There is talk that European banks may be sitting on £16.3 trillion of toxic assets and could suffer massive losses.
There is a business decision to be made as well as a policy decision.
The prescription for a cure must include the option to nationalize, liquidate, investigate, and prosecute. And above all to act not out of fear, or of vengance, but with a practical and comprehensive justice.
UK Telegraph
European bank bail-out could push EU into crisis
By Bruno Waterfield in Brussels
3:50PM GMT 11 Feb 2009
A bail-out of the toxic assets held by European banks' could plunge the European Union into crisis, according to a confidential Brussels document.
“Estimates of total expected asset write-downs suggest that the budgetary costs – actual and contingent - of asset relief could be very large both in absolute terms and relative to GDP in member states,” the EC document, seen by The Daily Telegraph, cautioned.
"It is essential that government support through asset relief should not be on a scale that raises concern about over-indebtedness or financing problems.”
The secret 17-page paper was discussed by finance ministers, including the Chancellor Alistair Darling on Tuesday.
National leaders and EU officials share fears that a second bank bail-out in Europe will raise government borrowing at a time when investors - particularly those who lend money to European governments - have growing doubts over the ability of countries such as Spain, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Britain to pay it back.
The Commission figure is significant because of the role EU officials will play in devising rules to evaluate “toxic” bank assets later this month. New moves to bail out banks will be discussed at an emergency EU summit at the end of February. The EU is deeply worried at widening spreads on bonds sold by different European countries.
In line with the risk, and the weak performance of some EU economies compared to others, investors are demanding increasingly higher interest to lend to countries such as Italy instead of Germany. Ministers and officials fear that the process could lead to vicious spiral that threatens to tear both the euro and the EU apart.
“Such considerations are particularly important in the current context of widening budget deficits, rising public debt levels and challenges in sovereign bond issuance,” the EC paper warned.
11 February 2009
European Bank Bailouts Could Precipitate a Government Crisis
10 February 2009
The Gold Bull In Retrospect
"Last, the short-term strokes. You already knew this anyway. We’re just repeating it for drill. The technical areas of support and resistance are self-apparent. Gold is Mother Nature. Gold is Father Time. Parents who we believe will never let us down."
SP Hourly Chart Update II for 10 February
We broke the first level of short term support on the prior SP Futures Hourly chart and dropped quickly to the diagonal trendline around 828 where the bulls are trying to find a footing.
Although we still have some short positions for the 'daytrade' we have hedged them out now and are looking to buy weakness in the metals and oil.
Careful, since if we slip here we go down to test that support around 822 with some intermediate support and possibly the prior lows around 806.
Generally, we think the banks and traders are crabby that Tim didn't give them their fix, and are showing their displeasure. Therefore on 'context' and not the charts we'd look for 820 and even more probably 806 to hold. They are cranky but not yet openly self-destructive.
Do not rule out a snap back rally to stay within the trend, beartrap style.
If the Obama Administration would like to do something constructive in the markets Tim should announce some trading reforms like reinstatement of the uptick rule, a vigorous enforcement of the rules against naked shorting for all stocks, and aggregate position limits on commodities, But that is not the style of the compromiser. Something has to be done to restrain the blatant speculation while the banking system is sorted out and the investment banks die a slow death but are still capable of throwing their weight around. Recall that early in his Administration John F. Kennedy made a point of forcing Big Steel to very publicly roll back their price increases when they tested his resolve.
"They pull a knife, you pull a gun. They send one of yours to the hospital, you send one of theirs to the morgue."And presumably he would abstain or at least be very discreet with respect to high priced hookers crossing state lines.
