Comex Registered Gold Falls To a New Low at 640,552 Ounces - Claims Per Ounce At High of 59

There was a withdrawal of 17,988 registered ounces of gold from the Scotia Mocatta warehouse on Tuesday.

The three kilogram bars representing 96.46 ounces came back to the registered category at Brinks. 

This brings the total ounces of deliverable (registered) gold down to a new low of 640,552 ounces for this leg of the gold bull market.

The 'owners per ounce' of registered gold is still bumping around the all time high of 59 potential claims per ounce.  For the interest of those who have asked, I include the comparable charts for silver this evening as well.

As claims are presented at these prices, gold will have to be delivered.  If the gold becomes scarce at these prices, higher prices may be called for to make additional supply available. The bullion banks can continue to resort to leasing gold from the central banks and using it to settle claims, but that particular game seems to be coming to a sad and sorry end.  When Germany asked for the return of its gold and was flatly refused, we heard the faint sounds of a fat lady preparing to sing.

Weighed and found wanting.

Stand and deliver.

The Massive Drawdown of Gold From the West Continues - Silver Comparison - the Abyss

"We looked into the abyss if the gold price rose further. A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake.  

Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, manage it."

Sir Eddie George, Bank of England, September 1999


“In times of change, learners inherit the earth, while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists.”

Eric Hoffer

Here is the change, in tonnes, in the inventory of major exchanges and ETFs for gold and silver since the beginning of the year.  Nick Laird of Sharelynx.com was kind enough to share the data which he has collected with me.  He does a remarkable job in maintaining an enormous amount of data at his site.

As you may recall, both silver and gold have seen price declines since the beginning of the year. As a reminder, silver is down 28.7% and gold is down 21.5%.  I show this in the last chart. So they have both seen comparably stiff price declines this year.

Since the beginning of the year, the major exchanges and ETFs for silver have added about 1,494 tonnes of bullion. 

But what is absolutely remarkable is that since the beginning of the year the Comex and some of the major ETFs have LOST about 856 tonnes of gold bullion.  And I suspect much of that bullion has gone to the non-reporting vaults in Asia and the Mideast. And there is import/export data that corroborates that hypothesis.

Now, some might say that they don't see what this means, that they don't see the significance. Or that the significance is that people like silver but don't like gold, even though both have seen price declines, and even though demand for physical gold in Asia and the Mideast has been explosive this year according to trade records.

I will tell you what the significance is.  The significance is that you are, figuratively speaking, watching water running uphill and out of sight.  And some look at this and say, nothing to see here.

That gold which is disappearing from the reporting grid will not be coming back to these largely western vaults anytime soon.   And it certainly will not be coming back at these prices.  It is going into some fairly strong hands with an eye to the long term.

Silver is still acting like a precious metal, similar to platinum, which added 21 tonnes, and palladium which added about 1.5 tonnes.

Here is what is happening, as shown in the three charts below.  Draw your own conclusions.   But keep in the mind the negative gold forward rates and record leverage in potential paper claims for physical gold that we are seeing and hearing reported.

And this chart does not include the leased gold that is being occasionally disclosed by Western central banks, which seems to be going to satisfy the appetite of Asia.

It seems pretty darn obvious to me that there are some big buyers outside this reporting system that are taking down supply, and at a fairly aggressive rate, especially in the last twelve months. 

You know that I think this exercise was triggered by the revelation that Germany's gold was missing, and a reflexive price manipulation that was intended to dampen demand, but instead set off an avalanche of physical buying.  

Given that genuinely new gold supply is only added slowly from mining, once the West realizes what is happening the turnaround could take on the character of a short squeeze, and perhaps even a panic and market dislocation to the upside.

And if you are one of those who are holding receipts for gold held in this system, you may find that you have been rehypothecated with extreme prejudice, and given a forced cash settlement at another's discretion. When the time comes your assets may be found to have been used as cannon fodder in the currency war.  Thank you for your support.

The German people asked for their national gold back, and were told by the Fed to go sit down in the lobby for seven years and wait for it. Are you kidding me? What is it going to take to wake people up that something has gone seriously wrong in these markets?  

What kind of new fraud or disclosure of fiduciary misbehavior will it take to bring the dawn?  And what will happen when the dawn finally comes?  Do you wish to be standing in a very long line holding a warehouse receipt or brokerage statement?  Good luck with that.

You may be a financier, fearing the abyss and hanging on, obsessively doing what worked in the past.  But here is some news.  You don't have to fall into the abyss,  the abyss is coming for you.   And the longer this nonsense continues, the worse the drawdowns will become, and the more painful the final reckoning will be. 

Weighed, and found wanting.

Stand and deliver.

Comex Deliverable Gold Falls to 658,443 Ounces, Claims Per Deliverable Ounce at 55

There was a change in status of 48,652 ounces of gold bullion in the JPM warehouse which were withdrawn from the registered to the eligible category.  Apparently someone had a change of heart.

Big change of heart.  About one and half tonnes worth.

The claims per ounce of deliverable gold stand at 55.  As I have explained before, this is a metric, a way of measuring inventory against potential ownership.

Like the velocity of money or a speedometer on a car it does not do anything.  But it does provide information that can be quite useful if you are interested in where you are and where you might be going.

But it is a measure of some related things with meaning. And one that apparently annoys some who would rather not notice it now that it is at an extreme reading.  Extremely low readings of deliverable gold relative to demand generally mark a trend change in price within six months.

And that makes sense.  It will take higher prices to move more of that gold out of the eligible to the deliverable category, the antics of JPM notwithstanding.

But in the meanwhile quite a bit of gold has been draining away from the West to chase the premiums for delivery in the East.  The offtake in the Comex and the GLD ETF have been remarkable, not seen in any of the other precious metals.

This does not strike some people as odd.  And that is understandable.  The really big changes, what are called sea changes, always catch most of the people unawares and tosses them for a loss.  And experts are not exempt, not at all, because they often become lost in the familiar.  I think we have seen that most recently in the financial crisis that so many economists failed to see coming even as it rolled over the economy.

And then there is the 'investment' activity of the western Central Banks with their nation's gold reserves.  The obligations must weigh heavily.

I find it quite interesting that there is a new scandal brewing in the FX markets involving price rigging.   It is odd how the Banks have been caught rigging so many markets, but when it comes to precious metals, the apologists find all sorts of odd behaviour to be quite innocent and above reproach.

We are approaching the time when those who have will throw down, and those who have not, will fade away.  I do not see the future as inevitable.  But I do believe that there will be a reckoning of sorts. There always seems to be.

Weighed, and found wanting.

Stand and deliver.

COMEX Gold Warehouses Continue to Bleed Out As 'Owners Per Ounce' Climbs Back Over 53

"We looked into the abyss if the gold price rose further. A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake.   Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, manage it."

Sir Eddie George, Bank of England, reported in private conversation, September 1999

We saw more significant action in the Comex warehouse complex yesterday. 

A total of almost 4,000 ounces left the greatly diminished deliverable category, bringing it down to 717,666 ounces.    The ownership per ounce for each of those deliverable ounces is back up to 53.

Over 50,000 ounces left the Comex complex overall, taking the total amount of gold bullion there to 6,859,476 ounces.

As you know the gold bullion has been coming out of the ETFs in particular, and it is not showing up in the Comex warehouses.  There is widespread speculation and anecdotal evidence that this gold is being used to fulfill deliveries in Asia, after being refined into 400 ounce bars.  I do not think that it is likely to come back anytime soon.

There was a great deal made today of a letter that was sent out by JPM, limiting cash withdrawals by customers significantly and eliminating overseas wire transfers completely.  I have heard from some well-heeled individuals who are pulling their cash out in response to this.

I do not think this is a sign of government capital controls.  It is more likely involved with the trouble that JPM had gotten into with the OCC over their lack of compliance with regard to anti-money laundering measures.  As you may recall they received a 'cease and desist' order in January over this and have been under stricter surveillance since then.

Sometimes Banks engage in campaigns to migrate customers out of old platforms and less desirable accounts into more profitable account programs.  I did not see a message in their indicating that, but it is a possibility.  

It could also be a short term cash problem at the bank.   Perhaps there is some perceived risk there that the general public is not yet aware.  I find that a little hard to believe, but it seems more likely than a move to more general capital controls by the government.  If another big bank or two institute similar rules then maybe there is a little heat there worth our notice.

When it comes to metals, this market is just a mess.  I am appalled at the manner in which the CFTC and the CME have been conducting their roles as overseers.  These big market sells in quiet periods are almost unbelievable in their frequency and brazen effect on price.  

Are some bullion banks in trouble with their positions again?   It seems like something very odd is going on, and we know that when the banks get too badly offsides the market, the central banks are often willing to extend themselves to help them 'for the sake of the system.'

Gold forwards have gone negative again.  This represents tightness in the short term supply of physical bullion.   There have been massive drawdowns in Comex deliverable gold and the ETFs this year, without anything at all like it in silver, platinum, or palladium which have held steady or gained over the same time period. And no one seems to notice.  Le monde autour est sourd, bien entendu!

I suspect that those who see nothing unusual at all in this, and are seasoned watchers and traders in precious metals, are probably whistling past the graveyard.  It will take higher prices to free up more gold to be available for delivery, and that will make it harder to keep tapping the ETFs to obtain physical supply with which to satisfy Asia.  It is quite the predicament.

And there remains the fact that the Fed told the Bundesbank that they may have the return of the German people's gold, but not for seven years.  This obviously suggests that the gold might otherwise be occupied, spoken for, and encumbered.

There may be a reckoning when the smoke clears, and the quantities actually available to buyers readily on the shelves are revealed at last.

Weighed, and found wanting.

Stand and deliver.

Owners Per Ounce of Silver and Gold at the Comex

For those who say they are influenced by COMEX statistics, there is a noticeable divergence between the availability of gold and silver for delivery there at these prices, especially when compared to historical trends and averages.

One of the non-COMEX factors that someone with the bigger picture view of things would note is that unlike gold, there is no great store of silver bullion in the hands of banks that can be leased out to backstop speculative shortages that might occur. So while the situation in silver may appear to be benign, in fact in many ways it is still a bit thin.

However, there is an obvious flight of inventory in gold going from the speculative West to the accumulating East. And there does not seem to be the same phenomenon underway in silver. I base this not on the COMEX, but on looking at most of the ETFs and exchanges that publish public data from around the world. Keep in mind that the COMEX is largely speculative, and not a major delivery mechanism for gold and silver.

People like to view things that support their biases. But the facts are what they are.

There is something very odd going on with regard to the inventory of gold bullion available for sale, that does not square with its sharp decline in price.

The Amazing Disappearing Gold Bullion: Major Precious Metal Inventory Changes in 2013

The difference in the changes between gold and silver inventories is interesting.

I suspect that a great deal of the gold that has been lost this year has been repurposed to private ownership in China, the Mideast, and India among other places.

Although I do not show them here, Palladium and Platinum look much more like silver than gold.

Most of the conventional, off the cuff explanations do not seem to hold together under serious scrutiny.  Yes, silver is 'poor man's gold,' but Platinum certainly isn't.  And an aversion to paper gold, but not to paper silver? 

Gold seems to be somewhat different, even unique, with a large amount of physical inventory leaving the West.

Overall about 811 tonnes of gold have been withdrawn from inventory, while 1,434 tonnes of silver, 21 tonnes of platinum and 1.5 tonnes of palladium were added to these same types of ETFs and funds during 2013.

A remarkable short squeeze on gold bullion supply might occur if the price of gold breaks out, stimulating more investment in these 'paper gold' instruments.

The data for these charts came from Nick Laird at ShareLynx.com. 

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Appearance Versus Reality

As you know I have commented previously about the large drawdowns in gold bullion inventory from the COMEX and GLD among other things. And there is no similar decrease in silver bullion despite an even greater price decline YTD. There is intraday commentary on this here.

I have not yet figured out what is causing this, and I may never find it out. But it does seem to suggest that if gold should break out and run higher there is going to be a grabasstic rush to stake out all the deliverable and allocated bullion that you can find. YTD the gold bullion inventories are down in excess of 700 tonnes, but we see no decline in silver, platinum or palladium inventories across a broad spectrum of publicly disclosing entities.

So capping gold and silver makes a lot of sense here. Let's see how this impasse between supply and demand of real goods plays out into the end of December.

As you may recall we saw big takedowns in the price of gold and silver the past two Decembers. You can click on the two December Manipulation labels at the bottom of this post to see prior comments from last year.

So, one cannot predict what will happen again, but it will most likely be interesting.

Have a pleasant evening.

COMEX Warehouse Gold Bullion: Price Moves Smell of Desperation As Inventory Remains Thin

'O sir, to willful men,
The injuries that they themselves procure
Must be their schoolmasters.”

William Shakespeare, King Lear

There were 3,215 ounces of gold bullion taken out of the HSBC warehouse.

The JPM warehouse had 7,143 ounces changed from deliverable to eligible. 

Perhaps the price action freed up some bullion from the GLD ETF.  They need it badly. The levels of gold bullion backing up the leveraged COMEX paper claims on gold exchange remain remarkably thin and oversubscribed.

The international monetary regime is changing.  Nothing could be more clear if one listens to what is being said, and sees what is being done. 

The European Central Banks have made their intentions quite clear, and the Asian monetary powers are in full preparation for their plans, whatever they may finally be.

The forces driving this change are powerful and founded in time and nature. We are watching history unfolding.

Today we saw the familiar methods of the past in a blatant pricing exercise that smelled of desperation. They can set the price by force in the markets in the short term, but they cannot produce that which they have taken, or fulfill that which is owed.  

Weighed, and found wanting.

Stand and deliver.

Fives Tonnes of Customer Gold Leave the HSBC Vault

On Monday 173,582 ounces, or roughly five tonnes, of customer gold was withdrawn the HSBC warehouse.

This takes the total gold in all of the COMEX warehouses to a new low of 6,860,160 ounces in 100 oz. bars.

The portion of this that is deliverable or 'dealer gold' remains at 672,000 ounces.

While this is adequate for the non-active delivery month of September, these are slim numbers for the upcoming active delivery month of October, and hardly appropriate for the contracts that are held through December, at least at these prices.

I will include additional charts as appropriate later on this evening.

These inventory figures indicate that option expiration shenanigans aside, higher prices will be required to move more gold into the dealer category and clear the markets at the COMEX.  The blatant price manipulation in paper has led to a tough situation for the banking cartel which seems to be at the apogee of their power, despite a prominent role in the financial crisis of only five years ago.

"When I despair, I remember that all through history the ways of truth and love have always won. There have been tyrants, and murderers, and for a time they can seem invincible, but in the end they always fall. Think of it--always."

Mohandas K. Gandhi

Weighed, and found wanting.

Stand and deliver.

COMEX Deliverable Gold Bullion Has Plunged By 78% in 2013 - Claims Per Ounce Highest On Record

The last time that the claims per ounce were nearly this high was in the late 1990's. At that time the central banks had to intervene to keep one or more bullion banks from faltering.

It occurred during a period of coordinated bullion selling from the central banks into the market under the Washington Agreement, culminating in the notorious gold dumping known as Brown's Bottom.  Their gold may have been sold as well, but at least the Germans still have a receipt. 

That selling failed to hold the line, and shortly thereafter gold began its great bull market run. 

"We looked into the abyss if the gold price rose further. A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake.   Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, manage it."

Sir Eddie George, Bank of England, reportedly in private conversation, September 1999

The first chart below shows that pressure on available supply in owners per ounce rather nicely.   Nick Laird, the maestro of charts from Sharelynx.com, was kind enough to go back and pull all the available data. It helps to complete the picture don't you think?

One difference this time is that the fellows who examine the more detailed reports tell us that the big boy of the bullion banks, JP Morgan, is said to have already liquidated their large short position and gone net long gold. Perhaps they are well advised.

Deliverable 'dealer' gold, known as registered gold at the COMEX, has plunged a remarkable 78% during the vicious price smashing of gold in 2013.

This decline in gold available for delivery has not been matched by a similar decline in contracts bidding for that gold, known as the open interest.

Therefore the number of contracts for each ounce of deliverable gold has now reached a new all time high of about 57.8 claims per ounce, a level that has not ever been seen since Nixon closed the gold window.

There was another big buildup in the claims per ounce that occurred just before gold began its big bull market run in 2000.    Some contend that this drain in dealer gold was the result of a last ditch effort to the hold the price of gold lower before the market broke and the price began its remarkable run.

But given that the banks became net buyers of gold around 2008, as shown in the third chart below, it does not seem likely that the Bank of England or the western central banks will sell bullion into the market to save the overleveraged speculators again.

Recently the Federal Reserve was unable to comply with a request from the Deutsche Bundesbank to return the German national gold which had been held in custody in New York. The vault seems to be a bit on the thin side in general.  I am sure all the gold is there, it is just that we live in an age in which multiples of rehypothecation for our financial assets held in trust are de rigeur.   All the finest financiers are doing it without fear or regret, even when it occasionally decimates their customer accounts or shakes the global economy to its foundations.

Also included below is a peek at the registered inventories of all the COMEX warehouses.  Some of the declines are impressive.  What a remarkable coincidence.

There has rarely been a dull moment since they knocked down Glass-Steagall. It will be interesting to see what happens next.   This has been so much fun that it hard to know whether to crack open a bottle of champagne, or to make a run for the border.

We'll probably have to wait for the equity market to break until after Goldman brings out the Twitter IPO.  Priorities.

Have a pleasant weekend. See you Sunday evening.

Claims Per Ounce of Deliverable Gold at the COMEX Rise to New High of 57.6

Based on yesterday's activity, the claims per deliverable ounce of gold on the COMEX has risen to a new high of 57.6 contracts per ounce.

As you know it is highly unlikely that all contract holders would ever stand for delivery.

But it is a useful indicator of how the open interest is going relative to available inventory. It suggests that higher prices may be in the offing.

The last two times that we saw these extremes there was a meaningful trend change in the price of gold from lower to higher.  This makes sense because it is higher prices that would cause those who are merely using the COMEX warehouses for storage to offer their bullion for potential sale.

The extremes we are seeing now are quite new since the bull market began back in 2003.

Let's see what happens.   But the message appears to be written on the wall.

Weighed, and found wanting.

Stand and deliver.

NAV Premiums Of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds - Physical Gold Demand Provokes Another Bullion Redemption - A Murder of Black Swans

The woods decay, the woods decay and fall,
The vapours weep their burthen to the ground,
Man comes and tills the field and lies beneath,
And after many a summer dies the swan.

Alfred Lord Tennyson, Tithonus


N’en déplaise à ces fous nommés sages de Grèce,
En ce monde il n’est point de parfaite sagesse;
Tous les hommes sont fous, et malgré tous leurs soîns
Ne diffèrent entre eux que du plus ou du moins.

Nicolas Boileau-Despréaux, from the frontspiece of Mackay's Madness of Crowds

The short term demand for gold bullion provoked another exchange of units for bullion from the Sprott Physical Gold Trust.

The fund saw 1,500,000 units exchanged for 12,460 ounces of gold bullion at the rate of .008 ounces per unit.   That is about a $17,000,000 transaction.

I believe that this redemption feature is one of the reasons why the Sprott funds tend to hold their premiums a little better than others, although in the longer term that makes little difference. I use it to measure the overall tenor of the market, and also to help pick certain entry and exit points.

Since there is no real financial advantage in the exchange, one would tend to attribute this to the huge short term demand for physical gold bullion that makes the forward rates negative and drives other behaviours not ordinarily seen.  All things considered where else is one going to obtain a large amount of high quality physical gold at these prices?

Grant Williams says in a recent interview that he has heard of requests for GLD bullion redemptions in excess of the $14,000,000 minimum that have been recently denied.   If this is in fact the case, it is a sign of tremendous short term pressure in the bullion market that could be a sign of the failure to reach a genuine market clearing price.   I find it hard to believe that GLD could refuse such a transaction given the terms and condition of their fund. 

Normally I would discount such speculative things, but given the astonishing fact that the Fed literally denied the legitimate request of the Bundesbank for the repatriation of their national gold is a clear sign that something seems to have gone terribly wrong.   And the other inventory measures I regularly show are out at the tails of probability and sustainability.

This type of protracted market distortion can create some very difficult conditions that may place the integrity of the markets at risk.   It reminds one of the late stage MF Global situation, but on a significantly larger scale.  These jokers are so leveraged that they seem to be robbing Peter to pay Paul, and everything is flowing until the music stops, and then ba-boom.  Who could have seen that coming?

Thus a single trigger event can set off a cascade of nearly catastrophic events in a system that has been allowed to become overly fragile.  And that fragility is very often directly tied to interconnected rehypothecation of assets, a mispricing of risk, and excessive leverage.  That is the story of the most recent financial crisis, and why there will likely be more.  They ignore the lessons of history in their arrogance and their greed.  Being a sociopath or narcissist means never having to feel that you're sorry, much less say it.

I don't see any other way to explain this, what I see happening.  And the consequences could be quite dramatic.  

This could make for a scandal of memorable proportion, even for this time of financial scandals.  Is there any market that is not being rigged and manipulated by the financiers and their friends?   Their hypocrisy seems to know no bounds.