SP Weekly and Monthly Charts Updated at Noon

The question one must ask is whether this is a technical bounce off a short term bottom, or the beginning of somthing more sustained.

Barton Biggs of Traxis Partners is saying today that he expects a thirty to fifty percent rally off this bottom. His reasoning is historic comparison off lows this severe.

If sustained, is this a genuine economic recovery or another monetary reflation and resultant bubble in financial assets.

The charts speak to this, not definitively, but with sufficient weight to be important. Yet another bubble sets us up for a great cascade fall down to 545, with a potential final bottom as low as 380.

The numbers may start to be skewed and distorted on the chart if a more serious monetary inflation in the dollar begins. The commodities and the quality of earnings in the SP 500 will be the 'tell.'

But make no mistake. The Fed and the Obama Administration are firmly committed to monetary inflation and a weaker dollar as another short term cure for the economy.

If the government does not make the fundamental reforms to the financial system and economy to bring back a balance with real wealth creation, it is difficult to see how the dollar and the bond will emerge intact from the next bubble without a further devaluation of 50 percent at least.

The Net Asset Value of Certain Gold and Silver Trusts and ETFs

GLD and SLV generally trade at a slight discount to spot because of their management fes. They are also used for arbitrage plays.

The premium on GTU is substantial as a result of the recent rally in gold. Personally I would not buy it at that level of premium preferring other investments.

Here Comes Turbo Timmy's Troubled Toxic Asset Clearance Sale

Wall Street Journal
U.S. Sets Plan for Toxic Assets
By Deborah Solomon
March 21, 2009

WASHINGTON -- The federal government will announce as soon as Monday a three-pronged plan to rid the financial system of toxic assets, betting that investors will be attracted to the combination of discount prices and government assistance.

But the framework, designed to expand existing programs and create new ones, relies heavily on participation from private-sector investors. They've been the target of a virulent anti-Wall Street backlash from Washington in the wake of the American International Group Inc. bonus furor. As a result, many investors have expressed concern about doing business with the government in this climate -- potentially casting a cloud over the program's prospects.

The administration plans to contribute between $75 billion and $100 billion in new capital to the effort, although that amount could expand down the road.

The plan, which has been eagerly awaited by jittery investors, includes creating an entity, backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., to purchase and hold loans. In addition, the Treasury Department intends to expand a Federal Reserve facility to include older, so-called "legacy" assets. Currently, the program, known as the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF, was set up to buy newly issued securities backing all manner of consumer and small-business loans. But some of the most toxic assets are securities created in 2005 and 2006, which the TALF will now be able to absorb.

Finally, the government is moving ahead with plans, sketched out by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner last month, to establish public-private investment funds to purchase mortgage-backed and other securities. These funds would be run by private investment managers but be financed with a combination of private money and capital from the government, which would share in any profit or loss....

US Dollar Weekly Chart with Commitments of Traders