07 September 2012

Pictures From A Non-Farm Payrolls Report



I did not see anything untoward in any of the factors which I check, including the seasonality adjustment and the birth-death model adjustment.

The unemployment rate is a fairly useless measure, as it continues to improve by dropping people from the labor force. The Labor Participation Rate is much more relevent. This shows a continuing decline to the lowest level in three decades.

The median wage is also a critical indicator too often overlooked.

The bottom line is that the US is continuing in a weak and somewhat fragile recovery following a financial catastrophe of a magnitude not seen since the late 1920's.  The result could have been much worse in the US.   If Hoover's principles had been applied once again to the US economy, things would have been very dark this time around indeed.  People overlook this.  They might still get another chance to see how destructive economic malpractice can be.  Europe may take a run at it.   The UK appears to be willing to have a go.

The current situation is not enhanced by the deadlock in Washington, particularly with the hard line obstructionism in Congress. We may as well call it that, because that is what it is.

Efficient market theory is a fraud, and further deregulation is little more than a license to steal. It is no coincidence that the gap between the wealthy few and the public is at levels not seen since the last Great Depression. This is the mark of a very unhealthy social economy, with a few big winners and lots of losers, a kleptocracy based not on merit but on position, power, and payoffs.  These distortions born of the will to power are always doomed to failure, and sometimes spectacular.

The corruption in the system acts like a huge tax on the real economy, diverting resources, labor, and investment away from productive activity and towards monopolies, cartels, and the fraudulent accumulation of wealth through the manipulation of financial assets, making money from money.

There will be no sustainable recovery until there is substantial, genuine reform of the financial and political systems, both of which have been tainted by big money and corporate power promoting a very narrow and self-servingly destructive agenda.

Agree or not, things will continue to get worse, even if in a long, dwindling cycle of decay and despair, until change comes. And it will come, one way or the other. And the longer it takes, the more volatile the outcome will be.







Sprott Physical Gold Trust *PHYS* Prices At 14.84 - PHYS YTD Performance


This offering will raise between $341,000,000 and $392,000,000 for additional purchases of gold bullion, taking it off the world market.  The final number depends on the actions of the underwriters with regard to their own allotment of 3,450,000 units at roughly 14.84.

The total raised would represent roughly 240,000 ounces of gold at $1740 per ounce.

Sprott Physical Gold Trust Prices Follow-on Offering of Trust Units In An Aggregate Amount of US$341,320,000

Sep 7, 2012

TORONTO, Sept. 7, 2012 /CNW/ - Sprott Physical Gold Trust (the "Trust") (NYSE: PHYS / TSX: PHY.U), a trust created to invest and hold substantially all of its assets in physical gold bullion and managed by Sprott Asset Management LP, announced today that it has priced its follow-on offering of 23,000,000 transferable, redeemable units of the Trust ("Units") at a price of US$14.84 per unit (the "Offering").

As part of the Offering, the Trust has granted the underwriters an over-allotment option to purchase up to 3,450,000 additional Units. The gross proceeds from the Offering will be US$341,320,000 (US$392,518,000 if the underwriters exercise in full the over-allotment option).

The Trust will use the net proceeds of the Offering to acquire physical gold bullion in accordance with the Trust's objective and subject to the Trust's investment and operating restrictions described in the prospectus related to the Offering. Under the trust agreement governing the Trust, the net proceeds of the Offering per unit must be not less than 100% of the most recently calculated net asset value per Unit of the Trust prior to, or upon determination of, pricing of the Offering...

Year-To-Date Comparison of the performance of gold and PHYS.


Year-To-Date Comparison of the performance of GTU and PHYS



06 September 2012

Sprott Physical Gold Trust Announces Follow-On Offering



The stock was down .31 after hours on this announcement. So much for the healthy premium.

Even though the funds will be used to purchase additional gold bullion and add a little cushion to the cash on hand, there is generally some game playing done by the underwriters who like to hedge (some might say 'front run') their over allotments.

PRESS RELEASE: Sprott Physical Gold Trust Announces Follow-on Offering of Trust Units
Thu Sep 06 16:04:24 2012 EDT

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Sept. 6, 2012) - Sprott Physical Gold Trust (the "Trust") (NYSE:PHYS)(TSX:PHY.U), a trust created to invest and hold substantially all of its assets in physical gold bullion and managed by Sprott Asset Management LP, announced today that it has launched a follow-on offering (the "Offering") of transferable, redeemable units of the Trust ("Units").

The Trust will use the net proceeds of the Offering to acquire physical gold bullion in accordance with the Trust's objective and subject to the Trust's investment and operating restrictions described in the prospectus related to the Offering. Under the trust agreement governing the Trust, the net proceeds of the Offering per unit must be not less than 100% of the most recently calculated net asset value per Unit of the Trust prior to, or upon determination of, pricing of the Offering.

The Units are listed on NYSE Arca and the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbols "PHYS" and "PHY.U", respectively. The Offering will be made simultaneously in the United States and Canada by underwriters led by Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets in the United States and RBC Capital Markets and Morgan Stanley in Canada...

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Metals Capped While the Stock Market Flies on Hot Money



Draghi lit the markets' fire with hot money pledges in Europe, but the metals were firmly capped.

This is standard operating procedure, especially on the day before a Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Intra-day commentary on single currency monetary theory and political organization here. It amazes me how few people seem to understand this. A single currency, which therefore dictates a single monetary policy, cannot span a political geography that does not have a tightly unified fiscal arrangement including transfer payments and revenue adjustments to accommodate regional conditions. Period.

This is why the push for a single world currency, while maintaining the promise of national independence, is a malignant myth of the would-be money masters.

Bill Gross says he prefers gold to bonds. Directionally correct, but his choice of investment instrument (GLD) is probably more risky than he realizes.




SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Mario Draghi Dit "Trois, Deux, Un, FEU"


The ADP employment report came in well this morning, all things considered.

But it was all about Mario Draghi and the ECB, and their pledge to buy short term sovereign bonds in a purportedly unlimited manner. Since the purchases will be done in the secondary market, and will be sterilized, there is thinking that the German court will find no objections when they meet on September 12.

No matter in what brand of paper you might wrap this fish, it still smells of monetization. And it is primarily designed to benefit the big banks, and not the ordinary European. So it will most likely fail without meaningful systemic reform.

This is just Bernanke, Italian style.

Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow.



Bill Gross: I Am Leaning to Gold over Bonds


Now that Draghi has joined with Bernanke in buying the short end of the curve, pushing rates to negative returns, gold looks quite a bit better in terms of risk and reward.

Gold thrives in an environment of negative bond returns.

And since no action is being taken to reform the unsustainable banking system and the broken real economy, we can expect this monetization, under whatever guise or names one may wish to apply, to continue until something breaks.

Barring a major outbreak of war or other draconian actions by governments, and a major liquidity selloff in the financial markets, gold seems to have upside to $3,000 or so, and perhaps more. But it may take some time to get there. There are no free markets in this period of extreme monetary experimentation.

As for silver, that is harder to predict, given the demand/destruction from its industrial character, and the long term investment deficit created by the suppression of price which discourages investment.

I don't really see the CFTC taking on JPM over their silver short manipulation, or HSBC in gold for that matter, since it is likely that the governments are involved as well. But stranger things have happened.

Some gold advocates of my acquaintance were complaining that Mr. Gross is looking at GLD rather than a straight up bullion purchase. I think that is a bit unrealistic given the size of his fund and the scope of the potential demand, not to mention his position in the 'financial establishment.' One must bear in mind, however, that when a whale like Bill Gross speaks, he is wearing a 50,000 watt megaphone compared to most. So we ought not to discount the importance of what he says.

And who knows, he may already be invested in GLD and is now talking his book.

But I share the distrust that some have of GLD and SLV except as a short term paper exercise. Any failure of those instruments due to malfeasance would provide a leg up for the metals that would be rather impressive.



Net Asset Value Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds


Mario Draghi pledged the ECB to 'unlimited' purchases of short term sovereign debt for any Eurozone country that requested such help, any objection from Germany notwithstanding apparently. There will be a court ruling in Germany over such matters on 12 September.

They are expected to rule in favor of this action because the purchase of troubled sovereign bonds will be done in the secondary market, rather than directly. This also provides a nice opportunity for the banks to 'front-run' the ECB.

I am wondering what if any 'conditions' a country might be expected to meet should they ask Draghi and the ECB for 'help.' That may be an overlooked detail.

The ECB has pledged to 'sterilize' any such market actions so that they will not provoke inflation. The purchasing will be done on the short end of the curve, 3 years and in, and the actions may serve to drive more private buying at the longer ends in search of positive yields. In some sense Draghi is just catching up to Bernanke.

But at the end of the day, this is monetization of sovereign debt for the sake of propping up a zombie banking system and failed political union.

I should add here a parenthetical remark, that the same dynamics that caused the faux union in Europe to fail under the policy strains of a single currency would happen on a much larger scale should the world adopt a single currency regime or a harder peg to the dollar.

One cannot have a single currency and monetary policy without a fully integrated political union, or a set of artificial barriers and supports that emulate transfer payments. One size rarely fits all.

As the economic health of a country ebbs and flows, this should be reflected in the strength and weakness of their national currency in a 'freely traded' marketplace. The only way to counteract this is by trade barriers and subsidies, or outright transfer payments.

This is a lesson that must be learned, or rather re-learned again, by the world apparently.

The equity market took off like a scalded cat, but gold and silver are being firmly capped with relatively modest gains. What else might one expect on the day before a Non-Farm Payrolls report?

The equity rally *might* be overdone a bit at 1430 on the SP 500, but a cautious man would not care to stand in front of it, except perhaps to hedge bullion positions and other long positions.

Still, the reality of the economy has not changed one bit, just another opportunity for hot money to chase risk. So a man of a speculative mind might begin to nibble on the skeptical side.




05 September 2012

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Russia Stockpiling Gold, Likely for a New Trading Currency



The markets in general paused before the ECB announcement tomorrow and the Non-Farm Payrolls number in the US on Friday.

Early today there was a violent 7.6 magnitude earthquake in Costa Rica, but fortunately the damage was contained, there were few deaths, and there were no tsunamis. This is good news.

FedEx warned last night which is an indication that the real economy is lagging. But in today's high powered money economy where the market is the economy, that may not matter in the short term. When the currency and the economy become disconnected, life can get wild on the tails of probability, and unlikely things can happen.

Why Is Russia Stockpiling Gold? - MarketWatch

Perhaps it is due to the effort by the BRICs to reconstitute the SDR, with some gold in the basket of currencies, as a major instrument for international trade when the US dollar falters as the world's reserve currency. It is the most important thing that no one is even discussing.

Big things are underway behind the scenes, the kind of sea change that everyone understands after the fact, but almost no one sees coming, especially those whose gaze is fixed from within deep wells of subjectivity.
"Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rise and fall, and you can foresee the future, too." Marcus Aurelius
The only certainty is change. Let's see what happens.





SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts



The markets paused before the ECB meeting tomorrow and the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.




God Bless You, Mr. Rosewater


"Noah and his brother George inherited from their pioneer father six hundred acres of farmland, land as dark and rich as chocolate cake, and a small saw factory that was nearly bankrupt. War came.

George raised a rifle company, marched away at its head.

Noah hired a village idiot to fight in his place, converted the saw factory to the manufacture of swords and bayonets, converted the farm to the raising of hogs. Abraham Lincoln declared that no amount of money was too much to pay for the restoration of the Union, so Noah priced his merchandise in scale with the national tragedy. And he made this discovery: Government objections to the price or quality of his wares could be vaporized with bribes that were pitifully small.

He married Cleota Herrick, the ugliest woman in Indiana, because she had four hundred thousand dollars. With her money he expanded the factory and bought more farms, all in Rosewater County. He became the largest individual hog farmer in the North. And, in order not to be victimized by meat packers, he bought controlling interest in an Indianapolis slaughterhouse. In order not to be victimized by steel suppliers, he bought controlling interest in a steel company in Pittsburgh. In order not to be victimized by coal suppliers, he bought controlling interest in several mines. In order not to be victimized by money lenders, he founded a bank.

And his paranoid reluctance to be a victim caused him to deal more and more in valuable papers, in stocks and bonds, and less and less in swords and pork. Small experiments with worthless papers convinced him that such papers could be sold effortlessly. While he continued to bribe persons in government to hand over treasuries and national resources, his first enthusiasm became the peddling of watered stock...

Noah and a few like him perceived that the continent was in fact finite, and that venal office-holders, legislators in particular, could be persuaded to toss up great hunks of it for grabs, and to toss them in such a way as to have them land where Noah and his kind were standing.

Thus did a handful of rapacious citizens come to control all that was worth controlling in America. Thus was the savage and stupid and entirely inappropriate and unnecessary and humorless American class system created. Honest, industrious, peaceful citizens were classed as bloodsuckers, if they asked to be paid a living wage.

And they saw that praise was reserved henceforth for those who devised means of getting paid enormously for committing crimes against which no laws had been passed. Thus the American dream turned belly up, turned green, bobbed to the scummy surface of cupidity unlimited, filled with gas, went bang in the noonday sun.

E pluribus unum is surely an ironic motto to inscribe on the currency of this Utopia gone bust, for every grotesquely rich American represents property, privileges, and pleasures that have been denied the many. An even more instructive motto, in the light of history made by the Noah Rosewaters, might be: Grab much too much, or you'll get nothing at all.

And Noah begat Samuel, who married Geraldine Ames Rockefeller. Samuel became even more interested in politics than his father had been, served the Republican Party tirelessly as a kingmaker, caused that party to nominate men who would whirl like dervishes, bawl fluent Babylonian, and order the militia to fire into crowds whenever a poor man seemed on the point of suggesting that he and a Rosewater were equal in the eyes of the law.

And Samuel bought newspapers, and preachers, too. He gave them this simple lesson to teach, and they taught it well: Anybody who thought that the United States of America was supposed to be a Utopia was a piggy, lazy, God-damned fool. Samuel thundered that no American factory hand was worth more than eighty cents a day. And yet he could be thankful for the opportunity to pay a hundred thousand dollars or more for a painting by an Italian three centuries dead. And he capped this insult by giving paintings to museums for the spiritual elevation of the poor. The museums were closed on Sundays...”

Kurt Vonnegut, God Bless You, Mr. Rosewater

7.6 Magnitude Earthquake In Costa Rica Triggers Pacific Basin Tsunami Warning


The initial tsunami watch for the Caribbean has been cancelled. The earthquake occurred 12 miles under the ocean on the Pacific side of Costa Rica.

Although the initial estimates of 7.9 magnitude were revised to 7.6, the warnings and watch for several countries in the Pacific rim are still in effect.

As always, listen to your official tsunami channels for updates and recommended actions.

NOSARA, Costa Rica (AP) — A powerful, magnitude-7.6 earthquake shook Costa Rica and a wide swath of Central America on Wednesday, collapsing some houses, blocking highways and causing panic, but there were no immediate reports of deaths.

The USGS said the 8:42 a.m. quake struck about 38 miles (60 kilometers) from the town of Liberia. It was centered about 25 miles (41 kilometers) below the surface. The magnitude initially was estimated at 7.9.

In the town of Hojancha near the epicenter, city official Kenia Campos said the quake knocked down some houses and landslides blocked two roads.

"So far, we don't have victims," she said. "People were really scared ... We have had moderate quakes but an earthquake (this strong) hadn't happened in more than 50 years."

There were no initial reports of damage or deaths in the capital of San Jose, said Douglas Salgado, a geographer with Costa Rica's National Commission of Risk Prevention and Emergency Attention.

Salgado said, however, officials were having problem accessing the earthquake zone or reaching people there and were flying over the area to assess damage to highways and other structures.

The earthquake didn't knock out phones or electricity in the capital 88 miles (141 kilometers) from the epicenter, Salgado said by telephone, but communications were down near the epicenter.

"There's chaos in San Jose because it was a strong earthquake of long duration," Salgado said. "It was pretty strong and caused collective chaos."

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 002
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1525Z 05 SEP 2012

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

THE EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE IS REDUCED TO 7.6 THE WARNING AREA IS REDUCED...THE WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...MEXICO...COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...
GUATEMALA AND PERU.

... A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

COSTA RICA / PANAMA / NICARAGUA

FOR ALL OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS BULLETIN... IT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY AT THIS TIME.

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 1442Z 05 SEP 2012
COORDINATES - 9.9 NORTH 85.5 WEST
DEPTH - 46 KM
LOCATION - OFF COAST OF COSTA RICA
MAGNITUDE - 7.6

Source: tsunami.gov




04 September 2012

Additional Material from IMPACT 2012 with Chris Hedges and Robert Johnson





You may watch the entire show from the beginning, including the performance group, here.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts


Jammed into some important levels of resistance now.

Let's see gold take out the psychologically important $1700 and stick it for the weekly close.

ECB meets on Thursday, non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, and the Democratic boogie woogie all week.




SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Macro Jitters


The ECB meets on Thursday, and the US Non-Farm Payrolls for August are on Friday.




Excerpts of Alleged Letter from Troika to Greece


This appeared today on the web at Zerohedge.  It is a letter purported to be from the Troika to Greece, with the appearance of a set of demands that was leaked by an anonymous source.

If it is legitimate, and that is a big 'if' given the sources, then it is a bit of an eye-opener, perhaps not so much in the terms themselves, but in the level of micro-managing the Troika wishes to impose on a purportedly sovereign people.

As you may recall the Troika are the European Commission (EC), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the European Central Bank (ECB).

From what I have read, the 'bailout' is really a bailout of the debt which is owed to the banks of France and Germany among others, incurred by corrupt administrations heavy with insiders and influenced by banks such as Goldman Sachs, much in the manner of Iceland, Ireland, and other peripheral countries.

The track record of the IMF in such proposed 'reforms' is a national devastation.

I do not believe at all that these measures are stable, practical, or given in good faith as a solution. In other words, they will be back for more. The capitulation on such draconian interference is the path to a parasitic existence, in the manner of the most servile type of colonialism.

Greece might well consider a default on the existing external debts, the issuance of a national currency, reforming the financial system, the imposition of immediate capital controls, democratic safeguards against the rise of extreme domestic elements, and self-sufficiency at any and all costs in the spirit of a war time economy of a nation under siege.

Area: Flexibility of labour arrangements

Measure: Increase flexibility of work schedules:

  • Increase the number of maximum workdays to 6 days per week for all sectors.

  • Set the minimum daily rest to 11 hours.

  • Delink the working hours of employees from the opening hours of the establishment.

  • Eliminate restrictions on minimum/maximum time between morning and afternoon shifts.

  • Net Asset Value Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds



    Gold is still outpacing silver, and PHYS has climbed to a higher level of premium, levels which are a little on the high side.

    The gold/silver ratio has declined to 52.

    The premium on PHYS is at levels not seen since the first quarter of this year.

    As always there are several ways to resolve this.  One way of course is for the price of gold to go higher.  But PHYS can also decline in price.

    Lets see if gold can break out above the psychological $1700.





    02 September 2012

    Robert Johnson: Audacious Oligarchy - Unmasking Wall Street and the Decline of Confidence



    Two brief excerpts from Robert Johnson's Discussion at IMPACT 2012 in NYC

    "Legitimate if you can, coerce if you have to, and accommodate if you must."

    Jürgen Habermas, (paraphrased)





    Robert Johnson serves as the Executive Director of the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) and a Senior Fellow and Director of the Global Finance Project for the Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt Institute in New York.

    Previously, Johnson was a Managing Director at Soros Fund Management where he managed a global currency, bond and equity portfolio specializing in emerging markets. Prior to working at Soros Fund Management, he was a Managing Director of Bankers Trust Company managing a global currency fund.

    Johnson served as Chief Economist of the US Senate Banking Committee under the leadership of Chairman William Proxmire (D. Wisconsin) and of Chairman Pete Domenici (R. New Mexico).

    Johnson received a Ph.D. and M.A. in Economics from Princeton University and a B.S. in both Electrical Engineering and Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.


    01 September 2012

    Bill Moyers: Mike Lofgren and the Corruption of American Politics By Corporate Money



    Here is an interesting tale of some of the self-serving hypocrites of Washington.

    Commentary is provided by Mike Lofgren, author of The Party Is Over: How Republicans Went Crazy, Democrats Became Useless, and the Middle Class Got Shafted.

    Moyers & Company Full Show #134: The Resurrection of Ralph Reed.


    31 August 2012

    Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - How Sweet It Is



    If gold can take out this next level of trend resistance and stick it, the yearly high is in sight.

    One might be emotionally prepared for a retest of the downtrend resistance that was just surpassed.




    SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Much Ado About Bernanke






    Net Asset Value Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds



    I trimmed my sails in to the long weekend.

    Sprott silver continues to underperform a bit in premium compared to Sprott gold.


    30 August 2012

    Simon Johnson On the Quiet Coup d'Etat in the Anglo-American Financial System



    This is a reprise of an interview with MIT economist Simon Johnson which was posted here in February, 2009.

    Have we heeded Simon Johnson's warning? Has he proven to be prescient? Is crony capitalism and the kleptocracy becoming bolder, more aggressive, ever more demanding?
    "I think I'm signaling something a little bit shocking to Americans, and to myself, actually. Which is the situation we find ourselves in at this moment, this week, is very strongly reminiscent of the situations we've seen many times in other places.

    But they're places we don't like to think of ourselves as being similar to. They're emerging markets. It's Russia or Indonesia or a Thailand type situation, or Korea. That's not comfortable. America is different. America is special. America is rich. And, yet, we've somehow find ourselves in the grip of the same sort of crisis and the same sort of oligarchs...

    But, exactly what you said, it's a small group with a lot of power. A lot of wealth. They don't necessarily - they're not necessarily always the names, the household names that spring to mind, in this kind of context. But they are the people who could pull the strings. Who have the influence. Who call the shots...

    ...the signs that I see this week, the body language, the words, the op-eds, the testimony, the way they're treated by certain Congressional committees, it makes me feel very worried.

    I have this feeling in my stomach that I felt in other countries, much poorer countries, countries that were headed into really difficult economic situation. When there's a small group of people who got you into a disaster, and who were still powerful. Disaster even made them more powerful. And you know you need to come in and break that power. And you can't. You're stuck....

    The powerful people are the insiders. They're the CEOs of these banks. They're the people who run these banks. They're the people who pay themselves the massive bonuses at the end of the last year. Now, those bonuses are not the essence of the problem, but they are a symptom of an arrogance, and a feeling of invincibility, that tells you a lot about the culture of those organizations, and the attitudes of the people who lead them...

    But it really shows you the arrogance, and I think these people think that they've won. They think it's over. They think it's won. They think that we're going to pay out ten or 20 percent of GDP to basically make them whole. It's astonishing....

    ...these people are throughout the system of government. They are very much at the forefront of the Treasury. The Treasury is apparently calling the shots on their economic policies.

    This is a decisive moment. Either you break the power or we're stuck for a long time with this arrangement."


    Bill Moyer's Journal - Interview with Simon Johnson, February, 2009.

    Johnson also wrote a piece in the Atlantic Magazine titled The Quiet Coup. It may be worth re-reading.
    Here is the introduction to this in The Fall of the American Republic: The Quiet Coup d'Etat in August 2010.

    "I am not so optimistic that this reform is possible, because there has in fact been a soft coup d'etat in the US, which now exists in a state of crony corporatism that wields enormous influence over the media and within the government.

    Let's be clear about this, the oligarchs are flush with victory, and feel that they are firmly in control, able to subvert and direct any popular movement to the support of their own fascist ends and unslakable will to power.

    This is the contempt in which they hold the majority of American people and the political process: the common people are easily led fools, and everyone else who is smart enough to know better has their price. And they would beggar every middle class voter in the US before they will voluntarily give up one dime of their ill gotten gains.

    But my model says that the oligarchs will continue to press their advantages, being flushed with victory, until they provoke a strong reaction that frightens everyone, like a wake up call, and the tide then turns to genuine reform."

    As far as I can tell, we are right on track for a very bad time of it. And you might be surprised at how far a belief in exceptionalism and arrogant superiority can go before it finally ends, or more likely, falls.



    Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Sleepy August, But Here Come the Winds of September


    Tomorrow marks the end of sleepy August, one of the lightest trading months in recent memory.

    Benny speaks at Jackson Hole, but he is unlikely to say anything new.

    The real action starts in September and October, as the US election intensifies along with the European crisis and several key events and decisions. I suspect next year will be most interesting.

    The average person is lulled to sleep. When they wake up into the end of the year, they might not like what they see, and the position which they are in.





    SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - An End to Sleepy August


    Tomorrow is the end of the month, and so we say goodby to sleepy August and its lackluster trade.

    Benny speaks at Jackson Hole tomorrow. I doubt he announces anything new, but he may flap his jaw a bit ahead of the three day holiday weekend in the States.



    29 August 2012

    Chris Hedges: The Tinder of Revolutionary Movements


    "I have three precious things, which I hold fast and prize.

    The first is gentleness; the second is frugality; the third is humility, which keeps me from putting myself before others. Be gentle, and you can be bold; be frugal, and you can be liberal; avoid putting yourself before others, and you can become a leader among men.

    But in the present day men cast off gentleness, and are all for being bold; they spurn frugality, and retain only extravagance; they discard humility, and aim only at being first.

    Therefore they shall surely perish.

    Gentleness brings victory to him who attacks, and safety to him who defends. Those whom Heaven would save, it fences round with gentleness."

    Lao Tzu


    "A revolution is coming: a revolution which will be peaceful if we are wise enough; compassionate if we care enough; successful if we are fortunate enough. But a revolution which is coming whether we will it or not. We can affect its character; we cannot alter its inevitability."

    Robert F. Kennedy



    SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Updated After the Close


    Charts are a little early today but will be adjusted if anything significant happens into the close.

    Note: charts have been updated. Apparently they dumped the futures to the opening price in the last half hour of trade. Very technically traded market. Pretty much infested by key punching day traders and computer algos.

    Have a pleasant evening.





    Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts


    Charts are early this evening. They will be updated if there are any significant changes.

    It's back to school time for the college bound, and final flings for the young ones.

    As previously noted gold and silver bullion positions are hedged.

    Have a pleasant evening.





    Net Asset Value Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds



    Silver premiums remain remarkably low when compared to gold.



    Taibbi: The True Story of Mitt Romney and Bain Capital



    For a related story read The Federal Bailout That Saved Mitt Romney also from Rolling Stone.

    Greed and Debt: The True Story of Mitt Romney and Bain Capital
    By Matt Taibbi
    August 29, 2012

    The great criticism of Mitt Romney, from both sides of the aisle, has always been that he doesn't stand for anything. He's a flip-flopper, they say, a lightweight, a cardboard opportunist who'll say anything to get elected.

    The critics couldn't be more wrong. Mitt Romney is no tissue-paper man. He's closer to being a revolutionary, a backward-world version of Che or Trotsky, with tweezed nostrils instead of a beard, a half-Windsor instead of a leather jerkin. His legendary flip-flops aren't the lies of a bumbling opportunist – they're the confident prevarications of a man untroubled by misleading the nonbeliever in pursuit of a single, all-consuming goal. Romney has a vision, and he's trying for something big: We've just been too slow to sort out what it is, just as we've been slow to grasp the roots of the radical economic changes that have swept the country in the last generation.

    The incredible untold story of the 2012 election so far is that Romney's run has been a shimmering pearl of perfect political hypocrisy, which he's somehow managed to keep hidden, even with thousands of cameras following his every move. And the drama of this rhetorical high-wire act was ratcheted up even further when Romney chose his running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin – like himself, a self-righteously anal, thin-lipped, Whitest Kids U Know penny pincher who'd be honored to tell Oliver Twist there's no more soup left. By selecting Ryan, Romney, the hard-charging, chameleonic champion of a disgraced-yet-defiant Wall Street, officially succeeded in moving the battle lines in the 2012 presidential race...

    Read the rest here.


    28 August 2012

    Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Pausing, Pausing...



    The pause at resistance continues. I have added a chart line to gold to help make it more visible.

    I added some hedges to my bullion position today on the if/come of Bernanke and Draghi.

    There was some intraday commentary on economics and the markets here.

    Obama needs to do something to show he is serious about reform, even if he isn't. Geithner and Holder and a few of his key regulators are a significant impediment to his credibility as a leader of change and reform, but it is not likely that they will be replaced before the election. Obama is often careful to the point of timidity, caught in a web of indecision and conflicting priorities.

    By the way, Obama's advisors are terrible, but Romney's are a cabal of neocons and neoliberals, in case you were looking for any comfort there. Comfort is an illusion without significant reform.

    Will Le Charlatan Obama perform some grand gesture to rouse his long-suffering base now that the Wall Street donations well has been booked in this cycle? If he is going to do it, the time is at the end of the week, to take the edge off the other guy's convention rhetoric.

    Let's see what happens.



    SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Waiting for Bernanke



    The US equity market is waiting for either Bernanke or Draghi to sound the release of hot money.

    Bernanke will be at Jackson Hole, and Draghi is skipping that soiree to continue his plans for bond purchases in Europe.

    If Ben is going to do something, Jackson Hole is the place to say something to pave the way in the markets for it.

    I will be surprised if he does anything, but it is certainly not impossible.

    Without significant reform there will be no sustained recovery.





    Neoliberalism: Rise of the Machine


    Miranda: O brave new world that has such people in it!

    Prospero: 'Tis new, to thee.

    The Tempest Act 5, scene 1

    In my reading today I came across this relatively good description of Neoliberalism in economics excerpted below, and its implications for society.  The name for this school is often confusing to some, because it is a school of the right, more akin to political neoconservatism than anything commonly known as liberal.

    Here is the schoolbook definition of neoliberalism in economics:
    "Neoliberalism is a label for economic liberalizations, free trade, and open markets. Neoliberalism supports privatization of state-owned enterprises, deregulation of markets, and promotion of the private sector's role in society. In the 1980s, much of neoliberal theory was incorporated into mainstream economics."
    I have to reiterate my own perspective that economics is not a physical science with rules generally tested by replicable experimentation on the macro level, but is at most a 'social science' that attempts to approximate a complex human reality, like sociology.

    Microeconomics 'works' because it is less dependent on the human element, and involves itself with mechanical processes and pricing functions. By 'economics' I am discussing what is called macroeconomics, or the economics not of a discreet process or set of processes called a 'business' but of a broad economy with enormous sets of variables and processes that are far too complex to represent well mathematically.  They most often trim and crush reality to fit some compactly useful model, as in the manner of Nassim Taleb's Procrustean Bed.

    When it ventures into the realm of public policy discussions, economics often resembles a belief system very much like a religion.   It is easily twisted to serve the desires and actions of its acolytes while conferring an aura of logic.  But there is almost always some 'leap of faith' made that spans the enormous gulf between the model, its assumptions, and reality.

    Economics is only as good as its assumptions, which may in fact be terribly distorted with each step towards a more general application from a simple a priori observation that sounds self-evident at first.  Economics is a veritable cornucopia of non sequiturs encased in obscurantist terminology.

    People are reasoning, therefore in their actions they act reasonably. And in the mass of financial transactions that is the market, these rational actors and their actions impute a natural rationality to the market that makes it efficient. Therefore the law of supply and demand and the perfect clearing price of the market, which are central tenets of market efficiency, are not to be interfered with by outside forces, like regulation and government.

    And what makes this believable is that this can be true, if people are as good and perfectly wise and uniform in their actions as angels; but they are not, not a one of them, but especially those who are drawn to making their money from money, and especially from speculation in the markets.  This type of activity attracts people from the tails of human behaviour, like most sources of wealth and power.

    This assertion  of natural market efficiency sounds good, especially when it is delivered by academics in nice suits with lots of degrees and titles, backed by a multimillion dollar PR campaign that contains well crafted, thinly disguised appeals to more visceral emotions.   But it is a theory that is easily shown to be founded in fantasy to anyone who has driven on a crowded multi-lane highway in rush hour.

    And a corollary to this is that the system grades or objectively and perfectly evaluates people on their merits. If one suffers some misfortune or fails to rise 'to the top' of the heap, then this is an objective judgement on them and their value, their character, their worthiness as a human being.   And some would say that this speaks to their status as a fully valued member of that society, to have rights and to vote, to receive food and vital medical attention, and to have families and to procreate.

    Because the system is perfectly efficient and rewards the best, the most successful are sanctified by it. I am wealthy, therefore I am among the elect, whether it is marked by an aristocratic title or an enormous bank account.  I am above all the rest, and this proves my value, and provides all the things which are stuffed into my hollowed being.

    One can certainly and legitimately use economics, among other things, to support their particular policy arguments to estimate effects. But the listeners should accept this with plenty of skepticism, because the proofs are largely based on statistics, or statistically based models, that are filled with often unspoken assumptions, questionable estimates, and too often critical omissions, both conscious or inadvertent.

    But to take an economic model out of its place, and put it above the discussion as policy maker in the manner of a computing machine which spits out the ultimate solutions, to capitalize 'Market' as a type of god on earth, to put that false idol as an unfettered decision-making machine above the individuals of a society and the rule of law, is inhuman, and ultimately a tyranny of the anti-human.

    Economics is a tool, in some implementations better than others, but overall not a particularly reliable one.  It is better in 'explaining' than predicting; its explanations are more often rationalizations founded in its malleability and lack of rigor, especially in its use of correlations and assumptions.

    The elevation of macroeconomics today reminds one of the perversions of the discoveries in biology that led to the theories of eugenics and the race worship, the mythology of the blood that motivated much of the social thinking and many serious political movements at the beginnings of the twentieth century.   It was when the intelligentsia and the professions, the doctors and lawyers, threw in their lot with the financial and industrial elite that European society began to quickly fall apart.
    "I believe that if a canvass of the entire civilized world were put to the vote in this matter, the proposition that it is desirable that the better sort of people should intermarry and have plentiful children, and that the inferior sort of people should abstain from multiplication, would be carried by an overwhelming majority...

    Indeed, Mr. Galton has drawn up certain definite proposals. He has suggested that "noble families" should collect "fine specimens of humanity" around them, employing these fine specimens in menial occupations of a light and comfortable sort, that will leave a sufficient portion of their energies free for the multiplication of their superior type."

    Source: H.G. Wells, Mankind in the Making
    People forget that a whole range of intellectuals and popular thinkers, from George Bernard Shaw to H.G. Wells and a large measure of the economic, professional and political aristocracy of the day, embraced the notion of the natural superiority of certain human types, and the scientific necessity of encouraging their proliferation, and the dominance of the untermensch as not only their right but their obligation.

    The medical profession disgraced itself, amongst the first of those in Germany, with their willingness and devotion to implement euthanasia based on these 'scientific principles.' And the elite in the West broadly looked at this movement with quiet compliance and even admiration for the will to make these 'hard decisions.'  It was only when the definition of the master race became increasingly narrow and their methods madly brutal that they recoiled in horror.  But by then it was too late, although many adherents to the basic principles remained sympathetic in England and America.

    Science serves at its best, but it does not rule well, except to blind the heart and the mind to madness.

    And one might look at these people from the past with revulsion and wonder, but the self-proclaimed ruling class of the West is doing the same thing today, largely by financial means for now. Their rhetoric and reasoning is filled with it, a sense of the obligation of their natural superiority. And if they steal from you, it is a privilege. And if a little of their spoils trickles down, you should be grateful.

    There are plenty of believers in the ascendancy of a new master class, as long as they think they are a part of it. You may see them and their ideas on display this week from Brussels and Berlin, to Tampa and Jackson Hole. And they are not members of learning organizations, but protectors and promoters of the status quo.
    "There is a lack of critical assessment of the past. But you have to understand that the current ruling elite is actually the old ruling elite. So they are incapable of a self-critical approach to the past."

    Ryszard Kapuscinski
    If one wishes to have an oligarchy or even a dictatorship based on power and unscrupulous behaviour in which the 'superior,' as one may choose to define them, use the weak as servants and prey, then decide to do so and say it, and hope the people will support it.

    But it seems particularly hypocritical and cheap to set up a god of economic science which is elevated to speak these same words as an inspired dictum from above, but which is in reality a false idol carrying the calculated whisperings of its high priests, and then expect the people to bow to it forever without any eventual reaction. 

    The Tyranny of Neoliberalism

    Unapologetic in its implementation of austerity measures that cause massive amounts of human hardship and suffering, neoliberal capitalism consolidates class power on the backs of young people, workers, and others marginalized by class, race, and ethnicity. Neoliberal capitalism appears to no longer need the legitimacy garnered through its false claim to democratic ideals such as free speech, individual liberty, or justice—however tepid these appeals have always been(cf. Glenn Greenwald - Jesse)

    In the absence of alternative social visions to market-driven values and the increasing separation of global corporate power from national politics, neoliberalism has wrested itself free of any regulatory controls while at the same time removing economics from any consideration of social costs, ethics, or social responsibility. Such a disposition is evident in the fact that neoliberalism's only imperatives are profits and growing investments in global power structures unmoored from any form of accountable, democratic governance.

    The devastating fallout of neoliberal capitalism's reorganization of society, the destruction of communities and impoverishment of individuals and families, now becomes its most embraced mode of expression as it is championed, ironically, as the only viable route to economic stability.

    In this widely accepted, yet dystopian world view, collective misfortune is no longer interpreted as a sign of failing governance or the tawdry willingness of politicians to serve corporate interests, but attributed to the character flaws of individuals and defined chiefly as a matter of personal responsibility. In fact, government-provided social protections are viewed as pathological. Matters of life and death are removed from traditional modes of democratic governance and made subject to the sovereignty of the market.  (Don't feed the 'losers' or the undesirables - isolate and then euthanise them, indirectly at first - Jesse)

    In this new age of biocapital, or what Eric Cazdyn calls "bioeconomics," "all ideals are at the mercy of a larger economic logic" —one that unapologetically generates policies that "trample over millions of people if necessary." Neoliberalism's defining ideologies, values, and policies harness all institutions, social practices, and modes of thought to the demands of corporations and the needs of the warfare state. They are as narrowly self-serving as they are destructive.  (The individuals, even in their millions, must die if not for the good of the state or the race, then for the good of the market and corporate profits.  - Jesse)

    As collective responsibility is privatized, politics loses its social and democratic character, and the formative culture necessary for the production of engaged critical agents is gravely undermined. An utterly reduced form of agency is now embodied in the figure of the isolated automaton, who is driven by self-interest and eschews any responsibility for the other.

    As Stuart J. Murray points out, neoliberalism's totalizing discourse of privatization, commodification, deregulation, and hyper-individualism "co-opts and eviscerates the language of the common good." The ascendancy of neoliberal ideology also manifests in an ongoing assault on democratic public spheres, public goods, and any viable notion of equality and social justice.

    As corporate power is consolidated into fewer and fewer hands, ideological and structural reforms are implemented to transfer wealth and income into the hands of a ruling financial and corporate elite.  This concentration of power is all the more alarming since both Canada and the United States have experienced unprecedented growth in wealth concentration and income inequality since the 1970s.

    Henry Giroux, Days of Rage: The Quebec Student Protest Movement


    27 August 2012

    Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - A Pause at Resistance, Now Support



    Both gold and silver were held up at resistance, which is now acting as some support.



    SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Quiet Day


    The market is holding its breath waiting to see what Zimbabwe Ben will say at Jackson Hole on Friday.

    Stocks have diverged significantly higher from commodities and the euro. Something's going to change to restore the correlations.





    Many the Wonders, But Nothing Stranger Than Man - Sophocles


    "What a piece of work is a man, how noble in reason, how infinite in faculties, in form and moving how express and admirable, in action how like an angel, in apprehension how like a god! the beauty of the world, the paragon of animals...

    William Shakespeare, Hamlet

    Men and women are such varied instruments, with far-ranging highs and lows, capable of remarkable, heart-breaking beauty and, with the same voice and hands and mind, unspeakable ugliness and petty squalor.

    A mass of contradictions. Love and hate, held by a narrow seam. Heirs to the everlasting, born astride a grave. Dust that moves the eternal mind.

    "What is man that you are mindful of him, the son of man that you care for him?"

    Psalm 8:4



    25 August 2012

    Sophie Scholl: The Final Days - The Trial and Death of Die Weiße Rose



    The Nazi movement was not a uniquely German event; it is a uniquely human event, and such a movement remains so to this day.

    When human beings, for whatever reason and rationale, decide that it is expedient and necessary to put aside their principles and their conscience, and in the pain of their humanity make themselves into beasts, then the will to power and its madness is unleashed upon them, their children, and the world. No one, no people, is safe from this awful tragedy.

    I have heard it argued that The White Rose movement was in the wrong, because they did in fact violate the laws of Nazi Germany. They did, clearly, but for the sake of their conscience. I had become interested in them because of the profound influence which the writings of John Henry Newman had on Sophie Scholl and her fiance Fritz Hartnagel, with regard to the necessity and primacy of individual conscience.

    It has also been argued that they were foolish, because they were not successful. Success is everything in our world, and it is measured by the material and in the short term.

    They could have stayed in University, found good jobs, and adapted themselves to the reality of their society, paying lip service to their principles. Go along to get along. Again, only if they were able to still their own conscience and cast themselves along with the mob into madness and the abyss.

    Why think of such gloomy things on such a fine sunny day?

    Because the time grows short, shorter for some of us, but with a definite end in sight. And the powers of this world are never at rest, but prowl like ravening wolves, seeking to devour us.

    Do not look to the other fellow and what they may be doing, and spend your time judging others, the more harshly the better.   When I see a soul that is lost, it is the hardness of their heart that is telling.  First save yourselves, by putting your own hardened heart aside.

    How do you know if you are saved? Because there is a love of love in your heart, that is unmistakable.

    If you have the power to prophesy, if you hold your convictions with a hardness of steel, and engage in remarkable displays of devotion, but you have no love, you are nothing, you are lost.

    The night approaches, and it is almost time to come home. So do not be left in the dark.