider the quick flip a longer term investment, as failed trades are often wont to become.

And in retrospect, Timmy's decision to convert the government's preferred stock to common stock is looking to be exceptionally.... stupid, or fishy, or all of the above.

Never fear. We are sure that the Obama Administration can reach out to the Working Group on Markets to put a bid under those shares at some future date, perhaps with help from puffed up government estimates of the vitality of the US economy as a wind at its back.

Technically, Citi can pay back the TARP money from the proceeds. Can they have the gall to do that and pay themselves bonuses this year to boot, which is the basis for this exercise in dilution in the first place? This shows the farce that the Obama financial reforms really are. Nothing has changed except that big bank losses were transferred to the public debt, and the excess of the US financial sector continues with government support.

Financial engineering to maintain an imbalanced status quo, even with the mighty Zimbabwe Ben at the helm, is always and everywhere an economic morass, a Vietnam of moral hazard, and a political tarbaby of increasingly distasteful policy decisions. All for the sake of a wealthy few, the rapacious predatory class, an economic elite that traffics in betrayal and the breaking of oaths.

Such is the tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive.

Gentlemen, start your presses...

Reuters
U.S. delays its $5 bln Citi sale after weak pricing
By Dan Wilchins and David Lawder

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury delayed a plan to sell its $5 billion of Citigroup Inc (C.N) shares after a stock offering by the bank attracted weak demand and priced at a much lower-than-expected $3.15 a share.

The bank sold $20 billion of stock and convertible bonds to repay funds it owes to the government so it can avoid the executive compensation restrictions that came with multiple U.S. bailouts.

But raising that capital came at a steep cost to shareholders, whose shares are worth 20 percent less than their closing level on Friday, before the bank announced its plan for repaying funds to the government.

"It's a terrific deal for Citigroup's managers, who can get paid more, and a terrible deal for shareholders. The company paid a huge price for this capital," said Sean Egan, principal at ratings agency Egan-Jones Ratings.

Citigroup was the third major U.S. bank to launch a multibillion-dollar share sale in December and the multitude of share sales likely dampened demand, analysts said.

"Buyers are in control of the process now," said Blake Howells, director of research at Becker Capital Management in Portland, Oregon.

The share sale price is less than the $3.25 price at which the government bought them earlier this year as part of an emergency rescue of the No. 3 U.S. bank, shrinking the paper value of the government's 7.7 billion shares to $24.2 billion. That stake was originally worth $25 billion and in October was worth nearly $40 billion.

Treasury "is not going to sell at a loss. That's the bottom line," a source familiar with the situation said.

The U.S. decided not to sell any shares at this time, and has agreed not to sell Citi shares for 90 days, the bank and the Treasury said. The government owns about one-third of Citigroup's shares.

The U.S. government still plans to sell its Citigroup shares within the next year, a Treasury spokesman said.

The government's decision not to sell shares was an about-face from Monday, when Citigroup said the government would sell up to $5 billion of shares alongside the bank's offering....

SP December Futures Daily Chart: Sideways

Citigroup has a stock offering coming out, perhaps tonight.

Option Expiration this week.

Comex could not stuff the metals even with a surprise margin increase in gold.

Stocks are drifting sideways on light volumes. Fundamentals mean little or nothing.
Its mostly arbitrage and technical trading right now by the predators, trying to bleed the specs.

Play the market you have. And perhaps the best position for now is out.
This is a good time for a breather. Next year could be a triple diamond run.

Corporate bonds look like a deathtrap, but anything can happen.

Time's Man of the Year: In Ben We Trust

It was thoughtful of Time to give this award to Ben on the day before his confirmation hearings.




Flashback: Ben's Award Winning Performance for Wall Street Begins....




Coming Soon: Ben Burns the Big Pile of Money...




Life after the Treasury's financial debacle was hard for Tim....



"Yeah, I eat it. It's good!... Need your taxes done?"