13 March 2014

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Jitterbugs


Geopolitical considerations overwhelmed those peachy US economic results this morning.

China is only projected to turn in about 7.4% growth this year, and of course Russia's actions in the Ukraine, particularly in the Crimea, has everyone all twitchy.

How dare they meddle with our meddling on their borders? We are the deciders about what is meddling around the world, in consultation with our client states.

Speaking of meddlers, the Fed will be meeting next week, and this will give us more time to contemplate the tapering of the Balance Sheet, which is the fundamental engine of our growth in paper assets and the wealth of the one percent, Fed be praised.

Let's see if the jitters pass, or if tomorrow gives us another chance to test that lower trend support.

Have a pleasant evening.





12 March 2014

Ted Butler: Why Not Just Close the COMEX


This column tonight from Ted Butler at Butler Research set me back a bit. It would be like one of the most die hard economist Fed watchers, after forty years in the business, coming out and saying that the Fed has gone so far off the rails that we ought to just shut it down.

It is a subscription only site, and so I cannot do justice to his reasoning which was far more extensive and complete than what I excerpt here.

Rather than closing the COMEX, engaging in some substantial reform and bringing it back to its original purposes would be preferable. But in the current climate of financial corruption and regulatory weakness it is not practically achievable, at least not yet.

Here is just a snippet of what Ted had to say.
"Not to be delusional, I have little expectation that the COMEX will be closed; but I think the idea has merit and should be considered. In fact, the vast majority of market participants and society as a whole would benefit from a closing of the COMEX for the simple reason that all the commodities traded there have been manipulated in price. The simplest way of ending these manipulations is to shut down the mechanism of manipulation...

Since it can be demonstrated and proven thru CFTC data that prices are set on the COMEX with no input from the real world producers or consumers, society as a whole would benefit if the COMEX didn’t exist. This is a private club that has no legitimacy in dictating to the world what prices should be.

The COMEX has undermined and replaced the free market law of supply and demand with a phony price-setting mechanism never intended when Congress authorized regulated futures trading. The COMEX is not functioning as intended and it’s hard to see what might change that. As such, it should be shut down."

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - In Search of The Yellow King


"The very banality and innocence of the first act only allowed the blow to fall afterwards with more awful effect.”

Robert W. Chambers, The King In Yellow


"History is made up of the bad actions of extraordinary men and woman. All the most noted destroyers and deceivers of our species, all the founders of arbitrary governments and false religions, have been extraordinary people; and nine tenths of the calamities that have befallen the human race had no other origin than the union of high intelligence with low desires."

Thomas Babington Macaulay

Gold 'popped' today, and took out the overhead resistance, running up to 1370 before pulling back a bit.  Now that it stuck a close, the gold bulls will have to find some level of defensible support, so we can see where the necklines really are. 

Silver really has not caught a spark yet, and when we see that we will know that gold and silver are both starting to get the bears on the run.   Those who willfully ignore the unfolding currency war are probably undervaluing their risks.

So let's see what happens, and what the days ahead may reveal.  I think there is a sickness in the valuations of things, and the ways in which money is being distributed, and wealth is quietly stolen.  There are some ugly creatures running through the underbrush and the darkness, as men make beasts of themselves to avoid the pain of being human.

Time does not always make things clear, and the truth can be hidden for long periods of time.  But there are clues, and facts enough,  for those with enquiring minds, who do not avert their eyes from the facts, fearing their implications.    Things may have seemed difficult before, but the real revelations seem as though they are yet to come.

Have a pleasant evening.







)

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Ship of Fools


Not much in the way of news, unless you want to count the crisis in the Ukraine.

It is easy to be puzzled by the news of the world. The US president met with his fellow from the Ukraine today, the new prime ministers. You would think that the US is upholding a democratically elected government against the proposed referendum in the Crimea, and not a government put into power by a violent coup d'état, the kind which if it had occurred in the US would have been met by significant force. This is not to say that the government in the Ukraine had been a good one. It is just that the means by which it was displaced make some of the things which we are hearing seem a bit-- hollow.

Oh well, things are so cloudy these days.  The mainstream media is throwing a lot of chum into troubled waters.

The rest of the economic news is a bit thin. Not much on the plate for the US this week, except perhaps a little towards the week's end. Next week we get to hear from the FOMC, and most likely from their new leader Janet Yellen. The hearings for confirmation of Stanley Fisher at Fed vice-chair approach.

The news from China seems troubled, with all sorts of bubble talk, and dire forecasts of a collapse. Bill Ackerman has finally persuaded someone in the government to investigate Herbalife.  Huzzah!

But corporate earnings are done for now, and the recovery slogs on, with Morgan Stanley declaring that semi-stagnation and misery are the new normal, so you may as well get used to it.  Things could be a lot worse.   Think about the next Presidential election and what choices might be offered.   That is a likely appetite suppressant.

I see where it can now be a crime to attend a peaceful protest in Victoria, Australia. 

At some point, I think the ruling class  for the English speaking peoples might need to get a bigger boat.

Have a pleasant evening.






)

11 March 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Coiling, Coiling, Coiling


Gold and silver are in the sideways chop that I suggested that they would find just underneath the big overhead resistance here.

I am not going to waste time giving out the particulars of the various measuring objectives if we break out now. We can wait to see if we do get a breakout and what character it might assume.

I have included a close up of the current formation on the gold chart, which is part of three inverse head and shoulders formations, with the largest being part of a double bottom. If the neckline is broken and then survives a retest it is considered 'working' and the minimum objective is the distance from the head to neck.

In this case the necks could start falling like dominoes, although they are not considered valid necklines until they 'work.'   We are in a tough slog now, but the battle royale will be fought around 1420.

The objective of the biggest, the double bottom, is $300 from $1490.  Interestingly enough, $1790 takes gold back to where it originally failed, at the top of the current chart's big 'cup.'

Silver on the weekly is also in a big double bottom formation that targets $30+ if it works, that is, it breaks the neckline and survives any retest.

There was the usual small volume in and out of the Comex but nothing of great importance. Comex is falling back into the scenery.

Have a pleasant evening.






SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Seems Almost Like the Summer Doldrums


As Jesse Livermore once said, 'Never short a dull market.'

And this market is dullsville. If something sets it rolling downhill, it could go some way before it hits anything solid.

But, the Fed seems to have their backs.







NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds


The Sprott Silver Trust is getting low on cash as a percentage of its overall assets.  This time last year it had about $14 million in cash.

Typically they would look to do a secondary offering to add silver and cash.  That tends to temporarily lower their premium to NAV.





10 March 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Is Today Just Another Day in the Matrix


If someone strangles the canary, does that mean that the mine is now completely safe and risk free?

Neo: What does that mean?

Cypher: It means fasten your seat belt Dorothy, because Kansas is going bye-bye.

The Matrix

Have a pleasant evening.




SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Ho Hum


As boring days go, today was a fairly boring day.

Given all the florid headlines about the confrontation in the Ukraine, the markets shook it all off.

Have a pleasant evening.




 

09 March 2014

Ukraine Gold Reserves Said To Be Put On Plane For Safekeeping in the US

 
Depiction on the Arch of Titus of the gold Menorah being
taken from the Temple to Rome after the sack of Jerusalem
This is a story based on a report out of the Ukraine. Obviously I do not know yet if it is accurate. The information coming out of the Ukraine and Crimea should be sifted carefully, no matter what the source. 

I find this one hard to believe.  I am informed by highly reliable people that no one cares about gold anymore. And very important analysts claim that transporting many tonnes of gold (Ukraine is said to have about 33 tonnes) is very difficult, and so unwieldy and fraught with peril that it must be a multiyear project.

But if the Ukraine's gold was taken away for safekeeping, it may be so safe that they will never see it again for a long time.  Just ask Germany.

Newswire 24
Ukrainian gold reserves loaded on an unidentified transport aircraft in Kiev
By Marcus Brooks

According to the iskra-news.info last night ,Ukrainian gold reserves (40 sealed boxes) were loaded on an unidentified transport aircraft in Kiev’s Borispol airport. The board took off immediately.

A source in the Ukrainian government confirmed that the transfer of the gold reserves of Ukraine to the United States was ordered by the acting PM Arseny Yatsenyuk.

So my guess is, that is if indeed this report is true it either means the new ruling elite have stolen the gold bullion or perhaps their is a legitimate fear of the Russians taking possession of this bullion, whatever the facts, it still looks very shady indeed.

Conclusion

Official narrative: gold bullion is going to USA (maybe to reassure the Germans their gold is in safe hands, after all the despite numerous requests from the German Govt The Feds have not given access for them to even view their Gold Bullion) . Real narrative: probably to Switzerland where it is divided between Yulia Tymoshenko and her cronies.

Here is a machine translation of the story in Russian from Iskra News:

Tonight from Borispol in the U.S. strartoval plane with gold reserves of Ukraine

As our site workers airport "Borispol", this night in 2-00, with the designated airport runway started unregistered transport plane ...

According to the staff "Boryspil", before it came to the airport four collector car and two cargo minibus Volkswagen, while , all arriving truck license plate missing. Car pulled out of about fifteen people in black uniforms, masks and body armor. Some of them were armed with machine guns. These people have downloaded the plane more than forty heavy boxes ... After that, some mysterious men arrived too entered the plane.

All loading was carried out in a huge hurry. After unloading the car without license plates immediately left the runway, and the plane took off on an emergency basis ... Those who saw all this mysterious "special operation" airport officials immediately notified the administration of "Boryspil", from which received a strong recommendation "not to meddle in other people's affairs ..."

Later, in received call back one of the senior officials of the former Ministry of income and fees, which reported that, according to him, tonight, on the orders of one of the "new leaders" of Ukraine in the United States has been taken all the gold reserves in Ukraine ...

08 March 2014

Third World America: 'The Greatest Health Care System In the World'


“Propaganda serves more to justify ourselves than to convince others; and the more reason we have to feel guilty, the more fervent our propaganda.”

Eric Hoffer


“It is a far, far better thing to have a firm anchor in nonsense, than to put out on the troubled seas of thought.”

John Kenneth Galbraith
 


07 March 2014

Robert Johnson: New Perspectives For Economics


Some of Johnson's remarks are extraordinarily insightful.

I enjoyed his comments on the modern preoccupation with modeling. But I do think his looking back to the Thirty Years War for the trend towards abstract theory over the empirical method in general is a bit of a stretch. But it was kind of cool to think about it.

Quite the opposite, much of the rest of science is very much more empirically oriented, and based on experimentation, replication, and testing. Perhaps he intended that economics be considered more as a social philosophy, and that this trend is particular to that area of knowledge, and I did not understand this.

I think that economics had draped itself with the math and rigor of science, but bent over backwards to say those things that were politically expedient, depending on one's particular biases and opinions. The intricacy and jargon were there to provide the accoutrements, the flames and smoke and loud pronouncements, that make ordinarily people tremble before those modern Wizards of Oz.

He is otherwise rather kind towards those in his profession who, when the predators appeared on the horizon, swam out to meet the boats and came ashore with them in their plundering. Not all of course, but far too many, and for far too long. Where was the peer review and the discipline of the profession? While the coins were flowing, it seemed as though it was 'go along to get along' with the proper professional courtesy. Perhaps the tone was set for the trade by the Fed under Alan Greenspan.

I believe that his comments are primarily directed towards the economics profession in the US and England, who have taken point on the modeling bandwagon and have given themselves over to viewing reality through the prism of abstractions, shaped top down by ideology.





Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - This Must Have Been a Non-Farm Payrolls Friday


"Behind the concrete, the visible events, behind all the objective, logical considerations, we find that which goes beyond the merely rational: the struggle against evil, against the servants of the antichrist.

Everywhere and always demonic powers lurk in the dark, waiting for the moment when man is weak; when of his own volition he leaves his place in Creation, as founded for him by God in freedom; and when he yields to the forces of evil, he separates himself from the powers of a higher order; after voluntarily taking the first step, he is driven on and on to the next and to the next, at a furiously accelerating rate."

Die Weiße Rose, Fourth Leaflet, Munich, 1942

Gold and silver were both hit rather hard this morning on the release of the better than expected Non-Farm Payrolls report. What a surprise!

What was perhaps most interesting is that the rally in stocks did not stick, with equities falling off after a quick 'three step' move in the futures, and with the SP 500 and Dow coming back to unchanged in the afternoon. The NDX never did recover and put a second day in the red.

And while gold fell down to the support of its tightening symmetrical triangle, it would not stay down, even in the non-active month of March which is seasonally poor for the precious metal.

I kind of enjoyed how the markets behaved so well, or at least as I had expected they would do. It gives me a little hope that this is not all randomness perhaps.

Note:  I had linked to a story earlier this evening about a large gold purchase by Northwestern Life that turns out to be dated, even though the link shows today's date. Someone sent it to me after the close and it took a little while for me to see the error.  It has been removed.

Let's see how events go over the weekend,  to find if the tensions increase or subside. I have been looking for articles that seem to illuminate the situation a bit, and will continue to post what I find useful for my own inquiries.   The fog of conflict descended very quickly.

I remember you, as I hope that you will sometimes remember me.

Have a pleasant weekend.






SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Men at Work, and Hail The Recovery™


"What a piece of work is a man! How noble in reason, how infinite in faculty! In form and moving how express and admirable! In action how like an angel, in apprehension how like a god! The beauty of the world. The paragon of animals."

William Shakespeare, Hamlet, Act II, Sc 2

The Non-Farm Payrolls Report came in to the high side this morning with a headline number of 175,000 jobs added.

Stocks did a three step zig zag and then tended to sell off, with a recovery to unchanged in the afternoon, except for the real world heavy NASDAQ 100, which put a second day into the red.

How come? I think it was because once you dug into the details of the report things were a bit disjointed, with unemployment rising, and the average work week declining, in spite of the 'better than expected' jobs increase. The seasonality and birth-death model seemed a bit dodgy from my spreadsheet, but who am I to judge?

Have a pleasant weekend.

To Understand the News, Follow the Money. To Follow the Money, Follow the Economic Hitmen


"Plunderers of the world, when nothing remains on the lands to which they have laid waste by wanton thievery, they search out across the seas. The wealth of another region excites their greed; and if it is weak, their lust for power. Nothing from the rising to the setting of the sun is enough for them.

Among all others only they are compelled to attack the poor as well as the rich. Robbery, rape, and slaughter they falsely call empire; and where they create a desolate wasteland, they call it peace."

Tacitus, Calgacus' Speech from Agricola

Remembering this may help one to understand some of the things that happen that otherwise may seem to make no sense.   In the pursuit of profit, their hypocrisy and disregard for justice and human life knows no bounds.

I will let you in on a little secret.  Not always, but the worst of them have a 'tell.'  You have to look at the long record of a person's action and mode of acting to assess this.  Are they plain and straightforward, or highly political and evasive in their motives.  Do they often say one thing, and yet do another.  If so, then this is their 'tell.'

The most cynical player will accuse and denounce their adversaries of the exact things that they have in mind, their precise motives, but first, and aggressively so with high indignation.  But their own actions will appear to be without principled cohesion, that is, principles but selectively applied.  Look for the inconsistencies, and if they are there, you know the type of hypocrite with whom you are dealing.

I think they do this because it defeats the ability of their opponent to accuse them of the very things that they themselves are doing.   I have seen this in company politics to geo-political squabbles, over and over.  Bald faced misdirection is almost standard fare these days of spin and propaganda in domestic politics. 

Telling the truth is considered to be naive, embarrassingly clumsy, an automatic disqualification from power. It is almost as bad as bending your knee to the power of God rather than the will to power, when we would all be gods.  Or caring for the poor and the disadvantaged, those disgusting, useless creatures.  Contemptible weakness!  Such are the times.

There is nothing quite so tempting as a poorly managed country with exploitable resources and assets like food, energy, and people.  And if it is well located for other geopolitical purposes, then so much the better.   Winning.




“The enormous gap between what US leaders do in the world and what Americans think their leaders are doing is one of the great propaganda accomplishments of the dominant political mythology.”

Michael Parenti

06 March 2014

US Government Officials Said To Be Working On 'Media-Leak' Legislation To Impose Censorship


Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

In case you had not seen this, it is on the news wire from  United Press International.

It seems that if this legislation is real, and is enacted, and that is a big IF, then all a government bureaucrat will have to do is to refuse to permit disclosure on topics that it considers to be too important for even the media to know.  And they will be able to exercise a rather effective censorship over a compliant press. 

But I think we can be confident that the government of any political party, or any future President, can be trusted to never abuse this power to gag the Press to cover up their mistakes, scandals, or extra-constitutional activities.

We will have to trust them.  Because we won't know if they are abusing that power because the information that they are will be .. classified.

Perhaps a secret independent court can be set up to review their decisions.  All of its decisions will be, of course, classified.

I wonder if the students at Georgetown understood the implications of what their privileged ears were hearing, or if they even cared.

I wonder how many other bloggers, who are so often preoccupied with freedom, will understand this and pick it up, or if they are just afraid, or even care.

No wonder. Audacious oligarchy, indeed.

UPI
NSA chief hints at 'media-leak' legislation
By Aileen Graef
March. 5, 2014

Journalists and press freedom have taken a hit from the government since Edward Snowden leaked NSA documents to the Guardian, Washington Post, and New York Times.

WASHINGTON, March 5 (UPI) -- National Security Agency chief Gen. Keith Alexander was speaking at Georgetown University when he hinted that government officials were working on "media-leak legislation" that would presumably restrict the press from publishing any documents regarding national security that the government doesn't approve for disclosure.

The NSA director said that the U.K. was right in detaining David Miranda, partner of journalist Glenn Greenwald who first published the Snowden files at the Guardian, on terrorism charges and seizing all of his files. Alexander said the actions were justified in the interests of national security.

"Journalists have no standing with national security issues," said Alexander. "They don't know how to weigh the fact of what they're giving out and saying, is it in the nation's interest to divulge this. My personal opinion: These leaks have caused grave, significant, and irreversible damage to our nation and to our allies. It will take us years to recover."

He went on to say that they are making headway on "media-leak legislation." No one knows exactly what this legislation is, but it will more than likely face resistance from journalists who would like to see full freedom of the press maintained under the First Amendment.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Non-Farm Payrolls Tomorrow


Gold rallied back up into the very stiff resistance between 1350 and 1360. It is apparent on the chart.

Silver is still meh. It will get some jets on a breakout, being the high beta monster that it is, but it seems incapable of taking the spotlight from gold. It is not so much a safe haven play, which is what seems to be driving gold in the short term.

Typically we see shenanigans on the Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Stocks have finished positive on the last 10 occasions. Is there a message in this for gold? 


I think it depends on international developments. Gold has not been moving reliably with or against stocks, and the moves against the dollar are simplistic if you factor out the sheer pricing bias.  

I am preferring to watch the charts here.   Predicting the short term movements in markets dominated by a few large players who are operating in secrecy with high leverage is not particularly rewarding, except in the fevered imaginations of the punters and their latest toys for predicting market moves. 

It is a little funny to see they grab some system or prognosticator as their new messiah, and then discard them once again as they prove to have feet of clay.  Such is life as a school of probability.

March is typically not a seasonally good month for the precious metals, and as an inactive month on Comex unlikely to provoke any supply concerns.  There was no bullion movement in or out of the warehouses yesterday.

The masters of the universe are flying high.  How high, and how close to the sun, is the question.

Have a pleasant evening.







SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Blue Skies


Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow.  The market is expecting 163K jobs added on the headline.  It is hard to tell how they will spin a big miss or a number on the high side.  I am looking for a potential head fake in the futures, maybe a typical 'three step' before they settle on something for the morning.  As for the afternoon, who can say?

The equity market has ended positive on 14 of the last 15 Non-Farm Payroll Reports. 

I picked up a little volatility just on the if come.  But actually shorting this market looks like a long shot, even if you call it a contrarian move, primarily based on monetary expansion.   

If you have not noticed, being a bear in an asset bubble backed by the Fed put is not a constructive profession.  I have paid for a graduate degree in that subject.   Being servants to power, their hypocrisy knows no bounds.

My real play is now in precious metals for the intermediate and long term as you may have gathered.  It gives me something to do while watching the currency war unfold.

Have a pleasant evening.









The State of Modern Economics and Politics: The Credibility Trap


“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

Upton Sinclair


"A hypocrite despises those whom he deceives, but has no respect for himself. He would make a dupe of himself too, if he could."

William Hazlitt


"Tyranny is always better organized than freedom."

Charles Peguy

And its faithful servants often have more titles and access to power as well, common born, otherwise undistinguished, but uncommonly well pedigreed, having been confirmed by Mammon to all that this entitles: money, success, fame, glamour.

The single biggest impediment to reform is that no one in the status quo wishes to admit that they were wrong. And especially if they were wrong having been prompted by considerations of personal gain, reputation, or career. This is what is known as the credibility trap. Those who can best effect a reform cannot even admit to the problem, because they fear that they themselves are in some way complicit in it, either by their actions or their silence.

The fear of losing credibility prevents those in power from doing anything to effectively reform the system once it has gone off the rails. Credibility is confidence, a faith in someone or something based on accomplishment and credentials. And those who have been in power may be implicated in the disaster, either directly or indirectly, and suffer a loss of loss of wealth, reputation, or power.

This essay by John Kay excerpted below is a nice summary of the problem we have in modern economics. It may be a bit dry for the layman, but it touches on the distortions that crept in to economic thought and their intellectual sources, and in particular the operational rather than political means.

I do not think it was entirely unintentional.  Economics has served to distort public policy and blind people to their unfolding reality. Investments in think tanks and universities encouraged and paid for misleading reports and studies, draping propaganda in the faux garments of respectable academia and science.

How else can one explain the general acceptance of the 'the efficient market hypothesis,' the fallacy of which is palpably obvious to anyone who has ever driven on a modern expressway or gone to a major sale at a department store? 

People are not always serenely rational, acting for the greatest good, limited in their appetites, and respectfully self-regulating.  And what makes this belief especially pernicious it that those who have the most  power are often the worst, because this is how they have obtained that power in the first place.  In the light of history, such a belief is madness.  And yet this unmistakably utopian theory went unchallenged, shaping public policy for decades, and still lingers on as a major political influence.

Oh no, they say.  You are confused.  It is not the individual that is perfect, but the market, which is a collection of individuals all balancing each other out, achieving perfectibility.

Well, another name for a large collection of people is a mob, and we certainly have seen the effects of mob rule in our financial markets since this great Enlightenment burst forth, of the natural wisdom, of people acting in herds, being driven by jackals.  Brilliant.

This is certainly not the first time this sort of thing has happened. Medicine has a rather checkered history in service to power. These types of distortions can of course cut both ways, and science has been used to justify abuses from all ends of the political spectrum.

Economics and other sciences are no fair substitutes for a priori objectives in the creation of sound public policy. Policy is not an outcome of economic science, but rather, policy is set and renewed from first principles, a commitment to certain ideals and common objectives. Economics and other sciences play a role in shaping the details of implementation. But we must revisit and determine the effect which those details have on the achievement of first principles which are the sine qua non.

In other words, economics does not dictate anything.  It suggests differences and forecasts outcomes.  But there is no economic principle that says that we must disregard the role of regulation and the fostering of well being in society because the market dictates that it must be done.  This is sophistry and rubbish.

Unfortunately we must sift all the opinions and inputs to policy decisions with care, and especially the assumptions on which they are based, because the professions have shown a willingness to misrepresent, distort, and even lie for money and power.

One must always come back to first principles, to some notion of what they, and by extension their community, wish to be. Is the first principle of the US the maximizing of profit? By what measures, and to whom? Or is it something else again.

This philosophical notion that the end of all human activity is the maximization of profit is one of the most pernicious assumptions in all history.  It is the antithesis of all that is human.

This is the question that the protesters of Occupy Wall Street were asking in their own inarticulated way. People of the status quo say, 'What do they want? What is their desire?' No, it is the protesters who are asking the question of those comfortable people in their power. 'What is this madness?  Where are we going?'  If they have any statement to make, it is that 'The Emperor has no clothes.'  Their protests are wasted on those who are barely self-aware, much less willfully blind.

And since the modern day Emperors do not wish to, or cannot, answer the people plainly and honestly, having only their tired old lies, they become uncomfortable and afraid. Instead they ignore, ridicule, and silence the question, offering new lies and scapegoats, claiming that all is well. And it is, at least for them.

If the people are ignored and abused long enough they will stop asking questions and begin to make demands and push them forward, and then it may be too late as these sort of social movements tend to obtain their own momentum.

Economics is a discredited science at the moment. A few practitioners sold its soul and honor to a small group of wealthy ideologues while the great majority remained silent. But certainly no more discredited than the doctors who served the policies of euthanasia or the Russian abuse of psychiatric wards. It is sad but true, that when the destroyers of civilization appear on the horizon, the quantitative sciences and their purveyors, the professionals, are often seen swimming out to meet the boat.

Those who promoted false theories and dreadfully ineffective policies in return for power and money  are still at work, and the results of their betrayal of conscience will be measured in piles of dead bodies, and a mass of broken dreams.

The answer is not to turn away from knowledge, and embrace a hatred of science like a new crop of passionate know-nothings.  Science has its proper place. But it is not at the top, dictating outcomes in the social world like the answers to irrefutable equations. And it is especially good that we remember this when science is abused, and used to justify cruelty, selfishness, and plunder.

"The preposterous claim that deviations from market efficiency were not only irrelevant to the recent crisis but could never be relevant is the product of an environment in which deduction has driven out induction and ideology has taken over from observation.

The belief that models are not just useful tools but also are capable of yielding comprehensive and universal descriptions of the world has blinded its proponents to realities that have been staring them in the face. That blindness was an element in our present crisis, and conditions our still ineffectual responses.

Economists – in government agencies as well as universities – were obsessively playing Grand Theft Auto while the world around them was falling apart."

John Kay, An Essay on the State of Economics

This intellectual and financial decline traces back perhaps to the closing of the gold window by Nixon, and the rise of the willful relativism of value with fiat money.  But more important is the subsequent rise of the financialization industry, under the flag of efficient markets and deregulation and globalization.

The country once again became gripped by a preoccupation with aggregating wealth from the real economy by manipulating paper. Not only were there real direct effects, but there were profound long term effects through the malinvestment and diversion of strategic resources.   And the absolute worst of it has come from the  most powerful corporations and those who serve them.

As Satyajit Das puts it in a book interview:
"The best and brightest went into finance because... it paid better than every other profession. So we had this whole generation of people — who would have been great scientists, great doctors, great creators of other things — attracted to a business which ultimately only provided, to a substantial degree, toxic waste. And that is the tragedy of our time. ... It was this diversion of enormous amounts of talent."
People can point to select innovations like Facebook and the iPod, but in fact America's technical and physical infrastructure has been distorted, and has languished, and is in decline, because public policy unleashed the financiers, the money magicians, and then became captive to them. And they have willfully led the country into a lingering period of stagnation.  The private sector serves none but itself, and often shockingly narrow and short term interests.

I hope to have no illusions.  Those who give themselves over to the dark impulses of their imagination often prove more impervious to reason with each victory. 

No one knows how this will turn out yet. There is always hope against forces that seem far too powerful at the moment. And tyranny is always better organized than freedom.

Some inquiring student may read this little morsel of thought, and if his mind is provoked, a flickering light of truth will be struck from that spark, about the corruptibility of even the best, about the dark hearts of predators who walk among us, and about the danger of too much power in too few hands.

If not now, then perhaps in some better tomorrow. Nothing is ever wasted in God's economy.

This is a reprise of an essay originally published in 7 October 2011, with some minor editing.


And if you will not learn from goodness and reason, then learn from this:
From the foldings of its robe, it brought two children; wretched, abject, frightful, hideous, miserable. They knelt down at its feet, and clung upon the outside of its garment.

"Oh Man! look here. Look, look down here!" exclaimed the Ghost.

They were a boy and a girl. Yellow, meagre, ragged, scowling, wolfish but prostrate too in their humility. Where graceful youth should have filled their features out, and touched them with its freshest tints, a stale and shrivelled hand, like that of age, had pinched and twisted them and pulled them into shreds. Where angels might have sat enthroned, devils lurked, and glared out menacing. No change, no degradation, no perversion of humanity, in any grade through all the mysteries of wonderful creation, has monsters half so horrible and dread.

Scrooge started back, appalled. Having them shewn to him in this way, he tried to say, they were fine children, but the words choked themselves, rather than be parties to a lie of such enormous magnitude.

"Spirit! are they yours?" Scrooge could say no more.

"They are Man's," said the Spirit, looking down upon them. "And they cling to me, appealing from their fathers. This boy is Ignorance. This girl is Want. Beware them both, and all of their degree, but most of all beware this boy, for on his brow I see that written which is Doom, unless the writing be erased. Deny it!" cried the Spirit, stretching out its hand towards the City. "Slander those who tell it ye! Admit it for your factious purposes, and make it worse! And bide the end!"

Charles Dickens, A Christmas Carol