Net Asset Value of Certain Precious Metals Trusts and Funds

Interestingly, the Sprott premium has been driven down to near parity with that of GTU, which has no meaningful redemption policy for its gold.

I suspect this is the result of the ham-handed way in which Sprott managed its recent sale of additional units, and the munificence with which it delivered shares to the underwriters at prices well below the market. If I had done it that way, I would have been ashamed.

TORONTO, June 1 /CNW/ - Sprott Physical Gold Trust (the "Trust") (NYSE: PHYS / TSX: PHY.U), a trust created to invest and hold substantially all of its assets in physical gold bullion and managed by Sprott Asset Management LP, today announced that it has completed its follow-on offering of 24,840,000 Units at US$11.25 per Unit for gross proceeds of US$279,450,000 (the "Offering"). This includes the exercise in full by the underwriters of their over-allotment option.

I do expect the PHYS premium to get back closer to long term trend after the excess shares are sold into the market and the profits of the underwriters are booked. The redemption feature is attractive, but the method in which Eric Sprott treated his shareholders may dampen future enthusiasm for his products.

This just serves to remind one that no trust or fund is a long term substitute for owning the real thing.

SP Futures Daily Chart: 1037 Is a Potential 'Double Bottom' with the February Low

Watch for the SP futures to form a 'double bottom' at its pre-market morning lows of 1036.75.

If that support gives way, the market will reach for a bottom, but with a 900 handle perhaps.

Still, the market is getting rather oversold here, and the techs are not confirming a break of their support in the trendline.

I remain on the 'Long gold - Short stocks' trade that was mentioned the other day.

Silver is starting to look interesting. Later this year I think it may show us an epic rally as the artificial short scheme collapses and retreats to a higher level in a short term buying panic.

It is very difficult to forecast the timing on such an event, so better to take small positions and throw them in a drawer to be looked at only on occasion. One cannot successfully trade the truly unpredictable except in their own selective memory. When will the CFTC and SEC act to create integrity in the US markets? That is why playing such a risk trade is best done with little leverage, highly discretionary funds, and long time frames.

The gold bears are mounting a 'goal line defense' just under 1200 as we are in option expiration.

Here is a look at the SP June Futures Daily Chart at 11:30 NY Time. 1055-1060 remains a key resistance point.



In the meanwhile here is a video interview with Eric Sprott on BNN regarding our farcical financial system presided over by the central banks.

And an interesting discussion about gold, naked short selling, and Goldman Sachs with Stacy Herbert and Max Keiser, with the engaging headline, Goldman Sachs: Undeclared Enemy of the State.

Is the Sprott Physical Gold Trust in the Market Trying to Buy 10 Tonnes of Gold?

Something is powering the spot price of gold higher the past few days. Are the Chinese or some other entity claiming the 191.3 tonnes of IMF gold again?

Perhaps relatedly, Sprott Asset Management is involved with a new physical gold bullion trust now trading in the States with the ticker symbol "PHYS."

The IPO for the fund was last Friday 26 February, with a reported 40 million shares outstanding at 10$Cndn. There is no hard news yet on how much of the IPO was held by underwriters. In fact, most of the news on it is a bit dated.

Here is their website for the Sprott Physical Gold Trust, and the link to their NAV financials. Here is a link to the prospectus. This is a link to the stocks' *indicative value* which appears to be its NAV which they use in their premium calculation from their website.

As you can see, there is still some key information missing. The cash assets less expenses of the trust are not yet listed. I have not seen a detailed release on the results of the IPO yet. And more importantly, the trust lists only 13,686 ounces of gold owned, with a market value of approximately US$15 million.

According to the prospectus, the fund will store its gold in Canada, is established in Ontario and is under that jurisdiction, but will be calculating its NAV in US$. It appears to be a trust where price tracks their NAV, and not an ETF which tracks the price of some external instrument like an stock index or spot commodity prices.

The implication is that they will not be selling and buying bullion in relation to market fluctuations as actively as an ETF pegged to spot for example. So the examination of premiums and discounts to NAV will be an issue.

If the trust has sold all its units listed as outstanding, they are in a cash position of approximately $390 million. Are the underwriters still holding any of this inventory? Their prospectus commits them to holding 97% of their assets in gold bars. No certificates or derivatives. And they are only listing $15 million in current gold assets.

Nine out of ten Americans might notice that the Sprott trust needs to buy about 10 tonnes of gold, the size of most small central bank purchases, if they have not negotiated and secured delivery already. According to the Prospectus, the trust does not traffic in paper certificates and derivatives, but in good bullion only.

I am more familiar with trusts and funds taking an incremental approach in their bullion purchases, and the negotiation for delivery before the units are sold. I am not sure what the case is here. It obviously is worth watching. Spot gold has risen quite a bit since last Friday. There is not enough data to suggest a correlation. However, if the entire IPO was placed, and the current gold holdings on the web site are accurate, they need to acquire almost 10 tonnes of quality physical bullion in a market reported to be tight in deliverable quality supply.

And the purchase is large enough so that we ougbt to be able to see an inventory drawdown somewhere. I have heard the buying will be done in London, and not at the Comex. The last purchases of this size were supplied by the IMF directly.

Above and beyond the short term interest in potential physical gold buying pressure, the Trust has some promising innovations in terms of holdings and transparency as compared to some other similar funds.

What I found personally appealing, subject to additional detail, is the ability for individual unit holders to redeem their shares for delivery in as little as one bar of London bullion, at the NAV but subject to delivery fees. This will obviously have its appeal for those who wish to add bullion for retirement accounts, with an eye to taking physical delivery at some point without incurring storage fees which can be significant over time.

I will leave the detailed analysis of this trust to more capable people who specialize in analyzing ETFs and Trusts. I have to admit that the IPO completely escaped my attention, although I did know it was coming some months ago. I had read enough then to know that it met some of my personal needs, based on my holdings and age. I find it more suitable than GLD for example, which seems to be a speculative trading vehicle. I prefer the Trusts like CEF and GTU for some things, and the redemption policy of PHYS seemed to be advantageous even compared to them. But more details are required.

As always perform your own due diligence and if needed discuss your investments with a qualified investment advisor.

Disclosure: I bought some units yesterday despite not feeling comfortable yet about being able to calculate the NAV for myself, and not having some of the details regarding redemptions and the status of their holdings and the IPO. It was some months ago that I read the prospectus. The NAV was indicated yesterday at 9.49 by the company on their site from Friday, which was less than 2 percent premium at yesterday's market price, which is advantageous and more than reasonable for my purposes.