Les Confessions d'un Assassin Financier - At Home and Abroad

At Home

"And in some ways, it creates this false illusion that there are people out there looking out for the interest of taxpayers, the checks and balances that are built into the system are operational, when in fact they're not.

And what you're going to see and what we are seeing is it'll be a breakdown of those governmental institutions. And you'll see governments that continue to have policies that feed the interests of -- and I don't want to get clichéd, but the one percent or the .1 percent -- to the detriment of everyone else."

Neil Barofsky

Do you see why there is no real reform now?   Do you understand the hard  choice that a person of honour and conscience is given?  Who will make such an unfashionable choice when they have so few models to follow and almost no moral encouragement to find in this vile era of selfishness and greed? 

Do you understand now why laws that are widely opposed by the people like the secret pre-approval of the Trans-Pacific Partnership can be bullied through a Congress with an approval rating in the single digits, seemingly without a care?





And abroad

“There are two ways to conquer and enslave a country. One is by the sword. The other is by debt.”

John Adams

Do you see why suddenly a nation must be broken by fraud or by force and rebuilt, bent to the will of the powerful.  Why its people can be devastated by harsh policies that make no sense, its sovereignty replaced by a puppet regime, while its assets are privatized and sold?





And if a person follows their conscience and sacrifices greatly for the truth, do you offer any comfort and encouragement, or even a thought or a prayer for them? Are you capable of even caring? Or is it all just another opportunity to make some quick money for yourself?

Would it be any different, if instead of placing bets on the sickness and misery of women and children, you simply murdered them, and took their possessions for yourselves, and sold their clothes, even their teeth and their hair?

It is a hard world after all. And you would become truly exceptional then.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Forget Greece, Eyes On the Options

"Real consumption expenditures have yet to show signs of a significant pickup from a slowdown in winter."

NY Federal Reserve, US Economy In a Snapshot, June 2015

Today was certainly interesting.

Gold was hit fairly hard on the news that there is a 'deal with Greece.'

Stocks rallied, but then gave up quite a bit of it in the close.

And silver never really moved except for a little fakeout and then trended higher. What is up with that?

 

I think at least part of the reason is the huge open interest for gold in August.  And the expectations of a China announcement in the Autumn about their official holdings.

 

The structure of the options contracts is rather interesting as well.  There are quite a few option contracts in gold that are structured around the 1200+ level for the July 2015 calls as shown below.

 

I didn't see today as a fundamental move as much as a 'technical trade.'   The Bucket Shop will have its due.

 

Have a pleasant evening.

 

 

 

 

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Played Like a Bouzouki

We have a deal! 

No really. This time we do have a deal.  Uh, we think.

 

And the cry went forth, and Very Serious People breathed a sigh of relief, the Greek people continued to take their euros out of the banks, and the markets rallied.   Again.

 

In the usual opera buffo, the Greeks accidentally sent the wrong terms last night.   And then sent the correct terms this morning, too late for the powers that be to adequately consider them.  But just in time for the markets to open and for the Western world to celebrate.

 

In the terms it appears that Syriza has put a toe over its 'red line,' causing some to bubble over with calls of premature capitulation.  Huzzah! 

 

It is hard to handicap this kind of game, when you really do not understand the objectives and the nature of it, and use all the wrong sources to discover what is really happening.

 

More likely they disappointed first, brought the markets and the worried ministers to the brink, again, and then gave them terms that were not satisfactory, but much harder to dismiss.

Sometimes their strength is their weakness, and your weakness is your strength, if you know how to play the game.

 

Keep in mind that there is no 'deal' yet, but Greece is wearing down the opposition and fraying their nerves fairly well.  And under duress they may take a deal, get their house in order as best they can, but in the Greek manner, continue the fight from the hills and the islands.

 

After all, when is a default not a default?   If it is delayed a year, involving a larger amount?  Believe me when I say that this dance is still in early days, and the band is still getting warmed up.

 

Life is not so boring these days.  Some day I would like to share some ouzo or grappe with these fellows and have a good talk, share some war stories.  High stake negotiations are always interesting.

 

And in their love of life, Greece is teaching northern Europe to dance.  I am sure that Germany would like to take off their suitcoats and learn.  But not everyone can yet hear the tune clearly.

 

Have a pleasant evening.

 

 

 

The Decision Path For US Equities

These charts show two potential rising wedges on the US stock futures.

They are in a period of uncertainty after the long rally from the bottom of the financial crisis.