Shanghai Gold Exchange - A Steady Source of Demand for Physical Gold

"Since 2013 China continues to absorb physical gold from the rest of the world at a staggering pace.  Worth noting is that gold imported into the Chinese domestic market is not allowed to be returned in the foreseeable future. 

Because ownership and the disposition of these volumes of gold likely will be of great importance next time around the international monetary system is under stress, it’s well worth tracking China’s progress of imports – especially because the mainstream media and most consultancy firms are in denial of these events."

Koos Jansen, BullionStar


"Gold is unique among assets, in that it is not issued by any government or central bank, which means that its value is not influenced by political decisions or the solvency of one institution or another."

Salvatore Rossi, Chief of the Central Bank of Italy, 30 Sept 2013

Related:   The Chinese Gold Market Essentials Guide

Weekly Gold and Silver Flows In Funds and ETFs

Recent history suggests that gold and silver are both putting durable bottoms based on the composition of the positions in the futures market and the extreme of the decline in price.

The dichotomy between gold and silver outflows with both metals in price declines is interesting, to say the least. Physical gold is flowing out of the funds and ETFs, while silver is actually increasing.

It is telling us something about how funds and ETFs might add to their gold holdings when the price declines stop and the bull rally begins anew.

One difference is that the central banks do not have large physical holdings of silver that they are prepared to lease out to private concerns.

The use of this extreme leverage in physical gold in the face of steady buying and competing claims is like combining potassium nitrate and concentrated sulfuric acid.

And no one could have seen it coming.

Draining Physical Gold From Funds and Trusts To Supply the Markets of Asia - An Extreme In Speculation

Numbered — God has numbered your reign, and will end it.
Weighed — you are weighed on the scales, and found wanting.
Divided — your power will be divided up and given to others.

Daniel 5:25-28


“QE [quantitative easing] puts beer goggles on investors by creating a line of sight where everything looks good."

Peter Boockvar

It is interesting, but little noted, that during similar price declines, physical gold is removed from the funds and trusts, while silver remains almost untouched.

That is because the 'gold float' of physical gold available to supply the steadily aggressive demand is critically low, whereas silver, while also beaten down by speculators, sees no decline, because there is an adequate supply of physical silver, for now.

Compared to the physical delivery market of Shanghai, the NY Comex looks like a game of Liar's Poker, an exercise in pure speculation, almost like a bucket shop.

The number of 'claims per ounce' in gold has risen once again to 315 claims per ounce offered at these prices.

In the way that the Fed implements it, Quantitative Easing is like beer goggles for financial paper.

A purposely misaligned, an arbitrary valuation and mispricing of risk in any asset class, commodity or currency, can be sustained only by force and fraud. As the fraud becomes weaker and less effective, the force must increase.  Eventually the scheme breaks down, and a more market-based equilibrium will reassert its presence. That is monetary or value theory based on history. 

Gold is moving from West to East, and is unlikely to return anytime soon, and at anything near to these prices.

Our markets will have been weighed, and found wanting.

Gold Is Flowing From West to East - Often Via Switzerland's Refineries

You have often heard me say that 'gold is flowing from West to East.'

Much of that gold flow is through the refineries of Switzerland, where London good and NY gold bars are converted to the kilo specifications demanded by the Asian markets.

Most of the gold into Switzerland, by far, is coming from the London bullion market. With lesser amounts coming from the US and from Turkey. I noted here the other week that Turkish banks were selling gold reserves to support the lira.

You have seen the estimates of the physical gold floats in London shown here from time to time. That float has dwindled considerably. And this is why it is important.

And where does the gold go after it leaves Switzerland? As you can see below, it is by far flowing into China, India, and then Thailand, Singapore, and the UAE.

Physical gold is flowing from West to East.  And the West is scraping the bottom of the barrel, at least at these prices.

Gold Is Running Inverse to the US Dollar For Now And Why This Matters

I read an interesting article yesterday, the point of which was that the price of gold is running as the inverse of the Chinese Yuan.  Bing, bang, boom, end of story.

And there may be some truth to that.  But it is hardly the whole story.

When looking for correlations, one has to consider a number of elements, and try to sort out correlations that are often mixed, and what is coincident moreso than causative.

Below is a chart that compares the price of gold with the inverse of the US Dollar Index (DX).

And it should be noted that this is the price of gold in Dollars.  And so there will always be some effect of the value of the dollar in this, since gold is a world currency and not specifically American.

In my own studies, and multivariate correlation analysis, sometimes gold runs inversely to the dollar, but at other times it runs with it, or somewhat indifferently to it.

So what this shows is the obvious, that there are a number of things that effect its price, and may do so differently at different times.

As I have noted here, many times over the past year or so, the price of gold has been running inverse to the Dollar because it appears that major playrs and hedge funds are trading gold as a currency cross, without regard to its supply and demand as a commodity money, as opposed to a central bank fiat currency. And that at some point this is going to lead to a 'break' in the market.

But I think that a correlation to the Yuan here is probably misplaced. Although it is becoming increasing important on the world stage because of the spectacular growth of its domestic economy, the Chinese Yuan is not driving the value of the US Dollar. And for that matter, it is not even included in the weighting of the Dollar DX Index.

Why quibble though?

The important point is that gold is being traded in the currency crosses. This is not always the case, but sometimes it is. And more importantly, the price of gold is being heavily gamed by speculators, and with increasing leverage if the indications we have are correct.

And because of this, at some point gold, which is somewhat unique because it is a commodity currency, is going to assert its independent nature.  And it may very well blow a hole in the speculative scheming that has been allowed to go on for years, without being checked and moderated by the regulators, even as other paper asset bubbles have been allowed to grow.

It has done so even in the recent past, as it exploded up to $1900, after years of steady price suppression.  And then it fell back to the same old same old, but at a much higher base price than it had been at for almost twenty years.

What changed you might ask?  The disgorgement of gold by the Western Banks encountered a steady and determined accumulation of the physical metal in Asia and the Mideast.  Because of this global central banks went from net sellers to net accumulators.  This trend is well documented and unmistakable.

For those who say that there is no price manipulation of gold, even at this point with all that has been uncovered in the markets, I say have a good day.  Because that debate is surely over, except for the most stubbornly and willfully blind to what is painfully obvious to anyone who carefully watches the trading in the metals as it happens with an open mind to the data.

But again, why quibble?

Let's see how this unfolds, and keep an eye on the 'gold float' which is the physical gold bullion that is available for delivery into the markets of Asia.  Because it is being steadily accumulated there, and is not likely to be reintroduced into the Western markets, except at significantly higher prices.

And in this case, if I and others are correct in our analysis, let the devil take the hindmost when the reversion to the fundamentals occurs, which I believe that it will, and with a vengeance.  It always does, but eventually.  And that is where trading and prudent portfolio management come in to play.

Markets go to extremes because most speculators are clever, but not wise.  They will keep on a trend and a 'winning' trade often until it is utterly exhausted, and then run for the exits, leaving the carnage they leave behind to be taken care of by others.  And all that you will see of them is when they come back for a handout, a bailout, for the very damage that they themselves caused, but will blame on others.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - On Top of the World - Le Dénouement, à la Chinoise

“On top of the world,
Or in the depths of despair—
Happy alone is the soul that loves."

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe,  Klärchens Lied, aus Egmont

Stocks were on a wild tear higher.

Let's chalk this one up to the words of Fed Chair Jay Powell who sees a strong economy permitting more interest rate increases.

Gold and silver were taken out to the woodshed and beaten lower, with the Dollar slightly higher.

Stocks are putting in another blow off top. Don't try and get in front of them, but this one will end up like the rest.

Our defining character is fraud in the service of Mammon.

And the Deep State is howling a hurricane.

Trumpolini is fortunate in his opposition.  Which is too bad, because he brings out the worst in his followers.  And unfortunately the opposition tries to answer in kind.   Too bad. Darkness cannot defeat darkness.

Little Dolly has been sitting in my lap, shivering with fear, since a cold front bringing thunderstorms has started rolling through. 

As a reminder, there will be a stock options expiration at the end of this week.

And a Comex precious metals option expiration next week on Thursday, the 26th.

The struggle to cover the physical gold withdrawals from the Hong Kong Comex listed warehouses continues. Not to mention the less visible, like Singapore.

There is certainly nothing happening with the gold warehouses in New York.  It is locked down tight, like a morgue.

Gold is flowing from West to East. It is the most striking phenomenon of modern monetary developments. And yet so few see it, and fewer remark on it.

Smells like teen spirit. Or is that desperation? The price action tells us something. What is it?

This is quite a wild party being thrown for us by the elite—   a bonfire of the vanities, we suspect. Part three, le dénouement.

And they all fall down.

Need little, want less, love more. For those who abide in love abide in God, and God in them.

Have a pleasant evening.

Gold and Silver Holdings of Trusts and Funds - Price Manipulation: The Thing Speaks For Itself

Dangerous leverage in the gold markets seems to be pressing the ready supply of physical gold, even prompting withdrawals and redemptions from the trust and funds on relatively small price swings, as opposed to the silver market where supply is adequate.

If there is a dislocation in the physical gold market, which some have suggested as a possible outcome, then res ipsa loquitur. 'the thing speaks for itself'. 

There should be little surprise or debate with regard to the negligence of the regulators of the markets and those engaging in price manipulation including the Fed, the SEC, and the CFTC. 

The market price manipulators have been too long free to act with near impunity, much as Bernie Madoff had been able to do before his own price manipulation scheme toppled over, with the regulators and the Banks turning a blind eye to systematic fraud.

Don't Believe Your Lying Eyes: Gold Does Not Offer a Safe Harbor Against Financial Crises

"Gold has worked down from Alexander's time... When something holds good for two thousand years I do not believe it can be so because of prejudice or mistaken theory."

Bernard Baruch


"After we came out of the church, we stood talking for some time together of Bishop Berkeley's ingenious sophistry to prove the nonexistence of matter, and that every thing in the universe is merely ideal.

I observed, that though we are satisfied his doctrine is not true, it is impossible to refute it.

I never shall forget the alacrity with which Johnson answered, striking his foot with mighty force against a large stone, till he rebounded from it--

"I refute it, thus!"

Boswell, Life of Samuel Johnson


"For centuries, gold had a profound impact on history, as a symbol and a storehouse of wealth accepted universally around the world. Gold functions as a medium of exchange, particularly in areas where currencies are distrusted.

Yet gold has not been without controversy. The influential economist, John Maynard Keynes, referred to gold as a 'barbarous relic.' Later in the 20th century, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, William McChesney Martin, praised gold as 'a beautiful and noble metal. What is barbarous,' Martin said, 'is man’s enslavement to gold for monetary purposes.' Clearly, this precious metal has aroused great passion. It undoubtedly will continue to do so long into the future."

New York Federal Reserve


"The commerce and industry of the country, however, it must be acknowledged,though they may be somewhat augmented, cannot be altogether so secure, when they are thus, as it were, suspended upon the Daedalian wings of paper money, as when they travel about upon the solid ground of gold and silver.

Over and above the accidents to which they are exposed from the unskilfulness of the conductors of this paper money, they are liable to several others, from which no prudence or skill of those conductors can guard them."

Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations

Gold has moved in price from $250 in the year 2000 to roughly $1,350 today. In other currencies the move has been much more pronounced.

The period of 1996-2000 is a good time to pick a start for this monetary episode, because this is when the global monetary regime, which had been in place since the end of WW II with a significant change made by fiat in 1971, began to change, substantially in the most proper sense of the word. 

Some like to cherry pick a study of recent gold performance from the prior top of $1,900, but that says more about them and their intentions than it does about gold.  They know that all bull markets climb a wall of worry and can offer significant retracements from new highs while remaining intact.

And given the structure of global supply and demand, and the vast movements in the global economy, it is likely to go much higher, unless it becomes a fixed asset in a global monetary system once again and its price becomes set by fiat.

More likely it will become a floating asset with a more 'official' status than it has today when some central bankers will hardly recognize its existence in public, although they own it, and worry over it in private.

As shown in the second last quote above from the NY Fed, which unfortunately is no longer found on their web site, some central bankers find the attractive, and yet restraining, qualities of gold as a standard to be cloying, because it restrains their degrees of freedom to act as they would like.

And even when it is not a standard it does tend to utter some 'unpleasant truths.' But there is no denying its role as a refuge during periods of monetary instability, especially for those who are not currently holding the financial power.

And gold is certainly not the only hedge, and only safe harbor available.  But that is a far cry from saying it has not served many people very well during serious financial crises, and worked exceptionally to retain its value during a currency crisis and reissue/reflation.  Even a cursory look at historical crises show that.   The value is to study the nature of crises, and to understand the situation one has, not the one you wish you had, or even worse, the one that serves your mistaken point of view.

By the way, I am not advocating a gold standard as a cure for our ills. What our financial system requires is genuine reform from top to bottom. It is capable of corrupting, for at least a protracted period of time, virtually any single solution that one can imagine.  Look what they have done to the civic impulse for genuine change that became that industry-born frankenstein, Dodd-Frank.

They create a desert, and whimsically call it the 'new normal.'

So let us then consider this paper below, titled Gold Has Never Been a Great Hedge Against Bad Economic Times.

Not meaning to be rude, but there are some telling flaws in this paper.  But even then I would not have been moved to respond to it, if they had not had the cheek to use the word 'never' in the title, and to employ such sloppy criteria in their hypothesis as 'bad economic times' and 'major macroeconomic declines,' which they tend to confute with stock market performance.

And that is not to say that any very broad sweep of data over time, without sufficient attention to the particular character and context of the various situations described within, can easily be misleading, or be used to 'prove' something else when using it to draw broad and poorly defined conclusions.

What kind of crisis was it?  Was it a crisis period or not?  What caused it, what policy actions helped to precipitate it, if any, and what were the policy responses?  How are you measuring the asset? Was the change uniform, or different across areas and economies, and what were those differences?

In the Weimar inflation, for example, gold among other assets was a spectacular hedge in a financial crisis, but so were some stocks.   So one can see that using the 'stock market' as your defining variable of a macroeconomic disaster might not be effective.  This is not a quibble.  It is calling out some very fuzzy thinking which characterizes this analysis, that does not support such a sweeping hypothesis.

It may surprise you, but not all crises are the same. And I do not hold gold to be a panacea, not at all. Nor do I consider it to be a outlier or aberration, which is the converse of this, that some others seem to do. 'Gold has never been a hedge against bad economic times.' The use of the word 'never' is a deep tell about their mindset and predisposition.

What variables do tend to have a correlation with gold over periods of crisis?  I have found in my own research that they tend to be risk spreads in bonds, the growth in the broadest money supply, other risk factors, and of course the relative strength of the currency in which you are expressing gold's value.   But even this is not uniform over time, especially in non-crisis or managed price periods, such as when gold is fixed as a 'standard.'

Most assets will smooth out over a long period of time, unless they are artificial constructs,like some stock indices, which are altered by throwing losers out and putting winners in to achieve a semblance of growth.

There is an ebb and flow in everything.

It takes someone with the time and ability and most importantly the open, inquisitive mind not bound by some school of thought or orthodoxy to go into the various situations where something has happened, and happened with a particular cause and effect that was widely acknowledged, in order to really understand the mechanisms and nature of a thing.

When I first began studying money as a practical consequence of my international business dealings, and later with first hand experience to the Russian currency crisis, I could have given two hoots about gold or silver.  They were never even mentioned in any of my business or economic courses.  But later as I continued to study this as an avocation, their role in the history of money and current events could not be ignored.

But never mind what is happening all around you.  Don't buy any gold, and don't like it. Laugh at the rest of the world which is buying it.  Tell them to eat trillion dollar platinum coins because you say so.  It doesn't matter. Keep believing, believe in memes and quaint canards and slogans like the 'efficient market theory' and 'printing money endlessly doesn't matter.' Keep applying top down monetary stimulus and ignoring the results of your serial policy errors and asset bubbles.

So called experts have their noses stuck so deeply into 'what everyone in their profession knows' as an accepted orthodoxy that they can understandably fail to see the forest for the trees. They miss the big changes, the 'sea-changes.'  They are well trained for a world that is changing all around them, using inflexible models too often based on deeply flawed assumptions.

In 2006, the central banks of the world became net buyers of gold bullion for the first time in 30 years, and are continuing to do so in a very big way. Gold has been moving en masse to the emerging economies of Asia, the biggest beneficiaries of 'globalisation.'

And there is a reason for this, that is not based in some quirk or personal idiosyncrasy.

But arguments based on faulty hypotheses such as this paper, or even worse, on almost nonsensical or ad hominem arguments, seem to poke their heads up every so often, either when the banks, or some other major players, get their panties in a bunch because of their exposure to bad bets in the metals markets, or when some central banks start to feel nervous about their ability to manage the markets in their currencies to achieve their financial engineering goals.

Those economic policy goals get in trouble, by the way, because the policy itself is quite possibly running against the markets, and is also misdirected in addition to being ineffective.  We have certainly had enough first hand experience in this for the the past twenty years or so.

But at the end of the day, people may say what they will, but money talks. The real economy has a message to tell for those who will listen to it.   Or not.

There will be those who will continue to say, 'this is not happening' even while a tsunami of change rolls over them.   That is their prerogative.

The time for warnings was then.  This is now.

And events are underway that will have something like the character of a force of nature.

GOLD HAS NEVER BEEN A GREAT HEDGE AGAINST BAD ECONOMIC TIMES: Evidence from decades of US and global data

Gold has not served very well as a hedge against bad macroeconomic and stock market outcomes. That is the central conclusion of research by Professors Robert Barro and Sanjay Misra, published in the August 2016 issue of the Economic Journal. Their study draws on evidence from long-term US data on gold returns, as well as gold returns during some of the worst macroeconomic disasters experienced across the world.

Gold has historically played a prominent role in transactions among financial institutions even in modern systems that rely on paper money. What’s more, many observers think that gold provides a hedge against major macroeconomic declines. But after assessing long-term US data on gold returns, the new research finds that gold has not served consistently as a hedge against large declines in real GDP or real stock prices.

From 1836 to 2011, gold delivered low average real price appreciation and experienced high average volatility. The mean real rate of price change was 1.1% per year, close to the 1% average real rate of return on three-month US Treasury Bills and comparable assets. The standard deviation of annual gold returns was 13.7%, almost as high as the 16.7% on the US stock market...

Royal Economic Society, Gold Has Never Been a Great Hedge Against Bad Economic Times

NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds - Market Dislocation

Again the premiums to NAV are interesting.   Sprott gold is still positive, with Sprott silver slightly at a discount.

The discount on the Central Fund has continued to narrow.

As you may recall, I 'forecasted' at the beginning of this year that the shortages in physical gold in London would start manifesting this month.

That may have been delayed a bit through the relief to the physical supply being received from the re-repatriation of the Venezuela gold.

Unless something radically changes I do still believe that we will be seeing a 'break' in the physical market at some point in the not too distant future.

We may already be seeing indications of this in some of the pricing, although the official price of gold has become dominated by a currency trade without respect for physical supply and demand.  And as a currency it has been caught up in the trading centered on the questions and concerns raised by Brexit.

And therein lies the roots of the 'break' in the physical and paper markets should it occur.  Because unlike a sovereign currency, no central bank can print additional physical bullion, but only the appearance of it.    And that central bank perception game has grown very old.

Another Year of Insubstantial Gold Trading in the New York Market

Looking back, it is evident from the charts below that 2015 was another year of decline for physical gold deliveries in New York.  This is thought to be a benign phenomenon by some.

And one might certainly question how much of that 'stockpile' of gold held in storage is unencumbered, and not subject to multiple hypothecation.

As you know I think that such a decline in the connection to the fundamental flows of a physical commodity creates a potentially dangerous situation, especially in a climate in which most of the major markets have shown themselves to have been systematically rigged by corrupt trading institutions.

The second chart shows how dramatically the physical gold market has moved to the East, leaving both New York and London as influential to price while becoming increasingly insubstantial.

Finally the third chart shows that the New York market still maintains a strong physical delivery function for silver. This is largely thanks to CNT, which is a major supplier of silver to the Mint among other things.

Related:  In China Everyone Can Buy Gold at the Shanghai Gold Exchange - Koos Jansen

Silk Road Gold Demand Taking All New Mine Production and More - A Game of Consequences

'Books were the proper remedy: books of vivid human import, forcing upon their minds the issues, pleasures, busyness, importance and immediacy of that life in which they stand; books of smiling or heroic temper, to excite or to console; books of a large design, shadowing the complexity of that game of consequences to which we all sit down, the hanger-back not least.'

Robert Louis Stevenson, Old Mortality


"When an official market or cartel overvalues one type of money or asset and undervalues another with respect to its fair market value and risks, the undervalued money or asset will leave the country as best it can, or will disappear from circulation into hoards, while the overvalued money or assets will flood into circulation."

Murray Rothbard, Gresham's Law


"There is not a crime, there is not a dodge, there is not a trick, there is not a swindle, there is not a vice, that does not live by secrecy."

Joseph Pulitzer

Nick Laird of goldchartsrus.com has provided the latest statistics on the consumption of gold by the 'Silk Road' countries.

The monthly demand from these nations as shown below has grown five-fold compared what it was prior to 2008.

In the latest month their total consumption, that is private purchasing in addition to publicly disclosed official reserves, was 365 tonnes.

Nick has estimated global production as averaging about 260 tonnes per month.

This represents a shortfall of about 105 tonnes per month to be drawn from existing supplies.  This shortfall appears to be growing proportionately with increasing demand, visible on the first chart below.

So this is one reason why we have been seeing the existing stocks of gold around the world drawn down to cover the steadily growing demand from these countries.  And as you may recall, the central banks of the world became net buyers of gold around 2008.

Comex has little available stocks in its domestic warehouses compared to this demand, All of the gold in all the warehouses, whether it is for sale or not, if taken and liquidated is just over 200 tonnes as is shown on the report below.

London is a more substantial source of bullion, but is running down it's supply as we have seen in the 'gold float' analysis also included below.

Interestingly enough, the year over year drawdown in the London free float is about 100 tonnes per month.

There is also supply in ETFs and Trusts.  This too has been drawn down steadily, particularly since 2013.

These are not precise figures, but estimates gleaning from public sources.  I suspect the supply numbers are 'generous' with regard to the free float and the unencumbered nature of gold through multiple claims and leasing, but that is conjecture.

But no wonder the Indian government is so anxious to persuade their people to turn their gold into synthetic paper gold, and allow it to be hypothecated into the markets.  And no wonder that the Fed told the German government that their gold was temporarily inconvenienced until 2019.  And no wonder Venezuela is being leaned on heavily to give back the gold that it so recently repatriated so it may be sold.

I wonder what it would take to increase mine production and bring more gold in as scrap and private sales to meet this growing demand.  Higher prices perhaps?

And if so, then perhaps knocking the price down so aggressively, crippling the precious metals mining industry, is not a fruitful idea for the longer term.  Gold supply is not so easily manageable as a fiat currency's may be.

Given the current rate of growth in demand and the current state of supply, next year could be interesting.  Still, I never like to underestimate the 'resourcefulness' of the central banks, especially when they are operating in relative secrecy. And it never fails to surprise me at how reluctant the various groups of the status quo are to discuss these things except on their own terms, and within their own narrative.

And so such great events can happen slowly, and largely hidden and unremarked, until they seemingly burst upon the scene, speaking unpleasant truths.

'Silk Road' Countries' Gold Reserves and Demand Accumulation Has Grown 450% Since 2008

Silk road total demand, including the growth of official reserves and commercial imports, has risen from 1,493 tonnes in the year 2000 to over 27,087 tonnes in 2015.

The greatest increase has been since the global financial crisis in 2008 with an astonishing increase of 450% over the total amounts accumulated until then.

As you may recall, gold was ending its long bear market with a price bottom and a long climb higher shortly after the currency crises of Asia and Russia in the 1990's.

Silk Road demand has easily exceeded total global mine production for the last two years. And quite  Therefore, in addition to mining, other sources of gold have had to be found.  This may include scrap, and gold held by other entities.

Has this surge in gold demand been an uniquely Chinese government phenomenon?  Hardly.

In the second chart I show all the gold reserve increases for China AND Russia from the year 2000. They account for only about 11.4% of the growth in gold demand from the 'Silk Road' countries.

It is interesting to match this with the steady declines in Western gold vaults and the increased leverage in gold trading, what some call 'synthetic gold,' that became apparent in 2013.

I show that in the third chart vis a vis the Comex, and the fourth chart for the London Vaults.

The fifth chart compares the relative physical deliveries on the Shanghai Exchange and the NY Comex.

I am not trying to persuade or convince anyone, or argue with anyone, and certainly not sell anything.
Here are the facts as I have been able to discover them, and I cannot control what people may choose to think or not to think about them.

The data suggests that the volume of gold increased dramatically in 2013, when measures seem to have been taken to dampen the large increase in price up to the $1900 level, through rather clumsily determined selling programs in quiet hours.

This increased flow of bullion may be the result of Gresham's Law, which states that 'when a government overvalues one type of money and undervalues another, the undervalued money will leave the country or disappear from circulation into hoards, while the overvalued money will flood into circulation.'

The data suggests that gold is very underpriced in US dollars because of an effort to make the dollar appear to be strong and gold to be disreputable as an alternative store of wealth.  Why should gold be more favored than cash money in their own currencies, which central bankers would also like to eliminate to smooth the way for further policy blundering and experimentation.

They are hardly without better alternatives to this.  Except of course for their pride, and insular group thinking, and of course the credibility trap that does not allow for frank discussions of what the problems really are and how we might move along.  But alas, that is not favored by The Banks and the moneyed interests.  And so the very serious people are loathe to even raise the subject of genuine reform in a serious conversation, except in some mockery of a charade.

And the Congress is no better.  The Congress may not know when it is talking nonsense about the economic situation, but the financiers, the Banks, and their hired hands do, but don't care.

Whatever else someone may say about this, it is apparent by any examination of the figures that gold bullion is flowing from West to East, and in some fairly consequential and increasing volumes.

The Silk Road has added over 25,000 tonnes of gold in the last fifteen years.  The gold miners are hardly in a position to increase production and search for new supply.  A gold mine takes four or more years to bring into production.

According to Nick Laird's figures, monthly global mining production is about 260 tonnes, and monthly demand is about 357 tonnes.  I have included a list of the top gold producing countries  in chart six.

Where will the supply for the Silk Road demand come from over the next five years, as it continues to grow faster than mining and even scrap production?

These two charts are from Nick Laird at goldchartsrus.com, with my annotations.

Shanghai Gold Deliveries and Deliveries on the Comex - The 'Rest of the World' According To Bloomberg

Gresham's law is an economic principle that states 'when a government overvalues one type of money and undervalues another, the undervalued money will leave the country or disappear from circulation into hoards, while the overvalued money will flood into circulation.'

Notice the 'sea change' that occurred with Shanghai gold flows starting in 2013.

And notice how the Western financial media views this phenomenon.

China Savers Buying Gold As 'Rest of the World' Exits

The 'Rest of the World' apparently does not include India, Russia, Turkey, much of the Mideast, and the European central banks who have been busy trying to repatriate their gold from New York and London.

I have included a chart showing 'Silk Road' gold consumption below.

In addition to all the wealthy individuals in the US and UK who are buying it for their own private vaults.

Who are the idiots who own most of the gold in the central bank crowd anyway?  The numbers are a bit hard to come by because for some reason the bankers are notoriously secretive in response to questions.

The 'official gold reserves' of all central banks in the world is also included below.  And the biggest goldbugs are the US, Germany, Italy, France, the IMF, Russia, China, Switzerland, Japan and the Netherlands.

True, a few central banks have disgorged some of their gold. The UK sold quite a bit of their sovereign reserves at the bottom, the lowest price for gold in dollars. Brown's Bottom it was called, presumably to rescue some 'trading houses' who were caught short.

"We looked into the abyss if the gold price rose further. A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake. Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, manage it."

Sir Eddie George, Bank of England, September 1999

One might wonder what has some of the NY and London banking crowd so worked up?  What have they gotten themselves into now?  Their spokesmodels have been quite active in the media lately.

I am sure the truth of this will come out some day.  Most likely over some long weekend.

This is how Nixon unilaterally took the US off the international gold standard, and declared a new fiat regime for 'the rest of the world' under the rule of the US dollar reserve, thereby rewriting the Bretton Woods agreement by executive decree.

Is it true that only a few 'goldbugs' really care about this and no one else?

Most of the central banks know the truth of things.  They are just keeping quiet about it for now, for whatever reason.  I suspect that they are receiving pressure related to the antics of one or more of the Banks.

"Gold is unique among assets, in that it is not issued by any government or central bank, which means that its value is not influenced by political decisions or the solvency of one institution or another."

Salvatore Rossi, Central Bank of Italy, 30 Sept 2013

Do these fellows take us for complete fools?  Really?