Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Der Untergang - The Madness Serves None But Itself

 

“Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing themselves.”

Leo Tolstoy 

 

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." 

Rudiger Dornbusch 

 

"Reasoning is no use; facts that contradict personal prejudices can simply be disbelieved — indeed, the fool can counter by criticizing them, and if they are undeniable, they can be just pushed aside as trivial exceptions.  We shall never again try to convince a fool by reason, for it is both useless and dangerous." 

 Dietrich Bonhoeffer

 

"Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."

Charles Mackay

 

Stock futures did another overnight pop, and afternoon flop.

Gold and silver rose along their support lines, and the Dollar continued lower.

 Netflix slipped its growth estimates after the close.

The stimulus, the election, and vaccine questions are three significant exogenous economic factors. 

John Oliver's discussion of the World Health Organization from his Sunday night show is interesting.

We are in the midst of the hysteria I had forecast.    QAnon is the latest face of it.

It seems almost ordinary, because it came on so slowly, and over such a relatively long period of time.

Its resolution may come more quickly, and leave many wondering what happened, and what they were thinking.

Most will move on, but some will stubbornly seek justification in stubborn denial.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Carnival of Heels and Souls

"One can protest against evil; it can be unmasked and, if need be, prevented by force.  Evil always carries the seeds of its own destruction, as it makes people, at the least, uncomfortable.

Against folly we have no defense.  Neither protests nor force can touch it; reasoning is no use; facts that contradict personal prejudices can simply be disbelieved — indeed, the fool can counter by criticizing them, and if they are undeniable, they can be just pushed aside as trivial exceptions. 

So the fool, as distinct from the scoundrel, is completely self-satisfied; in fact, he can easily become dangerous, as it does not take much to make him aggressive.  A fool must therefore be treated more cautiously than a scoundrel; we shall never again try to convince a fool by reason, for it is both useless and dangerous." 

Dietrich Bonhoeffer 

 

"That the rate of interest will be lower when commerce languishes and when there is little demand for money, than when the energies of commerce are in full play and there is an active demand for money, is indisputable; but it is equally beyond doubt, that every speculative mania which has run its course of folly and disaster in this country has derived its original impulse from cheap money." 

The Economist, 1858

 

"He will perish for lack of self-restraint; and will be lost because of an abundance of foolishness."

Proverbs 5:23

 

The stock futures did a major pop and flop, rallying in the overnight, and cracking down lower during the day trade.

The cause was a mix of disappointment over the lack of stimulus and fiscal response, and also the cessation of shenanigans from Friday's option expiration.

The Dollar continued on a bit lower.

The VIX was higher with the perception of increased risk, aka uncertainty.

Gold and silver were both sharply higher during the day, but gave up much of their gains in the afternoon.

No matter how loud and how stubbornly foolish one may be, in the end, life is a school of probability. 

Have a pleasant evening.

 

Harvest Moon

 

When we were strangers 
I watched you from afar
When we were lovers 
I loved you with all my heart
But now it's gettin' late
And the moon is climbin' high
I want to celebrate
See it shinin' in your eye
Because I'm still in love with you
I want to see you dance again
Because I'm still in love with you
On this harvest moon.

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Storm Warnings

"It begins with a highly complex financial system, whose very complexity makes it difficult for anyone to know what might be going wrong; by definition, the multiple parts of the financial system are linked, which means that trouble in one institution, city, or region can travel easily and quickly to others.

Buoyant growth in the economy makes the financials system more fragile, in part due to the demand for capital and in part due to the tendency of some institutions to take on more risk than is prudent.   Leaders in government and the financials sector implement policies that advertently or inadvertently increase the exposure to risk of crisis. 

An economic shock hits the financials system.  The mood of the market swings from optimism to pessimism, create a self-reinforcing downward spiral.  Collective action by leaders can arrest the spiral, though the speed and effectiveness which they act ultimately determines the length and severity of the crisis." 

Robert Bruner and Sean Carr, The Panic of 1907

 

Stocks did a mild pop 'n flop, or a wash and rinse as you may prefer, in honor of the stock market index options expiration.

Gold, silver, and The Dollar were lower.

The VIX was slightly elevated.

Outside of algo-driven trading shenanigans, I am not confident that The Street has a better idea of what's going on, or coming over the horizon, than most others who are at least mildly informed.

Nonetheless, something of note is coming, and it looms closer by the day.

Have a pleasant weekend.