28 March 2013

Matières à Réflexion for Thursday, 28 March 2013


"In the century in which we live, the Democratic Party has received the support of the electorate only when the party, with absolute clarity, has been the champion of progressive and liberal policies and principles of government. The party has failed consistently when through political trading and chicanery it has fallen into the control of those interests, personal and financial, which think in terms of dollars instead of in terms of human values."

Franklin D. Roosevelt, 18 July 1940

Links For Today

Calm Gives Way to Tension As Cyprus Banks Reopen - NYT

Oligarchy Exists Inside Our Democracy - Walker

Speaking of Inequality - AngryBear

Why Won't Cyprus Obey Krugman? - EconoSpeak

Earthquake Tied to Disposal of Oil Extraction (Fracking) Wastewater

Is the ECB Misleading Us Over Who Is To Blame for the Eurozone Crisis? - Guardian




"Gentlemen! I too have been a close observer of the doings of the Bank of the United States. I have had men watching you for a long time, and am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country.

When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank...You are a den of vipers and thieves. I have determined to rout you out, and by the Eternal, (bringing his fist down on the table) I will rout you out."

Andrew Jackson, Andrew Jackson and the Bank of the United States (1928) by Stan V. Henkels

27 March 2013

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Currency Wars


I have concluded that it is almost impossible to understand what is happening in the precious metal markets without understanding that the world is in a currency war,  And this includes how the currency war is being conducted, and why.

The US dollar reserve currency arrangement to support world trade was created in the waning days of World War II, with the demise of the gold standard and the ascendancy of the Pax Americana.  It is called the Bretton Woods System.  It evolved quite a bit since then, especially when Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 and declared the US dollar a purely fiat currency.  Since then the world has gotten by on what some have called Bretton Woods II.

After sixty years, it is fairly clear that the dollar trading regime has had a good run, but has now outlasted its effective life span. The nail in the coffin is the economic instability in the US, and the need for the Federal Reserve to go to ZIRP and print buckets of money to support their domestic policy needs.

While this makes sense for the US, it does not make sense for the rest of the world. This is similar to the reason why the Eurozone is failing. The ECB conducts monetary policy to suit the needs of a few core countries, and the periphery suffers. And that monetary policy is covering up the rot at the core I might add.

The situation is similar with the dollar and world trade. The Anglo-American Banking cartel grew up around the US dollar reign, and is still very powerful, being supported by most of the systemically important international banks.

But all things come to an end, and the world is looking for a better solution to the world as it is now, not how it was sixty years ago. But change comes slowly and with difficulty.

I will be very surprised if gold and silver do not play a role in what is to come.

I did remark on this and also on bitcoin intraday. You can read it here.

Great changes are occurring, that cut across political and economic lines.  And these are manifesting as a 'currency war' that is much broader than a mere race to devalue and manipulate national currencies to support industrial trade policies.  Always keep that in mind.

Have a pleasant evening.




SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Buying the Dip Into End of Quarter


Stocks sold off early on the realization that the debt and monetary crisis in Europe is hardly averted.

The austerity being enforced in Europe and the UK is very likely to drive those areas into an economic Depression.

But while Bernanke supplies the Banks with a fresh round of $85 billion per month, hope floats.

It is almost the end of the first quarter and the paint will be applied to the tape. I am sure they will take a few more serious runs at a new all time high on the SP 500. And our intermediate chart objective lies tantalizingly overhead.

And hard as it may be to believe, Alcoa will kick off a new earnings season in just a few weeks.

Market Shadows Newsletter: A Little Strategy, A Little Action






Currency Wars: Global Sustainable Currency Summit - Sept 26-28, Xi'an China: Bitcoin


The world is looking for a replacement for the outdated US dollar global reserve currency arrangement.

 The reasons for this are fairly obvious. How can the Fed independently conduct monetary policy to support domestic US needs for a global currency?

The Anglo-American banking cartel will fight this development at every turn, because control of the currency is power.

I trust that a basket of currencies anchored with gold and silver will be on the table.  The discussion of such an arrangement was circumvented by the US and UK.

The BRICs are not happy with the status quo.  As you may recall, they have recently discussed forming their own version of the World Bank.

A global fiat currency for the world, without fiscal and political union, is the euro experience writ large.

Currencies have a life cycle, and often a regional life and custom.   No money in the world has lasted for more than ten generation and achieved almost universal acceptance other than gold and silver.  It seems to be in their very nature, and in the nature of money.


About Bitcoin

As an aside, people ask me now and then to comment on Bitcoin.    I did look into it quite intensively over the Christmas holiday and was aware of it before then. 

The good news for Bitcoin is that is does have 'a flywheel' in the fairly transparent algorithm that expands the money supply in a reasonable predictive manner.  And from a technology standpoint it does have a coolness factor.

The Achilles heel is its inherent instability because of the manner in which it is sustained and exchanged.  The exchanges are a serious weakness because they are unregulated, opaque, and privately owned.   They rely heavily on the efficient markets hypothesis and on a few other articles of faith.

Liquidity and stability is the name of the game for money:  use and store of value.

It is almost predictable that the Bitcoin currency will have speculative booms and busts, because it has the nature of a Ponzi scheme with the greatest gains going to early adopters and promoters.

It does have its good points, but I am afraid I would defer on it unless a number of sovereigns were to adopt it and guarantee liquidity and exchangeability. Starting a new currency is not easily done. It must be based on something widely accepted and easily exchanged for a broad range of goods and services with a easily recognized unit of value.

But for now the early adopters and adherents do not wish to hear this, very much in the manner of an early stage Ponzi scheme.  You'll miss out, better get aboard, you're losing money!

Money is a funny thing.  So few people understand it.  It often takes on the nature of a belief system, a religion.  I recall the very heated and passionate inflation/deflation debates of not so long ago.

Welcome to the fog of currency war.

On the behalf of the organising committee, we cordially invite you to join the Global Sustainable Currency Summit (GSCS-2013), held during September 26-28, 2013 at the International Convention Center in Xi’an, China.

Due to the imbalances in global trade, countries and regions adopted different currency policies to develop and defend their economies, causing a serious international currency crisis - even currency wars and treasury collapses.

These circumstances have led us to promote the establishment of an international mechanism to create a global currency by organizing the GSCS-2013 summit with leading economists and policy makers as international platform for the analyses of the failures of actual and past currency systems, discussion and resolution of the international currency crisis and for the determination of future needs of all nations and the world trade by defining a global solution with a Global Currency G, based on the Global Money Charter for Sustainable Development, as announced at the Rio+20 Summit.

GSCS-2013 aims to discuss and resolve the international currency crisis/currency wars and establish an international mechanism to create a global currency to create an even level playing field for everyone.

It will bring together economists, university professors, Nobel Price laureates, industry leaders, legislators and senior officers from governments, the United Nations, Regional Economic Zones, and financial institutions. Attendees will get an opportunity to meet world-class economists and bankers benefiting from their analysis and solution presentations, and also learn about the major trends of the currency markets.

We would like to invite you to be part of GSCS-2013 and actively join this historical event in the field of global currency policy. You will experience unforgettable encounters and have a wonderful travel to the cradle of the first coins and the origin of the Silk Road in China.
Read the details here.