"I preferred her to scepters and thrones,
and I accounted wealth as nothing in comparison with her.
Neither did I compare any priceless gem to her,
because all gold is but a little sand in her sight,
and silver will be accounted as clay to her.
I loved her more than health and beauty,
and I chose to have her rather than light,
because her radiance never ceases.
All good things came to me along with her."
Wisdom 7:8-11
We had some profit-taking in the metals, and in short positions in equities today.
Let's see how things go next week.
I have to run now to take care of some errands while the sun is shining.
"No regulatory penalties, no criminal indictments for fraud, no clawbacks, no prohibitions of bonuses at least during early phase of financial market recovery, all of this sticks in my mind as unjustifiable— and imprudent, as it taught a lasting lesson that bankers had immunity."
Dr. Harald Malmgren
"At the recent market peak, the most reliable measures of U.S. equity market valuation (those best correlated w/actual subsequent long-term returns) were about 200% above (3 times) historical norms. No market cycle, not even 2002, 2009, has ended at valuations even half that level."
John Hussman
Yesterday I said:
"The 2770 level on the SP 500 Futures chart looks like an important support level. Below that the bulls will need to start taking Xanax if they break 2740 and stick a close below that."
The continuous contract SP 500 futures, which is what I watch and chart, failed to hold that support at 2770, and closed at 2747, after an intraday low at 2712, which is the diagonal support line from the previous correction lows.
As for big cap tech, after a plunge to test 6905 they managed to come off the lows and actually finish in the green around 7040
So at least for today the market stabilization crew can claim 'mission accomplished.'
The Dollar took a bit of a dive today, as the safe haven buying flocked to the bonds, sending yields lower, and to gold and silver which had the kind of bounce we have not seen in some time.
Gold finished near the upper band of its recent short term trading range. Now we have to 'break out' to keep it going higher from here.
Let's see how the wiseguys manage the markets going into the weekend.
As previously noted, a decent attempt to get the stocks back higher, after some possible doodling around down here near support is certainly possible.
I have not bothered to calculate the percent declines and Fibonacci retracement levels yet, as the current correction is still rather 'young.'
We are on the brink of earnings season once again, and those firms coming out and warning are being beaten rather soundly.
If stock buybacks are the main thing that the stock bulls can look forward to, then they are just delaying the inevitable.
"Since 2013 China continues to absorb physical gold from the rest of the world at a staggering pace. Worth noting is that gold imported into the Chinese domestic market is not allowed to be returned in the foreseeable future.
Because ownership and the disposition of these volumes of gold likely will be of great importance next time around the international monetary system is under stress, it’s well worth tracking China’s progress of imports – especially because the mainstream media and most consultancy firms are in denial of these events."
Koos Jansen, BullionStar
"Gold is unique among assets, in that it is not issued by any government or central bank, which means that its value is not influenced by political decisions or the solvency of one institution or another."
Salvatore Rossi, Chief of the Central Bank of Italy, 30 Sept 2013
"It's probably early days, but now might be the time to start taking precautions against a 2008 class event in the financial markets. I would suggest it might arrive anytime between now and July 2020. These sorts of things depend on the magnitude of any 'trigger event,' which is why it is so difficult to forecast with regard to specific dates. As time goes on the required force for a market moving event decreases until it takes very little to set that ball in motion."
Jesse, 24 July 2018
"Welcome to October, the month of unexpected falls from heights, and stock market tears."
Jesse, 1 October 2018
"The VIX futures were in contango today. That means that the nearer term months were at a higher value than the following months. Usually it is the other way around. backwardation, with the futures in the following months gradually increasing in price. This is a signal that a nearer term and disruptive spike in risk is being expected by a number of traders, and they are seeking protection from it.
If you look at the NDX futures chart below, you can see how every day for the past three days that the futures have slumped heavily lower, recovering a bit in the afternoon while Asia and Europe are asleep, only to drop sharply again the next day, and fail to completely recover.
Stocks may turn around and rally higher from here. But the risk for equities is pronounced."
Jesse, Monday, 8 October 2018
“We have been in a state of stagnation since 2008. We’re moving towards stagflation. It feels good right now but it’s a false dawn.”
Alan 'Bubbles' Greenspan
Ba da bing, ba da boom. Le voilà.
Stocks were down sharply on very heavy volumes. They went out near the lows of the day.
Today was the kind of day when you could almost feel your IQ start to decline from listening to the spokemodels and guest commentary on financial television— a 'contact high' of hubris and self-delusion.
We can always hope that our tax cut flush companies will start buying their own stocks again once earnings season is underway and they make their announcements.
We may get a decent attempt to rally back up some time, likely after some follow through to the downside. The ESF might take a shot at it tomorrow, but if these volumes keep distributing to the downside I don't think they have enough ammo to turn it around. They might have to wait for a capitulation first.
The 2770 level on the SP 500 Futures chart looks like an important support level. Below that the bulls will need to start taking Xanax if they break 2740 and stick a close below that.
If the market turns and puts a multi-day rally together, and starts approaching this last blow off top, and it fails, look out below.
Either way, there is most likely much worse to come with time. That we expect something different is remarkable, a genuine triumph of modern persuasion, the power of dark money, and old-fashioned demagoguery.
Need little, want less, love more. For those who abide in God abide in love, and love in them.
"In Brazil, a far-right presidential candidate, Jair Bolsonaro, came close in Sunday’s national election to winning the 50% of the vote needed to win without a run-off (he received 46.2%), and is now highly likely to prevail on October 28 against his opponent, the liberal Workers’ Party’s Fernando Haddad, who finished a distant second with 29%.
That result, by itself, is stunning, given that Bolsonaro is an undiluted, explicit authoritarian in the model of Duterte and Sisi – one could easily say 'fascist' even using the narrowest and most most rigorous sense of that term – who had been a fringe figure in politics for decades but is now poised to assume the presidency."
"We have now sunk to a depth at which the restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men. It is not merely that at present the rule of naked force obtains almost everywhere. Probably that has always been the case. Where this age differs from those immediately preceding it is that a liberal intelligentsia is lacking. Bully-worship, under various disguises, has become a universal religion."
George Orwell
"Through his first year in Germany [1933], Dodd had been struck again and again by the strange indifference to atrocity that had settled over the nation, the willingness of the populace and the moderate elements in the government to accept each new oppressive decree, each new act of violence, without protest...
Dodd continued to hope that the murders would so outrage the German public that the [Hitler] regime would fall, but as the days passed he saw no evidence of any such outpouring of anger
The controlled press, not surprisingly, praised Hitler for his decisive behaviour...In a letter to Hull, Dodd forecast an even more terroristic regime... 'The people hardly notice this complete coup d'etat. It takes place in silence...I would swear that millions upon millions have no idea what a monstrous thing has occurred.'"
Erik Larson, In The Garden of Beasts
It can only be hoped that American democracy will thoroughly realize, and this before it is too late, that fascism is not confined to any one nation or any one party; and it is to be hoped that it will succeed in overcoming the tendency toward dictatorial forms in the people themselves. Only time will tell whether the Americans will be able to resist the compulsion of irrationality or whether they will succumb to it.”
Wilhelm Reich, The Mass Psychology of Fascism
"He who makes a beast of himself gets rid of the pain of being a man."
Let us pray for those whose hearts are hardened against His grace and loving kindness by greed, fear, and pride, and the seductive illusion and crushing isolation of evil.
We pray that we all may experience the three great gifts of our Lord's suffering and triumph: repentance, forgiveness, and thankfulness. And in so doing, may we obtain abundant life, and with it the peace that surpasses all understanding.
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