Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - A Bull Market In Bulloney - Lie and Deny Everything

“Before mass leaders seize the power to fit reality to their lies, their propaganda is marked by its extreme contempt for facts as such, for in their opinion fact depends entirely on the power of man who can fabricate it.”

Hannah Arendt


And one day, too late, your principles, if you were ever sensible of them, all rush in upon you. The burden of self-deception has grown too heavy...

The world you live in—your nation, your people—is not the world you were born in at all. The forms are all there, all untouched, all reassuring, the houses, the shops, the jobs, the mealtimes, the visits, the concerts, the cinema, the holidays. But the spirit, which you never noticed because you made the lifelong mistake of identifying it with the forms, is changed.

Now you live in a world of hate and fear, and the people who hate and fear do not even know it themselves; when everyone is transformed, no one is transformed. Now you live in a system which rules without responsibility even to God.  The system itself could not have intended this in the beginning, but in order to sustain itself it was compelled to go all the way.”

Milton Mayer, They Thought They Were Free

Gold and silver managed to rally up a bit today on a slightly weaker dollar.

there was no breakout. I know quite a few people are watching the 100 DMA for gold. I think the chart is pretty much in concurrence with a widely watched metric and manages to convey more information overall.

Stocks tried to rally all day, but just could not hold it into the close and sold off a bit.

So, no breakouts or breakdowns. The best the market mavens could do was manage a draw.

The situation with the Saudis is interesting and worth watching.

The retail sales data was not constructive to the sustainable recovery story.

Even with the one percent fat and wealthy, and corporations chock full of cash and building monopolies at a record pace, can the US economy sustain itself with a consumer base that is frightened, unhealthy, generally put upon by frauds, and scraping by on stagnant incomes?

I don't even live in a 'swing state' and the level of television ads and door to door volunteers is at surprisingly high levels.

All politicians lie, but lately they are lying so much and so casually that they doesn't even bother to hide their tracks or make any attempt to save face, except with more lies and denials.  And the whole process on both sides of the aisle has become cynically slick, professionally noxious, noisome and disgusting.

The working class may be hooked on opioids, but the elite's drug of choice is Denietol.

Why not? It appears to be working fine for them.

Our healthcare system is criminally insane. The level of corruption in the corporate world and on Wall Street is at record levels.

And what are we talking about on the national stage?  Certainly not financial and healthcare reform.

Have a pleasant evening.

Reprise: Remembering Oscar Romero and the Martyrs of El Salvador

"Brothers, you came from our own people. You are killing your own brothers. Any human order to kill must be subordinate to the law of God, which says, 'Thou shalt not kill'. No soldier is obliged to obey an order contrary to the law of God. No one has to obey an immoral law. It is high time you obeyed your consciences rather than sinful orders. The church cannot remain silent before such an abomination.

In the name of God, in the name of this suffering people whose cry rises to heaven more loudly each day, I implore you, I beg you, I order you: stop the repression...

You can tell your people that if they succeed in killing me, that I forgive and bless those who do it. Hopefully, they will realize they are wasting their time. A bishop will die, but the church of God, which is the people, will never perish."

Oscar Romero

In El Salvador in the 1970's, a right wing coalition backed by the country's richest families inflicted a reign of terror on the reformers who sought peaceful change in their repressive, oligarchic rule where a few had the most, and the rest lived in deprivation and poverty.

The Catholic Church in that country, under the leadership of Archbishop Romero of San Salvador, offered peaceful support and comfort to the protesters and the reformers and the many victims of official murder and terrorism.

On 24 March 1980 Archbishop Romero was assassinated while saying Mass at La Divina Providencia, one day after calling on the soldiers to stop torturing, raping, and murdering people in the reign of terror.

No one was every arrested or held responsible for this act.

On the day of his funeral, the mourners were bombed, and attacked by snipers positioned on the rooftops.  Forty people died and many more were wounded.

Later that year four missionary nuns were raped and murdered shortly after they had arrived at the airport.

The assassination of Oscar Romero provoked a vicious twelve year civil war against financial and political repression, as the reformers gave up hope of any peaceful change.  And it opened the door for more radical elements in their ranks as the people gave in to despair.

As had happened in the past, and continues to happen today,  repression of peaceful change and justice threatened to bring about the very conditions that the ruling families of the country had feared.  These are the fruits of greed and the lust for power, driven to hysteria and violent repression.

People like to remember the frightful abuses of state socialism at the extreme, and well they should do this.  But they tend to overlook and excuse the crimes and repression inflicted on the people in the name of neo-liberal capitalism, which is nothing more than oligarchy and a fascism of the powerful. They both use fear and terror to herd the people into the abbatoirs of predation and repression.  And we allow ourselves to be blinded by their lies and propaganda, their myths of our exceptionalism, and our own fear, hate, and willfulness.

Hatred and violence in all their forms, whether of the extremes of the left or right, no matter what is used to justify such acts, are little different in their offense against His commandments and His love, and to the sorrow of the individual victims.

"It was a civil war of the 1980s, one that pitted leftist revolutionaries against the alliance of countries, oligarchs, and generals that had ruled the country for decades—with U.S. support—keeping peasants illiterate and impoverished. It was a bloody, brutal, and dirty war. More than 75,000 Salvadorans were killed in the fighting, most of them victims of the military and its death squads. Peasants were shot en masse, often while trying to flee. Student and union leaders had their thumbs tied behind their backs before being shot in the head, their bodies left on roadsides as a warning to others...

Many Americans would prefer to forget that chapter in American history; those under the age of 40 may not even be aware of it. Salvadorans haven’t forgotten, however."

Raymond Bonner, America's Role in El Salvador's Deterioration


'A true opium of the people is the huge solace of thinking that for our betrayals, greed, cowardice, and murders we are not going to be judged.'

Czeslaw Milosz

Relative Scarcity of Physical Gold Prompts Large Drawdowns From Funds and ETFs

"It appears that there is a dwindling and overleveraged supply heading towards an unmanageable and relentless source of demand."

It is interesting to watch the ongoing management of physical gold holdings in the West.

Physical gold has been seeing large drawdowns from inventory during this price decline, but silver does not.

This is not due to some preference or matter of taste.   Physical gold for sale at these prices is in short supply, whereas silver is not.

Both are subject to speculative price manipulation in the paper markets.

The relentless demand from Asia is stressing the highly leveraged claims per physical ounce of gold in London and New York.

It appears that there is a dwindling and overleveraged supply heading towards an unmanageable and relentless source of demand.

The system will be maintained— until it cannot.   Although the game can be extended by a determined effort, no commodity pricing pool can last forever in the face of a stubbornly stable supply and a steady excess of offtake out of the pool, shenanigans and antics notwithstanding.

Physical gold is flowing from West to East, into the markets and strong hands of Asia. 

Bye bye gold.

The eventual resolution may be quite energetic in terms of price.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Stormy Weather

"I preferred her to scepters and thrones,
and I accounted wealth as nothing in comparison with her.
Neither did I compare any priceless gem to her,
because all gold is but a little sand in her sight,
and silver will be accounted as clay to her.
I loved her more than health and beauty,
and I chose to have her rather than light,
because her radiance never ceases.
All good things came to me along with her."

Wisdom 7:8-11

We had some profit-taking in the metals, and in short positions in equities today.

Let's see how things go next week.

I have to run now to take care of some errands while the sun is shining.

Have a pleasant weekend.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Most Economists and Market Pundits In De-nile - Walk Like an Egyptian

"No regulatory penalties, no criminal indictments for fraud, no clawbacks, no prohibitions of bonuses at least during early phase of financial market recovery, all of this sticks in my mind as unjustifiable— and imprudent, as it taught a lasting lesson that bankers had immunity."

Dr. Harald Malmgren


"At the recent market peak, the most reliable measures of U.S. equity market valuation (those best correlated w/actual subsequent long-term returns) were about 200% above (3 times) historical norms. No market cycle, not even 2002, 2009, has ended at valuations even half that level."

John Hussman

Yesterday I said:

"The 2770 level on the SP 500 Futures chart looks like an important support level. Below that the bulls will need to start taking Xanax if they break 2740 and stick a close below that."

The continuous contract SP 500 futures, which is what I watch and chart, failed to hold that support at 2770, and closed at 2747, after an intraday low at 2712, which is the diagonal support line from the previous correction lows.

As for big cap tech, after a plunge to test 6905 they managed to come off the lows and actually finish in the green around 7040

So at least for today the market stabilization crew can claim 'mission accomplished.'

The Dollar took a bit of a dive today, as the safe haven buying flocked to the bonds, sending yields lower, and to gold and silver which had the kind of bounce we have not seen in some time.

Gold finished near the upper band of its recent short term trading range.  Now we have to 'break out' to keep it going higher from here. 

Let's see how the wiseguys manage the markets going into the weekend.

As previously noted, a decent attempt to get the stocks back higher, after some possible doodling around down here near support is certainly possible.

I have not bothered to calculate the percent declines and Fibonacci retracement levels yet, as the current correction is still rather 'young.'

We are on the brink of earnings season once again, and those firms coming out and warning are being beaten rather soundly.

If stock buybacks are the main thing that the stock bulls can look forward to, then they are just delaying the inevitable.

Have a pleasant evening.

Shanghai Gold Exchange - A Steady Source of Demand for Physical Gold

"Since 2013 China continues to absorb physical gold from the rest of the world at a staggering pace.  Worth noting is that gold imported into the Chinese domestic market is not allowed to be returned in the foreseeable future. 

Because ownership and the disposition of these volumes of gold likely will be of great importance next time around the international monetary system is under stress, it’s well worth tracking China’s progress of imports – especially because the mainstream media and most consultancy firms are in denial of these events."

Koos Jansen, BullionStar


"Gold is unique among assets, in that it is not issued by any government or central bank, which means that its value is not influenced by political decisions or the solvency of one institution or another."

Salvatore Rossi, Chief of the Central Bank of Italy, 30 Sept 2013

Related:   The Chinese Gold Market Essentials Guide

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Greatest Show On Earth - A Banquet of Consequences, Part I

"It's probably early days, but now might be the time to start taking precautions against a 2008 class event in the financial markets. I would suggest it might arrive anytime between now and July 2020. These sorts of things depend on the magnitude of any 'trigger event,' which is why it is so difficult to forecast with regard to specific dates. As time goes on the required force for a market moving event decreases until it takes very little to set that ball in motion."

Jesse, 24 July 2018


"Welcome to October, the month of unexpected falls from heights, and stock market tears."

Jesse, 1 October 2018


"The VIX futures were in contango today. That means that the nearer term months were at a higher value than the following months. Usually it is the other way around. backwardation, with the futures in the following months gradually increasing in price. This is a signal that a nearer term and disruptive spike in risk is being expected by a number of traders, and they are seeking protection from it.

If you look at the NDX futures chart below, you can see how every day for the past three days that the futures have slumped heavily lower, recovering a bit in the afternoon while Asia and Europe are asleep, only to drop sharply again the next day, and fail to completely recover.

Stocks may turn around and rally higher from here. But the risk for equities is pronounced."

Jesse, Monday, 8 October 2018


“We have been in a state of stagnation since 2008.  We’re moving towards stagflation.  It feels good right now but it’s a false dawn.”

Alan 'Bubbles' Greenspan

Ba da bing, ba da boom.   Le voilà.

Stocks were down sharply on very heavy volumes. They went out near the lows of the day.

Today was the kind of day when you could almost feel your IQ start to decline from listening to the spokemodels and guest commentary on financial television—   a 'contact high' of hubris and self-delusion.

We can always hope that our tax cut flush companies will start buying their own stocks again once earnings season is underway and they make their announcements.

We may get a decent attempt to rally back up some time, likely after some follow through to the downside. The ESF might take a shot at it tomorrow, but if these volumes keep distributing to the downside I don't think they have enough ammo to turn it around. They might have to wait for a capitulation first.

The 2770 level on the SP 500 Futures chart looks like an important support level.  Below that the bulls will need to start taking Xanax if they break 2740 and stick a close below that.

If the market turns and puts a multi-day rally together, and starts approaching this last blow off top, and it fails, look out below.

Either way, there is most likely much worse to come with time. That we expect something different is remarkable, a genuine triumph of modern persuasion, the power of dark money, and old-fashioned demagoguery.

Need little, want less, love more. For those who abide in God abide in love, and love in them.

Have a pleasant evening.