Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - It Can't Happen Here - And No One Can See It Coming

 

"The time is almost here — and ignorance, falsehood, cruelty, greed and lust of power were never stronger in the hearts of any ruling class in history than they are in those who constitute the Invisible Government of America today.  Day by day the money-masters of America become more aware of their danger, they draw together, they grow more class-conscious, more aggressive. 

The [first world] war has taught them the possibilities of propaganda; it has accustomed them to the idea of enormous campaigns which sway the minds of millions and make them pliable to any purpose. American political corruption was the buying up of legislatures and assemblies to keep them from doing the people's will and protecting the people's interests; it was the exploiter entrenching himself in power, it was financial autocracy undermining and destroying political democracy."

Upton Sinclair, The Brass Check, 1919

 

“Booms start with some tie-in to reality, some reason which justifies the increase in asset values, and then — and this is the critical feature of speculative mood — the market loses touch with reality.” 

John Kenneth Galbraith

 

“A country that tolerates evil means—evil manners, standards of ethics—for a generation, will be so poisoned that it never will have any good end.” 

 Sinclair Lewis, It Can't Happen Here 

 

"Everyone knows that plagues have a way of recurring throughout history, yet somehow we find it hard to believe in the ones that crash down on us out of the sky. There have always been plagues and wars, yet they always take us by surprise. When war breaks out people say it's stupid and won't last long. Stupidity has a knack of getting in the way, which we would see if not wrapped up in ourselves. In this our townsfolk were like everybody else— they did not believe in plagues." 

Albert Camus, The Plague

 

Stocks were hammered in the morning trade, purportedly over concerns about inflation.

Comments from Stanley Druckenmiller about the status of the Dollar contributed to the selling. 

Gold and silver were also caught in the early selling.

However, as the day wore on, the dip-buyers came in, buying up precious metals until they went on to close with decent gains.

I joined a bit in the early dip-buying.  I had waiting for a pullback like this.

Big cap tech also recovered significantly in the afternoon.

The  rest of the equity market not so much. 

I would presume that traders will be watching the consumer inflation data out tomorrow morning.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Cryptic Valuations and the Bubble From Hell - At the Quiet Limit of the World

 

"Here we may reign secure, and in my choice
to reign is worth ambition though in Hell: 
Better to reign in Hell, than serve in Heaven."

John Milton, Paradise Lost 

 

“Evil when we are in its power is not felt as evil, but as a necessity, or even a duty.   Sin is not a distance, it is a turning of our gaze in the wrong direction.." 

Simone Weil

 

"...old as Babylon, and evil as Hell."

Edward Abbey

 

"Foolishness has a knack of getting its way; as we should see if we were not always so much wrapped up in ourselves.  In this respect our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; they did not believe in plagues." 

Albert Camus

 

We are back in a bubble that is strikingly similar in size and sentiment ot the dotcom bubble at the turn of the century. 

This struck me very hard today while I was watching financial tv, and listened to a discussion of the cryptocurrency markets. 

Sometime in the next two years, and with a good probability of later this year, we are going to fall back down into the plunge pool of reality. 

The cynicism with which people approach most things now is almost incredible. 

I am now very alert, and have structured my portfolio and my general life more defensively. 

I have taken most profits.   I employ no leverage.

Am I being overcautious?   Yes I think I probably am.

Especially compared to those who are chasing risks with abandon, and begging to get skinned.

Have a pleasant evening. 

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Mania - Metals Option Expiration, Fed Meeting Decision Tomorrow

 

"Few things are more destructive to Christians than anger.  Anger causes us to lose our self-control and to say and do things we would otherwise never consider.  Anger, if allowed to remain, turns into bitterness that eats away at our hearts.

Anger does not bring about God’s redemptive work; far more often it hinders what God is working to accomplish.  If you feel that you have a righteous anger because of something that has happened, see if you are holding anger in your heart without sin.   Is your anger turning into bitterness?  Is your anger causing you to make excuses for your own ungodly behavior?  Is your anger preventing you from acting in a loving, redemptive, and Christlike way?" 

Henry Blackaby

 

"Those wishing abundant wealth are falling into temptation and a trap, and into many foolish and harmful passions which plunge them into ruin and destruction.  For the love of money is the root of all evil, and people in their desire for it have strayed from the faith and have pierced themselves with many pains.  But you people of God, avoid all this. Instead, pursue righteousness, devotion, faith, love, patience, and gentleness." 

1 Timothy 6:9-11

 

We are in a speculative mania now.  Hysteria and passions are running high with greed and entitlement.

When the reckoning comes, the insiders and moneyed interests will be blaming the small speculators and 'Robin Hood' crowd.  They always do.  

Hate the game and not the players, right? 

But they are at the heart of it, urging on the speculation, and steadily weakening the safeguards and regulations at every turn so that they can extend their outsized misappropriation of the nation's wealth.

In the same manner that they foment political anger and social hatred and oppression and riots, with a towering pride and self-righteousness and self-delusion.

Know who it is that you serve.

Madness.

Do not be so concerned about your money, that you let go so easily of your self.

Have a pleasant evening. 

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The FOMC Punch and Judy Show - Non-Farm Payrolls Tomorrow

“The tyrant is a child of pride, who drinks from his sickening cup recklessness and vanity, until from his high flown crest he plummets headlong into the dust of hope."

Sophocles, Oedipus Rex


“So much for Caligula the Emperor; the rest of this history must deal with the Monster."

Suetonius, The Twelve Caesars

Stocks were digesting their recent gains today, while glorying in the weak economic data.

It was announced today that Trumpolini intends to nominate Herman Cain as a Fed governor.  This easily tops his most recent nomination of Stephen Moore, who was at least nominally qualified despite being a certified Art Laffer collaborating supply-sider.

Thank God Trump does not own a favorite horse.

Having this many knuckleheads managing the world's most powerful currency and providing significant regulatory oversight to the US economy may be unintentionally very good for gold.

This reminds us of the need for checks and balances, and oversight as a restraint on the abuses of authority.  While it is tempting to unleash the power of nearly unrestrained fiat money in order to solve short term problems, one must consider who might one day be wielding such dangerous, highly discretionary power.

Speaking of restraints on reckless behaviour, gold and silver were hit hard and early, but managed to recoup their losses and actually finish higher on the day.   They closed higher as did the Dollar.  One might have thought it was a furtive, early move by some towards safe havens.

Sooner or later a crash is coming, and it may be terrific.

Non-farm payrolls report tomorrow.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Sooner or Later a Crash Is Coming— and It May Be Terrific

"It looks like we might have another blow off top in the works.   The tech sector was rampaging higher today.  When in doubt break glass and recycle the last bubble.  Let's see how much more these jokers can squeeze out of this."

Jesse, Le Cafe Americain, 21 March 2019


"My cyclical calculations and trend forecasts suggest that July 2020 may be a decisive, if not pivotal, period in our time. I think I may have mentioned this once or twice before."

Jesse, Le Cafe Americain, 26 February 2019


"It's probably early days, but now might be the time to start taking precautions against a 2008 class event in the financial markets.   I would suggest it might arrive anytime between now and July 2020.  These sorts of things depend on the magnitude of any 'trigger event,' which is why it is so difficult to forecast with regard to specific dates.  As time goes on the required force for a market moving event decreases until it takes very little to set that ball in motion."

Jesse, Le Cafe Americain, 24 July 2018


"Sooner or later a crash is coming.
And it may be terrific."

Roger Babson, Sept. 15, 1929

The antics in support of the Levi-Strauss IPO in the market yesterday were just begging to be shorted into the close.  And I did.  And cashed in today.  I do not trade short term in size much anymore, but sometimes they do almost ring a bell, and it is hard for an old hound dog to just keep laying on the porch.

The US Treasury Yield Curve inverted today for the first time since 2007.  The talking heads were stumbling and mumbling about it.   They just cannot imagine what is coming.

Timing a big event like this is brutal, since there are so many exogenous variables.  And forecasting a notoriously low probability event is rather difficult, even when the probability becomes relatively more probable.

We may move even higher in this markets asset bubble.  Heck, we could even see a real monetary driven asset inflation before this is over, even if there is virtually no organic inflation because of the skewed and corruption financial system.  

But with respect to timing I still like my longer running forecast, suggesting we will see a genuinely significant downside event in the markets, and perhaps in the socio-political system, by July 2020.  although now that seems like an 'outside' date for it.

If December 2018 was really a market 'break' in the manner of March 1929 then we may not even make it to October of this year.

Gold showed the kind of resilience today that one would look for in a safe haven asset.  It moved higher with the Dollar  But keep in mind that in a liquidation event even gold is likely to take a hit. Likely, but it will recover more quickly than most other assets.  Silver will tag along, weighed down by its industrial component.

It appears as though Theresa May has obtained a Brexit reprieve of sorts from the EU. Let's see if we can reset our counter as the situation clarifies.

Let us remember the poor people along the Missouri River who are being flooded out, thanks to the aging and inadequate levees which have crumbled.  We all know why we can't have nice things like the rest of the developed world.   After all, sacrifices must be made.

I am pleased to let you know that another Englishman will be recognized as a saint.   John Henry Newman has been named for canonization, although the exact date for this has not yet been given.   I have been praying and quietly supporting the cause for this since 1983.   And now it seems as though it is finally here.

Need little, want less, love more. For those who abide in love abide in God, and God in them.

Have a pleasant weekend.