27 February 2015

Gold Daily And Silver Weekly Charts - March Silver Comes In like a Lion

Today was the usual dull day of market focused on their own navels, surrounded by the flies of the HFT bots.

Silver was the bigger story with the first report from the March contract, with an impressive claim of over six million ounces of silver being claimed on the Comex.

The Comex silver sees plenty of warehouse action, since CNT is using it as a delivery vehicle into their contracts with the US mint.

Otherwise the Comex has all the appearances of a bucket shop for gold.
The economic calendar for next week is below, and as you can see, we have another Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday.  Since they have revised the jobs numbers back to whenever already, it will be interesting to see what kind of a number they can scrape up for February. 
Stormy weather.

Gold is moving from West to East.

If you don't agree, or don't understand this, that's ok.

You will.
Live long and prosper.

Have a pleasant weekend.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Toppy


Stocks were floundering around most of the day on a weak GDP revision this morning, and a shockingly low Chicago PMI which *could* be an effect, at least in part, of the weather.

Stocks are looking a bit lofty here, and volumes are thin.

But here comes March, and another month in which the wolves can thin the saving herd, as thin as they may have become.

The cash Nasdaq continues to creep higher towards the magic 5,000 handle.

The last time we saw that was in March, 2000.  And you remember how things went from there.

Have a pleasant weekend.


26 February 2015

Gold Daily And Silver Weekly Charts - Where Your Treasure Is, There Your Heart Will Be

The economic news was a mixed bag this morning, but given that the volumes were light, the technical trade prevailed.

Forget Greece, forget the Ukraine, and forget the joblessness and misery of many.

Forget short circuited reform, and misplaced policies, failed regulation, and rigged markets.

The Big Tickle today was Nasdaq 5000.  This is the imperative of bubble-nomics.
The Fed is not independent.  It tolerates the Congress, but it is owned by the Banks.  And the point of the spear is the NY Fed which is wholly a child of Wall Street.
The Dow Industrials and the SP 500 were negative most of the day and went out in the red, but the Nasdaq was clicking away bright green, pushing hard uphill for the Nasdaq 5000 headline, the better to lure you in and eat you with, my dears.

Gold and silver did the usual overnight rally with a smackdown by London and New York.

There are quite a few odd things going on. I don't know if you get the sense of it, but things just don't add up.

The average person who just scans the headines each day might not catch it, but do you follow the actual facts of things closely enough to get the feeling that not all is right, that not everything you are being told is 'square' and on the level?

I certainly do, but maybe that's just me, and I could be wrong.  But things seem to be backwards.

GDP revision tomorrow.

Have a pleasant evening.


SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Pushing For Nasdaq 5000 Or Bust

The Dow Industrial and the SP 500 were negative for the better part of the day, and decidedly so at times.

But the NDX and the cash Nasdaq were positive. Why was this?

The volumes on the Street are light, and the wiseguys are pushing tech hard to try and get that headline 5000 number on the cash NASDAQ.

And that's the name of that tune.
I remember talking to the brokers after the go-go 1960's gave way to the grinding bear market bust of the mid 1970s.   When will the Dow Industrials crack 1,000 again?  The last time it had been around 1962.  When will the 'small investor' return to the market?
This might be the kinds of conversations we will be having in the 2020's about Nasdaq 5000.  Unless we just inflate it all away.

Retailers earnings after the bell tonight.
The story of Greece Agnoistes is far from over.  There are twists and turns ahead in that epic tale, and the unfolding story of modern Europe.
And the clash of civilizations.
GDP revision tomorrow.

Have a pleasant evening.


Wall Street's Big Push For Nas 5000 - What Will the NY Fed Do Next?

The Credibility Trap Is at the Heart of the Failure to Reform

Unfortunately it appears that the political process is bogged down in fighting an ideological trench warfare in which both sides are taking top down positions about what is right and wrong, without the ability to address the actual conditions that plague their nation in the sixth year of The Recovery.

It reminds one of an old beer marketing campaign, in which one cadre of devotees yells 'Less filling' and the other shouts back, 'Tastes great!'
Why is this? What causes such willing blindness to what is actually happening?

The credibility trap explains much of it.

In this corrupt political process, the deeply complicit politicians say and do what they are being paid to think, say, and do by a narrow band of powerful constituents amongst the competing moneyed interests.
They seem less like political parties than competing crime families.  And they are deeply entrenched in exactly what has gone wrong.   So deeply, with such strong ties to past mistakes, influence peddling, and corrupt practices, that they can no longer even speak freely and frankly about it.
The SEC is 'probing why companies mistreat whistleblowers.'   Hah!  And where do you think that companies might have gotten the idea that cracking down on whistleblowers was the thing to do?
They talked about change and hope, but they never let up on deception and fear.
Nobody's right, if everybody's wrong..

Reforming the Fed: Who’s Right; Who’s Wrong?
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens
February 26, 2015

...Republicans are locked in some kind of mind warp where the remedy for every problem is to deregulate. Despite six years of books, academic studies, investigative findings, and a 600-page report from the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission proving that deregulation was responsible for the financial crash of 2008 – the greatest financial implosion since the Great Depression – Republicans refuse to let facts get in the way of pushing for more deregulation.

Democrats on the other hand, despite overwhelming proof that the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act has actually allowed Wall Street to grow systemically more dangerous and more corrupt since its passage, is irrationally wedded to this legislation.

No amount of evidence will change the Democrats’ position on Dodd-Frank. JPMorgan gambling with hundreds of billions of bank depositors’ money in the London Whale fiasco where $6.2 billion got flushed down the toilet will not change their mind. Cartel activity among the big banks in the interest rate market, precious metals market, foreign currency market will not change their mind. Bank chat rooms called “The Bandits Club,” “The Mafia” and “The Cartel,” where brazen market rigging is alleged to have occurred will not change their mind. Endless criminal investigations and multi-billion dollar settlements will not change their mind. Scandal after scandal destroying public trust in Wall Street and its regulators will not change their mind...

Read the entire article here.

25 February 2015

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Sideways

Gold and silver took a sluggish drift higher that was challenged several times without much enthusiasm after the move higher in the overnight, with London and then New York weighing in to the downside, as they are often wont to do.

There was a little more 'delivery' action in gold as shown in the report below, but as the warehouses reflect, the bullion is mostly just moved around the plate.

What can one say about an exchange that is so heavy and volatile on wagering, but so lacking in actual exchange of real products?

Bucket shop.

The real world action is that gold, and to a lesser extent silver, are moving from West to East.

I watched Janet Yellen's testimony to the House today, and it was painful. Deer in headlights all the way. At least the Senators were a little more polite, but Janet Yellen,  whatever quality her economic credentials may be, is not a suitable political foil for the verbally acute, mentally and morally light, denizens on the Hill.

The exchange she had with Elizabeth Warren yesterday can be seen here. It was clearly not Janet's 'A game.'  And Liz Warren was not being particularly tough.  She was throwing relative cotton balls with some well thought precision, but was nevertheless knocking Chairperson Yellen for a loop. I think Warren was genuinely surprised at how off kilter Yellen became.
I was imagining how the great prevaricator, Chairman Greenspan, would have parried all those questions, turned them on their ears, and rope-a-doped his way through the entire testimony uintil the Congressmen were spinning like tops.  Yellen is clearly not in his obfuscatory league.
One thing I will give to the careless few and their marketing crews, they are excellent in role casting and selecting their players.   Obama was a great choice as the maverick 'change agent.' 

And now we have the hapless but lovable grandmotherly type, just as cute as a button, who valiantly battles on behalf of the Western Bank syndicates, the moneyed interests, and one of the most corrosive forces in Western democracy, the Federal Reserve.  The World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) could not pick and preen their heroes and villains any better.  And the action is just about as scripted, and designed to distract from the reality.

Have a pleasant evening.


SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - The Technical Fundamentals

This market feels heavier than it looks.

It is hard to judge 'sentiment' because the market is being almost totally dominated by a few institutions, a handful of very large trading desks, and a swirling crowd of HFT hit and run predators.

So given this concentration of power, the market can move in just about any direction that external events, or the lack thereof, may permit.

The 'fundamentals' are not in play, at least for now.  And so the markets may continue to diverge from the real economy, until they cannot.  And then the reckoning comes.

The Fed is absolutely NOT blameless in this exercise, as they were not blameless in the tech and housing crises past.  They publicly denied there was a stock or housing bubble, while discussing them in private. 

They just let their bubbles run their course without even taking the minimal actions which they possessed then as a regulator, which are much greater now.

Have a pleasant evening.


US Crude Oil Supply Landscape In Four Charts

"Total U.S. liquid fuels consumption rose by an estimated 60,000 bbl/d (0.3%) in 2014. Motor gasoline consumption increased by 80,000 bbl/d (0.8%) reflecting an increase in highway travel that was partially offset by fleetwide increases in fuel efficiency...

In 2015, total liquid fuels consumption is forecast to grow by 290,000 bbl/d (1.5%). Lower pump prices contribute to an 80,000-bbl/d increase (0.9%) in motor gasoline consumption."

EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook, 10 February 2015

The charts below are from today's This Week in Petroleum Report from the US EIA.

24 February 2015

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - There For All To See

“He did not care for the lying at first. He hated it. Then later he had come to like it. It was part of being an insider, but it was a very corrupting business.”
Ernest Hemingway, For Whom the Bell Tolls

"Und der Haifisch, der hat Zähne
und die trägt er im Gesicht
und Macheath, der hat ein Messer
doch das Messer sieht man nicht."

Berthold Brecht, Die Moritat von Mackie Messer

It was a remarkably quite day for the precious metals, as the option expiration for the inactive month of March contract went by quietly enough.
Madame Yellen, American Viceroy of Wall Street's careless few, paid a visit to the Senate, where the august personages threw posies and puffballs for the most part, with a little side muttering for the benefit of groundling in the pit. 
And between inanities and well trod but unremarked policy errors she reminded us that the Fed can consider raising interest rates at any meeting, and if they remove the word 'patient' from their pronouncement, it does not mean that they are losing theirs.  The patience which they have shown to their serially recidivist patrons at the Banks, for example, is legendary.
Speaking of recidivism, JP Morgan, which is currently on a mockery of 'two years probation' for a crime spree almost too long to comprehensively recount here, is once again under investigation with ten of its fellow Banks for rigging the London Precious Metals market.  Unashamed of course, it appears that the House of Morgan will now start charging for the privilege of given them your money. 
That's all rich, in its own way.  The mighty US regulators cast their eyes at the transgressions in London, which is of course their right since the plottings were apparently undertaken in the Banks US offices, while they turn their regal noses aside from the greasy, noisome bucket shop that is just a light breeze away in lower Manhattan.
The Greek government apparently accepted a document as it was handed to them by the Die Neue Reichskanzlei, according to the usual non-mainstream media suspects.  I suspect that the plot here might have a few more twists and turns ahead, and some additional complexities.
Let's see if gold and silver, which has been acting surprising well all things considered, can find some footing after Madame Yellen meets with the surlier House tomorrow.
This is the 6500th post on this blog.
Have a pleasant evening.


SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - NASDAQ Hits a New 15 Year High - Death By Overdose

"Easy is the descent down to hell;
Its gates stand open, day and night.
But to retrace one's steps, to return
To see again the pure clean air, and cheerfulness and life:
That is the real task, that is our true labour."

Vergil, Aeneid

I cannot believe it, they are going to do it all over again.

All the fraudulent securities, the wanton bubbles in paper, the watered stocks, the wildly overvalued IPOs, the lies and double dealing, the financial deception, the mispriced risks, the abuse of language, the widespread corruption of public policy, and then the inevitable, sickening crunch.
Never have so many sacrificed so much, for such an underserving, careless few.
If heaven is seeing and in turn being seen, transformed and made new, by the beatific face of Pure Love in resplendent glory, then hell must be seeing, at the last and forever, one's own dark and miserable soul, as it really is, alone.

Finally, I can believe it, what I could never really accept before, believe in the reality of a place and people with a will that is beyond redemption.
Have a pleasant evening.

What Then Is Your Point, Mr. Potter?

"The more people rationalize cheating, the more it becomes a culture of dishonesty. And that can become a vicious, downward cycle. Because suddenly, if everyone else is cheating, you feel a need to cheat, too."

Stephen Covey, The Speed of Trust

"The greatest crimes of human history are made possible by the most colorless human beings. They are the careerists. The bureaucrats. The cynics. They do the little chores that make vast, complicated systems of exploitation and death a reality... And they do not ask questions."

Chris Hedges, The Careerists
If, as Jamie Galbraith has put it, economics is 'a disgraced profession,' what does it matter, when almost all the professions from medicine to law to finance have also given themselves over to the darkness of this world in high places?
Can they be so aloof that they do not see it, see what they are becoming?  See what they serve?

Are they such bystanders that they can no longer even see themselves and where they stand?

Can such a lack of self-awareness be attributed to the blindness of egoism? Or some more profound denial of conscience that rips the very fabric of their reality and its consequences?

Have we finally approached the tipping point of corrosive indifference in our leadership and the careless few, again?

Have the wages of supreme narcissism and exceptionalism finally come to be paid with a third financial crisis, and then another?  And finally the unleashing of madness?
It profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world... but for a stipend?
And when the hard winds of nemesis start howling across the land, where do they think it will end, and who and what do they think will remain standing?

23 February 2015

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - The Reign of the Careless Few

Tomorrow will be an option expiration for the precious metals on the Comex. A calendar is included below. The March contract is not active and the expiration itself is not likely to be significant.

Probably more important will be Janet Yellen's testimony to the Congress, which will last two days.
It is difficult to forecast exactly what the Fed chair will say.  Of late, she is focusing on 'productivity,' that most malleable of metrics, as a possible sign of a recovery. 
And of course, we see the cash Nasdaq pushing at the 5,000 level, bringing back sweet memories of 1997-2000.
There is certainly a recovery--  for some.

And of course the presentation of the action plan by the Greek government to the troika which was postponed by them today.

These are very 'technical' markets, meaning the usual fundamental ties to the real economy and market supply and demand are a bit 'tenuous.'
We seem to arrive at this point, about every seven years or so.   It is not that hard to do, when you keep repeating the same failed policies that benefit only a few.

What could go wrong?  

Have a pleasant evening.