Awful Jobs Report? Send in the clowns.
07 January 2011
Progressive Reformer: Theodore Roosevelt
Wonderfully ignorant of their history, only a few might even remember that he is one of the four president's depicted on their nation's Mt. Rushmore, much less why he was considered among Washington, Lincoln, and Jefferson.
He was a complex man of seeming contradictions, who was as comfortable in New York salons as he was on the back of a horse. As he was a man he had his foibles and shortcomings, which makes him fair game for his critics. His speech at the Sorbonne on The Man In the Arena addressed this.
Here is a brief description of his domestic political agenda from the PBS show American Experience.
The American Experience is a wonderful series of documentaries, and I highly recommend them in general. The Great Crash of 1929 is one of the better depictions of that era that I have seen in a short video documentary.
I wonder if this ignorance of history is a cause or an effect. Does ignorance facilitate gullibility and exploitation, or does it not also make it more bearable for lack of comparison? Perhaps it is something of both. One can not otherwise explain America's fascination with and fatal attraction to second rate actors, narcissistic lotharios, idiot sons, wardheelers, and reality show divas. Such is the state of an empire in decline. A still vibrant nation can survive its Warren Hardings and Andrew Johnsons, and perhaps even an unfortunate run of them. One can only wait and see what will happen next, watchful and prayerful and hopefully prepared.
"Roosevelt appeared an unlikely candidate for a reform president. Born into a wealthy family, he enjoyed a youth beyond the reach of most Americans, touring Europe and the Middle East, studying with private tutors, and coming of age in a New York mansion. A Harvard man, he socialized with America's upper crust. In practice, however, TR looked after the interests of working class Americans against rapacious corporate trusts, defying -- and some would say betraying -- the very society from which he had sprung.
When TR entered the White House in 1901, he took control of a federal government that often aligned itself with big business. Roosevelt restrained his progressive leanings for a short time, wisely avoiding a shakeup on Wall Street, where jittery investors saw him at best as a loose cannon and at worst as a dangerous demagogue.
In early 1902, however, TR took the offensive against powerful corporate trusts. He convinced Congress to create a Bureau of Corporations to regulate big business, then shocked the nation by bringing an anti-trust suit against J. P. Morgan's Northern Securities Corporation. Morgan condemned the president, not just for what he had done, but for the ungentlemanly way in which he had done it -- publicly and without warning. A new paradigm had been established in Washington, and Roosevelt would go on to file suit against more than 40 major corporations during his presidency.
If Roosevelt's trust-busting surprised big business, it was certainly consistent with the major influences on his life. Theodore Roosevelt grew up worshipping a father who preached the moral duty of helping the poor, and he worked to be like his father in every way he could. As a young man, TR experienced life as a rancher in North Dakota's Badlands, where all the money in the world could not make a cow easier to rope or the summer sun less blazing, and years of honest work from sunup to sundown might still leave a person poor.
He learned to value working class people, and he never forgot them. From the time he took office in 1901 to the time he left it in 1909, the cowboy president did much to help working Americans. He passed laws to ensure the safety of food and drugs sold in the American marketplace. He placed millions of acres of land under federal protection, preserving America's natural resources. He regulated interstate commerce and helped laborers to get a fair shake at the negotiating table.
Plutocrats deplored Roosevelt. Yet TR adamantly defended the right of big business to exist. Trying to destroy the trusts, Roosevelt wrote in his Autobiography, "was a hopeless effort... those who went into it, although they regarded themselves as radical progressives, really represented a sincere form of rural Toryism." To TR, Progressivism meant a square deal for the American people and American business, a society where businesses profited by fair competition -- but not at the expense of the average American.
In fact, Roosevelt's relationship with labor was a tenuous one; he probably feared nothing more than he feared labor's potential for violence. "We can no more and no less afford to condone evil in the man of capital than evil in the man of no capital," Roosevelt wrote. One of his greatest frustrations was the inability of capitalists to see that their greed might well foment a bloody American revolution. Labor regularly condemned him, insisting that his brand of reform did not go far enough.
After leaving the presidency, Roosevelt continued to push for domestic reform, most notably during his Progressive party campaign for the presidency in 1912. He ran on a "New Nationalism" platform, calling for women's suffrage, an end to child labor, pensions for the elderly, unemployment insurance, and increased regulation of the trusts. While Theodore Roosevelt failed in this final presidential bid, others picked up his torch, and many of the ideas he championed would later come to fruition."
Note: Le patron is a member of long-standing in the Theodore Roosevelt Association.
06 January 2011
SP 500 and NDX March Futures Daily Charts
See SP 500 Intraday Chart: Credibility Gaps Abounding for today's stock chart commentary.
As a reminder, tomorrow is the US Non-Farm Payrolls report.
SP 500 March Futures Intraday at Noon: Credibility Gaps Abounding
Here is an additional interpretation of the big inverse H&S bottom from July 2010 showing a target around 1280 that appears to have been met.
I cannot stress enough how manipulated these markets are, so use caution if you choose to play on their tables.
I was watching some individual stocks on Level II quote feeds and they were marching the prices up and down using 100 share bid/ask transactions. There was a noticeable lack serious buying at most times.
The intraday price manipulation in these markets, and particularly in silver, is becoming so blatantly obvious as to be getting almost silly. It reminds me of our little girl showing me one of her 'card tricks' when she offers me the deck with one card sticking way out and says 'pick one,' and then moves the deck around furiously if I try to pick one of the others.
I think there is a nice setup for a 'flash crash' developing with perhaps some trigger event this time that will be used as a justification for that and perhaps other things.
These fellows on Wall Street and in Washington have gotten through most of their lives by using special privilege, private influence, and simply cheating. By now dishonesty and deception is like a familiar friend that they turn to whenever the going gets tough, so how can we be surprised?
As a reminder, The Quiet Coup - Simon Johnson
“For every credibility gap there is a gullibility fill.” Richard Clopton
05 January 2011
Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts
"Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men’s protection and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values. Gold was an objective value, an equivalent of wealth produced. Paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces, marked: "Account Overdrawn."
Ayn Rand
Gold Over $2,000 and Silver Over $50 in 2011 - John Embry (KWN)
I used today as an opportunity to buy a little more broadly in gold and silver near the lows as bullion approached some short term oversold levels below 1370 and 29.00 respectively. These were plays in bullion primarily with little or no leverage, with some paired trades for hedging.
SP 500 and NDX March Futures Daily Charts: Drôle de Guerre Against Fraud
"The more gross the fraud the more glibly will it go down, and the more greedily be swallowed, since folly will always find faith where impostors will find imprudence."
Charles Caleb Colton
I had the opportunity to speak with a pit trader the other day, and he described the mood amongst traders as cautious. They see the stock market rising and cannot get in front of it, as the buying is too well backed. But the volumes are so thin and the action so phony that they cannot get comfortable on the long side either, so are buying insurance against a correction even while riding the rally higher.
This is a market setup for a flash crash.
04 January 2011
Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts
Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday.
"On a side bar. remember a couple of years ago, when I went on CNBC to talk to them about things that were happening in the markets in the afterhours that didn't make sense, and looked like an "outside force" was moving them? And they laughed at me, and told me to take my theory to Hollywood, and see if they would make a movie of it! And then a month or so later, a guy came out and proved my theory? Well. I have to believe that the rise of Gold and Silver, the rise of Treasury yields, and Oil, all being reversed on a dime, smells like PPT. it walks like PPT. and it talks like PPT." Chuck Butler, Everbank World Markets
Fool the people? Yes we can. For a little while, anyway.
"Our government... teaches the whole people by its example. If the government becomes the lawbreaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy." Supreme Court Justice Louis D. Brandeis
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