"We live in a world where love itself is condemned. People call it weakness, something to grow out of. Some are saying: 'Let each one become as strong as he can, and let the weak perish.' They say that the Christian religion with its preaching about love is a thing of the past. The neo-paganism [of the Nazis] may well cast off love but, in spite of everything, history teaches us that we shall be the victors over this. We shall not forsake love." Titus Brandsma, executed at Dachau, 26 July 1942
“First you destroy those who create values. Then you destroy those who know what values are, and who also know that those who have already been destroyed were in fact the creators of values.
But real barbarism begins when no one can judge or know that what they are doing is barbaric."
Ryszard Kapuscinski
"What keeps faith cheerful is the extreme persistence of gentleness and humor. Gentleness is everywhere in daily life, a sign that faith rules through ordinary things: through cooking and small talk, through storytelling, making love, fishing, tending animals and sweet corn and flowers, through sports, music, and books, raising kids—all the places where the gravy soaks in and grace shines through.Let's see how the trade in precious metals progresses over the next few days, to see if the handle 'sets' and a cup and handle formation is confirmed with a breakout.
Even in a time of elephantine vanity and greed, one never has to look far to see the campfires of gentle people. Lacking any other purpose in life, it would be good enough to live for their sake."
Garrison Keillor
"This chart shows a massive accumulation pattern, marked by the green lines. This pattern is a story of strong hands and weak hands, specifically, of silver moving to the former from the latter.
From its $50 high in January 1980 to its $3.50 low in February 1991, the weak hands were shaken out. At that point, the accumulation by strong hands – who were buying because the recognized that silver was an exceptional bargain – became the dominant force. Their buying power was stronger than the selling pressure of the weak hands, and the price of silver responded by starting to climb. It was classic stage one action, but here’s the important point.
Silver is still in stage one. It won’t advance into stage two until $50 is exceeded, just like gold did not enter stage two until its previous high of $850 was hurdled.
I expect that silver will exceed $50 this year, which is a point of view I first mentioned in my outlook for 2010
Admittedly, I was a little early with my forecast about when gold would enter stage two. So perhaps I will again be early by forecasting that silver will enter stage two of its bull market this year. Regardless of the accuracy of my timing, one thing is clear. Because it is still in stage one, silver remains good value."
James Turk
February 14th, 2011
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| Illustration of a Classic Cup and Handle Formation |
Ben Davies' Interview on King World News is a credible hypothesis into what may be happening over the next two years or so. I always assume these large macro changes take time, but there are periods when they reach a tipping point or a sea change and the progress of such changes can accelerate significantly. The markets may be signaling such a major development.
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| How's Your Confidence Now? |
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| How About Now? |
Gold Daily
Gold has firmly and clearly broken out of the cup and handle formation which is now active. There is a possibility that it will retrace to the point of breakout which should now be considered support. Targets for the formation are as indicated.
Silver Daily
Silver has reached the minimum measuring objective of its breakout from the symmetrical triangle which is a continuation pattern in the powerful bull market. A consolidation would be typical, considering the short term overbought condition. However, silver is not a 'typical commodity' but a key metal that has been subject to years of suppression by a few powerful trading banks. So be on your guard and expect the unexpected.
Silver Weekly
US Dollar Daily
I have support at 79.50, and this is where the dollar tested today in its downside slide. The DX Index is deeply flawed, being weighted heavily to the yen and euro, with no weight to the developing country currencies or gold and silver. But it is the most widely watched index until something better comes along.
US Dollar Weekly
US Dollar Ready to Plummet - James Turk
Gold Daily Chart with Cup and Handle Formation
After three up days gold could be in for a bit of a pullback to test support at a little lower level and consolidate its gains. However, there is a whiff of hysteria in the air, and this could feed another advance or two. I do not like to see gold get ahead of itself.
But having said that, at some point it may just break away, and that will be that.
For now I like to hedge against the downside plunge in stocks that will become more likely after the US Labor Day holiday and we enter the period of highest risk, September to November.
Gold Daily Chart With 50 Day Moving Average
Gold has decisively broken through its 50 day moving average. This should provide support around the 1210 level for any pullbacks.
Gold Weekly
Gold is moving up to test the big resistance level again around 1255. I would like to see it approach that level with backing and filling, on a steady sustainable pace.
Silver Weekly
Silver is lagging a bit in its breakout and is facing determined resistance around 18.75 and then 19.50. The coming explosion in the price of silver could see daily gains hitting up limits, trapping shorts. But not yet. The big dogs are trying to back out of their short positions and cover their tracks without creating a buying panic. Silver remains more vulnerable to stock sell offs.
US Long Bond and Ten Year Note
Remarkable climb that probably signals risk concerns, even with the official buying support from the Fed and their friends. When the time comes it will be an epic short. But who can say when that will finally be.
"Do not be afraid of them. There is nothing concealed that will not be disclosed, or hidden that will not be revealed. What I tell you in the dark, speak in the daylight; what is whispered in your ear, proclaim from the rooftops." Matt. 10:26-27
The metal bears and bullion banks certainly get an 'A' for effort in this most impressive 'shock and awe' smackdown in the gold bullion futures. I was getting concerned about this sort of attack given the recent things floated out in the press about gold and its relationship to external events.
I had an email this morning saying that 'this proves that charting has no value in a manipulated market.' If this is your understanding of charting, that it is a sure thing, that perfect system you have been looking for, then you are right, it has no value to you. Maps do not take you where you wish to go; maps let you know where you are relative to your objective.
What charting provides is perspective, a visual representation or 'map' of the market.
More importantly, it helps us to understand the context of this sell off, which looks like the banks 'threw the kitchen sink' at the futures market over growing concern about the potential for a breakaway rally, and the physical offtake at the Comex getting out of control.
That this is US-centric selling program could not be more clear from this chart, a selling phenomenon which is repeated almost every day after the London PM fix and as the US markets open.
I do think the cup and handle formation is still active, although it has been pressed to the level at which we would be more concerned about follow through selling to the downside. As we have always said, in the event of a general selloff, a liquidity panic, everything will get sold, and the charts are trumped.
I was a little surprised that they could press it all the way down to 1199 even on an intraday, expecting 1204 to provide more solid support. But the trade is thin, and the markets are 'lightly regulated' by the CFTC under Gary Gensler (Goldman alumnus) to say the least.
Now having said all that, I am not overlooking a broader setup in the markets, created by the likes of Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan and their associated hedge fund cronies, in which the big financials are herding investors, shoving them around the allocation plate, keeping them moving, which is how they make their money through taxing transactions heavily with fees, commissions, and soft frauds.
Stocks are rather oversold in the short term, and the bonds are very overbought. As I mentioned yesterday, if the market does not 'crash' it would be quite seasonal for the bonds to come under bear attacks in July. Here is what that chart looks like.
Can they get ever more overbought? Sure, we just saw that sort of panic buying in the last great plunge in US equities. But historically bonds are well priced to put it mildly, and certainly not for anyone seeking value. I think a lot of tension in the market is due to the Jobs Report tomorrow, and the fact that most traders will be leaving on vacation after today.
As I recall Goldman was forecasting stocks to go lower, down to 950, if we broke support as we did a few days ago. I am interested to see if their forecasts match up with their own books. Personally I think that since they are a Fed supported bank, they should be required to disclose all their major positions in the particular, not aggregate or net, on a monthly delay at most, with weekly even better. That way the people would know if these monstrosity banks are acting honestly as a major bank supported by taxpayer dollars, or are they really enormous hedge funds which are entitled to a greater level of secrecy, but should be fully culpable for all their losses.
Although the gold bulls took a severe 'gut check' today, the cup and handle formation ultimately proved too powerful for the bears and bullion banks to break. It is an epic struggle, with much broader, perhaps even historic, implications than most of us can now realize, being too close to the event to see its true dimensions.
The weekly chart shows that gold is in a bull market. Anyone who does not acknowledge this, especially any metals analysts, are talking their books and private agendas. I can think of no other profession that allows for such blatant deceptions as the US financial sector.
The hysteria that accompanies every minor, albeit somewhat sharp, pullback in the price of gold borders on the ridiculous. It is often a 'psych job' by hedge funds, and unfortunately a mass of the deluded who simply do not understand currency markets and money. They think they do, but they don't, and in this case a little knowledge is a dangerous thing for their accounts.
Gold is a counter trade to currency risks. Monetary inflation is only one example of that risk. So the simplistic model is bewildered when gold rockets in the face of deflation caused by credit destruction and weak aggregate demand. What it fails to account for is the dramatic deterioration in the backing for the currency due to the corrosive decay of its underlying assets, the degraded ability to tax and service debt, and the actual assets held by the central bank.
And this is why at times some governments seek to control rival currencies such as gold. It is the economic equivalent of rolling back the odometer, or putting sawdust in the crankcase of a car which you wish to sell to the unsuspecting. It is a means to a control fraud, the deliberate hiding of the dilution of your currency to support a set of political and personal objectives. And this is why the citizenry, if they are wise, will insist on transparency in the metals markets and the asset holdings of their country.
The miners are doing reasonably well all things considered, but may not stand up well IF there is a sell off in the general equity markets.
You may as well hear it all now, because in the event of war, the truth will be the first victim.
Gold attempted to break out this morning hitting an intraday high around 1262, but was hit by concentrated selling designed to break the short term price trend. This is what is called a bear raid,
Each time gold attempts to break out, the shorts, in this case primarily the Wall Street banks and their associates, attempt to break the trend and push it lower. Each low is a little higher than the last, which is what gives the chart formation its shape of a rising triangle. As the energy behind the primary trend builds, the shorts must eventually give way and allow the price to rise, retreating to another line of resistance a bit higher.
Why is this happening? Why the preoccupation with gold and silver by the banks? Notice that gold and silver were exempted from proprietary trading restrictions for the big banks in the 'financial reform' legislation. The US government and its central bank view gold and silver as rivals to the US dollar, and 'the canary in the coal mine' that exposes their monetization efforts and threatens the Treasury bonds. It is characteristic of a culture that secretly abhors and dishonors the truth, paying lip service to whistleblowers while discouraging and ignoring them at every turn. "What is truth?" Whatever we permit to be discussed, whatever is published, and in the end, whatever we say it is.
There is a prevailing modern economic theory, probably best expressed in Larry Summer's paper on Gibson's Paradox, that by controlling the gold price one can favorably influence the interest rates paid on the long end of the yield curve. So as policy the US permits and even encourages the manipulation of key asset prices. Thus price manipulation of key commodities becomes a major plank in a program of 'extend and pretend.'
This to me typifies the policy errors and failures of Bernanke, Summers and Obama. They do not engage in honest discussion of the problems and genuine reform, preferring to attempt to band aid the problems, cut back room deals, and maintain the status quo to the extent that they feel the people will tolerate. They will be remembered in history as the high water mark in an era of corporatism, institutional dishonesty, and greed.
The parallels in the current situation with the Great Depression in the US are remarkable. FDR was a strong leader with a vision, and faced tremendous opposition to his reforms from a Republican minority and its appointees on the Supreme Court. He was considered a 'traitor to his class' and a champion of the common people.
Obama is also a traitor to 'his class,' all those who voted for change and reform which is what he had promised. But he lacks genuine leadership, vision, and moral courage, confusing leadership with empty words and gestures.
The Banks must be restrained, the financial system reformed, and the economy brought back into balance before there can be any sustained recovery.Those well-to-do that promote cutbacks and austerity measures now without substantial reform merely wish to shift the burden to the many while feeding on the public's suffering. "Now that I've gotten mine, screw everyone else, to make mine all the sweeter." But when the shoe is on the other foot, they whine and cry and threaten until they gorge themselves on subsidies.
"If you keep on gouging and devouring each other, watch out, you will be destroyed by each other. " Gal 5:13No other forecast is necessary.
As the 'handle' of the cup and handle chart formation formed, it slowly yielded enough points to finally place 'the lid' on the cup and hand, and firmly label the rims.
This allows us to set the minimum measuring objectives. There will probably be a run higher to about 1375, with the usual back and forth noise, after the breakout is achieved with a firm close above 1260 that sticks for a week.
Then we will experience the first major pullback, most likely back down to the 1330 level. And then the market will continue to rally up to the 1455 level.
I cannot furnish time frames for these moves at this time. But I suspect the move to 1375 will be fairly expeditious once the breakout is clearly accomplished.
All forecasts are estimates assuming some 'steady state background conditions. If the fundamental conditions of markets change, then the forecast must change to accommodate that.
As an aside, I can see where some chartists might try to feature the handle of this cup as a bearish rising or ascending wedge. This is a weaker interpretation given the greater substance of the cup and handle. It should also be remembered that bearish wedges only resolve lower about 50-60% of the time, and really are not safe to play until there is a clear breakdown. I have paid dearly to learn that lesson when trading stocks from the bear side.
Gold Weekly Chart
I think we can safely assume that the next 24 months will be extremely interesting.
Here is a very long term gold chart showing the entire inception at the end of the twenty year bear market.
The next leg which we are now entering projects to about 2180 - 2200 before we would expect to see a major protracted pullback.
I do not think that this bull market will be limited to only 'four legs,' which is just a bit of anthropomorphism, but I do strongly suspect that it will continue until about 2020. So we seem to have almost ten more years of upside ahead of us, and could be considered to be at the halfway point.
Gold has been gaining, on average about 70% every three years. So what is the end point?
Just for grins, I would expect gold to hit $6,300 near the end of this steady bull run, but will the bull market will end in a parabolic intra-month spike towards $10,000. This is likely to occur around 2018-2020.
Long term forecasts are fun, but there are so many exogenous variables that it is very hard to say what will happen even a few years out. Let's see how this breakout goes, and where we are at then end of this year first. The charts will inform us of any major trend changes. Charts provide perspective more than prediction.
Wash and rinse. Best way to get that stubborn money out of the public through fees, commissions, and of course front running for those perfect trading profits at the faux banks.
Chart Updated at Market Close
Now that option expiration is over gold is back to where it was a week ago, trying to break out of its large cup and handle formation. Silver is on the cusp of activating a massive and bullish multi-year chart formation of its own. It is an open question whether gold or silver will lead the way.
But I have to say that the CFTC is a disgrace. Eventually they will clean up their markets, but the foot dragging and dissembling is a mark against them. Chairman Gary Gensler knows better, but he is a Goldman alumnus, so what else would we expect? There are always many frustrated people in every organization trying to do a good job, so we should not paint them all with the same brush. The boss sets the tone, and Gensler's tone seems to be the status quo and crony capitalism. But that is the overall flavor of the Obama economic team.
Chart Updated at Market Close
Most people have a profound misunderstanding about the function that gold, and to a somewhat lesser extent silver, perform in the currency markets and wealth preservation trade.
The meme is that gold is a hedge against inflation. Over the past 100 years or so in particular, the greatest threat to the US dollar, and indeed to most currencies, has been inflation, which is the debasement of the value of a currency through printing or expanding supply faster than real growth in productive economic activity.
But was it really inflation that drove the gold hedge, or something more properly called 'currency risk.' Inflation through expansion of supply is just one facet of currency risk.
The risk today is not a gradual inflation through an overexpansion of the broad money supply, but something insidiously different, not seen since the last Great Depression. It is the risk of the default and devaluation, and the erosion of the assets backing the currency itself, which is not yet showing up in the conventional inflation figures.
What backs the US currency? Often referred to simply as 'the full faith and credit of the government,' it is the ability to collect taxes and service the debt with real returns, and of course and importantly the Fed's and the Treasury's balance sheets. I should have to say no more about this to anyone who has been following recent developments. The erosion of the ability of the government to produce revenue by taxing real income, and the rapidly declining quality of the assets held by the Fed, are obvious. Yes the US dollar may look good when compared some of the other wretched alternatives, but that appearance is like the portrait of Dorian Gray, not capturing the rapid decline in its own worth and well being.
So perhaps this will prove to be some help to those who are expecting debt deterioration and monetary deflation to deliver to them a stronger dollar and stable wealth. They fail to notice that this did NOT happen in the 1930's, and in fact quite the opposite occurred. I am now *hoping* for stagflation as an outcome because it seems better than the alternatives where the US and Europe now appear to be heading.
Yes, it can do so in the short term, particularly if you own the world's reserve currency, and that largely an illusion. But the decay is there for any who care to see it, and the rush to gold by the smarter money is also there to see, for those who will not willfully blind themselves to it.
There is nothing more disheartening than to watch otherwise good people fighting the last war, or perhaps most properly the wrong war, painfully unaware that their tactics and assumptions are misconstrued and self-defeating, and that they are committed to following 'leaders' who are articulate, persuasive, often very loud, and wrong.
