SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts

The US markets closed early in a light holiday trade that was largely technical.

I think if the financiers could see their future they would wish that the mountains would fall on them now to hide their shame.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

The rhetoric is getting a bit thick.

Talk is cheap. Stand and deliver.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts

Quiet trading with a slight upward drift as expected.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday

Intraday commentary on the precious metals market is here.

As a reminder this is a holiday week in the US as the markets will be closed on Thursday, July 4 for Independence Day.

And a Happy Canada Day for my many friends and acquaintances in that most decent and honorable of countries. 

I remember,  about twenty years ago, landing in Ottawa. As I came up to passport control, I handed over my paper driver's license with no picture.

"Have you no passport? Is this how you come into a foreign country?" the official asked, holding up my piece of paper with an obvious disdain. "Yes sir I do, and I am very sorry for this. But I did not think to bring it, because since my earliest days growing up not all that far from the Niagara border, I have always considered Canada like a second home."

And with an incredulous laugh at my cheek, and a sweeping wave of his hand, he let me through. That would probably not work so well these days, but this is a true story.

For years when we crossed the border at Niagara we only had to state where we were born and were waved through. I had never once thought of Canada as a foreign land. My wife and I have spent many happy days on vacation and on business in Toronto, Niagara, Montreal, Ottawa, and Québec City.   I have been to Vancouver several times, but never on holiday. Alas, those days are no more.

I think we can expect some interesting things in the precious metals this week.

Typically the more senior people on Wall Street will leave on Tuesday evening for their holiday in the Hamptons.

So trading will be light. Interestingly enough a fairly important Jobs Report is due on Friday morning, and they do not seem to be delaying this until next week. Expected is +175,000 jobs.  As you may recall the financiers like to raid the metals on a Non-Farm Payrolls day.

Tomorrow is 'rally day' on the equity exchange so let's see if the bulls can pull themselves together for one last market operation before their begin their festivities.

I do not think most realize the shocking nature of this excessive move downward in gold and silver.

The manipulation in the paper markets is there for all to see. I cannot help but laugh quietly every time I hear the Lord Haw Haws and the spokesmodels on the financial networks talking about how gold and silver have fallen into disfavor, and how low the volume of physical purchasing has been. They desire what they do not have!

One can keep doubling down on a bluff for too long, and eventually they will be called, and their cards must be shown.

Nothing is more clear to me that the paper gold and silver that has been shorted cannot possibly be covered. It has gone entirely too far. And further price declines to free up bullion from the ETFs, as I have pointed out, is very counter-productive because it is now just stimulating more physical buying in size.

We are entering a new phase of the currency wars, and the metals bears and financiers are worried, despite their bluff and bravado. Their arrogance is so typical as they reach the end of their game.

Yes they are still dangerous in the short term, but they must feel the fear creeping up their spines.  One after another their control frauds and schemes are being exposed.  Their perfidy is there for all to see.

They have been weighed, and are found wanting.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday

As a reminder this is a holiday shortened week in the States, with the 4 July holiday on Thursday.

Volumes will be increasingly light after tomorrow afternoon.

Canada was closed for their own celebration today. Happy Canada Day to all my many friends in that wonderful and decent country.

Surrender at Yorktown: 'The World Turned Upside Down'

“You cannot conquer an idea with an army.”

Thomas Paine


"There is nothing so powerful as an idea whose time has come."

Victor Hugo

For all the disappointing deeds of the last Presidency, and there were too many, was their anything more unworthy than the deliberate vilification of their friends and allies of long standing for daring to tell the truth that they did not wish to hear?

Nous sommes désolés.

NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds - Weighed, and Found Wanting

Premiums remain thin and oriented towards access to physical metal in the Sprott funds.

We may get yet another 'gut check' if the specs pile on the bounce.   That is how these bluffs run.

But I get the sense that the tide is turning, in many things and matters.

The physical side, the reality of this trade, is starting to assert its power in ways that are hard to resist or ignore.  It may not seem like it because it happens gradually, but it is happening.

These naked short sellers are bully boys and charlatans.  They don't have the goods. They don't have the stuff.  They are in control only while you play their game in their way.  They have been weighed and are found wanting.  They have sown the wind, and will reap the whirlwind.  They have sold what they do not own.  And they are fearful at being called to account on it, as well they should be.

Stand and deliver.

Corporate Media: Journalism In the Service of the Powerful Few

"But the biggest clue that Sorkin's take on Greenwald was no accident came in the rest of that same Squawk Box appearance:

"I feel like, A, we've screwed this up, even letting him get to Russia. B, clearly the Chinese hate us to even let him out of the country.

I would arrest him . . . and now I would almost arrest Glenn Greenwald, who's the journalist who seems to want to help him get to Ecuador."

"...As a journalist, when you start speaking about political power in the first person plural, it's pretty much glue-factory time."

Matt Taibbi, All Journalism Is Advocacy Journalism


"And remember, where you have a concentration of power in a few hands, all too frequently men with the mentality of gangsters get control. History has proven that."

John Dalberg Lord Acton

While I obviously can not agree with everything in this long documentary, Orwell Rolls In His Grave, I found the discussion and examples to be interesting.

I have included a short video clip concerning the standard visual media set piece afterwards just for fun.

The problem is not that there is advocacy in journalism. There is always advocacy in journalism, even despite a striving for objectivity. Taibbi goes to some lengths to show this in the piece I quoted from above.

The problem is the concentration of ownership in a few powerful hands, and the accompanying diminishment of the exposure of all the facts and perspectives. Even deciding what is not covered becomes a form of censorship.

Like the deregulation of the financial industry, the concentration of the media in a relatively few corporate hands was a ongoing trend that took a great leap forward under the presidency of Bill Clinton, and was then continued and reinforced under George Bush and Barack Obama. It was the conscious undoing of reforms from past lessons learned.

It is the concentration of ownership of the corporate media that is at the heart of the problem of the decline of independent journalistic standards. That, and the culture of unprincipled expediency in the service of power and shameless greed.

We are not responsible, but are culpable to the extent we accept this decline in decency and justice, even by doing nothing as simple as passing on a leaflet, conveniently electronic these days. As Sophie Scholl once said, many years ago in Munich, a people deserve the government which they are willing to tolerate.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Oh Say Can You See

The propaganda coming out of the mainstream media is reaching a crescendo.   And the carnies on the financial networks are getting so obvious and clumsy it is almost funny, like watching a bad magic show.

Next week will be lightly traded in the States because of the Thursday national holiday.

If the specs start piling on in the metals they will likely get another 'gut check' or two in the off hours because that is often how these things go in dysfunctional markets as are common in New York and London these days.

The physical markets opening in Asia and Russia are going to turn NY and London into the carnival sideshows that they deserve to be.

I would like to see gold take out its 50 Day Moving Average. That is a technical signal that could spark a rather robust reversal.

Someone may be getting set up to take a beating a little later this year. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. The lack of transparency in the markets makes good forecasting difficult. The use of offshore entities, trading gimmicks, and shell companies by some of the big financials is a serious problem.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Paint Spills Off Tape a Bit Into End of Quarter

And the second quarter is finally over.

Stocks extended their rally in a choppy trade for much of the day but then slumped into the close as traders took profits and squared up ahead of a holiday shortened week.

As a reminder there will be no trading in the US on Thursday, 4 July, and the volume on Wednesday and Friday is likely to be rather light. So I think we will see a lot of 'technical trading' unless something happens.

I do think these markets have been so corrupted by gimmicks that they have become virtually dysfunctional to the real economy.

Have a pleasant weekend.

NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds - Silver Snaps Back

Premiums are still quite weak, but the snapback in silver is a classic.

The Gold/Silver ratio is still high but nowhere near the 66 it was hitting.

This has been a market operation brought to you by your financial sector.

And there will be repercussions and consequences in the real world for what they have done.

There is no free lunch, even in control frauds.

Are you truly a den of vipers and thieves? Give the gold you have taken back to the German people to whom it rightfully belongs.

Tonnes of Gold Removed From the Major ETFs and the COMEX Since January 1

Considering the theory that the purpose of this market operation was designed to take the price of gold lower since the first of the year, and to free up bullion to relieve certain stresses in delivery, I was wondering if we could quantify the results of it in any way.

With the help of Nick at Sharelynx.com, the keeper of records and master of charts,  I was able to calculate the approximate number of tonnes of inventory that were released into the market, or some private storage area perhaps, from the top funds and exchanges in the western world. The time period is from the beginning of this year through 26 June.

If this is correct, and the hypothesis is correct, then it is 'mission accomplished.'

There should be no excuses for not delivering Germany's gold.  And plenty of other bullion has been made available to solve those other pesky failures to deliver that seemed to be cropping up.

So one may presume that the bullion is in the mail to its rightful owners, in care of the Herr Weidmann at the Deutsche Bundesbank. The NY Fed sends its special regards.  Ich liebe dich.

Unless of course it has been rehypothecated to those barbarian buyers in Asia and the Mideast, yet again.

C'est la guerre des monnaies. Quelle dommage!

I have also included Nick's personal wave count for gold and silver, although I am not an adherent to the waves theory per se. And his long term confidence range for the gold bull market.

The stars seem to be aligning, with perhaps a few more antics and end of quarter shenanigans.  But boys will be boys, and they can't keep their hands off their toys.  So who can say what will happen next.  How about another round of bailouts?

Dubai: Not Enough Space On Flights To Carry Gold From West To East

Dubai is a hub for gold flowing from West to East.

But no gold for Germany can be found.

Could it be an unofficial bail-in? 

Curiouser and curiouser.

The National UAE
Gold rush 2013 style has Dubai scrambling
By James Doran
Jun 28, 2013

There is not enough space on airlines flying in to Dubai to meet the rapidly rising demand for physical gold in the emirate since the price plunged to record lows this week.

The price drop led to a rush of buyers for Dubai gold from the Middle East, South East Asia, the Balkans, Turkey and parts of Europe according to Tarek El Mdaka, the managing director of Kaloti Gold in Dubai.

"I cannot find a place for transporting gold on Emirates, on BA on Swiss Airlines this weekend," Mr El Mdaka said. "I am shipping in one-and-a-half to two tonnes of gold every day and it is going straight out...."

Read the rest of the story here.

Gold Daily And Silver Weekly Charts - End of Quarter, Stealth Confiscation

There is intraday commentary here.  I think it is important.

One remarkable thing about today's market action was the rebound in the miners even as gold underwent another waterfall bear raid of selling down to the 1200 level. 

While one can assign any motives they wish to the speculation about if and why there is a stealth confiscation happening, I do believe that the trigger for this was the request from Germany to have their sovereign gold returned, and the refusal of the custodian in New York to do so until 2020.

That is huge.  It is almost incomprehensible.

Any fails to deliver or difficulty in obtaining supply at the LBMA or the Comex is most likely a secondary effect to this request.

The scramble is on to find bullion, because a failure to deliver on a legitimate request from a sovereign nation to have their gold bullion returned at the insistence of their citizens, who actually own it, is stunning. I am surprised that more has not been made out of this, and that the German people took this so blithely.

A default on an exchange can be covered up with forced cash settlements. A rehypothecation of customer assets by an MF Global can be sectioned off and minimized with the right PR campaign, localized to the investors whose property has been misappropriated and will not be replaced, except in discounted cash.

But for a central bank to release another country's bullion to their cronies in the market and then be unable to replace it without roiling he markets and sending a shock into the financial system is almost unbelievable.

This is what has happened in my opinion, and why the 'dogs of the market' were released by the financiers on their own people to try and hide what must be an embarrassment of the first order.

And if you believe I am mistaken, or engaging in some obtuse conjecture, I have only one response.

Prove me wrong. Make the markets more transparent. And return Germany's gold.

"Truth never damaged a cause that is just."

Mohandas K. Gandhi

This has become a badly done shell game of rehypothecated assets that cannot be unwound except with much higher prices which are viewed as an embarrassment and an impairment to a few of the TBTF Banks.   Well, they have had plenty of opportunity to cover their massive short positions, and free up bullion from the big ETF.

The initial misdeed may have been minor, but as it always seems to happen, the coverup is growing like some gothic structure.  This is MF Global on steroids.

I think these fellows are playing for time, perhaps hoping for some 'big event' that will allow them to reset the markets and the rules of the game, for themselves and their cronies, once again.

Maybe there will be a rationale,  a fairy tale, that this was a way to pressure Iran, who was rumoured to be resorting to gold payments when their currency was blocked in the international payments system. The American people might believe this. I doubt the rest of the world will.

Show us the truth while they is still an honorable way out. Make the markets honest and transparent again. Stop stonewalling on the investigation of the silver market.  Fulfill your oaths.

Stand and deliver.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Back Up to the Trend Channel Top

The market has been rallying ever since it made that very precise hit on the Fibonacci retracement level that I pointed out just before it happened.

This is the end of the quarter, and so I would not be surprised to see the paint applied to the tape in liberal doses 'unless something happens.'

What else do they do in a kleptocracy.

Stand and Deliver: How Germany Disrupted the World's Gold Market

Someone asked, 'why would there be a desire to do a stealth confiscation of gold from the public holdings in ETFs and private stores through price manipulation?' Who could have been assigned the task of prying bullion out of the hands of the people, and for what conceivable reason? It appears to be happening, but why?

There are any number of possible reasons. Concerns that an innovative new round of QE and money creation might create a run on the gold price is one possibility. There should be little doubt in those who look into the evidence that central bankers are quite sensitive to gold and silver as alternative currencies and reflections of their own policy initiatives.

And that is quite possible. As I have pointed out, there is some precedent for it. In 1933 Franklin Roosevelt pulled back much of the publicly held gold in the US. And after this was done, the government revalued the gold from $20 to $35 overnight, and then used the gains to recapitalize the banking system.

Although this could happen again, it does not seem likely because it flies in the face of everything the central bank has achieved by putting the US on a purely fiat money regime, the last gold ties being severed by Nixon in the 1970s. They prefer to denigrate gold, even though they still hold it, and certainly speak about it quite a bit often through their intermediaries.

There is definitely a movement to revisit the Bretton Woods Agreement that established the dollar as the world's reserve currency. The BRICs, whose economic power is ascendant, are seeking to establish a new currency for global trade that is owned by no single central bank or entangled in the domestic policies of no single country. And they wish to add gold and possibly silver to that mix. And they are in the process of acquiring substantial reserves to accomplish it.

The Anglo-American banking cartel is resisting this movement with all their diplomatic and political might. One of the sensitivities of the recent spying scandal leaks is the concern that they may be trying to obtain intelligence that could be used in these negotiations which are ongoing, very quietly behind the scenes.

But one has to ask, 'what set off the firestorm of price manipulation against gold that started at the beginning of this year?' Unless one is a shill, or naïve about markets, the market operation to knock the price of gold, and also silver, down is fairly obvious and heavy handed. They are not even trying to hide it. Traders do not dump hundreds or even thousands of contracts at market in quiet periods with any other objective than to take the price down. It really is that simple.

My initial take on this was that this was part of the 'price-setting' negotiation for gold and silver in the basket of currencies that the BRICs are developing. But that seemed a bit thin, unless it was seen as a 'last stand' against including gold and silver by making the argument that they were too volatile.

So I looked back on the chart for what I saw was the pivotal moment, and then checked the news and tried to find some event that may have served as the impetus for it. And the truth of it was staring me right in the face.

How remarkable is it that Germany, at the urging of their citizens and despite the objections of their central banks, has requested the return of its sovereign gold from its custodial storage in New York? And that the Feds said, no. You can't have it, but we will be in position to return your own property in seven years time.

What was up with that? Venezuela had recently requested its gold to be returned, and that helped to push the price of gold up to its all time high, because the request had obviously been floated before it became public knowledge.

So why couldn't Germany have the return of its own property for seven years?

Think about this. And perhaps what is happening now will become more clear. It is all a part of the credibility trap, wherein past actions of officials must be hidden in order to protect careers and ensure the orderly functioning of the status quo, even to its own eventual detriment.

Oh this is wrong? This is some weird theory? Well I admit that part of the problem is that we are left to guess what the central banks and the markets are doing with our money and property far in excess of what might be expected in democratic societies. This is the failure of regulation and oversight, and the corrupting power of big money in politics.

But, ok. If this is just some distraction, then give Germany back its gold, in full, this year.

If you wish to prove your word is good and facts are straight, give Germany back its gold.

And if you wish to restore some level of confidence in the markets, make them more transparent and open so people can conduct their business efficiently and safely without fear of being cheated and defrauded at every turn.

If you wish the trust and respect of the world, redeem what you have pledged to hold in trust.   If you have taken some actions in the past that were made in good faith and for good reasons, but may have gone too far or turned out badly in retrospect, make good on them now.   The way to stem a scandal is to bring the truth to light.  It is never the initial act that brings down government, but the subsequent attempt at coverup that obtains a life of its own.

Do the right thing even if it is not convenient, because it is the right thing to do. 

Prove your full faith and credit to be worthy.  Fulfill your oaths.  Tear down the wall of secrecy that divides the people from their government. End this before it can go any further.

Stand and deliver.

"Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to device."

Sir Walter Scott

"We looked into the abyss if the gold price rose further. A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake. Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, manage it."

Sir Eddie George, Bank of England, in private conversation, September 1999

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Chart - Staggering Into the End of Quarter

I think we are nearing the end of this exercise in bullion inventory adjustment and price driving selling patterns that started in October.

While this most likely had its impetus in the official, in practical implementation it smells like Wall Street asset stripping to me.

That is another term for a stealth confiscation through price manipulation.

But why speculate. Let's see what happens.

Gold is still flowing from West to East.   There is no doubt about that.  

I just wonder how many of the Banks and their friends have used this policy opportunity to wet their beaks, and feather their own nests for the future.

Am I being too cynical?  Are you serious?  What market haven't they rigged lately?

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts

Stocks put in a rally today despite a sharply lower adjustment to 1Q GDP to 1.8% from 2.4%.

That is twenty five percent lower!

The Fed will not be ending QE anytime soon.

They may call it something else. They may change what they are buying and how they are buying it.

But the Fed is going to remain 'accommodative' for the time being.

The problem they face is that their money creation is going right into the banking system where it is being channeled into financial assets. They may seek to change that. Without serious cooperation from the dysfunctional Congress and the crony captured White House, it is hard to see how they can.

The Tax Free Tour

"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

George Orwell



h/t Stacy Herbert

Gold Has Had a 34% Correction

Here is a chart from Tom Fitzpatrick at King World News that I thought put this into some perspective. 

It is certainly worth reading his commentary, and I produce only his first chart with the rest to be seen at the source. With last night's selloff that correction is probably more like 35% or so but that does not alter the chart pattern.  He also shows his long term chart on silver.

I took the liberty of circling the secondary cup and handle that was the consolidation before that last big leg to the upside top. This is what I was referencing last night. I had not realized at that time it was a 34% top to bottom correction. I was setting down to do the longer term chart today when I came across this, and it is well done.

That secondary cup and handle consolidation marked a big resistance level that thereafter became big support after having been exceeded.

I am waiting to see what happens here.  This is a very 'purposeful' correction with selling that is blatantly timed to move prices lower in quiet markets.  But the overall timing matches with the new lows in deliverable bullion at the COMEX and the TOCOM.

Big corrections like this are not unusual in bull markets.  That huge correction in 2007-2008 cleared out the market and set up the move to the high.  

I do think that such corrections represent 'asset stripping' by powerful and lightly regulated insiders and traders who have a free hand to obtain assets on the cheap after manipulating prices lower, and then allowing them to rise again.  But who can say, except for someone like a regulator with access to the relevant information.

I do think that a turn, if it occurs, will coincide with the end of quarter mark to market.  Perhaps that is too cynical.  It is hard to imagine that one can be cynical enough after the serial frauds in market rigging we have seen in the past fifteen years.

These sorts of action disrupt normal market operations and allocation of capital that may inhibit future supply. But it is too much to think that these jokers would care as long as they are making money.  Traders and private equity managers are often short term predators, and the environment in markets has become almost pathological. 

One serious caveat is that since we are in a 'currency war,' at least to some peoples' thinking, one can only rely on market-oriented things like charts so much.  As I said, the selling is obviously purposeful.  And there are contentious issues being discussed by the world powers behind the scenes.

Source: King World News