Very Long Term US Dollar Chart

The revaluation of the SDR should be occurring around the end of 2010. As you know it is composed of a valuation basket of currencies that is adjusted every five years. There has been a recent change in voting power in the IMF that may give more weight to the BRICs and those who favor a broader basket that includes gold and silver. India, China and Brazil Become Major Players in the IMF.  This is also of importance because we forecast that the SDR is going to be a likely candidate to supplant the Dollar as the world's reserve currency, a move that will be resisted and delayed by the Anglo-American financiers.

I do not know of any plans to change the valuation basket of the DX US dollar index. It is obviously out of date as the breakdown on the chart below shows. In previous postings of the very long term Dollar Chart I have warned that the projections may not be realized because the index is heavily weighted to the developed nations. 82 percent of the valuation is attributed to the euro, pound, and yen.

Gold Daily Chart: Some Comments On Gold by John Hathaway

John Hathaway
October 28, 2010

The world’s monetary system is in the process of melting down. We have entered the endgame for the dollar as the dominant reserve currency, but most investors and policy makers are unaware of the implications.

The only questions are how long the denouement of the dollar reserve system will last, and how much more damage will be inflicted by new rounds of quantitative easing or more radical monetary measures to prop up the system.

Whether prolonged or sudden, the transition to a stable monetary system will become possible only when the shortcomings of the status quo become unbearable. Such a transition is, by definition, nonlinear. So central-bank soothsaying based on the extrapolation of historical data and the repetition of conventional wisdom offers no guidance on what lies ahead.

It’s amazing that there is no intelligent discourse among policy leaders on the subject of monetary rot and its implications for the future economic and political landscape. Until there is fundamental monetary reform on an international scale, most economic forecasts aren’t worth the paper on which they are written.

Telltale signs of future trouble aren’t hard to spot. Only a few months ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and a chorus of other high-ranking Fed officials were talking about exit strategies from the U.S. central bank’s bloated balance sheet and the financial system’s unprecedented excess liquidity. Now, those same officials are talking about pumping more money into the system to stimulate growth.

Risky Targets

And they’re not alone: Six months ago, the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, Olivier Blanchard, suggested that raising inflation targets to 4 percent from 2 percent wouldn’t be too risky.

This sort of talk must grate on the nerves of our trading partners, China, India, Russia and others, who have accumulated pyramids of non-yielding Treasury debt. No haven there. Return- free risk may be a better way to put it. And bickering among central bankers over currency manipulation and rising trade tensions doesn’t exactly reinforce one’s confidence in a scenario of sustained economic growth and a return to prosperity.

The prospects for an orderly unwinding of the extreme posture of global monetary policy are zero. Bernanke, Jean- Claude Trichet and Mervyn King, his counterparts in Europe and the U.K. respectively, are huddling en masse upon the most precarious perch in the history of monetary affairs. These alleged guardians of monetary stability, in their attempts to shore up the system, have simply created the incinerator for paper money. We are past the point of no return. Quantitative easing may well become a way of life.

No Freak Occurrence

The consensus investment view seems to be that the credit crisis of 2008 was a freak occurrence, unlikely to repeat. That is wishful thinking. Monetary policy has painted itself into a corner. Based on our present course, there will be more bubbles and more meltdowns.

Financial markets and institutions sense trouble, as reflected in the flight to supposedly safe assets such as Treasuries and corporate-debt instruments with paltry yields, as well as the reluctance to lend by commercial banks. We are stuck in an epic liquidity trap. The irony is, if global central banks succeed in creating inflation, the value of these safe assets will be destroyed. It is a slaughter waiting to happen.

In the pedantic mentality of central bankers, their playbook creates just the right amount of inflation. As inflation accelerates, consumers will spend to get rid of their dollars of diminishing value and spur the economy. Once consumers start spending, it will be time to raise interest rates because a solid foundation for prosperity will have been established, they say.

Slender Thread

But whatever the playbook promises, the capacity of financial markets to overshoot can’t be overestimated. The belief among policy makers and financial markets in the possibility of this sort of fine-tuning is preposterous, but it is the slender thread on which remaining investment and business confidence rests.

The breakdown of the monetary system will be chaotic. When inflation commences, it will be highly disruptive. The damage to fixed-income assets will seem instantaneous. Foreign-exchange markets will become dysfunctional. The economy will become even more fragile and unpredictable.

Gold is an imperfect, but comparatively reliable, market gauge for the extent of current and future monetary destruction. The recent acceleration in the dollar price of the metal to $1,381, a record high in nominal terms, coincided with talk of a new round of quantitative easing and highly visible discord among major nations on trade and currency-valuation issues.

Naysayers’ Bubble

Naysayers point to gold’s price and see a bubble, without understanding that the only acceleration that is taking place is in the rate of decline of paper currency. The Fed is organizing an attack on the dollar’s value, believing that this is the most expedient way to defuse deflationary market forces. The man in the street is unaware, a perfect setup. Inflation can only be successful when the public doesn’t see it coming.

The sudden torrent of commentary on gold isn’t the sign of a bubble. Anti-gold pundits provide a great service to those who grasp this historical moment: They facilitate the advantageous positioning of the one asset most likely to be left standing when the dust settles.

(John Hathaway is a managing director of Tocqueville Asset Management LP in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

h/t Terry Laundry for the Hathaway commentary and Phoebe for sending it my way

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

Today was what they call a 'buying panic' driven primarily by short covering in US denominated dollar assets, and gold and silver were significant beneficiaries.

One would expect some follow through and then a consolidation after such a big move higher. I was heavily hedging my own positions into the close.

Let's see what happens.

SP 500 and NDX December Futures Daily Chart

Quantitative easing yes, and the reflation trade of course.

But if you look you may notice that the rally today was a bit narrow, and driven in part by heavy buying in call options that eventually forced market makers into the equity market to buy stocks to hedge their positions. Financial and material companies were leading the pack.

Still, as you can see, do not jump into a bearish posture or you will be forced to make your losses good and feed the beast. This looks like a Ponzi scheme, but that does not mean it can cannot go on for some time.

Sprott Adds 6.5 Million Ounces of Silver to Its Trust at Approximately 25.82 Per Ounce

It is my understanding that the Sprott Trust 'books' the silver when it makes the deal to acquire it, but the actual silver will not be obtained and delivered to their vaults for some weeks as the market gathers the bullion together and ships it to them.

This was a very large purchase, and it will be interesting to see if we can determine where it is coming from as inventories draw down. Many analysts watch the reports from the Comex each day for example, and how the various levels of supply fluctuate. Then again, in this paper driven world of fractional reserve inventories at the LBMA and the unallocated accounts of certain holdings it may not show up at all, at least for now. The paper game is pervasive.

Our estimate based on the available data is that they purchased 6.5 million ounces of silver at an average price of 25.82 US dollars per ounce. This is a 1.2% premium over today's spot price of 25.51, and a much larger premium over yesterday's paper prices that went as low as 24.10 intraday.

It is interesting that even on very large purchases it appears there is a premium to be paid to acquire actual unemcumbered bullion versus fractional reserve paper claims. Handling charges? lol.

Some might consider the price that Sprott paid to be a 'leading indicator' of where silver will be going. I think when the paper Ponzi scheme actually collapses silver will be much higher than that. After all, "he who sells what isn't his'n must buy it back or go to prison." Unless, that is, they are running the game. Then they just pay a fine and admit no guilt.

By the way, I have heard that it was J Aron (Goldman) leading the bear raid on gold with a 'monster short' in the futures pits yesterday. I wonder who they were acting for and whose money they lost? The CFTC could always pull the tickets and inquire, but it might very well be one of their colleagues down the street. As you may have heard, it is said that Goldman itself is accumulating bullion. I have heard of this for quite some time, and you may recall that I said when the time is right a big player like the squid will slither out of their lair and strangle the metals shorts,  and perhaps ruthlessly so.

As an aside, I get a few 'sour grapes' emails almost every day out of the many hundreds I receive. I try to read and respond to each one, with a few exceptions for the spam filter. Some think I am too liberal, some think I am too conservative. Some think I am even guilty of the crime of being French! I am not but would gladly claim that prize. If you can offer me dual citizenship please do. lol. Some believe I speak about spiritual matters too much, or mention personal matters even obliquely, or don't invite them to my restaurant for 'free meals when they are in town.' Sometimes the self-centered and self-righteous indignation is remarkably funny. How dare anyone exist who does not do so for their personal and immediate convenience! Well, we see these types on the highway almost every day, so I imagine they must be on the internet as well.

But by far the greatest complaint I am getting is that I "write about gold and silver too much."

I write about the things that I love and that interest me: good food, good people, beautiful ideas and things, the vagaries of human nature, the Spirit.

I can think of no more interesting or important phenomenon than the decline and replacement of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. And if you are in any way influenced or affected by the world of money, believe me when I say that it is of importance to you as well. And there is no more certain sign right now of what is happening than the bull market in gold and silver, and certain other commodities.

It is time to get your affairs in order. There are times ahead that will try men's souls.

Gold Daily Chart and the Fed's Monetization Plan

Volatile day in the metals with bear raids abounding from the New York open.

Gold and silver would not be denied.

Here is a nice summary of what the Fed announced from Everbank World Markets.

"The Federal Open Market Committee announced they would be purchasing $600 billion of treasury securities over a time period ending in June of 2011. These security purchases will be concentrated in the 3 to 7 year area with an average duration of 5-7 years. The official statement said the purpose of these purchases was to promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate.

The FOMC also directed the NY Fed to continue to reinvest principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities into longer-term Treasury securities. Based on current estimates, the NY Fed expects to reinvest another $250 to $300 billion over the same period. This brings the total of the stimulus package to just under $1 trillion dollars."

SP 500 December Futures and US Long Bond Daily Charts

Benny and the Fed delivered a 600 Billion dollar in new monetization program today, not including rollover purchasing which should take the total purchasing for 2011 a bit closer to a trillion.

The program will be for 8 months, rather than the expected 6, and will not include MBS or the 30 year Bond, which was particularly hard on Big Daddy today which you can see from the second chart below of the 30 year bond.

As a side note, coming into today's FOMC meeting, Bloomberg says that Goldman Sachs was advising traders to 'buy the long end of the curve.' Surprise, surprise, surprise. LOL.

New COMEX Related Silver Manipulation Lawsuit Includes Charges of 'Racketeering'

Self-regulation and efficient markets hypothesis. Feh!

It will be interesting to see if this makes it into the discovery process and if any government officials will assist in the investigation process. This looks like a job for hairy knuckled prosecutors armed with subpoenas and wiretaps.

The mainstream media will most likely ignore this and the usual suspects from the demimonde of the financial media will dismiss it as nonsense.

One has to wonder if this is what CFTC commissioner Bart Chilton was alluding to in his recent statement.

NEW YORK, Nov. 3, 2010 /PRNewswire/ -- JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and HSBC Securities Inc. (NYSE: HBC) face charges of manipulating the market for silver futures and options in violation of federal commodities and racketeering laws, according to a new lawsuit filed Tuesday in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York

The suit – which alleges violation of the Commmodity Exchange Act and the Racketeering Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act – alleges that the two banks colluded to manipulate thhe market for silver futures starting in the first half of 2008 by amassing huge short positions in silver futures contracts they had no intent to fill, but did so to force silver prices down to their benefit.

The suit was filed on behalf of Carl Loeb, an independent investor in silver futures and options, by Seattle-based Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro LLP, a class-action and complex litigation firm. "The practice of naked short selling has long been a serious issue on Wall Street," said Steve Berman, co-counsel and managing partner at Hagens Berman. "What we know about the scope and intent of JP Morgan and HSBC's actions in this short-selling scheme dwarfs any other similar attempt to manipulate a commodities market."

According to the complaint, JP Morgan amassed a sizeable short position in silver futures and options in part through its March 2008 acquisition of investment bank Bear Stearns. By August 2008, JP Morgan and London-based HSBC controlled more than 85 percent of the commercial net short position in silver futures contracts.

The suit alleges that, starting in early 2008, the two banks began manipulating the silver futures market by accumulating unusually large "short" positions and then secretly coordinating enormous sales of silver futures contracts on the Commodity Exchange, which is known as "COMEX" and is part of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

According to the lawsuit, JP Morgan and HSBC used a variety of methods to coordinate their manipulation of the market for silver futures contracts, signaling when to flood the COMEX market with short positions, which caused the price of silver futures and options contracts to crash.

The suit describes two "crash" events that were set in motion by JP Morgan and HSBC, one in March 2008, and the other in February 2010, after defendants had amassed large short positions. In the wake of both events, the suit alleges, COMEX silver futures prices collapsed.

"We believe that JP Morgan and HSBC's scheme was carefully conceived and coordinated to maximize their profits at the expense of innocent investors who believed that they were trading in a market free from manipulation," Berman said.

The complaint also contains allegations that in September 2008, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission launched an investigation that would eventually consider allegations made by a London-based independent metals trader named Andrew Maguire that the silver futures market was being manipulated.

The complaint alleges that Maguire disclosed to the CFTC on Feb. 3, 2010 that he received a signal from the two banks of their intent to drive down the prices of silver futures two days later, on Feb. 5, 2010. Maguire's information was correct and the price of silver dropped dramatically between Feb. 3, 2010 and Feb. 5, 2010.

In addition, the lawsuit states that both JP Morgan and HSBC still maintain highly concentrated holdings in short positions in silver futures and options, giving both banks the ability to continue manipulating the price of silver.

Plaintiffs' attorneys have asked the court to certify the case as a class action and enjoin JP Morgan and HSBC from continuing their alleged conspiracy and manipulation of the silver futures and options contracts market.

Attorneys also ask the court to award damages and attorneys' fees to the class.

Just remember that Blythe said Don't Panic. She's got your backs. Or is busy cutting a deal. You will have to decide which is more likely.

I also hear that high flyer Steve Black, who was promoted up at the beginning of the year, will be leaving JP Morgan.

Net Asset Value of Precious Metals Trusts and Funds: Sprott Silver Trust Cash Position

With the addition of 7.5 million units, presumably from the allotments to the underwriters, the cash position of the Sprott Physical Silver Trust has risen to over 180 million US dollars according to their data and our calculations.

According to the terms of this trust, the monies must be applied to the purchase of silver bullion. Sprott may have already arranged for the delivery and price of the bullion, but has not yet booked it. Or perhaps they must still secure supply.

Gold and silver received some fairly stiff and obvious bear raids this morning, at least by recent standards, no doubt in anticipation of the FOMC announcement of Quantitative Easing II this afternoon. Market manipulation will continue until public confidence is restored. lol.

Today I am still running light positions in a well balanced pair of long bullion and short stocks, particularly in the financial sector. I expect I might make some changes around 2:45 New York time this afternoon.